The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

• GB -3.5, O/U 49.5
• Packers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The play volume in this game will suffer as Green Bay is 27th in neutral pace, and Detroit is 22nd.
• The Packers have always been a team that loves to pass despite their cement shoes. Green Bay is ninth in neutral passing rate. This is converse to how Detroit likes to operate as they are 12th in rushing rate in close games.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Double. Aaron Rodgers could double the number of QB1 performances he’s turned in this fantasy season in Week 9. Week 7 was the first and only time this year that Rodgers has cracked the top-12 fantasy quarterback realm. Looking at Rodgers’ passing efficiency numbers weekly, it’s easy to see why he’s frustrated. Rodgers is seventh in PFF passing grade, fourth in big-time throw rate, and 13th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Rodgers should be smiling this week after a matchup with Detroit. The Lions are first in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdown rate, and bottom-four in passing yards per game, and explosive pass rate allowed. Rodgers is a QB1.

Jared Goff: The Lions should lean on their ground game this week. Over the last three weeks, Green Bay has found its stride in pass defense. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held quarterbacks to the third-lowest completion rate, eighth-lowest passer rating, sixth-lowest passing yards per game, and sixth-lowest explosive pass rate. Goff might be the QB12 in fantasy, but his numbers scream that his fantasy value isn’t nearly as good as his real-life quarterback play. He’s 22nd in PFF passing grade, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and has the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Packers are fifth in pressure rate. Goff is 21st in pressured passer rating and 33rd in pressured completion rate. Goff is a mid-QB2.

Running Backs

Weeks 7-8

Aaron Jones: Jones has absolutely destroyed the Lions. In his last three games against Detroit, he averaged 20.6 touches, 142 total yards, and scored seven touchdowns. Yes, previous matchups spanning multiple seasons can be noisy, but let’s be honest the Lions’ defense has been wretched for a long time, and this season is no different. Jones has taken this backfield back over since Week 7. He’s still one of the best running backs in the NFL as the RB12 in fantasy. Jones is 14th in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in PFF’s elusive rating, eighth in breakaway runs and 23rd in yards per route run. Detroit has bled out the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They are bottom-three in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. Jones is a top-three running back play.

A.J. Dillon: Over the last two weeks, Dillon has averaged 36% of snaps averaging 7.5 touches and 39 total yards. Dillon losing work to Jones as the season has progressed shouldn’t shock anyone. Dillon is 46th in yards per touch, 38th in breakaway run rate, and 69th in fantasy points per opportunity. Dillon has shown some life over the last three games with at least 3.00 yards after contact per attempt in two of three games, and his first 15+ yard carries of the season. With a wonderful matchup inbound to boost his efficiency and the bye week upon us, Dillon is an RB2/3.

Week 8

Jamaal Williams: Williams has averaged 15.9 touches and 74.4 total yards this season as the RB15 in fantasy. His role hasn’t changed much with Swift active or out of the lineup. He’s ranged from 33-49% of the snaps still working in tandem with another back. Williams will retain his red zone role as he’s fifth in red zone touches this season. He’s been woefully inefficient with his work this season. Williams is 57th in yards created per touch, 35th in yards per touch, and outside the top 40 backs in juke rate and evaded tackles. Green Bay has continued to struggle against all things running backs. They are 28th in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. The Packers have surrendered the tenth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Williams is an RB2.

D’Andre Swift: Well, lesson learned. Moving forward, the Detroit Lions’ practice reports must be taken with a grain of salt. Swift apparently wasn’t 100% last week and it doesn’t sound like he is this week either. Swift might not be 100% for the rest of the season. The above quote isn’t comforting. The matchup we know is sweet, but Swift’s snap count is impossible to project and the red zone usage has been in Williams’ favor. Swift is a volatile RB3. If you have better options, explore them. Swift played 50% of snaps last week with eight touches, 33 total yards, and a 52.6% route rate. He got into the endzone which helped him finish as the RB18, but he easily could have tanked without the touchdown.

