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Let’s take a look at players to buy and sell this week. And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players.
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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the targets (38%, 35% target rate) in the Lions’ offense while running a route on 100% of the dropbacks. But the second-year WR finished just 4 catches for 55 yards on 9 targets. He also posted a ridiculous 84% air yards share as the only target Jared Goff was considering downfield. If a manager is souring after a “meh” performance, you need to be aggressive in targeting ASB.
Gabriel Davis was inefficient for the second straight week (2 for 33) despite decent volume (5 targets). But he saw 121 air yards and played 95% of the snaps. Those are the exact peripheral numbers to chase with the Bills’ upcoming schedule featuring the Vikings, Browns, and Lions. Buy low.
With Justin Fields doing it all in Week 9, not much was left over for the RBs. David Montgomery (14 for 36) and Khalil Herbert (7 for 23). Monty also earned 2 targets for a 70% opportunity share. Monty’s dominated the snaps for two straight weeks, so the coaching staff doesn’t seem to be embracing the shift to drinking the Herbert juice. Therefore, Montgomery (and Herbert for even less) is a cheap trade-for option with the Lions, Falcons, and Packers presenting 3 of their next 4 opponents. Herbert leads the Bears in rushing yards over the last four weeks (258 vs 218) despite 17 fewer carries than Montgomery.
Brian Robinson Jr. out-carried Antonio Gibson 13 to 11, but neither averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry nor scored. Both caught 2 passes. However, Gibson out-snapped Robinson for the second straight week (58% vs 44%) while running a route on 60% of dropbacks. With no timetable on the return of J.D. McKissic, I’d still be looking to buy AG with the backfield usage trending in his direction.
Courtland Sutton finished with just one catch on 4 targets for 13 yards in Week 8. But with favorable matchups coming up after bye week versus the Titans and Raiders, I still think Sutton is worth sending a lowball offer for. He may even get dropped. The Broncos No. 1 WR ranks as the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game and 7th in expected receiving TDs (4.5). Positive regression is coming.
Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert (9) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (9) split carries, drives, and snaps in Week 9, but Mostert scored on the ground. Wilson hit higher rushing yardage total (51 vs 26) and was more involved as a receiver with 3 targets and more routes run. He also scored through the air. It’s looking like a complete 50/50 split, with a potential slight lean towards Wilson considering it was his first game with the Dolphins and he earned a 52% opportunity share on more snaps played. But because Mostert still scored, I think he still has enough value to be traded before Week 10. That’s the move to make. And Wilson should be traded FOR because his role could continue to grow should the often-hurt Mostert go down again.
With Justin Fields doing it all in Week 9, not much was left over for the RBs. David Montgomery (14 for 36) and Khalil Herbert (7 for 23). Monty also earned 2 targets for a 70% opportunity share. Monty’s dominated the snaps for two straight weeks, so the coaching staff doesn’t seem to be embracing the shift to drinking the Herbert juice. Therefore, Montgomery (and Herbert for even less) is a cheap trade-for option with the Lions, Falcons, and Packers presenting 3 of their next 4 opponents. Herbert leads the Bears in rushing yards over the last four weeks (258 vs 218) despite 17 fewer carries than Montgomery.
I’d buy low on Wan’Dale Robinson. He went just 2 for 15 on 3 targets in Week 8 but saw his route participation increase from 78% to 85% from the week prior.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE)
Donovan Peoples-Jones ran more routes (100% route participation, 96% snap share) than Amari Cooper in Week 8 and was also productive with 81 receiving yards on 4 catches (4 targets, 20% target share). DPJ is a must-stash and cheap trade target for when Deshaun Watson returns. No WR has more receiving yards (417) without a TD score than Peoples-Jones this season.
The gap is narrowing. Leonard Fournette saw just one more carry than Rachaad White (8 vs 9) in Week 9 despite out-snapping him 62% to 35%. Fournette did finish with more targets (7 vs 3) and routes (35 vs 17). But White’s 11 touches were the highest they’ve been over the past three weeks. As Lombard Lenny continues to run inefficiently – 2.1 yards per carry in Week 9 – you want to get out from underneath him and gain exposure to White wherever possible.
Rookie Greg Dulcich led the Broncos in receiving yards (4-87) on 5 targets (114 air yards) while playing 80% of the snaps and running a route on 91% of dropbacks in Week 8. He’s a weekly starter after an impressive 3 games to start his NFL career. 17% target share on an average of 4 receptions for 61 receiving yards. It’s not by chance that Dulcich’s return has negatively correlated with Sutton’s dip in production. Get him cheap after the Broncos return from their bye week.
Michael Carter (12 for 76) and James Robinson (13 for 48) split carries in Week 9, but Carter played more snaps (52% vs 40%) and scored a rushing TD. Robinson out-targeted Carter (2 vs 1) and caught a receiving TD. They tied in routes, and each had a carry inside the 10-yard line. The majority of Robinson’s rushing production came in the 4th quarter as the Jets were looking to close out the game (6 carries for 35 yards). And considering this was just Robinson’s second game with New York and he still had a solid workload despite entering the game with a game-time decision knee injury, he’d be a buy for me in trades this week. He is already starting to take over the early-down work, and he has a longer track record of success, being a fantasy RB1 in back-to-back seasons since he entered the league. He is likely cheaper to acquire than Carter and has a divine playoff schedule. Lions, Jaguars (revenge game), and Seahawks. Wheels up for Robinson in games they can potentially win and keep close with their strong defense.
CeeDee Lamb went 5-77-1 on 7 targets in Week 8, but tight end Dalton Schultz also saw seven targets turning out 6 for 75 (27% target share). He’s back on the TE1 radar with Dak Prescott under center. No less than 49 receiving yards and 5 catches for Schultz in his 3 starts with Prescott this season. Buy coming off the bye week.
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Players to Sell
Tom Brady attempted 58 passes in Week 9, so all of the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers have inflated target numbers between Mike Evans (11, 5-40), Chris Godwin (10, 7-36), Scott Miller (8, 7-53) and Cade Otton (6, 5-68). Godwin has been completely peppered with targets over the last four weeks, totaling 46 targets (11.5 per game), but the production has not followed. He’s averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per game (WR35) and scored zero TDs. He’s an interesting sell candidate if you can get a strong return based on those just looking at his volume numbers and not his 50th-ranked 1.32 yards per route run the last four weeks.
A.J. Dillon mustered 11 carries for 34 yards plus 4 targets, 2 catches, and 10 receiving yards in relief of Aaron Jones, who left Week 9 with an ankle injury. Reports have been optimistic about Jones’ ankle and his availability to play this week, but let’s be real here. Ankle injuries have nuked the fantasy values of several RBs this season, and the Packers’ offense is hardly one that is creating a favorable offensive environment for its players. Dillon will force his way into touches as the healthier of the 2 RBs, making Jones a MUST-SELL before this gets ugly.
The gap is narrowing. Leonard Fournette saw just one more carry than Rachaad White (8 vs 9) in Week 9 despite out-snapping him 62% to 35%. Fournette did finish with more targets (7 vs 3) and routes (35 vs 17). But White’s 11 touches were the highest they’ve been over the past three weeks. As Lombard Lenny continues to run inefficiently – 2.1 yards per carry in Week 9 – you want to get out from underneath him and gain exposure to White wherever possible.
Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert (9) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (9) split carries, drives, and snaps in Week 9, but Mostert scored on the ground. Wilson hit higher rushing yardage total (51 vs 26) and was more involved as a receiver with 3 targets and more routes run. He also scored through the air. It’s looking like a complete 50/50 split, with a potential slight lean towards Wilson considering it was his first game with the Dolphins and he earned a 52% opportunity share on more snaps played. But because Mostert still scored, I think he still has enough value to be traded before Week 10. That’s the move to make.
Terry McLaurin led the Commanders with nine targets in Week 9 but finished with just 5 for 56 on a 35% target share. Curtis Samuel‘s volume remained low (4 targets), but he scored and led with 65 receiving yards. Samuel has just a 15% target share in the last two games (4 per game) and 6 total receptions for 115 yards (19.1 yards per catch). Considering his late dependence on big plays, the potential return of Jahan Dotson, and a brutal matchup versus the Eagles in Week 10…I’d be selling off Samuel to the highest bidder.
Sell Mecole Hardman. He has been running hot with TDs in his last 2 games, but his scoring won’t maintain with his role in the offense. He ran a route in just 58% of Patrick Mahomes‘ dropbacks and saw just a 13% target share in Week 9.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
