The Primer is presented to you by Bettle, an awesome new fantasy sports platform. At Bettle, we know you read The Primer every week to make sure your fantasy team is as good as it can be. Bettle’s arena lets you put that hard work to good use – just import your lineup and challenge other teams across our entire network to weekly matches for real money. Sign up today and get $25 added to your account to get you started in the Arena!

Sometimes it’s good to stop and smell the roses. Life can become routine chaos. As we are married to the daily rituals and the rat race. Stop and take a deep breath.

Enjoy your favorite song in the car before walking into work.
(Singing My Chemical Romance as loud as I possibly can will never get old)

Savor the witty & random things your kids do.
(While they simultaneously stomp on your last nerve)

Tell your significant other thank you for the small kindnesses.
(During the football season, I’m powered by Red Bull and sour candy. Thanks, Liz. Love ya.)

Yes, I know you were expecting an intro discussing bye-weeks, fantasy lineups, etc. Don’t worry. We’ll get to the football. It’s important to slow down, at least for a moment, and breathe in the things that make life so amazing (like Fantasy Football…see what I did there).

Now onto Week 9 and the Primer.

Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• LAC -3, O/U 49.5
• Chargers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Chargers are fifth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.
• Atlanta has been stuck in the mud all year, ranking 28th in neutral pace. Arthur Smith’s love for the run knows no bounds, as the Falcons are first in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: Justin Herbert is the QB11 in fantasy. His fantasy value has been driven by volume and not strong quarterback play. Herbert is third in pass attempts, sixth in passing yards and seventh in passing touchdowns. Lifting the efficiency hood, though, isn’t pretty, as Herbert is 18th in PFF passing grade, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 32nd in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). This week’s matchup would be even juicier if he had a healthy wide receiver room to throw to, but it still offers a good venue for him to continue top-12 production. Atlanta allows the third-highest success rate per dropback, fourth-highest EPA per drop back, and fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are 32nd in passing yards per game and 28th in explosive pass rate. Herbert is a low-end QB1.

Marcus Mariota: After a rough patch, Mariota’s quarterback play has rebounded significantly. Since Week 5, he’s been the QB5 in fantasy points ranking 11th in PFF passing grade, seventh in yards per attempt, and 19th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Add the improved pocket play to Mariota’s rushing upside, and you have a borderline QB1 for Week 9. Mariota is seventh in rushing yards and tied for second in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Los Angeles offers a good matchup on the ground and through the air. The Chargers are 13th in success rate per dropback, 18th in passing yards per game, 25th in explosive pass rate, and 21st in explosive run rate allowed.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: It’s good to be the king. Ekeler and his trusty air guitar rule the running back roost, as he’s the RB1 in fantasy. Ekeler has remained efficient, ranking 14th in breakaway rate and 30th in PFF’s elusive rating while gobbling up the most high-value touches at the position (minimum 15 carries). Ekeler has continued to see Christian McCaffrey-type usage in the passing game, ranking third in Target share (21.0%), eighth in yards per route run, and first in receptions and receiving yards. Ekeler’s a locked-in top-three running back option weekly. Atlanta has limited big plays ranking tenth in explosive run rate, but they are still bleeding out production to backs. The Falcons have the highest rush success rate in the NFL. They are 29th in adjusted line yards, 19th in second-level yards, and rank 12th in receptions and receiving yards.

Week 5-8

Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson has been activated from the IR and will be active. It’s difficult to project his playing time. After practicing this week, if the Falcons activated him, he should be utilized a good bit. Many running backs return from injury and immediately roll back into their previous workloads. That’s in the range of outcomes for Patterson. For the most part, Allgeier and Huntley have been unspectacular while keeping the starter’s throne warm. In Weeks 1-3, Patterson handled 52.1% of the team’s rushing attempts (16.3 carries per game) and a 9.1% Target share (2.3 targets per game, 30.3-44.8% route run rate). In two of three games, he was a top-ten fantasy running back (RB5, RB6). Patterson is 16th in juke rate, 11th in breakaway run rate, and 23rd in yards created per touch. The Chargers have been abysmal against running backs. Los Angeles is 27th in rushing yards per game, 27th in EPA per rush, and 21st in explosive run rate. The Chargers are 27th in DVOA against receiving backs. Watch reports pregame on Patterson, but if he returns to his previous role, he’s a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside in Week 9. Until we have word on his playing time, he’s best viewed as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

Tyler Allgeier: In Weeks 2-3 with Patterson and Allgeier active, Allgeier averaged 8.5 touches and 30 total yards per game. He could play in tandem with Patterson this week, taking some of the early down work off his hands. Allgeier could also immediately fall back into his breather-back role and be a touchdown-or-bust RB3. In either case, Allgeier is best viewed as a volatile low-end flex play. Allgeier has been a plodder, for the most part, ranking 47th in yards after contact per attempt and 60th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 20 carries).