Wide Receivers

Romeo Doubs: Doubs has been up and down, with more down this season. He’s seen an 18.1% Target share with 22.7% of the team’s air yards. He has seven red zone targets this season but only one in the last three games. Last week’s WR19 showing was his first game as a WR2 or better since Week 4. Doubs is 92nd in PFF receiving grade and 74th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Since Week 6, the Lions have deployed their outside corners in zone coverage on 67-69% of their snaps. While Doubs hasn’t been highly effective, he’s still second on the team in zone targets, with 57.4% of his target volume against zone. Doubs will run about 76% of his routes against Jeffrey Okudah (71.9% catch rate, 99.6 passer rating) and Amani Oruwariye (78.4% catch rate, 143.8 passer rating). Doubs is a WR3.

Allen Lazard: Lazard has been named a game-time decision. If he plays, it’s risky because he could easily be on a snap count with on usage in high-leverage situations like the red zone. Lazard is 15th in deep targets and 25th in red zone targets (seven in six games). Lazard is a risky WR4/5 that could easily be a touchdown or bust receiving option. It’s also in his range of outcomes to blow this projection out of the water if his playing time is more than what I’m projecting.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: In his four healthy games this season, St. Brown has commanded a 29.4% Target share and 21% team air yard share averaging 10.5 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 80.5 receiving yards. Against all wide receivers with at least 15 targets in his healthy games, St. Brown has a 71.9 PFF receiving grade and 2.35 yards per route run. Those numbers would rank 41st and 11th, respectively, overall this year. Despite the limited playing time, he’s 30th in red zone targets (six). St. Brown is a WR1 that will run about 60% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (69.7% catch rate, 85.0 passer rating).

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds has a 17.4% Target share and 26.6% air yard share this season as the Lions’ field stretcher. He’s 18th in deep targets (ten) while also drawing a ton of work in the red zone (sixth, ten targets). He’s 19th in aDOT. He’ll run about 67% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (53.8% catch rate, 58.3 passer rating) and Eric Stokes (84% catch rate, 125.8 passer rating). Reynolds is a WR3/4. Reynolds has been listed as doubtful for this week.

Kalif Raymond: Since Week 5, Raymond has been a full-time starter with an 18.5% Target share and 26.6% air yard share. He’s seen eight deep targets (29th), and just two red zone looks. Over the last three games, he’s averaged 4.3 receptions and 65.3 receiving yards with WR44, WR20, and WR40 fantasy finishes. He’ll run about 55% of his routes against Alexander and Stokes as a WR4.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is the TE15 in fantasy points per game with a 15.5% Target share (16th) and 58.3% route participation (26th). His usage has massively ticked up over the last three games. Against Buffalo, he handled an 84% route rate, and in Week 6 against the Jets, he sat at 69%. Tonyan is 30th in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run while drawing five red zone targets (12th). Tonyan should smash this week. The Lions are 32nd in DVOA against the tight end position. Detroit has allowed the fifth-highest catch rate, ninth-most receiving yards, seventh-highest yards per reception, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Tonyan is a top-shelf TE1 in Week 9.

Full Season

Brock Wright: Detroit has stated they want to get a good look at James Mitchell after the trade of T.J. Hockenson, but the previous usage indicates Brock Wright could get the first crack at the job. Wright is an interesting TE2 to pick up and stash. He’s surprisingly athletic, with a 77th percentile speed score. The Packers are not the matchup to get cute and start Wright, though. Green Bay has held tight ends the fewest receiving yards in the NFL, second-fewest receptions, and sixth-lowest yards per reception.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

• NE -5.5, O/U 40.5
• Colts vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week with Ehlinger under center, the Colts crawled at 30 seconds per snap with a 53.7% neutral rushing rate mark. That would rank 29th in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate mark for the season.
• No frills or surprises with New England, as they are 26th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Sam Ehlinger: In his first start Ehlinger was the QB28 in fantasy, completing 73.9% of his passes with 8.7 yards per attempt and zero touchdowns. Among 44 quarterbacks (minimum 50 dropbacks), he’s 34th in PFF passing grade, tenth in adjusted completion rate, 18th in aDOT, and second in turnover-worthy play rate behind only Taylor Heinicke. The Patriots have yielded the second-lowest success rate per dropback while ranking 19th in passing yards per game and permitting the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback. Ehlinger remains a low-end QB2.

Mac Jones: Jones is another low-end QB2. He’s only mustered one game this season above QB19 in fantasy. The Colts continue their run funnel ways as they have firmly clamped down on the opposition through the air. Since Week 4, they have allowed the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback, fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and eighth-lowest explosive pass rate. This feels like a gross game that Coach Bill could limit the passing volume and feed his ground game.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor has been officially ruled out for Week 9. 

Week 6

Deon Jackson: Deon McCaffrey will return to the starting lineup this week as the Colts’ lead back. In Week 6, Jackson played 67% of the snaps with 22 touches and 121 total yards as the RB1 in fantasy. He’s 69th in yards after contact per attempt and 45th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). With Hines out of the picture, Jackson should operate as the workhorse. There are concerns about what his passing game share will look like, though. In Ehlinger’s first start, he fed only a 13% Target share to the backfield. That’s a far cry from the 17.2% Target share that Jackson saw the last time he was the starter. The Patriots are 22nd in rushing yards per game and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. New England is also 20th in DVOA against receiving backs, with the eighth-most receiving yards and second-highest yards per reception allowed to running backs. Jackson is an RB2.

Week 8

Rhamondre Stevenson: Last week even with Damien Harris worked back in more, Stevenson played 63% of the snaps seeing 23 touches turning them into 143 total yards as the RB10 in fantasy. Stevenson has the passing downs on lockdown as he amassed a 25% Target share last week. Stevenson has been a weekly highlight reel of jukes, broken tackles, and monster runs. He’s 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating, and 12th in missed tackles forced (minimum 15 carries). His electric pass game role will come in quite handy this week as well. He’s 15th in routes run, ninth in yards per route run, sixth in Target share, and top-seven in receptions and receiving yards. Since Week 4, the Colts are 23rd in rushing yards per game, 19th in explosive run rate, and 12th in yards per carry. Stevenson should get fed through the air against a defense that’s 22nd in DVOA against backs in the passing game. Indy has allowed the seventh-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards, and ninth-highest yard per reception to the running back position. Stevenson is an RB1.

Damien Harris: Last week Harris saw his snap count rise back to previous levels with 41% of the snaps played with 13 touches and 52 total yards. Harris has remained an effective rusher ranking sixth in juke rate and 13th in evaded tackles. He factored into the red zone work last week, and with 13 red zone touches (35th) this season, he should also in Week 9. Harris is an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets into the endzone. Harris has been listed as questionable (illness), so this situation needs to be watched. This cements Stevenson probably as the clear lead again this week, though.

Wide Receivers

Micheal Pittman: In the first game with Ehlinger under center, Pittman saw a 39.1% Target share (nine targets) with 30.2% of the team’s air yards with 1.96 yards per route run. Ehlinger knows where his bread needs to get buttered if he’s going to have a shot at decent stat lines weekly. Pittman was the WR33 despite not getting into the endzone. Pittman is 39th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Since Week 5, the Patriots have incorporated more zone coverage, with 55-62% of their starting corners’ snaps spent in zone. Pittman has seen 52.4% of his target volume against zone where he ranks 24th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run (minimum ten zone targets). Pittman is a WR3 that will run about 75% of his routes against the Patriots’ committee approach on the outside. Last week New England mixed in Jalen Mills (64.7% catch rate, 87.9 passer rating), Jack Jones (51.9% catch rate, 46.2 passer rating), and Jonathan Jones (45.5% catch rate, 68.2 passer rating) on the perimeter.

Parris Campbell: Last week, Campbell only saw an 8.7% Target share with 1.6% of the team’s air yards, as his aDOT was 1.5 yards. This week more work could gravitate back to him. Campbell has seen 69.4% of his target volume against zone coverage. He’ll run about 78% of his routes against Myles Bryant (70.0% catch rate, 98.6 passer rating). Campbell only has four red zone targets this season (47th). Despite having the best corner matchup for the Colts’ Campbell is just a WR4. His lack of red zone equity pushes him down the board, but there’s also an upside scenario for his short-area targets. The Patriots are 12th in YAC and third in missed tackles, so I expect Campbell will have plenty of opportunities to create with the ball in his hands.

Alec Pierce: Last week, Pierce saw a 21.7% Target share, but the team got cute again and cut his route run rate to 70%. Pierce was the downfield threat with an aDOT of 20 and 60% of his target volume arising on deep targets. This isn’t the role to target against a Patriots’ secondary that’s fifth in DVOA against deep passing. Pierce will run about 92% of his routes on the perimeter.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers continues to be an underrated stud in fantasy. Meyers is the WR11 in fantasy with a 25.6% Target share (20th) and 31.9% air yard share (22nd). He’s seen eight deep targets (29th) and recent inclusion in the red zone, with all three of his red zone targets for the season coming last week. Meyers is 14th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Despite my concerns about the passing volume, Meyers is a WR2. He’ll run about 72% of his routes against Kenny Moore (since Week 4, 90% catch rate, 112.5 passer rating).

Tyquan Thornton: Thornton is best left on the bench this week. Over his last two games, he’s only seen 3.5 targets per game, averaging one reception and 16 receiving yards. Those numbers aren’t likely to improve running about 83% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (59.6% catch rate, 75.0 passer rating) and Isaiah Rodgers (2021: 62.3% catch rate, 72.2 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Kylen Granson: Granson is a desperation touchdown or bust streamer. He’s only seen an 8.5% Target share and three red zone looks this season, but he leads the Colts’ tight end committee in targets (19) and percentage of targets (70%) against zone coverage. The Patriots have yielded the fifth-lowest catch rate to tight ends, but they are 12th in yards per reception and first in receiving touchdowns.

Hunter Henry: Last week, the Patriots, with a healthier Jonnu Smith, went back to a rotation at tight end. Henry saw a 54.5% route run rate, while Smith accounted for 52.3%. In the games in which they have both been active, Henry has led the way with a 54% route run rate, but Smith has outpaced him in Target share (10.6% vs. 8%). Henry is another touchdown or bust tight end streamer/TE2 this week. The Colts are 24th in DVOA against tight ends, with the 12th-most receptions and 11th-most receiving yards allowed.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

• BUF -11, O/U 46
• Bills vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bills’ pace has dropped some over the weeks as they now sit at 15th in neutral pace, but they continue to throw at a top-five clip in close games (fourth). This week they likely add to their positive game script play volume, which is fourth-highest in the NFL. Even when they are crushing opponents, they pass on 56.4% of their plays which is the eighth-highest.
• Even when they trail, the Jets don’t trust Wilson to throw it. Since Week 4 in negative game script New York is 20th in passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen is incredible. He remains the QB1 in fantasy and has finished as a QB1 in every game played this season. Last week’s QB11 showing was his first game outside of the top five. Allen is fifth in accuracy rating and third in fantasy points per dropback. He’s also top four in passing yards, yards per attempt, and passing touchdowns. When he’s not tossing dimes, he’s getting it done with his legs. Allen is fourth in rushing yards, fourth in red zone carries per game, and sixth in rushing attempts among quarterbacks. The Jets offer a stiff challenge as they concede the tenth-fewest passing yards per game, rank ninth in EPA per drop back, and have held quarterbacks to the third-lowest explosive pass rate. Oh, and New York is third in pressure rate. Allen has no problems with rushers in his face as he’s first in PFF pressured passing grade, first in pressured yards per attempt, and third in big-time throw rate when under pressure (minimum 25 dropbacks). Allen is the QB1 overall weekly.

Zach Wilson: Wilson finished as a QB1 for just the second time this season in Week 8, and he did it the ugliest way possible. He completed only 48.8% of his passes with two picks against New England. Wilson is a bottom-feeder QB2 this week. The Bills are 12th in success rate per dropback and top-ten in passing yards per game, EPA per drop back, and explosive pass rate. The Bills are ninth in sacks and 13th in quarterback knockdowns. Wilson has crumbled against pressure, ranking 40th in PFF pressured passing grade with the highest pressured turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks).

Running Backs

Devin Singletary: Singletary is the RB26 in fantasy this season, averaging 13.4 touches and 72.2 total yards. With only one touchdown this season, his value has come from having the market cornered on Buffalo running back usage. He’s ninth in snap share, 14th opportunity share, and 21st in weighted opportunity. Well, that stranglehold is now a slippery slope. While Nyheim Hines doesn’t figure to amass a large share of the work in his first game, the worry is still present and real. Singletary is a scary RB3 in a bad matchup without touchdowns or efficiency to buoy his value. Singletary hasn’t made the most of his touches this season, ranking 33rd in yards created per touch, 45th in juke rate, and 48th in fantasy points per opportunity. He’s 33rd in evaded tackles and 26th in breakaway run rate. The Jets have given up the 12th fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have held rushers to the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game and the tenth-lowest EPA per rush.

Nyheim Hines: Hines is a PPR stash only for Week 9. With only a short amount of time to learn the playbook and his main role and responsibilities coming on passing downs, the Bills are unlikely to feed him snaps. Add in that New York is ninth in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, surrendering the 13th-lowest yards per reception and only one receiving touchdown. There’s no reason to play Hines this week.

Week 8

Michael Carter: Last week, with James Robinson on the team, Carter played 56% of the snaps with 11 touches that he turned into 61 total yards. This season Carter has been unable to reproduce last year’s efficiency as he ranks 68th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in PFF’s elusive rating. While his early down issues have been a problem, he’s still stellar in the passing game, ranking 13th in yards per route run with an 11.2% Target share (21st). Carter should retain the passing down role even as Robinson assimilates further into this offense. Carter is an RB2/3 this week, taking on the Bills. The only hope the Jets have in this game is to run the ball effectively and play solid defense. Since Week 4, the Bills have been more pliable on the ground, ranking 16th in rushing yards per game, 18th in EPA per rush, and 22nd in explosive run rate. Carter should still be peppered with check-downs, as Wilson will be under duress.

James Robinson: Last week, Robinson played 22% of the snaps with five carries for 17 yards. He was a zero in the passing game. Robinson likely assumes more of the early down work this week with possibly some routes depending on how the team feels about his grasp of the pass protections. As much of a sophomore disappointment as Carter has been, Robinson hasn’t been much (if any) better with elusiveness. Robinson is 52nd in yards after contact per attempt and 64th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). He hasn’t forced a missed tackle since Week 5 and hasn’t recorded a run of 15+ yards since Week 3. Robinson is an RB3/4.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Is this a tough on-paper matchup for Diggs? Sure. Does that really matter for a receiver of his caliber? Not in the slightest. Diggs is the WR1 in fantasy, with an elite quarterback feeding him elite-level volume. Diggs is tenth in Target share (28.7%) and 20th in air yard share (34.1%). He’s 15th in deep targets and second in red zone looks. Diggs is second in PFF receiving grade to only Tyreek Hill and third in yards per route run behind Hill and DeAndre Hopkins (minimum 15 targets). Diggs will run about 61% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (44.2% catch rate, 51.2 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (52.5% catch rate, 56.8 passer rating). Diggs has also seen 31.4% of his target volume via the slot, so he’ll get plenty of Michael Carter (77.1% catch rate, 86.6 passer rating) as well. Diggs is an unquestioned top-three wide receiver weekly.

Gabriel Davis: Since Week 5, Davis has handled a 19.2% Target share with 33.4% of the team’s air yards. Davis has a 0.50 weighted opportunity and 2.95 yards per route run over that span. Davis has been the long-distance home run threat with nine deep targets. He’s only seen two looks inside the 20-yard line. The Jets are ninth in DVOA against deep passing, so it could be a quiet week for Davis. He’ll run about 90% of his routes against Gardner and Reed. Davis is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Isaiah McKenzie: McKenzie has never grown from being a part-time player this season. His route run rate has never crested 59%, and the target per route rate (20.3%, 56th) hasn’t been enough to make up for the lack of routes. McKenzie’s six red zone targets (30th) and slot role (74% slot) makes him an interesting WR4/5 type with some upside. He’ll see Carter in coverage for most of the day.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR37 in fantasy. Last week’s six grabs and 115-yard receiving performance as the WR15 was nice. Week 8 was the first time he had run more than 25 routes since Week 4. The Jets have shackled the passing attack as they attempted to cover up for Zach Wilson‘s shortcomings. The game is another outing where the Jets likely don’t have a choice. They will have to throw the ball to catch up if the Bills are throttling them. Wilson has a 21.2% Target share (33rd) and a 26.7% target per route run rate (20th). He’s tenth among wide receivers with nine red zone targets. Wilson is a rising star, as he is 17th in PFF’s receiving grade and 33rd in yards per route run. He’ll run about 67% of his routes on the outside against Dane Jackson (58.6% catch rate, 58.7 passer rating) and Kaiir Elam (78.6% catch rate, 83.3 passer rating). Wilson is a WR3.

Corey Davis: Davis has been ruled out (knee).

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: In his last three games played, Knox has a 12.4% Target share with a 70.7% route run rate, three red zone targets, and 0.99 yards per route run. Knox is a TE2. The Jets have given up the sixth-most receptions to tight ends and the seventh-most receiving yards, but they are only one of three teams yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end.

Tyler Conklin: Conklin’s last game (ten targets) has puffed up his numbers over the last three games as he has a 24.3% Target share which has only amounted to six targets per game. Outside of that game, his numbers since Week 6 are rather pedestrian, with a 64.2% route run rate and yards per route run below 1.4 in games. Conklin is a TE2 with a brutal matchup. Buffalo is second in DVOA against tight ends with zero touchdowns allowed and the fifth-lowest yards per reception given up.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders

• MIN -3, O/U 43.5
• Vikings vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Vikings continue to move quickly (sixth in neutral pace) and throw a ton (seventh in neutral passing rate).
• Since Taylor Heinicke has been the starter, Washington is 19th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Washington has been playing better defense over the last three weeks, so this won’t be the cakewalk for Cousins that many envision. Since Week 5, the Commanders are tenth in passing yards per game and eighth in EPA per dropback. While they are playing better, they still have some warts, like ranking 19th in explosive pass rate over that stretch. Cousins has played well this season, ranking 12th in PFF passing grade and eighth in adjusted completion rate as the QB9 in fantasy. The problem he’s had, though, that won’t go away and is likely to crop back up in Week 9 is against pressure. Washington is fourth in pressure rate. Cousins was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks last week, completing only 46.2% of his passes with 4.8 yards per attempt with rushers in his face. Cousins is a low-end QB1 with some worries.

Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a superb streaming quarterback for Week 9 and a borderline QB1. In his two starts this season, he’s finished as QB13 and QB8. Last week he flashed the rushing upside that we know he possesses with 29 yards and a score. His real-life play hasn’t been fantastic, as he’s 41st in PFF passing grade and 32nd in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Against the Vikings’ secondary, it might not matter at all. Minnesota is 29th in passing yards per game, 32nd in explosive pass rate, and ninth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The Vikings are also 21st in pressure rate, so Heinicke should have time in the pocket. If he can play point guard well, he’ll walk away with a new pair of Jordans in Vikings colors. Minnesota is 32nd in DVOA against short passing with the ninth-most YAC allowed.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook: Cook is the RB13 in fantasy averaging 18.7 touches and 95.8 total yards per game. He’s top-ten in snap share and opportunity share. His efficiency numbers have climbed in recent weeks, as he’s logged 3.00 yards after contact per attempt in each of his last three games. Cook is 18th in evaded tackles and breakaway runs. He’ll need every bit of his burst this week against a tough Washington front. The Commanders are 17th in rushing yards per game, but they are also holding backs to the third-lowest EPA per rush and fifth-lowest explosive run rate. They are ninth in adjusted line yards and fifth in second-level yards. Cook could see some more pass-game work here with great success. Washington is 26th in DVOA against receiving backs, with the third-highest yards per reception and the most receiving touchdowns allowed. Cook is an RB1.

Alexander Mattison: Mattison is a desperation flex, but better still, seen only as a high-end handcuff. He’s averaged 6.1 touches and 27.9 total yards. He has three top-36 finishes in the weeks he’s scored a touchdown. With 11 red zone touches (36th), he has enough touchdown equity in this offense to think he could find paydirt in any week.

Weeks 7-8

Brian Robinson: After out-snapping Gibson in back-to-back games, Robinson lost the snap and volume battle in Week 8 to Gibson. He saw his snaps dip to 25% with zero usage in the passing game. He had eight carries that he turned into 20 yards. Robinson is an early down grinder that isn’t talented enough to get it done in bad matchups. He’s 63rd in yards after contact per attempt and 61st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). With only the rushing equity to float his value, he’s a touchdown-or-bust RB4. Minnesota has been a stonewall against rushing attacks. Minnesota ranks eighth in rushing yards per game, 12th in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed. They have held running backs to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game.

Antonio Gibson: Since Brian Robinson‘s return Gibson has averaged 11.6 touches and 69 total yards per game. He’s seen a 17.6% Target share (five targets per game), averaging 33% of the snaps. In the part-time role, Gibson has seen his explosive play-making ability return. Since Week 6 among 43 running backs (minimum 15 carries), he’s 13th in yards after contact per attempt, 13th in breakaway run rate, and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating. He has finished as the RB24, RB16, and RB11. Gibson is an RB3 with a rough assignment in Week 9. McKissic getting ruled out bumps up his ceiling and floor. 

J.D. McKissic: McKissic has been ruled out. 

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Justin Jefferson is an unstoppable force as long as Cousins can deliver him the ball. Jefferson is the WR4 in fantasy with a 29.5% Target share (sixth), 26.6% target per route run rate (21st), and 36.4% air yard share (13th). He’s tenth in PFF receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Jefferson is a top-shelf WR1 that will run about 66% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (66.7’% catch rate, 130.2 passer rating) and Benjamin St.-Juste (50% catch rate, 81.3 passer rating).

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR34 in fantasy that’s finished as a top 36 receiver in four of seven games. He’s only crested 70 receiving yards in one game. Thielen is showing his age this season with a 20.7% Target share and living off red zone work (nine targets, tenth). His 1.27 yards per route run are the lowest of his career. He has only two games this season with yards per route run marks above 1.60. Thielen is a WR3 that will run about 65% of his routes against Fuller and St.-Juste.

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is a WR6 with a 12.9% Target share. He’s WR68 in fantasy points per game with four red zone targets and only one week finishing better than WR46.

Terry McLaurin: Apparently, all McLaurin needed this season was Heinicke back under center. Over the last two games, he’s seen a 25.8% Target share averaging eight targets and 93 receiving yards with 2.78 yards per route run. McLaurin was the WR11 and WR17 in those weeks. McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 77% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (48.5% catch rate, 68 passer rating) and Cameron Dantzler (78.6% catch rate, 118.8 passer rating). He’ll run about 52% of his routes against Dantzler, specifically, who he can cook. McLaurin has speed to burn, and Dantzler and his 4.6 speed can’t hang.

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has seen a 19.4% Target share with 1.81 yards per route run over the last two weeks. He finished as the WR25 and WR38 in fantasy scoring surpassing 50 receiving yards in each game. Samuel has been an integral part of the Washington red zone offense with eight red zone targets (20th). Samuel is an upside WR3 that will run about 70% of his routes against the slot turnstile named Chandon Sullivan (82.9% catch rate, 120.4 passer rating).

Jahan Dotson: Dotson has been ruled out.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: I’ll update Hockenson’s outlook on Friday as we get more news about his potential role. However, Washington has been stingy against tight ends, as they rank third in DVOA. The Commanders have held tight ends to the 11th-lowest yards per reception, third-lowest catch rate, and only one receiving touchdown. Currently, it’s tough to count on Hockenson as anything more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.

Logan Thomas: Thomas returned to the lineup running 17 routes (51.5% route rate) with zero targets. He’s seen a 10.2% Target share this season and a 66.0% route participation rate, so if his health is better this week, we could see it climb. Thomas is a matchup-based streamer this week. Minnesota is 30th in DVOA against tight ends. The Vikings have allowed the third-highest catch rate, ninth-highest yards per reception, and sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO