The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• LVR -2.5, O/U 48
• Raiders vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game should have a healthy volume of plays as Jacksonville is third in neutral pace, and the Raiders are 17th.
• The Raiders, despite their struggles, continue to throw a bunch in close games ranking eighth in neutral passing rate. Jacksonville believes in a balanced approach (18th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr is the QB22 in fantasy points per game and a QB2 in Week 9. Carr has found his way inside the top 12 only once in the last four weeks. He’s struggled as he’s 26th in PFF passing grade, 25th in adjusted completion rate, and 24th in yards per attempt. Since Week 5, Jacksonville is 23rd in passing yards per game, 27th in EPA per drop back, and 21st in explosive pass rate allowed. Overall they have given up the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdown rate.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is also a QB2 option. In the six games, he hasn’t rushed for a touchdown, he’s only finished inside the top 12 twice. Lawrence is still operating in a game manager role. He’s 35th in PFF passing grade, 27th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 5, the Raiders are 27th in passing yards per game and 30th in EPA per dropback, but they have held passing attacks to the 12th-lowest explosive pass rate. The Raiders have given up the highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL, so Lawrence has some theoretical touchdown upside. The problem is Jacksonville Is seventh in red zone rushing rate, so unless they veer from that design, the touchdown upside is simply hope.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB5 in fantasy as he gobbles up the fifth-highest snap share and second-highest opportunity share. He’s tenth in weighted opportunities. Jacobs has averaged 20.4 touches and 118.3 total yards. Jacobs is tenth in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced, and ninth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Jacksonville is a middle of the road matchup. Over their last three games, they are 18th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed. They have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Some of that is due to their vulnerability to pass-catching backs. They have allowed the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to backs. Jacobs remains a strong RB1.

Travis Etienne: Over the last two games, Etienne has been freed. He’s a full-time bell cow averaging nearly 80% of snaps with 21 touches and 140.5 total yards. He finished as the RB8 and RB7 in fantasy. Etienne is 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, tenth in breakaway rate, and 25th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He’s an RB1 again this week against Vegas. The Raiders are tenth in rushing yards per game, ninth in EPA per rush, and eighth in explosive run rate, but they are ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. This comes from Las Vegas’s inability to stop backs through the air. The Raiders are 31st in DVOA, giving up the third-most receptions, third-most receiving yards, and seventh-highest yards per reception. Etienne has a 9.8% Target share and is 20th in yards per route run. He has three receptions in half of his games this season.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams was upgraded to full practices on Thursday and Friday. Shake off the dud game. Adams is still a WR1. Even after the down outing, Adams is seventh in Target share, ninth in targets, and 14th in air yard share. He’s garnered elite high-value usage, ranking seventh in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Adams is 16th in PFF receiving grade and 21st in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Adams will run about 70% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (58.5% catch rate, 70.6 passer rating) and Tre Herndon (55.6% catch rate, 137.5 passer rating).

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has been such a disappointment this season. The highest he’s finished in any week is WR43. He’s handled a 15.3% Target share with only one red zone target and two red zone targets. He’s a WR6 better off kicked to the waiver wire at this point.

Mack Hollins: Hollins was limited in practice all week (heel). He doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. Hollins has a 16.6% Target share (55th) and has served as the team’s deep threat, ranking 18th in deep targets and 13th in aDOT. He’s also drawn eight red zone targets (20th). Hollins is a WR4 that will run about half of his routes against the burnable Tre Herndon.

Christian Kirk: Kirk has rebounded from a slump with top-36 finishes in two of his last three games. He’s the WR24 in fantasy points per game with four top 20 fantasy weeks. Kirk has a 22.9% Target share with eight deep targets (29th) and nine red zone looks (tenth). He’s 43rd in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run, tied with Chris Godwin (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 73% of his routes against Amik Robertson (75% catch rate, 119.2 passer rating) as a strong WR2.

Zay Jones: Jones has been a low-ceiling volume play. He has a 20.6% Target share and six red zone targets (30th) with one touchdown this season. He has three top 36 wide receiver games, but only one as a WR2 or better. He’s a WR4/5 that will run about 64% of his routes against Rock Ya-Sin (53.1% catch rate, 70.6 passer rating) and Anthony Averett (88.9% catch rate, 155.8 passer rating).

Marvin Jones: Marvin Jones‘ contributions are more in the locker room than on the field these days. He has one game with more than 60 receiving yards. He has garnered only a 16.8% Target share turning it into 1.19 yards per route run. Jones is best left on your bench or booted to the waiver wire at this juncture.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller hasn’t played since Week 5. He logged limited practices all week and has been listed as questionable. Waller has finished as a TE1 in half of his full games played. He’s seen a 14.0% Target share with five deep targets and six red zone targets. The downfield volume and red zone looks both rank top-eight among tight ends which is impressive since he’s played only four full games. He’s 19th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Jacksonville is 27th in DVOA against tight ends giving up the fourth-highest yards per reception. Waller is a TE1 if he plays.

Evan Engram: Since Week 5, Engram has found his legs in this offense with a 21.7% Target share averaging 4.8 receptions and 57.8 receiving yards. Over that span, he’s tenth in yards per route run and sixth in YAC per reception (minimum ten targets). He’s been a top-ten tight end in three of his last four games. He’s second among tight ends in deep targets, but he still only has three red zone targets. Vegas is 13th in receiving yards per game and third in receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Engram is a top-ten tight end this week.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -2, O/U 49
• Seahawks vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will have the best play volume of Week 9. Arizona is first in neutral pace, while Seattle is 11th.
• The pace will help pump up the passing volume for two run-balanced offenses. Seattle is 14th in neutral passing rate, while Arizona is 15th.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith is the QB8 in fantasy as he continues to excel. Smith is third in PFF passing grade, eighth in passing yards, third in big-time throw rate and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). However, Smith has hit a recent skid in fantasy, as he hasn’t finished inside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks since Week 5 (QB19, QB15, QB13). The last time these two teams played, Smith had zero passing touchdowns with 6.4 yards per attempt. Since Week 4, the Cardinals are 16th in passing yards per game, eighth-best in EPA per drop back, and 13th in explosive pass rate. Arizona continues to blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Smith has been sturdy against the blitz, ranking 10th in PFF passing grade, eighth in big-time throw rate, and fifth in blitz-adjusted completion rate. It won’t be a walk in the park, but Smith can succeed here.

Kyler Murray: Murray has looked like a different quarterback with his alpha back in the huddle. Since Week 7, Murray has been 12th in PFF passing grade, 14th in adjusted completion rate, 12th in yards per attempt, and third (tied) in passing touchdowns. Over the last two games, he’s been the QB10 and QB3 in fantasy, cresting 7.0 yards per attempt each week. Seattle remains a beatable pass defense, ranking 21st in passing yards per game, 24th in EPA per drop back, and 24th in explosive pass rate. The Achilles heel for both of these defenses is YAC. Arizona leads the NFL in YAC allowed while Seattle is nipping at their heels in second. Each team has tackling woes, as Seattle is fifth in missed tackles, and Arizona is third. Murray is a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker: Since taking over as the starter, Walker has been the RB5 in fantasy. Walker continues to perform like a stud, ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in missed tackles forced, second in breakaway rate, and 14th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Since Week 6, while he’s only drawn a 5.6% Target share, he’s garnered a 43.1% route run rate. Last week with Travis Homer back, it was still at 46.3%. Since Week 5, the Cardinals are 23rd in rushing yards per game and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Arizona remains 32nd in DVOA against receiving backs with the ninth-most receiving yards and eighth-highest yards per reception allowed. Walker is a top-five running back.

James Conner: Conner snuck in limited practices all week (ribs). He’s been designated as a game-time decision. In the three games Conner has played close to his full complement of snaps, he’s handled 50% of the rushing attempts, seen an 11.3% Target share (4.7 targets per game), and had a 39.6% route run rate. This has amounted to 16.3 touches and 63 total yards per game with two top 36 running back games (RB15, RB27). Since Week 6, the Seahawks have transformed from a defense that we were targeting with running backs to one to avoid. Over their last three games, one of which includes Eno Benjamin’s flop, the Seahawks have held Benjamin, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley to a combined 121 rushing yards and 2.7 yards per carry. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, second-lowest EPA per rush, and the sixth-lowest explosive run rate. Over their last three games they are first in run defense DVOA. Conner is an RB3 that could be touchdown or bust.

Eno Benjamin: Since Week 6 as the Cardinals starter, Benjamin has averaged 15.7 touches and 74.3 total yards playing at least 73% of the snaps weekly. If Conner is out, Benjamin is a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3. If Conner plays, Benjamin is a low-end flex play. In Weeks 1-5, Benjamin averaged 8.4 touches and 46.6 total yards with three top-36 weeks (RB33, RB34, RB23).

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett: Lockett opened the week limited in practice (hamstring/ribs), but he practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and carries no injury designation into this game. Lockett is the WR19 this year with a 25.2% Target share (22nd) and 35.4% air yard share (16th). He flopped in the last meeting with the Cardinals with two receptions (five targets) and 17 receiving yards. I’m going back to the well with Lockett. Since Week 4, Arizona’s outside corners have operated in zone on 61% of their snaps. Lockett has seen 60.3% of his target volume against zone, ranking eighth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run against zone (minimum ten zone targets). Lockett will run about half of his routes against Byron Murphy (since Week 4: 60.6% catch rate, 99.8 passer rating). Lockett is s strong WR2 with WR1 upside this week.

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf was limited to open the week before practicing in full on Thursday and Friday. Metcalf is the WR31 in fantasy with four top 20 fantasy wideout games on his 2022 resume (WR18, WR7, WR13, WR15). Metcalf has a 25.6% Target share (19th) and 36.7% air yard share (12th). He’s also top seven in deep targets (13) and red zone targets (ten). He’ll run about half of his routes against Marco Wilson (since Week 4: 65.6% catch rate, 91.1 passer rating). Metcalf has seen 48.4% of his target volume against zone, ranking 36th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum ten zone targets). Metcalf is a WR2. Look for Smith to lean heavier on Lockett this week.

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has been a monster since his return. He’s the WR1 in fantasy points per game with 2.3 more PPR points per game above Stefon Diggs. He’s first in Target share (37.5%), target rate per route run (37.0%), and air yard share (57.2%). Hopkins is 15th in PFF receiving grade and second in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). In two short games, he’s already seen three deep targets and two red zone targets. Hopkins will run about 75% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (55.6% catch rate, 50.2 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (53.7% catch rate, 76.2 passer rating). Good luck slowing Hopkins down, guys.

Rondale Moore: Moore played 51% of his snaps from the slot last week. It equaled another strong game with eight targets, seven grabs, and 92 receiving yards (one touchdown). Since his return, Moore is the WR38 in fantasy points per game with three games as a WR3 or better. He’s handled an 18.6% Target share with five red zone targets. Moore will be essential to Arizona’s Week 9 YAC attack. Moore is third in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel and Rashod Bateman (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 56% of his routes against Coby Bryant (66.7% catch rate, 110.3 passer rating). Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Robbie Anderson: Anderson only drew three targets last week while running six routes splitting the outside role opposite of Hopkins with A.J. Green. Green is only getting in cardio at this point, as he drew one target on 20 routes. Anderson is an unplayable low-end stash until he assumes a full-time role in this offense.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: Flip a coin. Pick your poison. The Seahawks love to infuriate us with their tight end rotation of Fant and Will Dissly. Over the last three games, Fant has a 13.5% Target share with a 56.9% route run rate. Dissly has a 7.9% Target share with a 49.5% route run rate. Each player has drawn one red zone target. One of them will likely spike the football for six points in Week 9, and half of the fantasy community will curse their TVs because they streamed the wrong guy. Arizona remains Christmas come early for tight ends ranking 31st in DVOA. The Cardinals have given up the most receptions, second-most receiving yards, and most receiving touchdowns (tied with NE) to tight ends.

