The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints

• BAL -2, O/U 47
• Ravens vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The pace of this game will be pulled down by the Ravens, who are 30th in neutral pace. The Saints are average, sitting at 16th.
• Both offenses are built upon their run games, as Baltimore is sixth in neutral rushing rate, immediately followed by the Saints at seventh.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: After starting the season on fire, Jackson hasn’t been the same player with his thin receiving weapon cabinet banged up. He has managed QB1 performances in two of his last three games (QB11, QB9), so we’re not overreacting and dropping him from the QB1 ranks. Jackson’s rushing ability keeps him in the QB1 conversation always. He’s first in rushing yards, sixth in red zone carries, and third in carries per game among quarterbacks. His passing numbers aren’t nearly as pretty. Jackson is 24th in PFF passing grade, 21st in adjusted completion rate, and 23rd in yards per attempt. Since Week 5, the banged-up Saints’ secondary is 16th in passing yards per game, 19th in EPA per drop back, and 18th in explosive pass rate.

Andy Dalton: it’s not crazy to say that Dalton has been the Geno Smith light of the Big Easy. Dalton is fifth in PFF passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, 14th in big-time throw rate, and 11th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Dalton is the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, Baltimore is 17th in passing yards per game, 20th in explosive pass rate, and 20th in EPA per dropback. Dalton is a QB2 with the upside to finish as a borderline QB1.

Running Backs

Week 8

Gus Edwards: Edwards is dealing with a hamstring injury and was banged up entering last week’s game. Edwards hasn’t practiced so far this week. I doubt he plays.

Kenyan Drake: Since Week 6, Drake has averaged 11 touches and 66.3 total yards with RB7, RB62, and RB14 fantasy finishes. Drake is 56th in yards after contact per attempt, but he’s been hitting big runs ranking sixth in breakaway rate (minimum 15 carries). In Week 8, he was the passing down back as well, so if Edwards is out (which I’m projecting), Drake could flirt with workhorse potential with Hill mixing in lightly. New Orleans hasn’t been the elite run defense of yesteryear in 2022. They are 14th in rushing yards per game, 15th in explosive run rate, 18th in adjusted line yards, and 23rd in open field yards. Drake is a low-end RB2 assuming Edwards is out.

Justice Hill: Over his last two games, Hill has averaged 4.5 rushes and 27 total yards with 26% of the snaps played. If Edwards is out, Hill could see a small bump in work and flirt with possible double-digit touches. Since Week 4, he’s been explosive anytime he touches the ball, with 4.25 yards after contact or higher in each game. The Ravens don’t seem inclined to give him the majority of the work despite his efficiency with his limited touches. This regulates Hill to dart throw RB4 status if Edwards is sidelined.

Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been ripping the league up since he returned in Week 5. Over the last four games, he’s averaged 24.8 touches and 145.3 total yards. He’s been the RB8, RB10, RB13, and RB1 in fantasy. Those weekly scores have bumped him up to RB7 in fantasy points per game. Kamara is fourth in yards per route run sporting a 22.2% Target share which leads all running backs. Kamara is 30th in evaded tackles, 23rd in breakaway runs, and 11th in yards created per touch. Baltimore has been tough against ground games, ranking fifth in rushing yards per game, fourth in explosive run rate, and ninth in open field yards. However, Kamara can get it down via the passing against a defense that’s given up the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards to running backs. Kamara is a weekly RB1.

Wide Receivers

Devin Duvernay: In the two games with Bateman sidelined earlier this season, Duvernay handled a 20.7% Target share and 30% air yard share with 1.26 yards per route run. Duvernay saw two red zone targets in that short span. He had WR26 and WR78 fantasy scores. Overall, Duvernay is 20th in PFF receiving grade and 43rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets), running 71% of his routes on the perimeter. Duvernay is a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman has already been ruled out for Week 9 and is out for the rest of the season. 

