The Primer: Week 11 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• KC -5.5, O/U 52
• Chiefs vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game is sexy. Each team falls inside the top ten in neutral pace (LAC first, KC ninth) and neutral passing rate (KC first, LAC eighth).

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Writing up Mahomes’ outlook weekly is always a treat. His excellence is astounding, but are you ever benching him in any format? No. He’s been a top-six fantasy quarterback every week except for two. Mahomes is the QB2 in fantasy points per game while also ranking seventh in fantasy points per dropback. He’s top-three in pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He’s matchup-proof.

Justin Herbert: On the other side of the field, Herbert has not enjoyed the same stellar season as Mahomes. Much of this is related to the health of his pass catchers, which has been problematic, to say the least. Herbert has finished as the QB18 or lower in four of his last five games. Since Week 5, his downgraded receiving weapons have crushed his fantasy value. Over his last five games, he’s 14th in PFF passing grade and 11th in adjusted completion rate, but he’s also 39th in yards per attempt and 31st in big-time throw rate with five passing touchdowns. Herbert is a QB2 despite a fruitful matchup with Kansas City, who, since Week 5, are 24th in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 24th in explosive pass rate.

Running Backs

Week 10

Isiah Pacheco: Last week, Pacheco played a season-high 56% of snaps with 16 carries and 82 rushing yards. He saw the most red zone work among the Chiefs’ backs. He was a zero in the passing game, but that might not matter this week. Pacheco could flirt with 15-20 carries this week, with the Chiefs favored over the injured Chargers. Pacheco is 24th in yards after contact per attempt and 29th in breakaway run rate. The Bolts are 30th in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 26th in rush success rate allowed. Pacheco is an RB2.

Jerick McKinnon: Last week, McKinnon played 38% of the snaps as the passing down compliment to Pacheco. Over the last two weeks, McKinnon has garnered eight targets per game, averaging eight touches and 51 total yards per game. McKinnon has seen at least three targets per game in each of the last five weeks. McKinnon has been the RB21 and RB20 in fantasy in his last two games. This season, McKinnon has a 9.6% Target share (22nd) and ranks 22nd in yards per route run. The Chargers are 28th in DVOA against pass-catching backs, tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns allowed. McKinnon is an RB3/flex play that gets a bump in PPR formats.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Edwards-Helaire played four snaps, drawing two targets. He’s dust. Feel free to drop him from your rosters unless you desire a Pacheco handcuff.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler remains the king of the hill as the RB1 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19 touches and 96.8 total yards. He’s seen an insane nine targets per game (22.3% Target share, first) with 7.4 receptions. Ekeler is 13th in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunities, and fifth in red zone touches. He is 20th in evaded tackles, 15th in breakaway run rate, seventh in yards per route run, and tenth in yards created per touch. Since Week 5, Kansas City has been 18th in rushing yards per game and 15th in explosive run rate. They are 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Ekeler should chew this defense up through the air. Kansas City is 26th in DVOA against receiving backs allowing the most receptions and receiving yards per game. Ekeler is a top shelf RB1.

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster has been ruled out (concussion). 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game. He’s the WR59 in fantasy this season with three games as a WR3 or better. With Smith-Schuster and Hardman out, he’s likely to see a bump in the pecking order. The question is how much because Valdes-Scantling has never been a strong target earner, and this year is much of the same. Valdes-Scantling has a 12.5% Target share and a 14.7% target per route rate (94th). He’s moved back into his usual field stretching role, ranking 19th in aDOT. He has six red zone targets this season but only one over his last four games. Scantling is a WR3/4 that will run about 60% of his routes against Samuel Jr. and Davis.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman was placed on the IR (abdomen). 

Kadarius Toney: Last week, Toney handled a 14.7% Target share (five targets) and a 15.5% air yard share. He only managed a 43.6% route run rate. Toney snagged four balls with 57 receiving yards (one touchdown) while also chipping in two carries for 33 rushing yards. Toney ran 94% of his routes on the perimeter. He’ll spend all day matched up with Michael Davis (66.7% catch rate, 96.4 passer rating) and Asante Samuel Jr. (59.0% catch rate, 86.6 passer rating). Toney should be the number two option in the Chiefs’ passing attack this week behind Kelce. Toney is a WR2.

