Possibly thanks to six teams being on bye, Week 9 was mercifully a relatively quite one with respect to injuries. There are really only two quarterback situation updates this week:
- Panthers QB PJ Walker was benched for Baker Mayfield during an awful performance against the Bengals last week. He’ll start again next week against Atlanta, which probably says more about Mayfield than Walker. Walker will likely be playing for his job next week, though if he loses it, there’s a good chance Sam Darnold will be the beneficiary, not Mayfield.
- For Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill was a game-time decision last week with an ankle injury, and ended up sitting out again, giving Malik Willis the start. We don’t know Tannehill’s status for this week yet. Given how Willis has failed to impress, there’s no reason to think Tannehill won’t get his job back as soon as he’s healthy, and that might be this week.
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- Fantasy Football Week 9 Usage Report: Waiver Wire & Trade Advice
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Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice 
Week 10 D/ST Projections
We’re back to having four teams on bye (BAL, CIN, NE and NYJ), but this is another week where there are a handful of teams I feel really good about, and a lot that I don’t. The problem is the schedule – many of the best defenses happen to be facing pretty good offenses. Fortunately, many of the teams in my top two tiers have very low rostership, so it’s likely to not be all that hard to get a good defense. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | NO | @PIT | 41.5 | -2.5 | 19.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.12 | 7.48 | 36% |
| 2 | LV | IND | 42.5 | -6.5 | 18 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 7.23 | 15% |
| 3 | PHI | WAS | 44 | -11 | 16.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 7.11 | 97% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 4 | NYG | HOU | 39.5 | -6.5 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 7.04 | 6% |
| 5 | TEN | DEN | 39 | -3 | 18 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 7.04 | 20% |
| 6 | DAL | @GB | 43 | -5 | 19 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 6.69 | 88% |
| 7 | DEN | @TEN | 39 | 3 | 21 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 6.53 | 46% |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 8 | SF | LAC | 46.5 | -7 | 19.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 6.00 | 80% |
| 9 | KC | JAC | 50.5 | -9.5 | 20.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 6.00 | 78% |
| 10 | TB | SEA | 44.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.96 | 94% |
| 11 | BUF | MIN | 46.5 | -6.5 | 20 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.90 | 100% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 12 | DET | @CHI | 48.5 | 3 | 25.75 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.82 | 1% |
| 13 | HOU | @NYG | 39.5 | 6.5 | 23 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.81 | 1% |
| 14 | ATL | @CAR | 43.5 | -3 | 20.25 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 5.74 | 7% |
| 15 | MIA | CLE | 48.5 | -4 | 22.25 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 5.67 | 67% |
| 16 | LAR | ARI | 43.5 | -3 | 20.25 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.10 | 5.62 | 56% |
| 17 | CAR | ATL | 43.5 | 3 | 23.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.59 | 5% |
| 18 | PIT | NO | 41.5 | 2.5 | 22 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.52 | 12% |
| 19 | ARI | @LAR | 43.5 | 3 | 23.25 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.11 | 5.46 | 22% |
| 20 | GB | DAL | 43 | 5 | 24 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.27 | 65% |
| 21 | CHI | DET | 48.5 | -3 | 22.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 5.26 | 6% |
| 22 | SEA | @TB | 44.5 | 2.5 | 23.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.06 | 29% |
| 23 | MIN | @BUF | 46.5 | 6.5 | 26.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.04 | 84% |
| 24 | IND | @LV | 42.5 | 6.5 | 24.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.11 | 4.83 | 48% |
| 25 | LAC | @SF | 46.5 | 7 | 26.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 4.82 | 30% |
| 26 | WAS | @PHI | 44 | 11 | 27.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.22 | 5% |
| 27 | CLE | @MIA | 48.5 | 4 | 26.25 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 3.88 | 7% |
| 28 | JAC | @KC | 50.5 | 9.5 | 30 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 3.36 | 26% |
Matchups
- NO @ PIT: Five weeks in, Kenny Picket has developed into an excellent DST target. He has thrown just two passing touchdowns compared to 8 interceptions. His 2.4 sacks per game isn’t the highest, but that includes 6 against the Eagles in Week 8, so we know the opportunity is there for a good pass rush. Any competent defense is a good play against the Steelers, and the roughly average Saints are exactly that.
- LV vs IND: Speaking of developing quarterbacks, Sam Ehlinger has been pretty terrible in his two weeks as a starter. Last week he took an incredible 9 sacks from the Patriots. New England’s defense is quite a bit better than that of the Raiders, but an offense this bad can’t be ignored. Seeing what a lesser defense can do against Ehlinger will be a valuable data point in judging his viability as a DST target, and I intend to find out in my own lineups.
- PHI vs WAS: The undefeated Eagles have been one of the most valuable fantasy defenses – they’re third in scoring so far. They have a unique combination of a good actual defense and an excellent schedule, and the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders are yet another great matchup. The Eagles haven’t failed to finish in the top 10 against a below-average offense, and they won’t this week either.
- NYG vs HOU: Davis Mills has been a good, but not great, DST target all season, with three sacks being the norm, and three multi-interception games so far. The Giants defense is nothing special, but they aren’t bad enough for me to really doubt starting them in a matchup like this.
- TEN vs DEN: If I had told you a couple years ago that two of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL would be Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, you wouldn’t have believed me. But here we are. Wilson hasn’t had fewer than three sacks in a game since Week 1, and has led the Broncos to more than 20 points only twice, peaking with 23 in a Week 4 loss to the Raiders. The Titans happen to have the best run defense in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, and are competent against passing too.
- DAL @ GB: Last week, Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions and led the packers to just 9 points against the worst defense in the league, Detroit. This week, they get to face the best defense in the league. Dallas isn’t ranked higher because Rodgers still isn’t that error prone: he averages just two sacks per game, and that three-INT game was an anomaly – his first game with more than one. The Cowboys are a great play, just one without quite as much upside as they would have against a less experienced bad quarterback.
- DEN @ TEN: It’s not a huge surprise to see both sides of this game in my top 10, considering the game total of just 39, and the fact that Denver’s defense is way, way better than their offense. Ryan Tannehill has now missed two weeks with an ankle injury. This rank reflects an assumption that Malik Willis will start for a third week, but considering how bad Willis has been, I would expect Tannehill to play if at all possible. If Tannehill does play, I don’t think Denver would move down my ranks much. That’s mostly because the competition is weak from lower-ranked defenses, but Tannehill isn’t amazing either.
- SF vs LAC: It’s kind of unusual to see a defense facing the Chargers in my top 10. It’s also unusual to see them projected for fewer than 20 points – clearly Vegas doesn’t like their chances against one of the best Defenses in the league. Fantasy managers who have the 49ers have some tough decisions in their future thanks to a rough schedule. If SF can turn in a good result against LAC that will help a lot with feeling OK about using them against ARI, MIA and TB in the near future.
- KC vs JAC: There seems to be a pattern of highly-drafted QBs developing a boom-bust profile early in their careers, and showing up in the bottom half of my top 10 frequently. Daniel Jones and Joe Burrow have filled that role in the past, and this year it’s Trevor Lawrence. With this play, you’re hoping that the Jaguars end up chasing Kansas City’s offense and throwing the ball a lot. More throwing from the run-first Jags means more chances for mistakes, and a better likelihood of a bust game. But there is plenty of risk here too.
- TB vs SEA: Geno Smith and the Seahawks have been good lately, but it’s mostly been against below average defenses. The Buccaneers are not that. In the first two weeks of the season, they struggled to put up points against Denver and San Francisco, both similarly good defenses. If you’re playing Tampa Bay this week, it’s because you expect a return to that form.
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