Demarcus Robinson: Last week, Robinson saw a 23.5% Target share with 21.3% of the team’s air yards (2.78 yards per route run). This was Robinson’s first game with more than 27 yards receiving. Robinson has been a fit bit cardio champion dating back to his days with Kansas City. There are dice roll prayer plays and fool’s gold fantasy fakes. This doesn’t feel like a stat line worth chasing, considering the large sample we have of Robinson being a ghost in better offensive situations. Don’t play Robinson.

Michael Thomas: Thomas is likely done for the season. 

Jarvis Landry: Landry has managed limited practices so far this week. Landry has a 15.2% Target share and three deep targets in his four games played. If he can suit up, he’ll run about 80% of his routes against the weak link for Baltimore in Damarion Williams (71% catch rate, 129.2 passer rating). Landry will be a WR3/4 if he can make it back in Week 9.

Chris Olave: New Orleans has a future star in the making with Chris Olave. He’s the WR17 in fantasy points per game as a rookie, with a 26.4% Target share and 41.4% air-yard share (fourth). He’s been elite, ranking ninth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He leads the NFL in deep targets while also seeing seven red zone targets (25th). He has a difficult draw with two very good corners this week. He’ll run about 73% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (70.6% catch rate, 65.3 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (66.7% catch rate, 101.2 passer rating). Olave is a top-20 fantasy wideout.

Marquez Callaway: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. I’ll update Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith‘s Week 9 prospects on Friday when we have preliminary practice reports to dice up.

Tre’Quan Smith: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. I’ll update Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith‘s Week 9 prospects on Friday when we have preliminary practice reports to dice up. (Deja Vu)

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: After leaving last week’s game with a shoulder issue, we can likely count him out of Week 9. Andrews hasn’t practiced this week. 

Isaiah Likely: Last week, stepping into the main tight end role, Likely soaked up a 20.6% Target share ending with seven targets, 77 receiving yards, a score, and 2.2 yards per route run. He was the TE2 for Week 8. Overall Likely is 18th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a low-end TE1 if Andrews is out against the Saints’ no-fly zone for tight ends. New Orleans is first in DVOA; they have surrendered the fourth-lowest yards per reception and zero touchdowns to tight ends.

Juwan Johnson: Johnson has a 12.6% Target share with five red zone targets (12th) this season. His route run rate has bounced around the map with as high as 79% in some weeks or as low as 47% in others. The varying usage has made Johnson volatile and a matchup-based streamer only. The matchup is good, so if you’re in a pickle and need a tight end. Consider Johnson for your starting lineup. Baltimore is 21st in DVOA against tight ends with the seventh-highest catch rate and sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans

• PHI -11.5, O/U 44
• Eagles vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game isn’t anything special from a pace perspective. Philly is 19th in neutral pace, while Houston is 25th.
• The Eagles are 13th in positive script rushing rate and lead the NFL in positive game script play volume. The Texans will throw once down as they are tenth in negative script passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts has been amazing this season. He’s the QB2 in fantasy points per game behind only Josh Allen. Hurts is second in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Houston has allowed the second-lowest passing touchdown rate this season while ranking 15th in yards per attempt. Don’t think for a second that they are a tough matchup, though, as the Texans are also 17th in passing yards per game and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed. Since Week 5, Houston’s corners have played zone on approximately 85% of their coverage snaps. Hurts should shred their coverage as he’s third in completion rate and second in passer rating against zone. Hurts is a top-three quarterback weekly.

Davis Mills: Mills should remain on the bench or waiver wire this week. Mills is the QB31 in fantasy points per game, averaging a paltry 12.1 points. Even in Superflex, this is an attainable number by a variety of positional options. There’s no rosie contrarian picture to paint for Mills here. The Eagles are an elite defense, no matter how you slice it. Philadelphia has allowed the eighth-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Their secondary has permitted the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate and second-lowest yards per attempt. If all of that wasn’t enough, the pass rush is ranked ninth in pressure rate. Don’t play Mills.

Running Backs

Week 1-8

Miles Sanders: Sanders has averaged 17.9 touches and 82.0 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. He’s 30th in yards after contact per attempt, 18th in missed tackles forced, and 35th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Sanders has arrived at the running back Shangri-La aka the Houston Texans. Houston has given up the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. They have conceded the second-most running back rushing touchdowns, the third-highest rush success rate, and the highest explosive run rate.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell remains a breather back and stash only. He’s averaged 4.1 touches and 18.4 total yards per game. He hasn’t played at least 30% of the snaps since Week 3. Gainwell hasn’t seen any work in the red zone since Week 4. Gainwell only makes sense if you’re being contrarian in showdown DFS and playing both him and Sanders.

Dameon Pierce: Pierce is the RB14 in fantasy overall, averaging 22.6 touches and 104.2 total yards since Week 3. He’s a tackle-breaking machine, ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt, second in missed tackles forced, and fifth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Pierce gets a run defense that’s softened and will be without Jordan Davis. Since Week 4, the Eagles’ front has allowed the fifth-highest rush success rate while sitting at 28th in EPA per rush and 23rd in explosive run rate. Pierce saw a 57.1% route run rate in Week 8, so even if (when) HOU is trailing, he won’t get game scripted out. Pierce is a low-end RB1.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Regression struck in Week 8 as Brown completely scorched the earth against Pittsburgh. Brown is third in PFF, receiving grade behind only Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs, and fourth in yards per route run behind only Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, and Diggs. He’s the WR7 in fantasy points per game. Brown is top-six in Target share (fifth, 31.2%), receiving yards per game (sixth, 94.1), and air yard share (second, 45.6%). Brown is a WR1 that will run about 75% of his routes against former teammate Steven Nelson (57.1% catch rate, 70.1 passer rating) and Derek Stingley Jr. (68.2% catch rate, 86.9 passer rating). Brown can succeed against Houston’s zone defense, but he’s not the Eagles’ top option against the coverage. Brown has seen 35.6% of his target volume against zone, ranking 24th in yards per route run and 37th in PFF receiving grade against the coverage type (minimum ten zone targets).

DeVonta Smith: Smith will be integral to Philadelphia’s attack against Houston’s zone coverage. Smith is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL at dicing up zone. Smith has seen 65.3% of his target volume against zone, ranking 13th in yards per route run and ninth in PFF receiving grade (minimum ten zone targets). Smith is the WR29 in fantasy with a 25.4% Target share and 27.7% air yard share. He’ll run about 79% of his routes against Nelson and Stingley as a strong WR2.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has slowed down this season. He’s the WR46 in fantasy points per game with a 22.3% Target share and 28.7% air-yard share. He’s 67th in PFF receiving grade and 59th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Cooks will square off against a heavy zone coverage squad in Philly. This season he’s 35th in PFF receiving grade and 33rd in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets), with 52.9% of his target volume coming against zone. Cooks is a WR3/4 that will run about 74% of his routes against Darius Slay (47.2% catch rate, 37.2 passer rating) and James Bradberry (40% catch rate, 39.8 passer rating). This corner duo has been unstoppable in 2022.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Goedert is a weekly TE1. He’s the TE8 in fantasy with the fifth-best Target share and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The biggest issue Goedert faces is his lack of high-value usage compared to the other positions’ other elites. Goedert hasn’t seen an endzone target yet, and he’s 13th in weighted opportunity (minimum ten targets). Houston has held tight ends in check this season, ranking eighth in DVOA with the eighth-fewest receiving yards and 12th-lowest fantasy points per game allowed.

HOU TEs: There’s no viable fantasy tight end in Houston. Last week they split the routes between Brevin Jordan, O.J. Howard, and Jordan Akins, with each handling no more than 45% of the routes.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO