Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
Pace and playcalling notes
- The play volume in this game will disappoint. Cincinnati has dropped to 18th in neutral pace despite the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL.
- The Titans are a known commodity, ranking 31st in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: Burrow is playing amazing football this season as the QB4 in fantasy. Burrow is sixth in PFF passing grade, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). Burrow is 12th in deep ball completion rate and seventh in deep ball accuracy. He should shred a pass defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the fourth-most passing touchdowns. Since Week 5, Tennessee has been 28th in passing yards per game. The Titans are fourth in deep completion rate and first in deep passing yards allowed. Burrow is a high-ceiling QB1.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has played extremely well since his return as the QB9 and QB12 over the last two weeks. Overall this season, Tannehill is 13th in PFF passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and seventh in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 8, the Bengals have missed Chidobe Awuzie. Since losing their top corner, they are 24th in passing yards per game, 21st in EPA per dropback, and 21st in explosive pass rate. Tannehill has top 12 upside again this week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: Mixon has been ruled out (concussion).
Samaje Perine: Perine went wild last week with 15 touches (70% of snaps), 82 total yards, and three touchdowns. This week he’ll be the unquestioned lead back for the Bengals. Perine gets a bad rap as an unproductive plodder type which couldn’t be more inaccurate. Among all running backs with at least 25 carries and 15 targets, he’s top 20 in yards after contact per attempt (19th), PFF elusive rating (19th), and yards per route run (13th). The Titans are a terrible matchup for any rushing attack, ranking first in rushing yards per game, second in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Perine should be able to again rack up volume through the air against a defense that’s allowed the most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards to running backs. It’s been volume driven, though, as the same defense has given up the third-lowest yards per reception to the position. Perine is an RB2.
Derrick Henry: The Big Dawg never gets full. He’s always ready to eat, averaging 24.8 touches and 120.9 total yards as the RB2 in fantasy. Henry is eighth in evaded tackles, fourth in breakaway runs, and third in yards created. Even with D.J. Reader back last week, Najee Harris ran for 4.5 yards per carry. Since Week 6, the Bengals have been 22nd in rushing yards per game, 29th in EPA per rush, and 24th in explosive run rate allowed. Henry is a weekly top-five play.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins: In his full games played, Higgins has a 24.2% target share and 34.5% air yard share. In that eight-game sample, he’s 12th in PFF receiving grade and tenth in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s the WR21 in fantasy with eight deep targets, and seven red zone looks. Higgins is a WR1 that will run about 76% of his routes against Kristian Fulton (54.2% catch rate, 95.2 passer rating) and Tre Avery (57.1% catch rate, 128.0 passer rating).
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has been ruled out.
Tyler Boyd: With Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup, Boyd has a 17% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 24.2% air yard share (9.5 aDOT). He’s finished as a WR3 in two of those three games. Boyd has five red zone targets this season, and three have come in the last four games. Boyd is a WR3 that will run about 81% of his routes against Roger McCreary (74.1% catch rate, 105.8 passer rating). Tennessee has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.
Treylon Burks: The Burks breakout game was last week, as he earned a 29.6% target share with seven receptions and 111 receiving yards. Burks is 49th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run this season (minimum 25 targets). Burks has three red zone targets in his last four games played. The name of the game should be to set up Burks for run after the catch opportunities. Burks is 15th in YAC per reception (minimum 25 targets), facing a team ninth in missed tackles. Burks is an upside WR3/4 that will run about 78% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (84.6% catch rate, 133.0 passer rating) and Eli Apple (60% catch rate, 106.6 passer rating).
Robert Woods: Last week was only the second game all season with Woods surpassing 40 receiving yards. Woods has a 22.0% target share which has amounted to five targets per game. Woods is 43rd in PFF receiving grade and 58th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Woods has drawn eight red zone targets this season, but half came in Week 11. Woods is a WR5/6 that will run about 66% of his routes against Taylor-Britt and Apple.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst: Hurst is the TE15 in fantasy with a 13.9% target share and seven red zone targets (11th). Hurst is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Hurst is a TE2 with a mixed-bag matchup. Tennessee is seventh in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the fifth-lowest catch rate but also surrendering the sixth-most receiving yards per game and fifth-highest yards per reception.
TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
Pace and playcalling notes
- This is another slower-paced game as both teams are outside the top 20 NFL teams (MIA 21st, HOU 25th) in neutral pace.
- Houston operates a balanced offense (17th in neutral passing rate). While Miami knows that their bread is buttered through the passing game (11th in neutral passing rate).
Quarterbacks
Kyle Allen: From 2019-2020 we have a 16-game sample of Allen as a starting quarterback. He finished as a QB1 three times and as a QB2 eight times. Allen has a career 63.1% completion rate and 6.9 yards per attempt. Without any byes this week, you likely have better options at the QB2 position in Superflex, but he’s worth a stash in case injury strikes. Since Week 6, the Dolphins have improved to an above-average pass defense, ranking 15th in passing yards per game, 14th in EPA per drop back, and first in explosive pass rate allowed.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua season is in full effect. Tagovailoa’s prowess is on display for all the haters to see. This young quarterback has had to deal with a ton of criticism in his young career, with much of it being ridiculous conjecture. Strut Tua. Strut. Tagovailoa is the QB7 in fantasy with top-five weeks in each of his last three starts. Tagovailoa is seventh in fantasy points per dropback, first in yards per attempt, fifth in accuracy rating, and fourth in true completion rate. Tagovailoa is headed for another top-five week against a secondary (since Week 5) that’s tenth in success rate per dropback, 12th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in explosive pass rate allowed.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce: Before flopping last week in a tough matchup, Pierce averaged 22.8 touches and 111.7 total yards since Week 3. Pierce has been a monster this year as the RB19 in fantasy. He’s 14th in juke rate, fourth in evaded tackles, and 20th in yards created per touch. Touchdown regression is bound to strike him before the season’s end, as he’s eighth in red zone touches, but he’s 25th in total touchdowns (four). After starting the year as a run-stopping behemoth, the Dolphins have displayed holes in the dam. Since Week 5, they are 17th in rushing yards per game, 24th in EPA per rush, and 21st in explosive run rate allowed. Pierce also has a 9.4% target share (24th) that he can put to use against a team that’s 29th in DVOA against pass-catching backs. Miami is eighth in receiving yards per game and sixth in yard per reception allowed to running backs. Pierce is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside.
Weeks 9-10
Jeff Wilson: Wilson has taken over as the leader of this backfield. In Week 10 he played 61% of the snaps with 19 touches (five targets) and 143 total yards. In his two games with the Dolphins he has been the RB8 and RB7 in fantasy. Wilson is 25th in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway run rate, and eighth in yards per touch. Wilson is headed for another RB1 week against the Texans. Since Week 5, Houston is 32nd in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 32nd in explosive run rate allowed. Wilson is an RB1.
Raheem Mostert: Since Week 9, Mostert has averaged 37% of the snaps, 10.5 touches, and 56.5 total yards. With touchdowns in each game, he finished as the RB25 and RB10 in those weeks. Mostert has quickly taken a backseat to Wilson, but with four red zone carries over his last two games, he’s still a viable flex/RB3. Mostert is 15th in breakaway runs and 24th in yards per touch. Mostert has been listed as doubtful. Wilson was already an RB1, but this turn of events helps his floor and ceiling projection even further.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: Collins has taken over as the clear number one option in the Houston passing attack with a 24.6% target share and 22.8% air yard share over the last two games. Collins is 37th in PFF receiving grade and 28th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). With his transition in roles, his aDOT has dropped to 6.7 since Week 10, and he has four red zone targets in this two-game snippet. Collins will match up with Xavien Howard (68.1% catch rate, 143.1 passer rating) and Justin Bethel (61.1% catch rate, 53.5 passer rating) on 91% of his routes. Collins is a WR3/4.
Brandin Cooks: Cooks hasn’t finished as a WR3 or better since Week 4. Cooks has a 22.1% target share, 28.8% air yard share, and only three red zone targets over his last seven games. Cooks is 58th in PFF receiving grade and ranked 48th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Cooks is a WR4 that will run about 73% of routes against Howard and Bethel.