Keenan Allen: Allen was limited on Wednesday and Thursday in practice before recording a full session on Friday. Allen has been listed as questionable. We’ll see if he makes his return this week. If he does, he’ll run about 62% of his routes from the slot against L’Jarius Sneed (74% catch rate, 115.4 passer rating). The Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Allen will be a risky WR3.

Mike Williams: Williams was limited on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full practice on Friday. Williams is the WR13 in fantasy with a 20.3% Target share (39th) and 34.9% air yard share (15th). He’s 12th in red zone targets this season among wide receivers. Yes, all of this production has occurred without Allen in the lineup, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that Williams has been a baller when on the field. He’ll run about 83% of his routes on the perimeter against Trent McDuffie (60% catch rate, 76.7 passer rating), Joshua Williams (63.2% catch rate, 108.1 passer rating), and Jaylen Watson (63.8% catch rate, 95.5 passer rating). If active, Williams is a WR2.

Josh Palmer: With Williams active, Palmer has a 16.2% Target share and a 15.6% Target share. He managed three games as a WR3 or better in Weeks 1-7. If Williams and Allen are back, Palmer is nothing more than a WR4. Palmer has six red zone turrets (38th) and ranks 79th in yards per route run.

DeAndre Carter: Since Week 6, Carter has seen a 12% Target share (5.5 targets per game), playing at least 73% of snaps weekly. Over those last four games, he’s seen two red zone targets and logged two WR3 or better games (WR27, WR17). If Allen is out, he’ll run about 75% of his routes from the slot. Carter will be a WR4 if Allen is out and unplayable if he’s active.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy points per game with a 24.3% Target share (third) and 22.5% air yard share (third). He’s fifth in deep targets and first in red zone targets among tight ends. You’re playing Kelce weekly. Never overthink it. The Bolts are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends, with the tenth-most receiving yards and third-highest yards per reception allowed to the position.

Gerald Everett: Everett left last week’s game with a groin injury. He enters this week without an injury designation. Everett is the TE12 in fantasy points per game with a 15.0% Target share (16th) and nine red zone targets (fifth-most). Everett is 16th in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Kansas City has allowed the tenth-highest yards per reception and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Everett is a TE1.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• SF -8, O/U 43.5
• 49ers vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Captain flat bill has always commanded a slow (30th in neutral pace), but the team has given a pulse to their passing rate (20th) in close games.
• The Kliff Kingsbury show remains quick (third in neutral pace) and pass-happy (ninth in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is a league-average quarterback talent, and that honestly could be stating it kindly. He’s finished as the QB9 in fantasy in three of his last five games, but in any week, he is a candidate to put up a vanilla stat line if the touchdowns flow elsewhere. Garoppolo is 14th in PFF passing grade, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, the Cardinals have been tough on passers ranking tenth in EPA per dropback, 11th in explosive pass rate, and 15th in yards per attempt. Garoppolo is a QB2.

Kyler Murray: Murray will be out this week as Colt McCoy gets another start.

Running Backs

Week 10

Christian McCaffrey: Last week, McCaffrey played 63% of the snaps with 18 touches and 77 total yards as the RB11. While Mitchell helped shoulder the early down load, McCaffrey still gobbled up the routes with a 73.3% route run rate. McCaffrey ceded more red zone work to Mitchell than we’d probably like, but it doesn’t matter. You’re still starting McCaffrey weekly as a matchup-proof RB1. McCaffrey is 13th in evaded tackles, 23rd in breakaway run rate, and third in yards per route run. Since Week 5, Arizona is 16th in rushing yards per game, 23rd in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey should have a field day against a defense that’s 30th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the third-highest yard per reception and third-most receiving touchdowns.

Elijah Mitchell: In his first game back, Mitchell played 25 snaps handling 19 touches with 88 total yards. Mitchell looked fully healthy with 2.92 yards after contact per attempt and five missed tackles forced. In this plus matchup on the ground, Mitchell is an upside RB3 if he’s going to see 12-15 touches weekly with red zone work.

James Conner: Conner screamed he was back last week. He played 96% of the snaps handling 24 touches with 86 total yards and two scores. In his two games since returning from injury, Conner has managed 4.43 and 2.43 yards after contact per attempt, with four missed tackles, forced. Those numbers are par for the course for Conner. The 49ers remain a nightmare matchup for rushers ranking fourth in rushing yards per game, 13th in EPA per rush, and fourth in explosive run rate since Week 5. Conner can overcome an inefficient day with volume and touchdown equity like last week when he was the RB3 in fantasy. Conner is an RB1.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel: In Samuel’s six games played with Garoppolo under center this season, he’s finished as a top 20 wide receiver only twice (WR6, WR19). Since Week 3, Samuel has had a 23.6% Target share (7.8 targets per game), a 27.3% end zone Target share, and 2.03 yards per route run. Samuel has been utilized as a short-area weapon this season with only four deep targets and a 4.8 aDOT (101st). While he hasn’t been a downfield threat, he is involved near the goal line with nine red zone targets (20th). Samuel is a WR2.

Brandon Aiyuk: Since Week 3, Aiyuk has a 22.7% Target share, a 28.4% air yard share (9.1 aDOT), and 2.12 yards per route run. Aiyuk is the WR21 in fantasy points per game ranking 11th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 20 targets) and 20th in yards per route run. Aiyuk is tied with Samuel with nine red zone targets. Aiyuk is a WR2.

DeAndre Hopkins: Since his return, Hopkins has been playing out of his mind as the WR5 in fantasy points per game. Hopkins has a 32.9% Target share (first) and 45.8% air yard share (45.8%). He’s seventh in yards per route run. Even with Murray out of the lineup last week, Hopkins drew 14 targets, snagging ten balls with 98 receiving yards as the WR12 for the week. Hopkins will run about 74% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (78.6% catch rate, 102.9 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (58.5% catch rate, 81.7 passer rating). Hopkins is a weekly WR1, regardless of who is throwing him the ball.

Rondale Moore: Moore is having one of the quietest breakout seasons in recent memory. He’s the WR29 in fantasy which is underselling his four WR2 or better weeks in seven games this season. Since Week 8, he hasn’t finished lower than WR16 in fantasy. Moore has a 22.9% Target share and a 22.7% target per route run rate. He has a red zone target in each game played this season. Moore will match up with Jimmie Ward (100% catch rate, 143.8 passer rating) in the slot on 57% of his routes as a WR2.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle is a weekly must-start, and TE1. He’s the TE7 in fantasy points per game with a 19.2% Target share (seventh) and 14.9% air yard share (ninth). Kittle will destroy Arizona this week. The Cardinals are 31st in DVOA, allowing the most receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and highest catch rate to tight ends.

Trey McBride: McBride is a stash, but don’t start him this week. He should take over the every down tight end role without Zach Ertz in the lineup. Last week McBride only drew one target but had an 82.1% route run rate. As a top prospect known for his receiving prowess in the draft process, McBride has Greg Dulcich-type upside down the stretch. The 49ers are 11th in DVOA against tight ends, conceding the seventh-fewest receiving yards and second-lowest yards per reception.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -2.5, O/U 42
• Titans vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Slow. The best word to describe the play volume environments as Green Bay is 27th in neutral pace, and Tennessee is 31st.
• Each team has a well-established identity. The Packers have shifted to more of a run-balanced approach (15th in neutral passing rate), but they will still go only as far as Aaron Rodgers can take them. Tennessee is all Derrick Henry all the time, as they are fourth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is a weekly QB2. Considering the make-shift wide receiver group he’s throwing to, Tannehill has played well this season. Tannehill is 18th in PFF passing grade and 11th in adjusted completion rate and yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). With his paper-thin receiving group, he’s only 29th in big-time throw rate. Green Bay is 21st in yards per attempt allowed, and since week 6, they are sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Packers have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is still playing excellent football. He is ninth in PFF passing grade, third in big-time throw rate, and 14th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Christian Watson ascension could also restore his weekly ceiling possibilities with a healthy Allen Lazard. Tennessee is 11th in yards per attempt (tied), 14th in passing touchdown rate, and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers could rip them in half with the deep ball. The Titans have permitted the highest deep completion rate and the most deep passing yards in the NFL. Rodgers is a QB1.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry: It was bound to happen eventually. A team finally held Henry under 100 rushing yards. The Broncos were the first team to do so since Week 3. Despite that bump in the road, Henry is the RB5 averaging 24.2 touches and 119.7 total yards. The Packers don’t have a prayer in keeping Henry below the century mark this week. Henry is tenth in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced, and 24th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Green Bay is ranked 25th or lower in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. The Packers have given up the tenth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Henry is a smash RB1.

