Fantasy Football Heat Index: Justin Fields, Allen Lazard, Joe Mixon (2022)

Welcome to The Heat Index!

For those unfamiliar with the column, every Monday during the NFL season, we dig into the players whose performances through Sunday jumped out to us the most. Along with their stats (half-point PPR scoring) and positional rank for the week, we’ll rank their rest-of-season prospects on a scale of ? to ?????. A few players we gave up on early in the season made their presence felt in Week 9 and are firmly back on the fantasy radar.

Quarterback

Justin Fields (QB – CHI)

• Stat-line:  17 of 28 passing for 178 yards with three TDs, a 2pt conversion, and no INTs; 178 yards rushing with a TD
• QB Rank:  1

Analysis:  After looking like a bust through Week 4, Fields has been a top-ten fantasy QB over the past five weeks. He’s throwing more often, completing a higher percentage of passes, and running more effectively. The second-year QB is starting to get it and is developing into the dual-threat option we all hoped he could be. Though he didn’t do much today, the addition of Chase Claypool (WR – CHI) will only help. Fields’ schedule looks promising also, especially in the next two weeks when he faces Detroit and Atlanta. If you need a QB, look no further.

Heat Index:  ????

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard (WR – GB)

• Stat-line:  Four receptions off ten targets for 87 yards and a TD
• WR Rank:  8

Analysis:  Lazard is one of the few Packers worth starting every week. Provided he is healthy, of course. He’s been incredibly consistent this season when he plays the entire game, only once failing to score in double-digits. Lazard appears to be the only receiver that Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) truly trusts, especially in the red zone. As long as he’s active, he belongs in fantasy lineups, given his TD equity and volume.

Heat Index:  ????

Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS)

• Stat-line:  Three receptions off four targets for 65 yards and a TD; 16 yards rushing
• WR Rank:  9

Analysis:  Samuel got off to a great start this season when Carson Wentz (QB – WAS) was chucking the ball over 40 times per game, and he found the end zone twice in the first two games. Samuel cooled off after Week 2 but has only had one really bad week. He’s almost always on the field and gets touches in the running game in addition to his pass-catching. Until Sunday, Samuel has lacked big plays, as he tends to catch the ball close to the line of scrimmage. He came into Week 9 with an aDOT of only 5.6 yards. His 49-yard TD catch against the Vikings was beautiful, although he got some help from the ref. Samuel doesn’t figure to light up the fantasy scoreboard often, but he has a solid floor and should be a WR3 or flex consideration weekly.

Heat Index:  ???

Running Back

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

• Stat-line:  Twenty-two carries for 153 yards with four TDs; four catches off five targets for 58 yards with a TD
• RB Rank:  1

Analysis: It’s unlikely any fantasy managers benched Joe Mixon, but the veteran RB had yet to deliver on his draft position until Sunday. Coming into the game, Mixon was RB19 on a points-per-game basis this season, averaging only 12.5 points. Those numbers aren’t atrocious, but they are not what you expect from your first or second-round pick. All the negative energy surrounding Mixon evaporated against the Panthers, though, as he put together a career day. Now the question is, what can we expect going forward? After Cincinnati’s bye next week, the schedule doesn’t look great for the running back. However, the team will likely try to lean on him until Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) returns, so the volume should be good. The guess here is that he’ll be a solid RB2 the rest of the way, so if you’re able to sell high coming off this performance, you should consider it. 

Heat Index:  ???

Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB – MIA)

• Stat-line:  Nine carries for 51 yards; three receptions off three targets for 21 yards with a TD
• RB Rank:  9

Analysis:  Wilson was on the Heat Index after Week 5, but a lot has changed for him since then. In his Dolphins’ debut, Wilson out-touched Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) 12 to nine. His usage was unexpectedly high after such a quick turnaround, which bodes well for his fantasy viability with his new team. The difference between Wilson and Mostert was in the passing game, where Wilson caught three passes to none for Mostert (though he was targeted twice). If this game is any indication, the Dolphins look like they are going split the snaps between the two backs, which is good news for Wilson managers, and bad news for Mostert.

Heat Index:  ???

Raheem Blackshear (RB – CAR)

• Stat-line:  Five carries for 13 yards with a TD; four receptions off four targets for 40 yards
• RB Rank:  12

Analysis:  Blackshear came out of nowhere to be one of the Panthers’ best fantasy producers in Week 9. However, this game was over early, and much of his scoring came via a TD. His four catches are interesting, and he may assume the Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) role in the offense until Hubbard returns from injury. It doesn’t sound like Chuba will miss too much more time, though, so Blackshear is likely a one-week wonder.

Heat Index:  ??

Tight End

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)

• Stat-line:  Five receptions off six targets for 41 yards with two TDs; Nine yards rushing
• TE Rank:  2

Analysis:  Kmet did not score a TD last season despite 60 catches. Thus, many fantasy analysts felt regression would lead to a big 2022 for him. Yet through Week 7, Kmet had only 12 receptions, none of which were in the end zone. Last week, he finally scored but caught only two balls. This week, he had five catches and two more TDs. The bottom line is Kmet appears to be regaining fantasy relevance. However, we need to see a bit more before getting too excited. He does play Detroit next week, though, so if you need a one-week streamer, he’s a great option.

Heat Index:  ??