Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

• WAS -3, O/U 40.5
• Commanders vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• A ho-hum play volume affair as both teams are outside the top 20 in neutral pace (WAS 24th, HOU 25th).
• The Commanders are ruled by the run (sixth in neutral rushing rate), while the Texans operate a balanced offense (17th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Taylor Heinicke: Toss the ugly win against Philly in the trash for Heinicke. In his previous three games, he was the QB13, QB8, and QB15. He’s a mid-range QB2 that could sneak into the top 12 this week. Yep. I said it. Heinicke has rushing equity that can help his weekly floor and ceiling in any game. He’s 12th in carries per game. He’s also been quietly good at chucking it deep, ranking sixth in deep ball accuracy and 11th in deep ball completion rate. The Texans’ pass defense has been just as wretched as their run defense, but it’s been hidden as they have faced the third-fewest pass attempts per game. Since Week 5, they are giving up the ninth-highest success rate per dropback, 10th-highest EPA per drop back, and fourth-highest yards per attempt. During that same stretch, they are 27th in explosive pass rate allowed. Houston has given up big plays downfield when teams are willing to forgo the easy production on the ground. The Texans are 13th in deep passing yards and 11th in deep passing touchdowns allowed.

Davis Mills: Mills has faced two defenses inside the top ten in pressure rate since Week 5. Against them, he finished as the QB20 and QB24 with 5.9 yards per attempt. Since Week 5, Washington is second in pressure rate, and their secondary has come together. Over their last six games, the Commanders are fifth in passing yards per game, seventh in EPA per drop back, and tenth in yards per attempt. Sit Mills against a defense that just gave Jalen Hurts fits.

Running Backs

Week 10

Brian Robinson: Robinson was the early down banger last week with 26 carries and 86 rushing yards (one touchdown). He had a near-even split with Gibson for red zone work. Robinson played a season-high 52% of snaps. He’s failed to draw a target in four of his six games played, so don’t count on pass-game production as part of his fantasy outlook. Robinson has averaged 16.2 touches and 52 total yards. He’s logged three games with 17 or more carries. The rushing efficiency for Robinson has been putrid as he ranks 56th in yards after contact per attempt, 52nd in breakaway rate, and 53rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Robinson has finished as an RB3 or better in three of six games (RB19, RB29, RB15), and inside the top 20 rushers in the two weeks, he got into the end zone. Houston remains arguably the worst run defense in the league, ranking 32nd in rushing yards per game, 30th in EPA per rush, and 32nd in explosive run rate since Week 5. Robinson is an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets into the end zone.

Antonio Gibson: Over the last two weeks without McKissic, Gibson has averaged 53% of the snaps played with 15 touches and 52.5 total yards. Gibson was the RB28 and RB14 in fantasy scoring. Since Week 6, among 56 running backs with at least 15 carries, Gibson is 35th in yards after contact per attempt, 33rd in breakaway rate, and 44th in PFF’s elusive rating. The small efficiency bump he witnessed in a split role has evaporated over time. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen an 11.8% Target share with a 56.2% route run rate. Gibson is an RB3 that has top-20 upside if he scores a touchdown.

J.D. McKissic: McKissic has been ruled out.

Dameon Pierce: Pierce is the RB14 in fantasy averaging 22.8 touches and 111.7 total yards since Week 3. Since Week 8, Pierce has played at least 72% of snaps weekly. Despite ranking fifth in red-zone touches, he only has four touchdowns this season, so he’s due some touchdown regression in the upcoming weeks. Pierce continues to crush weekly, ranking fourth in evaded tackles, 14th in juke rate, and tenth in breakaway runs. He’s managed a 9.4% Target share (23rd). Pierce is tenth in opportunity share and 11th in weighted opportunity. Washington has proven to be one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Since Week 5, they are eighth in rushing yards per game, seventh in EPA per rush, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Pierce is a volume RB2 despite the bad matchup.

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is a baller. Heinicke has been a godsend because he understands this fact. Just throw him the ball, and he’ll make good things happen. Since Week 7 with Heinicke under center, McLaurin has a 31.9% Target share (nine targets per game), averaging 92.5 receiving yards per game with an otherworldly 55.8% air yard share. In these last four games, McLaurin has finished as the WR11, WR17, WR26, AND WR10. The only knock on his usage is that he has only one touchdown and one red zone target with Heinicke. Since Week 7, McLaurin has been fourth in PFF receiving grade and tenth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 67% of his routes against Steven Nelson (60.6% catch rate, 75.1 passer rating) and Desmond King (69.6% catch rate, 74.9 passer rating). If McLaurin can make Darius Slay and James Bradberry look foolish, there isn’t a cornerback that he can’t win against.

Curtis Samuel: With Heinicke, Samuel has a 17.7% Target share averaging 49 receiving yards and a 20.5% air yard share. Excluding the Vikings game, where a referee ran a pick for him, Samuel has one top-36 wide receiver finish with Heinicke. The red zone concerns that McLaurin is dealing with extend to Samuel, who has one red zone target over the last four games. Samuel will run about 66% of his routes against Tavierre Thomas (2021: 65% catch rate, 71.7 passer rating). Since Week 5, Houston has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Samuel is a WR4.

Jahan Dotson: Last week, in his first game action since Week 4, Dotson played 41% of snaps with a 48.4% route run rate. He drew only one target. Dotson isn’t startable until his routes per dropback rise.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks missed practice on Wednesday but was a full participant on Thursday and Friday. Cooks is WR45 in fantasy with a 22.6% Target share and 28.4% air yard share. He has drawn only four red zone targets this season (only one since Week 5). He’s 60th in PFF receiving grade and 57th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Over his last four games, Cooks’ best fantasy finish was WR37. He’s a low-ceiling WR4.

Nico Collins: Last week, Collins returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 7. He played 78% of the snaps with a 27% Target share (ten targets) and an 80% route run rate. Overall this season, Collins is the WR51 in fantasy points per game with two games as a WR3 or better. Collins has been used in the intermediate portions of the field with only six deep targets and a minimal red zone role (four red zone targets). The positive for Collins is that the red zone usage could be changing, as he drew three targets inside the 20 last week. Collins is a WR3 that will run about 55% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (61.7% catch rate, 115.7 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: Thomas is a TE2. Over the last two games, he’s played at least 72% of snaps (67.2% route run rate) with a 13.7% Target share (3.5 targets per game) and only six receiving yards per game. The Texans have been a slightly above-average matchup for tight ends with the 11th-highest yards per reception, 13th-highest catch rate, and the tenth-most receiving touchdowns (tied).

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -3, O/U 41.5
• Raiders vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game looks gross, but it might offer one of the highest ceilings for play volume and passing attempts.
• Each team ranks inside the top 12 in neutral pace (DEN sixth, LVR 12th) and neutral passing rate (DEN 11th, LVR fifth).

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr has looked terrible for much of the season. He’s 22nd in PFF passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 16th in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks) as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Carr and Josh McDaniels are headed for another frustrating week against an elite Denver secondary. Since Week 5, they are third in passing yards per game, third in EPA per drop back, and fourth in explosive pass rate allowed. They have permitted the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Carr is a nightmare-inducing QB2.

Russell Wilson: Wilson gets a return engagement with the defense that allowed his most productive game of the season. In Week 4, he was the QB3 in fantasy with 9.5 yards per attempt, three total touchdowns (one rushing), and 29 yards on the ground. Since Week 4, Wilson has still struggled to find his footing, ranking 31st in PFF passing grade, 29th in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Over his last four games, he has finished higher than QB16 only once. Wilson is a QB2 with some upside against a floundering Raiders defense. Since Week 5, this pass defense has surrendered the highest success rate per dropback and second-highest EPA per dropback while also sitting at 26th in passing yards per game.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been a volume monster as the RB6 in fantasy averaging 21.1 touches and 113.4 total yards. He gets a return engagement with a team he torched for 175 total yards and two scores (RB2) in Week 4. Jacobs hasn’t rushed for at least 100 yards since Week 7. He did, however, see a season-high eight targets in Week 10. Jacobs is second in opportunity share, sixth in weighted opportunities, and 16th in red zone touches. He has been effective with his workload, ranking fifth in juke rate, first in evaded tackles, and tenth in breakaway runs. Since their last meeting, Denver has picked it up on run defense. Since Week 5, the Broncos are 12th in rushing yards per game, eighth in EPA per rush, and tenth in explosive run rate allowed. They are also second in DVOA against receiving backs, holding them to the lowest yards per reception (since Week 5). Jacobs is an RB1 based on volume, but temper your expectations this week.

Week 10

Melvin Gordon: Last week, Gordon retained his role as the lead back, playing 54% of the snaps with 11 touches and 70 total yards. Gordon was second to Murray in rushing attempts, but he was the passing down back. Gordon continues to run like a geriatric back, ranking 48th in juke rate, 48th in evaded tackles, and 51st in breakaway run rate. Gordon has finished as an RB3 or better in each of his last three games (RB37, RB19, RB22). Since Week 5, the Raiders are 24th in rushing yards per game, 20th in EPA per rush, and 14th in explosive run rate. If Gordon holds off Edmonds and retains the pass game role, he’s a sneaky RB2/3 this week. Las Vegas is 32nd in DVOA, allowing the sixth-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and fourth-highest yards per reception (tied).

Latavius Murray: Last week, Murray played 31% of the snaps with 12 touches and 47 total yards. Murray will factor into the early downs, the red zone, and the passing game. Murray makes Gordon look like a young buck as he ranks outside the top 50 backs in yards per touch and yards created per touch. Murray is a low-end flex that could flop into the endzone.

Chase Edmonds: Edmonds played 15 snaps last week with two targets, three touches, and nine total yards. He was an afterthought in Miami and likely will be in Denver.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams is the WR5 in fantasy with a ridiculous 32.0% Target share (third) and 38.3% air yard share (ninth). Adams has been unstoppable for most of the season outside of his flu game in the Big Easy. Adams has finished as a WR1 in five of his nine games. He’s fifth in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Adams will run about 66% of his routes against Patrick Surtain lll (56.1% catch rate, 64.7 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (72.5% catch rate, 103.5 passer rating). Surtain could shadow Adams as he did during the last game when he followed him on 72% of his routes, limiting him to nine targets, five receptions, and 54 scoreless yards. Adams has been listed as questionable (abdomen). Adams is a WR1.

Mack Hollins: Hollins is the WR50 in fantasy with a 15.9% Target share and 26.2% air yard share. He’s fifth in aDOT and 11th in deep targets as the Raiders’ field stretcher. He’s also factored into the red zone with eight targets (26th). Hollins is a WR5/flex who could get a boost if Surtain follows Adams. That would put Mathis on Hollins for most of the day.

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has been ruled out (ankle). 

Courtland Sutton: The slide for Sutton has been saddening to watch. He’s dipped all the way to WR36 in fantasy points per game. He’s finished as the WR68, WR67, WR76, AND WR32 over his last four games. Last week with Jeudy out, he saw 11 targets, his highest mark since Week 5. Sutton has a 24.4% Target share and a 28.6% air yard share. He’s ranked 64th in PFF receiving grade and 56th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Sutton is still seventh in deep targets and 20th in red zone targets. Sutton will run about 87% of his routes against Sam Webb (62.5% catch rate, 75.0 passer rating) and Rock Ya-Sin (56.1% catch rate, 71.2 passer rating). Sutton is a WR3.

Tight Ends

Foster Moreau: Since Week 7, Moreau has played at least 96% of the snaps weekly with a 16.5% Target share and 1.13 yards per route run. Over the last four weeks, he’s seen only two red zone targets which both came last week. Moreau is a borderline TE1/2. Denver is sixth in DVOA against the position holding tight ends to the 11th-lowest yards per reception. The Broncos have faced the eighth-most tight end targets and rank 13th in receiving yards as opposing teams attempt to stay away from their cornerbacks.

Greg Dulcich: Last week was Dulcich’s first game outside the top 12 fantasy tight ends. He was TE11, TE7, and TE9 in his first three NFL games. He’s garnered a 15.6% Target share (14th) with six deep targets (fifth) in only four games. Dulcich is tenth in yards per route run. Las Vegas is 20th in DVOA, allowing the fourth-most receiving touchdowns and eighth-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Dulcich is a TE1.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

• DAL -1.5, O/U 48.5
• Cowboys vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Cowboys are back, baby! Since Week 9 with Dak Prescott back, Dallas ranks second in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
• Kevin O’Connell continues to ingratiate himself with the fantasy community as the Vikings are sixth and 11th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Since his return to the starting lineup Prescott has been lights out as the QB4 and QB7 in fantasy. In this two-game snippet, he’s sixth in PFF passing grade, tenth in adjusted completion rate and ninth in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Prescott is a top-five fantasy quarterback this week in what could be the shootout game of the week. Since Week 5, Minnesota has been 29th in passing yards per game and 30th in explosive pass rate. They have given up the second-most fantasy points per game over this span. In this sample, Minnesota is also seventh in pressure rate, so Prescott will have to deal with rushers in his face this week. Over his last two starts, Prescott is fourth in PFF pressured passing grade and tenth in pressured passer rating (minimum ten pressured dropbacks).

Kirk Cousins: The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been a standout unit this season. The Cowboys have held opponents to the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, fourth-lowest EPA per dropback, and the second-lowest explosive pass rate. The problem in big D is that their secondary is decimated now. Jourdan Lewis is out for the season (foot) and Anthony Brown left last week’s game with a concussion. Brown practiced in full on Friday, so it looks like he’ll be back this week. Aaron Rodgers completed 70% of his passes with 11.2 yards per attempt and a 146.7 passer rating last week with Christian Watson going nuclear. Cousins was only the QB16 last week,, but he tossed for 357 yards completing 60% of his passes with a score against the Bills’ top shelf pass defense. Cousins is a QB1.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott: Eliott was limited in practice all week and has been listed as questionable. It looks like he’ll return to the lineup this week. In his last two games played, Elliott has averaged 14.5 touches and 71.5 total yards per game. Elliott is a plodding RB3 at this stage of his career. He’s 44th in juke rate, 35th in evaded tackles, and 54th in yards created per touch. The Vikings are an elite run defense, ranking sixth in rushing yards per game, first in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed.

Tony Pollard: Pollard returns to a committee with Elliott. Over his last two games with Elliott active, he averaged 14 touches and 80.5 total yards. Pollard is the RB17 in fantasy after a few weeks of dominating as the lead back. Pollard is one of the best backs in the NFL, ranking third in yards per touch, 19th in evaded tackles, sixth in breakaway run rate, and 21st in yards per route run. Sadly he’s only an RB3 with Elliott dragging him down.

Dalvin Cook: Cook is the RB10 in fantasy averaging 18.5 touches and 97.0 total yards per game. Minnesota has been careful not to lean on Cook too hard, as he only has three games this season with 20 carries. This has hurt his rushing yards numbers, as he’s only crossed the century mark twice. Cook has been fresh, though, ranking 12th in yards after contact per attempt, 23rd in breakaway rate, and 20th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Helping to supplement some of the lost rushing volume is his pass game usage increase since Week 8 with a 14.2% Target share (at least five targets in each game). Cook is 14th in red zone touches and 12th in weighted opportunities. Dallas has been gashed by running backs since Week 5. They are 29th in rushing yards per game, 15th in EPA per rush, and 22nd in explosive run rate. They have been tough on pass-catching backs ranking ninth in DVOA. Cook is a strong RB1 who could easily finish as a top-five running back this week in a possible shootout.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb squaring & shaking Jaire Alexander??? pic.twitter.com/5Lf3HHi9W0

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 16, 2022

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR9 in fantasy with a beautiful 32.1% Target share (second-best), 33.3% target per route run rate (third), and 39.4% air yard share (sixth). He’s also 11th in deep targets with a recent spike in red zone usage (five red zone targets over his last five games). Lamb has finished as the WR12 and WR1 over the last two weeks with Prescott back in the huddle. He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Lamb will run about 55% of his routes from the slot against Chandon Sullivan (84% catch rate, 118.4 passer rating). Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. Lamb is a top-five wide receiver this week.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 11, CeeDee Lamb is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Michael Gallup: With Prescott back, Gallup has an 18.8% Target share (6.5 targets per game) over the last two weeks. Gallup hasn’t done much with the usage, though, as he’s averaged 42 receiving yards per game with 1.29 yards per route run. That’s been the story of Gallup’s 2022 season, though, as he’s 74th in PFF receiving grade and 85th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Gallup only has three red zone targets this season and has yet to surpass 50 receiving yards in any game. Gallup will run about 90% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (55% catch rate, 63.4 passer rating), Akayleb Evans (76.9% catch rate, 127.4 passer rating), and Andrew Booth Jr. (85.7% catch rate, 106.5 passer rating). With the juicy matchup, Gallup is a WR3/4 this week.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is an elite talent. He’s the WR2 in fantasy points per game with a 30.3% Target share (sixth) and 39.3% air-yard share (seventh). He’s 18th in deep targets (12) and first in red zone targets (18). Jefferson has six 100-yard receiving games and eclipsed 140 yards four times. He’s third in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). I look for Dallas to let Trevon Diggs shadow Jefferson this week. Diggs has followed receivers twice this season, tracking Allen Lazard and A.J. Brown on 62-67% of their routes, holding them to four targets, two receptions, and 20 scoreless receiving yards. Jefferson is up to the task. He’s an elite WR1 play weekly.

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. If Diggs is in Jefferson’s back pocket this week, he could see a bump in his usage. Thielen has a 19.4% Target share and 24.9% air yard share with 11 red zone targets (eighth). He’s 51st in PFF receiving grade and 74th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’s slowing down, but this could be a short-lived revival game. If Diggs is covering Jefferson, Thielen should see Anthony Brown (59.7% catch rate, 101.2 passer rating) for most of the day. . Thielen is a WR3 who could surprise this week.

Tight Ends

Week 10 TE route involvement leaders

93% – Foster Moreau, George Kittle
90% – Pat Freiermuth
89% – Kyle Pitts
88% – TJ Hockenson
85% – Evan Engram
82% – Greg Dulcich, Dawson Knox
80% – Trey McBride
77% – Cole Kmet
76% – Harrison Bryant
73% – Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022

Dalton Schultz: Last week, Schultz saw his highest snap rate (76%) since Week 4. His route run rate jumped to 72.9%, which means he’s finally healthy, so it’s wheels up. Since Prescott’s return, Schultz has a 21.7% Target share (7.5 targets per game) with a 40% end zone Target share and 2.56 yards per route run. These are all stellar numbers. Schultz has been the TE5 and TE3 for the week in his last two games. Schultz has been the WR2 essentially in this offense. He should smash the Vikings, who have allowed the ninth-highest catch rate, ninth-highest yards per reception, and tenth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Schultz is a top-five tight end.

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson has been Cousins’ best friend since arriving in Minnesota. In his first two games, he’s averaging 9.5 targets (21.3% Target share), eight receptions, and 57.5 receiving yards per game. Since Week 9, among 31 tight ends with at least five targets, Hockenson is 13th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run with four red zone targets. Dallas will be a tough assignment for Hockenson, though. Dallas has held tight ends to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. They have allowed only one receiving touchdown to tight ends. Hockenson is a TE1.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• CIN -3.5, O/U 40.5
• Bengals vs. Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bengals have hit the brakes, dropping to 17th in neutral pace while they continue to rely on Joe Burrow (second in neutral passing rate).
• The Steelers continue to operate inefficiently, with the 13th-highest neutral pace and passing rates.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Burrow hasn’t seen this secondary since Week 1, when he tossed four picks, but he still was the QB6 for the week with 338 passing yards, 47 rushing yards, and two passing touchdowns. Without his bae, Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow has averaged 219 passing yards, completing 74.6% of his passes with 6.9 yards per attempt. He was the QB22 and QB7 in fantasy, with the latter being puffed up by a rushing score in Week 9. Since Week 8, Burrow is still playing extremely good football with the fifth-highest PFF passing grade, second-highest adjusted completion rate, and ranking 17th in big-time throw rate. Pittsburgh has been reeling as of late, trying to slow down opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 5, they are 31st in passing yards per game, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Over their last five games, they are sixth in fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks. Burrow’s ceiling is elevated this week. He’s a mid-range QB1 that could surpass expectations.

Kenny Pickett: Last week, Pickett displayed some upside as a QB2 against the Saints. He concluded the week as the QB12 in fantasy on the strength of 51 rushing yards and a rushing score. His passing numbers offered hope, too, as he was 15th in PFF passing grade, seventh in big-time throws (tied), and 14th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 8, the Bengals haven’t been the same pass defense. Losing Chidobe Awuzie has been tough for them. Over their last two games, the Bengals are 27th in EPA per dropback, 26th in explosive pass rate, and have surrendered the fifth-highest yards per attempt. Pickett falls into a similar bucket as Taylor Heinicke this week as an ugly quarterback who sneakily offers top-12 upside.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon is fourth in opportunity share, fourth in weight opportunities, and first in red zone touches as the RB7 in fantasy. Mixon has averaged 21 touches and 95.2 total yards. He remains grossly inefficient with his volume outside of his legendary performance against Carolina. Mixon is 56th in juke rate, 35th in evaded tackles, and 39th in yards created per touch. Mixon is seventh in Target share (14.8%) and 16th in yards per route run. Mixon is an RB1 because of his stable high-volume workload, but the Steelers’ defense has been unforgiving against running backs. Since Week 5, they are third in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed.

Week 10

Najee Harris: Harris has seen his snap share drop in three consecutive games from 71% to 60% as Warren has been working in more. Last week Harris logged 20 carries with 99 rushing yards while seeing only one target in the passing game. He almost evenly split the pass game routes and red zone work with Warren. Harris has been inefficient this season, leaving yards on the field. He’s 39th in yards after contact per attempt, 43rd in breakaway run rate, and 35th in PFF’s elusive rating. Harris is 35th in yards per route run. He’s the RB29 in fantasy points per game, finishing as an RB2 or better in only three games. Cincinnati could be a nice bounce-back spot for Harris as they have fallen off a cliff as a run defense. Since Week 5, they are 27th in rushing yards per game, 29th in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. Harris is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

Jaylen Warren's game-sealing first down run was casually epic pic.twitter.com/7PauPGeTvn

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 16, 2022

Jaylen Warren: Warren is an explosive playmaker. Over the last two weeks, he’s turned his 10.5 touches per game into 76 total yards. He finished as the RB28 and RB23. Warren is 15th in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries), seventh in PFF receiving grade, and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He played 43% of the snaps last week, which was his second-highest mark of the season. Warren is an RB3/high-end flex who could easily break off a long run or two this week.

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins: Without Chase in the lineup, Higgins has a 22.2% Target share (seven targets per game) with a 38.4% air yard share and 1.6 yards per route run. Overall Higgins is the WR27 in fantasy with a 23.3% Target share and 2.09 yards per route run in his healthy games played. Higgins has four red zone targets over his last four games. Higgins will run about 77% of his routes against Levi Wallace (57.1% catch rate, 81.6 passer rating) and Cameron Sutton (57.1% catch rate, 83.9 passer rating). Higgins is a WR2 that could explode this week.

Tyler Boyd: Since Week 8, Boyd has had a 15.9% Target share and 24.9% air yard share with 1.23 yards per route run. Without Chase, he has finished as the WR28 and WR32. He’s had consistent red zone involvement with one red zone target in each of his last three games. Boyd is 25th in PFF receiving grade and 51st in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’ll run about 81% of his routes from the slot against Arthur Maulet (76% catch rate, 115.4 passer rating). Pittsburgh has allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. Boyd is a low-end WR/high-end WR3.

Diontae Johnson: With Pickett under center, Johnson has a 23.3% Target share, 45.5% end zone Target share, and 36.4% air yard share (1.09 yards per route run). Over his last five games, he’s finished as WR3 or higher only once (WR36). Johnson is a massive touchdown regression candidate. Over the last five games, he has had ten red zone targets without scoring a touchdown. Johnson is a WR3 that will run about 89% of his routes against Eli Apple (60% catch rate, 97.0 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (85.7% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating).

George Pickens: In Pickett’s full games as a starter, Pickens has a 13.2% Target share with a 21.7% air yard share (1.03 yards per route run). In those four weeks, Pickens has finished as a top 36 wide receiver three times (WR21, WR12, WR26). Pickens has four red zone targets over his last five games. He will run about 87% of his routes against Apple and Taylor-Britt as a WR3.

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is the TE13 in fantasy with TE19 and TE14 weeks without Chase in the lineup. Hurst has a 14.5% Target share (17th) this season while ranking tenth in route participation. Hurst is tenth in red zone targets among tight ends. Hurst is a TE2 squaring off against one of the best teams in the league at defending the position. Pittsburgh is fourth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the seventh-lowest catch rate and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has been knocking at the door of massive games all season long. Freiermuth has only one touchdown this season while logging three games of at least 75 receiving yards. He’s the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 19.4% Target share (sixth) and 19.8% air yard share (fifth). Freiermuth is second in deep targets (nine) among tight ends with five red zone looks. The Bengals are a middle-of-the-road defense against the position, ranking 16th in catch rate and 19th in yards per reception. Freiermuth has a massive game coming when he can string a touchdown with these receiving yardage totals. He’s a weekly TE1.

CHI vs. ATL | CLE vs. BUF | PHI vs. IND | NYJ vs. NE | LAR vs. NO | DET vs. NYG | CAR vs. BAL | WAS vs. HOU | LV vs. DEN | DAL vs. MIN | CIN vs. PIT | KC vs. LAC | SF vs. ARI | TEN vs. GB