Caleb Huntley: Huntley likely goes back to the bench or is inactive this week. Kick him back to the waiver wire, or sit him this week.

Wide Receivers

Mike Williams: Williams will be out this week dealing with an ankle issue.

Keenan Allen: Allen has been ruled out (hamstring).

Josh Palmer: Palmer missed Week 7 dealing with a concussion. The Chargers need him back this week, with Williams and possibly Allen missing this game. Palmer has a 16.2% Target share with a 15.6% air yard share. Palmer has seen eight or more targets in 50% of his games played. Palmer has six red zone targets this season, with half of that usage coming in his last two games played. The Falcons continue to lean heavily on zone coverage (since Week 5, 66-72% of their corners’ snaps). Palmer has seen 58.3% of his target volume against zone. Palmer hasn’t been great despite the volume this season, ranking 93rd in PFF receiving grade and 85th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets), but he will run against meh cornerback talents in Week 9. Palmer will run about 69% of his routes against Cornell Armstrong (52.9% catch rate, 105.5 passer rating) and Darren Hall (73.3% catch rate, 131.0 passer rating), assuming the newly acquired Rashad Fenton (82.6% catch rate, 128.3 passer rating) isn’t ready to play this week. Palmer is a WR3/4.

Drake London: London continues to plug along with a fantastic rookie season. London is ninth in Target share (28.8%) and eighth in target per route run rate (31.4%). The issue continues to be route volume, as he’s 66th in routes run, leading to only 49 targets (36th). London hasn’t finished higher than WR49 or with more than 40 receiving yards since Week 3. London is fifth in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). This is a plus matchup for London, so we pray for target volume. London will run about 84% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (62.7% catch rate, 93.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (75% catch rate, 115.6 passer rating). London is a WR4.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: With the wide receiver room banged up, Everett should see a bump in work. He’s managed a 15.5% Target share (15th) and eight red zone targets (fourth) this season. Everett is 14th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run. Only 34.9% of his target volume has come against zone coverage. Everett should be considered a decent TE1 with upside. Atlanta has allowed the eighth-highest catch rate, second-most receptions, and third-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts is coming off a week where he saw his highest snap share (74.6%) since Week 2 and a season-high in targets (nine). Pitts is like London in that it’s not a talent problem but a volume issue. Pitts is second in Target share (26.7’%) and first in target per route run rate (33.3%) among tight ends. He’s second in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. Pitts is ninth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Pitts has two top-12 fantasy tight-end finishes in his last three games. The Chargers are 23rd in DVOA, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards and third-highest yards per reception. Pitts is a TE1.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears

• MIA -4, O/U 45.5
• Dolphins vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Dolphins have remained steadfast in their approach, moving slowly and passing a ton. They are 24th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
• While Chicago has remained run-heavy since Week 5 (fifth in neutral rushing rate), they have decided to pick up the pace (12th in neutral pace).

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is the QB7 in fantasy and has finished inside the top 11 in 60% of the full games that he has played. He’s playing fantastic football, ranking first in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and fifth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Bears have given up the seventh-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 22nd in EPA per dropback. They are 15th in yards per attempt but have held passers to the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate. Some of these numbers are related to how much success teams have had running against them, as they have faced the third-fewest passing attempts. The Bears have been quite good, though, against short passing while struggling to defend deep (26th in DVOA vs. deep passing). I’m old enough to remember when the running joke was Tagovailoa’s deep ball. I don’t hear anyone laughing or cracking jokes now. Tagovailoa is tenth in deep ball rate, first in deep adjusted completion rate, and eighth in deep passer rating (minimum ten deep passing attempts). Tagovailoa is a high-end QB1.