Tyreek Hill: Hill has been ridiculous this season. As the WR3 in fantasy, he has a 31.9% target share (second), a 34.9% target per route run rate (second), and a 40.5% air yard share (third). He’s second in the NFL in deep targets and has seen his red zone usage tick up, with two red zone targets in each of his last two games. Hill leads the NFL in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Hill is a top-three wide receiver weekly. He’ll run about 56% of his routes against Desmond King (70.4% catch rate, 79.2 passer rating) and Steven Nelson (61.1% catch rate, 77.1 passer rating).
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is a must-start weekly WR1. He’s the WR9 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22.3% target share as the Dolphins’ intermediate and YAC threat. Waddle ranks fifth in receiving yards and seventh in YAC while also garnering eight deep targets (36th). He’s been lights out, ranking seventh in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run behind only Hill and Stefon Diggs (minimum 25 targets). Waddle will run about 73% of his routes against King and Nelson.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has turned back into a pumpkin after a few weeks of his production rebounding. Since Week 8, he has had a 9.4% target share (three targets per game) with a 56.2% route run rate. He’s a touchdown-or-bust TE2 who has still seen two red zone targets over his last three games. Houston is 20th in DVOA against tight ends giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game and ninth-highest yards per reception.
TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Bears are still a below-average play volume team (22nd in neutral pace) that leads the NFL in neutral rushing rate.
- The Jets are middle of the road in terms of pace and passing rate. They are 14th and 16th in neutral pace and passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Fields has been listed as a game-time decision for Week 12. Fields could easily be held out, so I would already have a contingency plan in place and mute your projection if he’s active. Fields running less and more put on the plate of David Montgomery is possible. Fields is the QB6 in fantasy after rattling off top-ten finishes in every game since Week 6. His rushing acumen has propelled him to the top of the fantasy love list, but over that stretch, he’s also 15th in big-time throw rate, sixth in passing touchdowns, and 20th in yards per attempt. The Jets remain a top-tier pass defense, ranking tenth in passing yards per game, second in EPA per drop back, and fifth in explosive pass rate allowed. Fields is best viewed as a low-end QB1 if active.
Mike White: Last season, we got a four-game stretch of White under center. He was a below-league-average quarterback, and that’s probably being kind, but the Jets look at him as an upgrade over Zach Wilson. That should be telling. White was ranked 42nd in PFF passing grade, 18th in yards per attempt, and 15th in adjusted completion. He was a check-down artist ranking 43rd in aDOT. He was the QB2 and QB27 in fantasy in his two full starts. Luckily for White, the Bears’ defense has no claws. They are 24th in pressure rate and 28th in blitz rate, so White should have plenty of time in the pocket. Since Week 6, Chicago has allowed the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, second-highest EPA per drop back, and rank 28th in explosive pass rate. White is a viable QB2 option.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: Last week, Montgomery saw his highest snap rate (80%) since Week 2. Montgomery had 20 touches, turning them into 121 total yards. Montgomery is a volume play weekly as a strong RB2 with RB1 upside. He’s ninth in juke rate and seventh in evaded tackles. He’s now up to 16th in yards created and 23rd in yards created per touch. We’ve seen stretch-run hero Montgomery before. He’s setting up for an encore performance in 2022. The Jets won’t make it easy for him, though. Since Week 6, they are eighth in rushing yards per game, eighth in EPA per rush, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed.
Trestan Ebner: Ebner isn’t a threat to Montgomery’s workhorse role. Last week he played 22% of the snaps with six touches for eight total yards. He’s a middle-of-the-road handcuff.
Weeks 8-11
Michael Carter: Since Robinson’s arrival, Carter has split the early down work while retaining lead-back duties. Carter has averaged 11 touches and 54.6 total yards while garnering the pass game routes and red zone work. Carter has been efficient with his work this season, ranking 22nd in juke rate, 11th in breakaway run rate, 19th in yards created per touch, and 15th in yards per route run. Carter is an RB2 with a sweet match-up. Since Week 6, Chicago is seventh in yards per carry (4.7), 19th in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed.
James Robinson: With the Jets, Robinson has played 22% of the snaps in two of three games averaging nine touches and 26.7 total yards. His efficiency numbers have tanked as the season has progressed. Robinson has only two missed tackles in his last five games and hasn’t registered higher than 2.50 yards after contact per attempt since Week 3. Robinson is an RB4.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney: Since Week 4, Mooney has had a 28.7% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 37.6% air yard share as the WR36 in fantasy. Over that eight-game stretch, Mooney is 26th in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Mooney is 20th in deep targets, with five of his seven red zone targets this season coming in the last four games. Mooney is a WR3 with WR2 upside that will run about 61% of his routes against Michael Carter (75% catch rate, 85.8 passer rating).
Chase Claypool: Claypool is still just a stash only. His route run rate was only 54% in Week 11, and his 18% target per route run rate isn’t high enough to justify starting him, especially in this brutal matchup.
Garrett Wilson: Since Week 8, Wilson has had a 24.4% target share and 24.5% air yard share while rocking a 97% route run rate. Wilson is 16th in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run, tied with Deebo Samuel (minimum 25 targets). He’s been a stud this season, dealing with a 73.2% catchable target rate (67th). Wilson is also 16th in red zone targets. Wilson is a WR3/4 that will run about 70% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (60.7% catch rate, 104.3 passer rating) and Kindle Vildor (63.6% catch rate, 85.4 passer rating).
Corey Davis: Davis has practiced in full all week. He’ll be back in the huddle this week. In Weeks 2-6, Davis played at least 70% of the snaps weekly, seeing a 14.4% target share and 27% air yard share. He finished as a top 24 wide receiver twice. He’s been WR75, WR72, and WR48 in the other three games. Davis is a WR5.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Kmet’s touchdown streak had to end at some point after spiking it in the end zone in each of the previous three games. Since Week 8, Kmet is the TE2 in fantasy behind only Travis Kelce with a 21.3% target share (4.8 targets per game), 42.9% end zone target share, and 1.94 yards per route run. Kmet is also sixth among tight ends in deep targets. Kmet is a low-end TE1 facing a Jets defense that’s allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends, but they are only one of two teams yet to allow a receiving touchdown.
Tyler Conklin: Since Week 7, Conklin has had a 20.8% target share (5.2 targets per game), 57.1% end zone target share, and 63.6% route run rate. He’s the TE14 overall with three top 12 tight end weeks on his resume. Sadly, Conklin is a TE2 that has only seen two red zone targets since Week 2. Chicago has held tight ends to the third-lowest receiving yards per game and ninth-lowest yards per reception.
TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
Pace and playcalling notes
- The play volume in this game will be disgusting. Each of these teams is incredibly slow in neutral situations (WAS 24th, ATL 26th) and run-centric (Neutral rushing rate ranks: ATL second, WAS sixth).
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota: Mariota is the QB17 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 performances this year. Mariota has been dreadful as a passer, ranking 21st in PFF passing grade, 36th in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in turn-over worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). His fantasy value is tied to his legs, as he’s sixth in rushing yards, third in rushing touchdowns, and third in red zone carries. Mariota is a QB2 facing an improved Commanders’ secondary. Since Week 6, they are sixth in passing yards per game, fourth in EPA per drop back, and 14th in pass defense DVOA.
Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke is a QB2. In three of his five starts, he’s finished as the QB15 or higher (QB13, QB8, QB15). His floor has bottomed out over the last two games, as he’s failed to throw for a touchdown either week. Heinicke is duking it out with Mariota for the ugliest starting quarterback play in the NFL. Ok, maybe it’s not that bad, but it has been tough to watch. Heinicke is 37th in PFF passing grade, 33rd in adjusted completion rate, and first in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Luckily for Heinicke, the Falcons are still a horrible pass defense. Since Week 6, they are 30th in pass defense DVOA, ranking 27th in passing yards per game and 25th in EPA per dropback.
Running Backs
Weeks 9-11
Cordarrelle Patterson: Since Patterson’s return, he’s averaged 10.6 touches and 44 total yards. His snap rate increased to 49% as the backfield was whittled down to just Patterson and Allgeier (Caleb Huntley 4% of snaps). Patterson has finished as a top-24 running back in two of his last three games (RB7, RB21). The Falcons look determined to continue limiting his snaps, as Allgeier led all running backs with 55% of the snaps last week. Patterson is 15th in yards per touch, 18th in juke rate, and 14th in breakaway run rate. He’s an RB3 in a difficult matchup. Since Week 6, Washington has been an elite run defense, ranking sixth in rushing yards per game, seventh in EPA per rush, and second in explosive run rate. Patterson’s target share (6.7%) isn’t substantial enough to help his fantasy day.
Tyler Allgeier: Over the last three games, Allgeier has averaged 10.4 touches and 63.3 total yards. His efficiency on the ground has improved throughout the season, as he’s now ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt and 28th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Allegier’s two big issues this week are the terrible rushing matchup and his minimal red zone usage since Week 9. That work has largely gone to Patterson. Allgeier is a low-ceiling RB4.
Antonio Gibson: Last week Gibson assumed the lead role with his highest snap share of the season (68%). He finished Week 11 with 21 touches and 93 total yards. Gibson is the RB23 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a top 24 back in five of his last six games. Gibson is a volume-based RB2. His efficiency has been putrid as he ranks outside the top 50 running backs in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, and PFF elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Atlanta is a middling matchup for running backs that has limited big plays. Since Week 6, they are 18th in rushing yards per game, 16th in EPA per rush and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Gibson’s consistent pass-game role helps his ceiling and floor weekly. He’s seen at least three targets in every game this season except for one.
Brian Robinson: Since Week 9, Robinson has averaged 18 rushing attempts and 62.3 rushing attempts. While Gibson has the edge in red zone rushing attempts (nine) over this span, Robinson has still managed six totes near the goal line. Robinson and Gibson are playing a gross game of who can be more inefficient with their workload. Robinson is outside the top 50 running backs in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway rate. Robinson is a touchdown-or-bust RB4.
Wide Receivers
Drake London: With Kyle Pitts sidelined, London could vacuum up targets in this run-first offense. London has had no issues demanding work this year, ranking 13th in target share (27.1%) and 11th in target per route run rate (11th). The problem has been the raw passing volume (5.9 targets per game), but that could be curtailed moving forward as Atlanta has a depth chart of water boys running routes behind Pitts. London is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 50th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been Mariota’s go-to near the goal line ranking ninth in red zone targets. London is a WR4 that will run about 55% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (61.8% catch rate, 103.2 passer rating).
Terry McLaurin: With Heinicke under center, McLaurin has a 31.6% target share, 25% end zone target share, and 54.9% air yard share. Since Week 7, McLaurin has been fifth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Last week’s WR43 finish was his lowest (WR11, WR17, WR26, WR10), with Heinicke chucking him passes. McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 68% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (67.5% catch rate, 130.6 passer rating) and Darren Hall (70.8% catch rate, 112.0 passer rating).
Curtis Samuel: With Heinicke, Samuel has a 16.2% target share and 16.5% air yard share as the short area weapon (7.9 aDOT). Not counting the fluke week against Minnesota, Samuel has one top-36 WR finish with Heinicke. He has not seen a target inside the 20-yard line since Week 7. Samuel is a WR4/5 that will run about 67% of his routes against Isaiah Oliver (79.2% catch rate, 76.6 passer rating.
Jahan Dotson: Dotson saw his route run rate climb to 82% last week, but he’s still just a tertiary option in a run-first offense. With McLaurin soaking up so much of the pass game work, Dotson isn’t worth taking the risk on. In the two games since his return, he has a 6.2% target share and an 8% target per route run rate.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Since Week 9, Thomas has had a 17.6% target share (4.3 targets per game), a 50% end zone target share, and a 65.2% route run rate. Thomas came to life last week with his highest receiving yardage total of the season (65 yards). It’s hard to buy into that a ton, while it’s encouraging as Thomas couldn’t surpass 15 receiving yards in his two previous outings. Thomas is a viable matchup-based streamer this week. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most receptions and ninth-highest catch rate to tight ends. Those are positive signs, but this secondary has also limited the position to one receiving touchdown and the 11th-lowest yards per reception. Thomas could walk away from Week 12 with a solid stat line, but it’s risky.
TB vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | HOU vs. MIA | CHI vs. NYJ | ATL vs. WAS | DEN vs. CAR | BAL vs. JAC | LAC vs. ARI | LV vs. SEA | LAR vs. KC | NO vs. SF | GB vs. PHI | PIT vs. IND | BUF vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | NE vs. MIN
