In fantasy football, opportunity is everything — but what is any given opportunity worth?

If a quarterback passes 50 times in a game, if a running back gets 20 carries, if a wide receiver earns 10 targets, how many fantasy points should we generally expect from those players?

In an endeavor to answer that question, I’ve generated an expected fantasy points metric (FPx).

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Introducing Expected Fantasy Points (FPx)

In general, pass attempts and targets increase in value the closer the line of scrimmage is to the opponent’s goal line and the farther the ball travels past the line of scrimmage.

So for pass attempts and targets, value is driven primarily by field position and air yards.

For rush attempts, what matters most is proximity to the end zone and the number of defenders near the line of scrimmage: A carry at the opponent’s one-yard line against a light box is worth a lot more than a carry at your own one-yard line against a stacked box.

It’s worth noting that the value of any given opportunity is dependent upon the position of the guy who gets the opportunity.

Even if the line of scrimmage is identical, there’s a difference between a quarterback attempting a 25-yard pass from the pocket and a wide receiver attempting a 25-yard pass on an end-around. There’s a difference between a wide receiver getting a five-yard slant and a running back getting a five-yard dumpoff. There’s a difference between a running back getting a carry up the gut and a tight end getting a “carry” on a lateral pass. These are details, but they matter.

And these factors also impact the value of any given opportunity:

• Defensive strength of opponent
• Down and distance
• Point differential
• Game clock

Not all of these factors are accounted for in this initial FPx iteration, but I’m aware that I should at least have them in mind as I make updates. This is very much a metric still in formation.

Introducing Fantasy Point Overperformance (FPOP)

If we know how many fantasy points a player has scored and was expected to score, then we can easily substract one from the other to see the extent of his outperformance.

Hence, I am introducing Fantasy Points Overperformance (FPOP), a simple plus/minus metric that compares points scored with points expected.

Example: If a guy has 100 FPx and 110 fantasy points, then he has a +10 FPOP. If he has 100 FPx and 90 fantasy points, then he has a -10 FPOP.

How you interpret FPOP is up to you. I tend to think of it as a signal of talent … but also maybe luck. A lot of good players tend to be efficient with their opportunities, so they have good FPOPs, and that makes sense. But sometimes other players — average players — will have good FPOPs, and in those instances I view FPOP as a sign of likely future regression.

Presenting 2022 & Past Month Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP

In the following tables, organized by position, I present fantasy points scored, FPx, FPOP and FPOP per game for the entire 2022 season (year to date) and for the past month (Weeks 7-10).

Included in the tables is every player with more than zero fantasy points scored over the past month (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. I have not removed injured players because there are only so many hours in a day.

Following each table are a few notes.

2022 & Weeks 7-10 Quarterback Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP

Quarterback FPx & FPOP Notes

Justin Fields: In each of his past four games, Fields has been a top-five fantasy quarterback. He's developing into a legit Lamar Jackson-like star.

Tua Tagovailoa: For the year, Tagovailoa is the No. 1 quarterback with a +4.79 FPOP per game. That's not a fluke: He's No. 1 with 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt, an 82.6 QBR (per ESPN) and a 0.227 composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (per RBs Don't Matter).

Justin Herbert: Can someone please get this man some healthy NFL-caliber wide receivers?

2022 & Weeks 7-10 Running Back Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP

Running Back FPx & FPOP Notes

Tony Pollard: Over the past month (3 games), Pollard has almost as many actual fantasy points (65.4) as Ezekiel Elliott has FPx (73.3) for the entire season (7 games).

Joe Mixon: He's not having an efficient season (-12.9 FPOP), but Mixon has had a massive workload (165.6 FPx).

Nick Chubb: Imagine if Chubb (position-high 51.4 FPOP) had a better quarterback. In a couple of week, he will.

2022 & Weeks 7-10 Wide Receiver Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP

Wide Receiver FPx & FPOP Notes

Christian Watson: One great game (4-107-3 receiving in Week 10) does not a No. 1 receiver make, but Watson has the elite size/speed combination to turn opportunities into excess fantasy points (19.4 FPOP since Week 7).

Diontae Johnson: This year, Johnson has been horribly inefficient at turning targets and receptions into yards and touchdowns (-29.5 FPOP). I want to think that Johnson is destined for positive regression ... but maybe he's not good?

Jaylen Waddle: Entering the season, I could not have been more wrong about Waddle (position-high 38.4 FPOP). He's a superstar.

2022 & Weeks 7-10 Tight Ends Expected Fantasy Points & FPOP

Tight End FPx & FPOP Notes

Cole Kmet: It looks like my 2020 enthusiasm for Kmet is starting to pay off (position-high 5.52 FPOP per game since Week 7) -- and all that needed to happen was for the Bears to part ways with WR Allen Robinson and QB Justin Fields become a star.

Kyle Pitts: Ugh. Pitts is dead last -- emphasis on "dead" -- with a -22.7 FPOP for the year. He's probably someone to try to acquire on the cheap -- but his 2022 campaign could not have been any more underwhelming to date.

Travis Kelce: Unsurprisingly, Kelce is No. 1 at the position 137.2 FPx for the season -- and at No. 2 is Zach Ertz (101.7). The gap between Kelce and every other tight end has been massive this year.

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