Zach Ertz: Ertz has taken a back seat in the passing offense to Hopkins and Moore over the last two games with a 13.3% Target share. He’s averaged five targets, three receptions, and 27.5 receiving yards. Ertz is a TE1 this week though because the matchup is too good to pass up. Seattle is 28th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to the position.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -3, O/U 42.5
• Rams vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Rams have continued to pass at a high rate, ranking fifth in neutral passing rate, but their pace has gone into the dumpster (31st in neutral pace).
• Tampa Bay continues to do what they do as they are fourth in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is a QB2 until further notice. He’s been above QB17 in fantasy scoring only once this season (vs. ATL). Stafford is 25th in PFF passing grade, 12th in adjusted completion rate, 24th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in passing touchdowns (tied with Jacoby Brissett). The Buccaneers are sixth in passing yards per game, EPA per drop back, and explosive pass rate.

Tom Brady: Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the frustrated spiderman gif. Each has struggled to get their offenses on track this season due to no fault of their own. Brady is in the midst of a cold streak with three consecutive weeks as the QB16 or lower. He’s the QB19 in fantasy points per game this season. Although, if you look at his quarterback play, there hasn’t been any drop-off. He’s ninth in PFF passing grade, eighth in big-time throw rate, and 11th in accuracy rating. Brady looks primed for another QB2 performance against a secondary that’s 11th in passing yards per game, first in explosive pass rate, and giving up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 8

Ronnie Rivers: This backfield is an utter mess. Staring at the running back usage for Los Angeles in Week 8, I don’t blame Cam Akers for wanting out. Really Sean McVay? Malcolm Brown and Ronnie Rivers are getting carries in Week 8. Wow. The Rams rushing attack has hit a new low. Rivers played 36% of the snaps finishing with 12 touches and 36 total yards. Rivers has 2.11 yards after contact per attempt and a 30.2 PFF elusive rating with zero missed tackles forced. With the backfield split in three different ways and each back running behind an offensive line that’s bottom-three in every line yard metric I value, none of these players are more than disgusting low-end flex plays.

Darrell Henderson: Henderson out-snapped (41%) Rivers finishing with six touches and 30 total yards. Henderson also eclipsed Rivers’ route run rate by 8.4%. If you’re desperate and looking for hope, the narrative you tell yourself when looking for a play in this backfield is maybe Henderson reprises his Week 6 role (71% snaps, 14 touches, 52 yards) as the clear leader of this backfield. Outside of that, this entire running back room is a stay away. Henderson is a vomit-inducing RB4. It’s a shame because you can actually run against Tampa Bay this season. The Buccaneers are 24th in rushing yards per game, 21st in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed.

Cam Akers: As if we needed another reason to avoid this backfield, Akers could be active this week. I’ll update this as we get more news. Akers has rejoined the team, and Sean McVay and company are mulling over what to do with Akers this week.

Weeks 4-8

Leonard Fournette: Fournette is the RB9 in fantasy points per game. He’s accomplished this by vacuuming as much volume as his body can handle. He’s sixth in snap share, eighth in opportunity share, and fifth in weighted opportunities. Fournetts is eighth in red zone touches averaged 16.6 touches and 75.6 total yards. He’s 24th in juke rate, 11th in evaded tackles, 13th in Target share, and 16th in yards per route run. His explosiveness has diminished as he’s 28th in breakaway run rate, but he can still rattle off chunk gains. Since Week 5, the Rams run defense has softened to a middling matchup ranking 14th in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed.. Fournette also has a window to be productive with his checkdowns against a defense that’s tenth in yards per reception to running backs. Fournette is a volume-based RB1.

Rachaad White: White is a low-end PPR flex play. He’s averaged 7.4 touches and 39.2 total yards since Week 4. Over the last four weeks without a touchdown score he’s been the RB41, RB38, RB48, and RB40. With a minimal red zone role, it’s difficult to hope for him to get into the end zone and be anything more. He’s best viewed as a bench stash.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Kupp didn’t practice on Wednesday (ankle) before he logged a limited practice and Thursday and was a full-go on Friday. Unless we get the word, Kupp will be limited; you play him. This doesn’t have to be rocket science. Kupp is the WR2 in fantasy sitting near the top of the wide receiver leaderboard in nearly every category. I could rattle off a bunch of Kupp stats here, but the reality is you are never sitting Kupp as long as he has two functioning legs and is deemed a full-go.