Justin Fields: Since Week 5, Fields has been the QB2 in fantasy. Take a second and let that simmer. Okay, have you effectively stuffed your Bears jokes and Fields shade to the side? If not, you should. Over the last four games, Fields is completing 64.1% of his passes, ranking 14th in yards per attempt while excelling with the deep ball. He’s 10th in PFF deep passing grade, sixth in deep rate, and 15th in deep adjusted completion rate. I know I’m burying the lead with the real money maker for Fields. His legs. Fields is second in rushing yards, in red zone carries per game, and in rushing touchdowns. He’s rushed for at least 60 yards in three of his last four games. The Dolphins continue to fall on their faces while attempting to defend the pass and tackle. They are surrendering the fourth-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 25th in passing yards per game and 30th in EPA per dropback. Miami is fourth in YAC and ninth in missed tackles. Fields is a strong QB1 again in Week 9.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Since Week 4, Mostert has owned this backfield playing at least 62% of the snaps weekly, averaging 17.2 touches and 85.4 total yards as the RB19 in fantasy. Despite his age, Mostert has shown this season that he is still a productive running back, ranking 34th in yards after contact per attempt and 31st in PFF’s elusive rating. Mostert is in the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation with a smash matchup in Week 9. Chicago is 31st in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 29th in explosive run rate. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Wilson will be active this week, per reports. While the short timeframe since his arrival would be a plus for the incumbent, this is a different set of circumstances. Wilson is well acquainted with Mike McDaniel’s offense, so expect him to be involved and eat into Mostert’s work.

Jeff Wilson: Wilson is as dependable as they come. He’s a volume rusher that is well-versed in what McDaniel wants from his backs. Wilson is 29th in juke rate, tenth in breakaway run rate, and 24th in evaded tackles. He’s handled at least 17 carries in three games this season. Mostert will still handle the passing downs as Wilson probably doesn’t have enough time to get up to speed on the pass protection scheme, but when he’s on the field, expect Wilson to get work on the ground. There’s limited touchdown equity for these rushers as the Dolphins are tenth in red zone passing rate. The matchup puts Wilson in play as a risky but viable RB3.

Weeks 7-8

David Montgomery: Over the last four games, Montgomery has finished as the RB16, RB23, RB24, and RB35. Since Week 7, he’s averaged 16.5 touches and 68.5 total yards. He’s still held the advantage over Herbert in the passing game and the red zone. Montgomery is still effective as a volume and chunk runner. He’s 10th in juke rate and seventh in evaded tackles while ranking outside the top 50 backs in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. Miami remains a tough assignment for running backs. The Dolphins have given up the seventh-lowest rushing success rate. They are top-five in adjusted line yards and second-level yards, holding running backs to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate. Montgomery is an RB3.

Khalil Herbert: Over the last two weeks, Herbert has averaged 14.5 touches and 93 total yards as the lightning to Montgomery’s thunder. The Chicago backfield continues to draw parallels to Dallas, with Montgomery being a better version of Ezekiel Elliott. Herbert remains one of the most explosive rushers in the NFL, sitting at eighth in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in breakaway rate, and 14th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). While Montgomery still has the upper hand in the high-value areas, Herbert is quickly carving out more volume in this rushing attack. He’s finished as a top-30 fantasy running back in each of the last three weeks (RB26, RB18, RB15). With his ability to break off any carry for a long gain, Herbert is also an RB3 with a higher upside than Montgomery in Week 9.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: What’s there to say about Hill at this point? He’s the WR3 in fantasy and a weekly start no matter the matchup. He’s first in targets, receptions, and receiving yards and second in Target share (33.6%). He leads all wide receivers in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). While he’s first in deep targets, the only small issue you can poke in his armor is that he has one red zone target and two touchdowns all season. With this type of astronomical profile, it’s only a matter of time before the touchdowns come. He’ll run about 57% of his routes against Kindle Vildor (61.3% catch rate, 81.7 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (56.3% catch rate, 80.2 passer rating). All I can say is good luck, guys. You’re going to need it against Hill.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is the WR8 in fantasy. He’s also a weekly WR1. He’s seen a 22.6% Target share and 26.2% of the team’s air yards. He’s also pitched into the deep passing attack with six downfield targets, but he’s seen more work near the goal line with six red zone targets (30th). With his 10.7 aDOT, he’s done more of his work after the catch and ranks fourth in YAC. He’ll run about 72% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor.