Weeks 7-10

Aaron Jones: Jones is the RB12 in fantasy as he has reclaimed his overwhelming lead role in this backfield. Since Week 7, in every game where he’s been healthy, he’s played at least 67% of the snaps averaging 22.3 touches and 129.6 total yards. Jones remains an incredibly explosive player ranking eighth in yards per touch, 17th in yards per route run, and seventh in breakaway run rate. Jones remains an RB1 despite a frightening matchup this week. The Titans remain an elite run defense, ranking second in rushing yards per game, third in EPA per rush, and ninth in explosive run rate allowed. They have surrendered only one rushing touchdown to running backs this season and the third-fewest fantasy points per game. Jones’ prospects don’t improve through the air against a team that’s fourth in DVOA against receiving backs with the fifth-lowest yards per reception conceded.

A.J. Dillon: Since Week 7, Dillon has been averaging 10.3 touches and 46.8 total yards with two top-36 finishes (RB30, RB35). Despite splitting the red zone work with Jones evenly over the last four games, Dillon hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Dillon is a tackle-breaking volume back, ranking 13th in juke rate and 14th in evaded tackles but 46th in yards per touch and 43rd in breakaway run rate. Against a nightmare fuel run defense and a limited volume ceiling, Dillon is an RB3 with the ability to fall into the endzone any week.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods: Different week, same story for Woods. An aging wide receiver with locker room and run game contributions (blocking) that are essential to the Titans’ real-life success but don’t matter in the slightest for fantasy football. Woods has crossed 40 receiving yards once this season. He has one red zone target over his last four games. His 4.8 targets per game are waiver-wire-worthy. Woods should not be rostered nor started in fantasy football. Woods will run about 67% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (58.5% catch rate, 66.6 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (68.6% catch rate, 85.4 passer rating).

Treylon Burks: Burks returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 4. The Titans wasted no time reinstalling him into the offense with a 16.2% Target share (six targets) and 76% route run rate. The issue for Burks is not only the Tennessee offensive design but his role in the offense currently. Burks is being asked to operate as a short-area YAC receiver. Last week his aDOT was 3.3, and he only had a 7.4% air yard share. Burks remains a stash, as his role could evolve down the stretch, but this isn’t the week for him to be considered for your lineups. The Packers have yielded the ninth-lowest YAC, and the 13th-fewest missed tackles. Burks will run about 80% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas.

Allen Lazard: The Packers receivers might get to avoid dealing with Kristian Fulton this week, as he missed last week’s game (hamstring). We’ll have to see how the practice reports shake out, but in a short week, he may sit again. Last week Lazard only drew four targets dealing with Trevon Diggs for much of the game. He has a 20.8% Target share with 31.2% of the team’s air yards this season. Lazard is seventh in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. Lazard is the WR19 in fantasy, ranking 32nd in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s a WR2 that will run about 57% of his routes against Terrance Mitchell (61.9% catch rate, 99.2 passer rating) and the duo of Roger McCreary (75.5% catch rate, 107.4 passer rating) and Tre Avery (allowed all three targets in coverage to be secured, 158.3 passer rating). The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Christian Watson: The Christian Watson explosion game finally happened, and it was glorious. Breathtaking. A work of art. Ok. I know I’m laying it on thick here, but Watson has been a prospect I’ve loved since watching him shred corners at Senior Bowl practices. He commanded a 42.1% Target share, snagging four balls for 107 receiving yards and three scores. Watson finished as the WR3 in fantasy scoring for Week 10 behind only CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. Only Watson (91.3% route run rate) and Allen Lazard were full-time players last week. This week, Watson is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 with a massive upside. He’ll run about 63% of his routes against Mitchell, McCreary, and Avery.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan’s usage fluctuates weekly as his route run rate has dipped as low as 41% and risen as high as 84%. Yes, I know that’s a wide range of variability. Tonyan is a matchup-based TE2. He’s a viable streamer if you’re in a pinch. Tonyan has a 14.3% targets share, seeing six red zone targets (11th) this season. He’s finished as a TE1 twice this season. He’s 34th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Tennessee is sixth in receiving yards and fifth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB