In this piece, I present the updated year-to-date and past-month projections for expected fantasy points (FPx) and fantasy points overperformance (FPOP).
For more on these metrics, see last week’s FPx and FPOP introduction.
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2022 & Four-Week Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP
In the following tables (organized by position) I present games played and fantasy points scored, FPx and FPOP (all on a per-game basis) for the entire 2022 season (year to date) and for the past month (Weeks 8-11).
Included in the tables is every player with more than zero fantasy points scored over the past month (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. I have not removed injured players because there are only so many hours in a day.
Following each table are a few notes.
2022 & Weeks 8-11 Quarterback Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP
Quarterback FPx & FPOP Notes
Justin Fields: Over the past month, Fields is No. 1 with 33.2 fantasy points per game and an +11.62 FPOP. Fields (shoulder, hamstring) is uncertain for Week 12, but as long as he's on the field and able to run he's a high-end fantasy option.
Patrick Mahomes: Since Week 8, Mahomes is No. 1 at the position with 24.7 FPx. He has an elite combination of passing and scrambling ability.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is No. 4 with 20.1 FPx over the past month, but he's also dead last among all starters with a -4.94 FPOP. He's a massively undesirable option in Week 12 against the Patriots.
2022 & Weeks 8-11 Running Back Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP
Running Back FPx & FPOP Notes
Tony Pollard: Easily No. 1 at the position with a +13.90 FPOP, Pollard is No. 10 with 15.2 FPx. On the one hand, he's getting enough usage to be a reliable fantasy RB1. On the other hand, he's still being underused.
Christian McCaffrey: In his three games as a full-time player with the 49ers, McCaffrey has been No. 1 at the position with 20.8 FPx. Even without a large rushing role (13 carries per game), he has the elite receiving workload (7.3 targets) to put up points.
Saquon Barkley: Among all lead backs, Barkley is No. 3 with 17.7 FPx over the past month ... but he's dead last with a -4.10 FPOP. He's a strong bounceback/trade candidate.
2022 & Weeks 8-11 Wide Receiver Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP
Wide Receiver FPx & FPOP Notes
Davante Adams: No. 1 in FPx for the past month (17.7) and for the season (17.0), Adams hasn't missed QB Aaron Rodgers nearly as much as Rodgers has missed him.
Nico Collins: It's just two games -- but Collins is No. 16 over the past month with 11.8 FPx. Collins -- and not Brandin Cooks -- looks like the No. 1 wide receiver for the Texans ... for whatever that's worth.
Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle: Among all wide receivers with multiple games, Hill and Waddle are tied for No. 1 with a +6.45 FPOP since Week 8. They're both No. 1 wide receivers.
2022 & Weeks 8-11 Tight End Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP
Tight End FPx & FPOP Notes
Travis Kelce: No. 1 in FPx for the past month (16.9) and for the season (15.5), Kelce is essentially a wide receiver at the tight end position.
Juwan Johnson: At some point, Johnson will stop scoring touchdowns -- but he has five in his past five games. Over the past month, Johnson is No. 5 at the position with a +3.50 FPOP. He should regress eventually, but his 6.2 FPx since Week 8 makes him streamable.
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