Darnell Mooney: Over his last five games, Mooney has finished as a top 36 wide receiver three times (WR24, WR26, WR35). Since Week 4 he’s 19th in targets, sixth in Target share (30.1%), fourth in air yard share (44.6%), and ninth in yards per route run (2.74, minimum ten targets). He’s been the team’s best downfield weapon (23rd in deep targets, nine) but also their best YAC weapon although it’s not his best strength. Mooney is 42nd in YAC and tied for 50th in YAC per reception on short targets (0-9 yards).

New #Bears WR Chase Claypool has been putting in extra hours with offensive quality control coach Omar Young. Matt Eberflus estimated Claypool could play anywhere between 10-35 snaps Sunday depending on how much he can handle. Flus added that Claypool is a smart player.

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) November 4, 2022

Chase Claypool: Claypool will play limited snaps this week. The matchup is fantastic, but outside of dynasty formats where you might have no one else to start, I’m not trusting Claypool this week.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki: Since Week 5, Gesicki has seen a 14.3% Target share with a 64.1% route run rate. He’s finished as a top-ten tight end in two of his last four games. Overall he’s 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s become a staple in the red zone with eight looks (fourth) inside the 20 and six of them coming in the last three games. Chicago is 15th in DVOA against the position allowing the 12th-highest catch rate but the eighth-lowest yards per reception and the tenth-fewest receptions. Gesicki is a low-end TE1.

Cole Kmet: Kmet’s season has been pretty putrid. He’s only managed 20 targets (31st) in this low-volume passing offense. He’s 38th in PFF receiving grade and 46th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Kmet has only three red zone targets, two of which came last week. That said, if there was ever a week to consider streaming him based on the matchup, it’s Week 9. Miami is 26th in DVOA, giving up the highest catch rate, third-most receptions, and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Kmet is a matchup-based streamer and TE2.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -7, O/U 42.5
• Panthers vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With P.J. Walker under center, Carolina has been 15th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral rushing rate.
• The Bengals kept the same offensive design without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. They were still quick to snap the ball and loved to pass. Cincinnati is 13th in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

P.J. Walker: Walker is a QB2 with some upside this week. Over the last two games, he’s finished as the QB14 and QB16 in fantasy. He’s eighth in PFF passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, but sadly 39th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Walker gets to tackle a Cincinnati Bengals pass defense that’s on the ropes. Overall this season, they have allowed the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback and fourth-lowest success rate per dropback. That all went out the window in Week 8 with Eli Apple out and Chidobe Awuzie now lost for the season. Cincinnati gave up the third-highest success rate per dropback and sixth-highest EPA per dropback to Jacoby Brissett. Brissett ripped this pass defense apart with 12.6 yards per attempt. We’ll see if Apple can make it back for Week 9, but even if he can, he’s not a stellar corner.

Joe Burrow: Burrow’s upside has been heavily correlated to Ja’Marr Chase over the last two seasons. Without Chase in the lineup last week, Burrow struggled to complete 71.4% of his passes with only 6.6 yards per attempt as the QB22. Overall, Burrow is tenth in PFF passing grade, 11th in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) as the QB4 in fantasy. Burrow is too talented to fade him into QB2 territory. He’s a low-end QB1 in a tough spot. With Jaycee Horn active, the Panthers are 15th in passing yards per game with the 13th-lowest explosive pass rate surrendered. Carolina has allowed the 13th-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Week 8

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman has been balling out over the last two weeks as the RB17 and RB5 in fantasy. He’s picked right up where he left off last season. Foreman is 23rd in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in breakaway run rate, and 26th in PFF’s elusive rating. Last week he dominated the Panthers’ backfield work in all facets while he didn’t have much of a pass game role he still accounted for a 55.3% route run rate. Foreman should shred a Bengals’ run defense that has fallen to pieces since Week 5. Over the last four weeks, the Bengals are 30th in rushing yards per game, 28th in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. Foreman is an RB1.

Chuba Hubbard (ankle) ruled out for Week 9 https://t.co/IjfoGD69ZU via @Koslow_ari #KeepPounding

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) November 4, 2022

Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has been ruled out (ankle).

Joe Mixon: Mixon has been the epitome of efficiency ineptitude this season. Despite ranking fourth in snap share, fifth in opportunity share, and third in weighted opportunity, he’s the RB17 in fantasy. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards all season and hasn’t crossed the 80-yard mark on the ground since Week 1. Volume has kept him afloat, as he’s averaged 20.4 touches with 80.8 total yards. Among 70 running backs with at least 20 rushing attempts, he’s 69th in yards after contact per attempt and 64th in PFF’s elusive rating. His pass game role has kept him buoyant with his 14.6% Target share (seventh), 34 receptions (fourth), and 214 receiving yards (eighth). The Panthers are another advantageous matchup for Mixon. They are 23rd in rushing yards per game, 22nd explosive run rate, and eighth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Mixon can take advantage with his receiving role against a defense that’s 24th in DVOA, giving up the sixth-highest yards per reception and second-most receiving touchdowns (tied). Mixon is a low-end RB1.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: League-average quarterback play, that’s all D.J. Moore needed to explode. Since Week 7, he’s finished as the WR9 and WR5 in fantasy. He’s commanded a 36.8% Target share and 52.7% air yard share, averaging 110.5 receiving yards. Over the last two games, he’s ninth in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route run (minimum eight targets). Moore will run about 71% of his routes against rookie Cam Taylor-Britt (all four targets in coverage secured, 118.8 passer rating) and Tre Flowers (78.6% catch rate, 120.8 passer rating). Moore is a WR1.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 9, D.J. Moore is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Terrace Marshall: Marshall has shown signs of life over the last two weeks with a 21.1% Target share and 24.6% air yard share. He’s managed a 2.15 yards per route run and was the WR29 last week with a career-high 87 receiving yards. His role is entirely different this season as he was a predominant slot receiver (60.8%) last year. This season he’s run about 90% of his routes on the perimeter with a 10.7 aDOT (6.7 last season). He’ll see Taylor-Britt and Flowers all game. Marshall is a WR3/4.

Tee Higgins: Higgins is a WR2. In the six games he’s played at least 64% of the snaps, he’s been a top 36 wide receiver in every game and a WR2 or better four times. In those six games, he’s seen a 21.9% Target share (7.8 targets per game), averaging 5.3 grabs and 79.5 receiving yards (2.20 yards per route run). Higgins has five red zone targets in those six full games. Jaycee Horn may shadow him this week. Horn has lightly shadowed twice this season following Michael Thomas and Amari Cooper on 41-46% of their routes, limiting them to four targets, three receptions, and 14 receiving yards. If Horn doesn’t follow him, Higgins will run about 78% of his routes against Horn (42.1% catch rate, 27.7 passer rating) and Donte Jackson (78% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating).

Tyler Boyd: Last week, Boyd saw a 14.7% Target share in Chase’s absence and finished as the WR28 in fantasy. Boyd has been a WR3 or better in five of eight games. Overall he has a 14.5% Target share and a 20.6% air yard share. He’s seen six deep targets (43rd) and four red zone targets (47th) from Burrow. Boyd is 31st in PFF receiving grade and 55th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). This week, Burrow will lean heavily on Boyd, especially if Higgins has Horn in his back pocket. Boyd will run about 83% of his routes against Myles Hartsfield (75% catch rate, 124.6 passer rating) in the slot. Boyd is a WR2.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is the TE14 in fantasy with a 14.3% Target share (17th) and 78.1% route participation mark (ninth). Hurst remains the ugly volume champion. He’s second in routes run, ninth in targets, and 16th in slot snaps among tight ends. Hurst has been a Burrow favorite inside the 20-yard line ranking seventh in red zone targets (seven). He’s 25th in PFF receiving grade and 35th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The Panthers have been friendly to tight ends, ranking 29th in DVOA with the sixth-highest catch rate and tenth-highest yards per reception allowed. Hurst is a TE1.

PHI vs. HOU | LAC vs. ATL | MIA vs. CHI | CAR vs. CIN | GB vs. DET | IND vs. NE | BUF vs. NYJ | MIN vs. WAS | LV vs. JAC | SEA vs. ARI | LAR vs. TB | TEN vs. KC | BAL vs. NO