Allen Robinson: Sadly if you’re considering starting Robinson at this point in the season, your team is probably in big trouble or way past doomed. Robinson is the WR62 in fantasy points per game. Robinson truthers have been given a small glimmer of hope over the last two weeks with his WR13 and WR41 finishes. It’s fools gold, though. Robinson has a 14.2% Target share and has done nothing with his 12 red zone targets (fourth-most). He has a 0.84 yards per route run mark this season. Just for context Miles Boykin and David Sills sit at 0.85 yards per route run. Robinson will run about 67% of his routes against Carlton Davis (59.2% catch rate, 97.7 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (48.6% catch rate, 50.3 passer rating). Robinson is a low-end WR4/WR5.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson is a deep league stash only. He returned to the lineup last week, running 23 cardio routes without drawing a target. This offense is in shambles. Jefferson won’t be the Rams’ savior.

Mike Evans: Evans began the week with a limited practice (ankle). He doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game.  Despite the Bucs’ struggles, Evans is the WR10 in fantasy, drawing a 20.4% Target share, 35.4% air-yard share (15th), 16 deep targets (third-most), and nine red zone looks (tenth) from Brady. Despite all of the yards he’s left on the field, Evans is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s a WR1/high-end WR2 weekly. Evans will run about 72% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (64% catch rate, 108.8 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (65.7% catch rate, 105.3 passer rating).

Chris Godwin: In Godwin’s four full games played, he’s been a volume magnet soaking up a 26.1% Target share (11.8 targets per game) with a 23.5% air yard share (1.66 yards per route run). He’s been the WR28, WR21, WR30, and WR26 in those contests (zero touchdowns). Godwin has seven red zone targets. He’s a WR1/high-end WR2 this week. Ramsey will rotate to the slot at times. When it’s not Ramsey, Godwin will match up with Troy Hill (70% catch rate, 102.9 passer rating).

Russell Gage: Gage has been ruled out (hamstring).

Julio Jones: Jones opened the week with a DNP (knee). He practiced in full Thursday and Friday. In Week 8, Jones drew a 9.5% Target share while only seeing a 48.9% route run rate. Until we see his routes jump up, he’s a must-sit.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee is the TE12 in fantasy with a monstrous 22.1% Target share (fourth) and five red zone targets (12th). Higbee began the season playing fantastic football, but he’s slowly regressed to his usual ways. He’s 27th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s a TE1 weekly, solely based on volume. The Bucs are 18th in DVOA, allowing the fourth-highest catch rate and 14th-highest yards per reception.

Cade Otton: Cade Otton will draw the start again after Cameron Brate has been ruled out (neck). In his three starts, Otton has a 12.1% Target share with a 77.3% route run rate and five red zone targets. The Rams are 20th in DVOA, allowing the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Los Angeles has also faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL and held the position to the fourth-lowest catch rate. Otton is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -12.5, O/U 45.5
• Titans vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each of these offenses continues to feed their best options. The Titans are built upon the back of King Henry, ranking 32nd in neutral pace and third in neutral rushing rate. The Chiefs are 12th in neutral pace letting Patrick Mahomes chuck it at the third-highest rate in close games.

Quarterbacks

Malik Willis: Ryan Tannehill opened the week with a limited practice (ankle) before sitting out Thursday and returning to a limited status on Friday. They better hope Tannehill can get back under center this week because they have no shot against the Chiefs if he can’t. Last week the team only let Willis attempt ten passes (5.5 yards per attempt). Those numbers won’t cut it if you’re hoping to keep pace with Mahomes. Tannehill has been listed as questionable. Kansas City is a favorable matchup for quarterbacks ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are 30th in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 23rd in explosive pass rate. Willis or Tannehill, depending on who starts, is a QB2.

Patrick Mahomes: If you have Mahomes on your team, you’re starting him. #Analysis. Seriously though, Mahomes is the QB3 in fantasy with only one game this season outside of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks (QB13). He’s fourth in PFF passing grade, sixth in big-time throw rate, and first in passing touchdowns (minimum 50 dropbacks). He should crush a Titans’ secondary that’s 24th in passing yards per game, allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns, and ranks 32nd in DVOA against deep passing. Mahomes is 11th in deep ball completion rate.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: Tennessee’s ball-toting goliath is the RB3 in fantasy averaging 25.7 touches and 127.9 total yards. Henry is tenth in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, sixth in weighted opportunity, and fifth in red zone touches. He’s gotten into a groove and found his form now, ranking tenth in evaded tackles, third in breakaway runs, and eighth in yards created. Henry is 47th in route participation but has an 11.9% Target share with 2.03 yards per route run. Kansas City has been tough against the run, ranking third in rushing yards per game, 14th in EPA per rush, and second in explosive run rate. Their soft underbelly is against running backs in the passing game. They are 25th in DVOA with the most receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Henry has three games this season with at least three receptions and 30 receiving yards. If Todd Downing is wise (questionable at best), he’ll scheme up some screens for the big fella. Henry is a top-five running back.

Week 7

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: In Week 7, Edwards-Helaire played a season-low 27% of the snaps with only six carries for 32 yards (one touchdown). He hasn’t seen a target in his last two games. It’ll be interesting to see what Kansas City does coming out of the bye with their running back rotation, but Edwards-Helaire looks on the wrong end of the usage trend. He still handled all the red zone work, but that could also change in Week 9. Tennessee hasn’t given an inch to running backs all season. They rank top-two in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate. Edwards-Helaire has seen his rushing metrics slip as he’s 36th in juke rate, 41st in yards created per touch, and 33rd in evaded tackles. Edwards-Helaire is a touchdown-or-bust RB3/4.

Isiah Pacheco: In Week 7, Pacheco played a season-high 30% of the snaps with eight rushing attempts for 43 yards. He was still a zero in the passing game as McKinnon soaked up the Target share and routes. Pacheco is 27th in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in breakaway run rate in his limited playing time. Pacheco hasn’t seen a red zone touch since Week 4. With a rough match-up on the ground and his role up in the air, Pacheco is a deep league flex or RB4 at best.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Tennessee loves aging wide receivers past their prime. This year’s model is Robert Woods. He’s the WR67 in fantasy with a 22.5% Target share, three red zone targets (62nd), and three deep targets (62nd). If Willis draws the start, there’s no way you can move Woods into a lineup. I’ll update his Week 9 prospects on Friday when I have a better read on the quarterback situation. If Willis starts, there’ll be no volume to sustain anyone outside of maybe Henry in this passing game.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: If Smith-Schuster keeps this up, I’ll own the L for my off-season shade around him. Over his last two games, he’s eclipsed 113 receiving yards in each game as the WR7 and WR4 in fantasy. He’s now the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 19.3% Target share, nine red zone targets (tenth), and 1.95 fantasy points per target (25th). Smith-Schuster is 34th in PFF receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Smith-Schuster is a WR2 that’ll run about 57% of his routes against Kristian Fulton (56.3% catch rate, 87.9 passer rating) and Terrance Mitchell (60% catch rate, 102.3 passer rating).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has finished with 90 or more receiving yards in two of his last three games. He’s second on the team in deep targets while leading the team in deep receiving yards. In Week 7, his aDOT was 26.3, which is a massive change from the 10.0-13.6 range he was in for the five previous weeks. Kansas City toyed with Valdes-Scantling as an intermediate threat earlier in the season, but it looks like they are transitioning him back to his previous role in Green Bay as a downfield threat. This could spell the death of the Titans’ secondary in Week 9, as they are one of the worst in the league at defending against the deep ball. Valdes-Scantling has a 15.3% Target share and 24.6% air yard share with five deep and red zone targets. Valdes-Scantling will run about 62% of his routes against Fulton and Mitchell as an upside WR3.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Smash Kelce. Smash. Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy with a 24.1% Target share (third), 26.5% target per route run rate (fifth), and 22.7% air yard share (third). He’s fifth in deep targets and first in red zone targets. He’s not just first in red zone targets among tight ends. He leads the NFL in red zone targets, just to clarify. Among wide receivers, he’d be the WR6 in fantasy points per game immediately behind Justin Jefferson and ahead of Ja’Marr Chase. Tennessee is 22nd in DVOA against tight ends ranking 13th in receiving yards and fifth in yards per reception.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO