Ryan Newman | Thu, Oct 27th 2022, 12:19pm EDT

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 8 (2022 Fantasy Football)

A week after missing the top three wide receivers in the league due to bye weeks, you should have plenty more options this time. If new to the piece, we use two robust models packed with objective evidence to determine which wide receivers have an edge given their matchup vs. opposing defensive backs. Given how chaotic this NFL season has been, hopefully, you can find something to be sure of with our projections.

Check out all of our Week 8 fantasy football content

Week 7 Results

Very strong week for our selections in Week 7. As we had thought, our plays are getting stronger weekly now that we have the data to include some more “macro”/schematic factors.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Darnell Mooney	START	10.2	8.3	-1.9 (L)
Zay Jones	START	10.3	10.8	+.5 (W)
George Pickens	START	9.2	18.1	+8.9 (W)
Jakobi Meyers	SIT	12.7	11.4	-1.3 (W)
Drake London	SIT	11.2	1.9	-9.3 (W)

Season Scorecard

Season Record: 32-17
Total Net Points: 76.7

Check out all of our Week 8 fantasy football content

Week 7 Results

Very strong week for our selections in Week 7. As we had thought, our plays are getting stronger weekly now that we have the data to include some more “macro”/schematic factors.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Darnell Mooney	START	10.2	8.3	-1.9 (L)
Zay Jones	START	10.3	10.8	+.5 (W)
George Pickens	START	9.2	18.1	+8.9 (W)
Jakobi Meyers	SIT	12.7	11.4	-1.3 (W)
Drake London	SIT	11.2	1.9	-9.3 (W)

Season Scorecard

Season Record: 32-17
Total Net Points: 76.7

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 8 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers				Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Drake London	53.2	19.2	0.00	4.80	11.7	4	26	5	5	10
Cooper Kupp	39.5	21.4	0.00	2.84	21.1	1	26	27	1	14
Chris Godwin	40.1	15.4	0.02	2.44	18.2	13	17	29	2	15
Chris Olave	53.1	18.4	0.05	2.31	6.5	6	11	33	23	18
Garrett Wilson	41.7	13.5	0.18	2.09	8.4	24	3	38	12	19
A.J. Brown	42.7	15.9	0.09	0.99	10.5	12	8	53	6	20
Tee Higgins	40.4	14.2	0.00	3.51	7.7	19	26	16	19	20
Justin Jefferson	39.9	16.1	0.05	1.12	10.1	10	13	51	8	21
Amon-Ra St. Brown	38.3	16.5	0.00	0.99	14.5	9	26	54	4	23
D.K. Metcalf	39.4	12.7	0.06	3.63	3.3	33	9	14	38	24
Cody Hollister	40.4	12.1	0.00	4.63	6.4	40	26	6	24	24
Josh Reynolds	39.1	12.7	0.00	3.06	7.0	32	22	24	21	25
Stefon Diggs	41.6	18.6	0.00	0.20	10.0	5	24	63	9	25
Jerry Jeudy	40.5	12.2	0.00	3.21	7.8	38	26	21	17	26
Michael Pittman Jr.	41.5	12.1	0.00	3.56	6.9	42	26	15	22	26
Allen Robinson II	40.0	12.6	0.00	3.80	3.0	34	26	12	42	29
Tyreek Hill	39.4	20.0	0.00	-2.24	15.6	3	26	84	3	29
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Julio Jones	40.4	11.3	0.10	3.44	3.3	53	7	17	40	29
Corey Davis	38.4	11.5	0.00	4.57	4.1	49	26	7	35	29
Wan’Dale Robinson	40.0	16.7	0.05	-5.43	8.1	8	10	90	14	31
Jaylen Waddle	39.6	17.0	0.00	-2.19	10.4	7	26	83	7	31
Tyler Lockett	39.1	13.0	0.04	-0.70	8.6	29	15	70	11	31
Mike Evans	40.4	14.2	-0.06	5.66	5.4	20	79	1	31	33
DeVonta Smith	42.7	13.9	0.00	-0.57	7.9	22	26	68	16	33
Adam Thielen	40.1	11.8	0.00	1.73	7.7	45	26	43	18	33
Tre’Quan Smith	40.5	13.3	-0.02	4.45	5.8	26	73	8	27	34
Curtis Samuel	39.0	11.2	0.01	1.31	8.3	55	19	47	13	34
Ja’Marr Chase	40.2	15.2	0.00	-0.75	5.9	14	26	71	26	34
CeeDee Lamb	41.7	15.1	-0.01	2.24	5.7	15	64	35	28	36
Noah Brown	42.1	12.5	0.00	2.34	1.6	36	26	30	51	36
Devin Duvernay	41.1	12.9	0.00	-1.21	8.1	30	25	77	15	37
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Alec Pierce	42.7	11.7	0.00	1.93	3.8	47	26	40	36	37
Olamide Zaccheaus	40.6	16.1	0.00	-3.38	5.6	11	26	86	29	38
DeAndre Hopkins	41.9	20.2	0.04	-0.41	-3.3	2	14	66	75	39
Davante Adams	39.8	14.4	-0.12	1.36	9.2	17	86	46	10	40
Courtland Sutton	40.5	10.9	0.00	4.26	-1.5	58	26	10	68	41
Allen Lazard	37.8	12.4	-0.06	5.44	2.5	37	82	2	44	41
Romeo Doubs	50.2	12.5	0.00	2.23	-2.0	35	26	36	71	42
Amari Cooper	40.9	12.7	0.00	1.40	5.6	31	63	45	30	42
Jakobi Meyers	39.7	14.3	-0.06	2.34	3.2	18	81	31	41	43
Quez Watkins	42.1	9.3	0.12	1.26	1.2	74	6	48	54	46
Trent Sherfield	40.2	10.6	0.00	0.58	3.7	61	26	59	37	46
Brandon Aiyuk	39.1	13.9	-0.02	0.33	5.3	21	69	61	33	46
Phillip Dorsett	38.4	11.9	0.20	-1.00	-1.8	43	1	72	70	47
Sammy Watkins	36.9	10.5	0.01	0.73	1.7	62	18	57	50	47
Jauan Jennings	39.0	13.3	-0.17	3.64	-0.6	25	88	13	62	47
Gabriel Davis	41.5	12.2	-0.05	3.32	1.0	39	77	18	55	47
Bryan Edwards	40.9	7.2	0.00	3.86	-1.2	87	26	11	66	48
Terrace Marshall Jr.	38.9	8.5	0.00	3.00	0.4	82	26	25	57	48
Equanimeous St. Brown	39.8	11.0	-0.06	4.83	1.7	57	80	4	49	48
Rashod Bateman	41.3	14.8	0.00	0.15	-6.5	16	26	64	85	48
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Tyler Boyd	40.4	11.5	-0.02	1.05	7.5	48	72	52	20	48
Terry McLaurin	40.4	9.4	0.01	1.77	-0.4	70	21	41	61	48
DeVante Parker	39.8	8.5	0.01	3.32	-3.0	81	20	19	74	49
Brandin Cooks	38.2	11.2	0.20	-1.00	-1.4	54	2	72	67	49
Nelson Agholor	39.6	11.4	0.05	0.99	-4.2	51	12	55	81	50
Kalif Raymond	38.8	11.3	0.00	-4.03	4.7	52	26	87	34	50
Dante Pettis	41.0	11.8	0.00	0.63	-2.6	44	26	58	73	50
Mack Hollins	39.7	9.3	-0.13	4.43	5.4	73	87	9	32	50
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	40.3	7.4	0.00	3.15	-1.7	85	26	23	69	51
K.J. Osborn	40.2	10.4	0.00	-0.60	2.0	64	26	69	47	52
D.J. Moore	38.6	10.7	0.02	-1.00	-0.2	60	16	72	59	52
Parris Campbell	41.5	9.1	0.00	0.79	1.8	77	26	56	48	52
Marquise Goodwin	39.2	10.5	0.14	-2.14	-0.2	63	4	82	60	52
Darius Slayton	40.5	11.1	0.00	-1.13	0.3	56	23	75	58	53
Deebo Samuel	36.7	13.1	0.00	0.27	-0.7	27	62	62	63	54
Robbie Anderson	41.9	9.4	0.00	2.29	-4.6	71	26	34	83	54
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.3	9.3	0.00	2.23	-4.0	72	26	37	80	54
Darnell Mooney	40.7	13.1	-0.01	-1.20	2.1	28	68	76	46	55
Elijah Moore	38.7	8.7	0.00	-0.53	2.2	80	26	67	45	55
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Rondale Moore	40.7	10.3	0.00	-4.70	3.3	66	26	88	39	55
Isaiah McKenzie	41.0	12.1	0.13	-5.31	-6.9	41	5	89	87	56
Jahan Dotson	53.4	13.6	-0.02	0.42	-1.1	23	74	60	65	56
Christian Kirk	39.1	11.4	-0.01	1.22	0.8	50	67	50	56	56
Marquez Callaway	40.7	9.2	-0.11	3.27	2.7	75	85	20	43	56
George Pickens	55.5	11.7	-0.05	2.88	-3.4	46	78	26	76	57
Robert Woods	39.8	10.8	-0.01	1.24	1.3	59	66	49	53	57
Zay Jones	39.4	9.9	-0.02	2.48	-1.1	67	70	28	64	57
Chase Claypool	40.0	8.0	-0.01	4.91	-4.3	84	65	3	82	59
Donovan Peoples-Jones	40.9	9.2	-0.05	2.33	1.5	76	76	32	52	59
Van Jefferson	40.2	8.7	0.00	1.75	-17.5	79	26	42	90	59
Hunter Renfrow	39.7	10.3	-0.07	-1.85	6.1	65	84	79	25	63
Chris Moore	38.1	9.5	-0.02	2.00	-3.8	69	71	39	78	64
K.J. Hamler	40.6	7.3	0.00	-2.03	-2.5	86	26	81	72	66
Michael Gallup	42.1	9.0	-0.04	1.45	-3.8	78	75	44	77	69
Marcus Johnson	40.9	6.4	0.00	-1.52	-6.6	88	26	78	86	70
Shi Smith	39.0	6.1	0.00	-2.00	-9.0	89	26	80	88	71
David Bell	32.4	5.3	-0.06	3.21	-14.2	90	83	22	89	71
Demarcus Robinson	40.9	9.6	-0.26	-0.13	-5.3	68	90	65	84	77
Diontae Johnson	40.1	8.4	-0.17	-2.24	-4.0	83	89	85	79	84

*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

*40 Adv: “40-Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR’s 40 time and DB’s)
*HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40-time for this data point to populate)

Bonus Chart

With seven weeks of data, it’s time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:

Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or fewer rushers)
Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 4 or fewer rushers)
Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 5 or more rushers)

Then we run a comparison of target share change among those four categories. This is a slight, purposeful change from last week, as target share indicates how a QB operates given these circumstances. In other words, we want to find “who he goes to when blitzed.” The target share will get us closer there.

Notes

The first six columns represent how that wide receiver performs.
The 7th-9th columns represent how much this week’s opponent runs Man (vs. Zone) and Blitz (vs. not) compared to the league average in percentage points.
The last three columns give an aggregate of how the wide receiver performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes expected.

	WR Target SHARE Changes						Opp Rates			Net Rates
Player	MAN	ZONE	Man BONUS	No blitz	BLITZ	Blitz BONUS	OPP	MAN Rate	Blitz Rate	manBONUS	blitzBONUS	TOT
Hunter Renfrow	30%	11%	189%	14%	10%	-36%	Saints	14%	-11%	26%	4%	30%
Michael Gallup	11%	9%	18%	13%	4%	-200%	Bears	1%	-12%	0%	24%	24%
Mack Hollins	30%	13%	131%	18%	13%	-38%	Saints	14%	-11%	18%	4%	23%
Garrett Wilson	35%	18%	89%	20%	40%	51%	Patriots	14%	-3%	12%	-1%	11%
Gabriel Davis	18%	13%	38%	12%	16%	24%	Packers	14%	17%	5%	4%	9%
Sterling Shepard	21%	19%	9%	20%	8%	-138%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%	0%	9%	9%
Ja’Marr Chase	38%	22%	76%	27%	44%	38%	Browns	8%	6%	6%	2%	9%
Diontae Johnson	47%	24%	90%	27%	37%	26%	Eagles	8%	3%	7%	1%	8%
Stefon Diggs	40%	28%	43%	33%	35%	6%	Packers	14%	17%	6%	1%	7%
Tyreek Hill	47%	32%	48%	36%	45%	21%	Lions	7%	14%	3%	3%	6%
Deebo Samuel	15%	25%	-38%	26%	33%	21%	Rams	-11%	8%	4%	2%	6%
Elijah Moore	18%	13%	35%	14%	10%	-39%	Patriots	14%	-3%	5%	1%	6%
Alec Pierce	20%	11%	84%	12%	16%	29%	Commanders	7%	-1%	6%	0%	6%
Michael Pittman Jr.	35%	21%	67%	25%	19%	-31%	Commanders	7%	-1%	5%	0%	5%
Jakobi Meyers	16%	24%	-36%	20%	15%	-34%	Jets	-2%	-12%	1%	4%	5%
A.J. Brown	50%	35%	43%	43%	29%	-49%	Steelers	4%	-5%	2%	2%	4%
Marquez Callaway	12%	10%	23%	11%	7%	-66%	Raiders	2%	-5%	1%	3%	4%
Rondale Moore	7%	9%	-17%	10%	9%	-18%	Vikings	-15%	-5%	3%	1%	4%
Noah Brown	24%	24%	2%	24%	19%	-29%	Bears	1%	-12%	0%	3%	3%
George Pickens	21%	16%	28%	16%	24%	34%	Eagles	8%	3%	2%	1%	3%
Curtis Samuel	22%	23%	-4%	27%	21%	-30%	Colts	1%	-11%	0%	3%	3%
Shi Smith	23%	13%	79%	23%	15%	-53%	Falcons	-2%	-9%	-2%	5%	3%
Tee Higgins	19%	19%	-2%	16%	31%	48%	Browns	8%	6%	0%	3%	3%
DJ Moore	69%	48%	43%	61%	43%	-43%	Falcons	-2%	-9%	-1%	4%	3%
David Sills V	9%	12%	-28%	11%	8%	-31%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%	0%	2%	2%
Donovan Peoples-Jones	26%	24%	8%	23%	15%	-53%	Bengals	8%	-3%	1%	2%	2%
Jaylen Waddle	24%	26%	-10%	24%	30%	21%	Lions	7%	14%	-1%	3%	2%
Devin Duvernay	17%	19%	-8%	16%	19%	18%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%	0%	2%	2%
Chris Godwin	7%	20%	-66%	16%	17%	9%	Ravens	-3%	-1%	2%	0%	2%
Christian Kirk	26%	27%	-2%	23%	36%	38%	Broncos	-3%	5%	0%	2%	2%
DK Metcalf	31%	28%	10%	29%	29%	2%	Giants	15%	15%	1%	0%	2%
Chris Moore	10%	9%	5%	11%	9%	-21%	Titans	-2%	-9%	0%	2%	2%
Jarvis Landry	6%	11%	-43%	11%	7%	-57%	Raiders	2%	-5%	-1%	3%	2%
Courtland Sutton	27%	29%	-7%	28%	42%	34%	Jaguars	0%	4%	0%	1%	1%
Jerry Jeudy	31%	19%	61%	23%	33%	31%	Jaguars	0%	4%	0%	1%	1%
Tre’Quan Smith	16%	8%	113%	8%	12%	32%	Raiders	2%	-5%	2%	-1%	1%
Richie James Jr.	15%	18%	-17%	18%	17%	-7%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%	0%	0%	1%
Zay Jones	28%	23%	24%	21%	27%	21%	Broncos	-3%	5%	-1%	1%	0%
Nelson Agholor	10%	14%	-25%	11%	11%	0%	Jets	-2%	-12%	0%	0%	0%
Mike Evans	20%	20%	1%	19%	13%	-45%	Ravens	-3%	-1%	0%	0%	0%
Drake London	48%	39%	21%	39%	50%	22%	Panthers	-4%	5%	-1%	1%	0%
Marvin Jones	15%	23%	-33%	18%	16%	-16%	Broncos	-3%	5%	1%	-1%	0%
Ashton Dulin	7%	7%	1%	7%	7%	7%	Commanders	7%	-1%	0%	0%	0%
Greg Dortch	9%	11%	-17%	8%	16%	48%	Vikings	-15%	-5%	3%	-3%	0%
Chris Olave	26%	26%	-1%	25%	27%	8%	Raiders	2%	-5%	0%	0%	0%
Corey Davis	13%	17%	-24%	16%	8%	-102%	Patriots	14%	-3%	-3%	3%	0%
Ben Skowronek	19%	17%	12%	16%	10%	-64%	49ers	-8%	-1%	-1%	0%	-1%
DeVonta Smith	27%	29%	-5%	30%	33%	10%	Steelers	4%	-5%	0%	0%	-1%
Tyler Boyd	24%	14%	68%	16%	8%	-96%	Browns	8%	6%	5%	-6%	-1%
Kalif Raymond	13%	12%	7%	13%	12%	-15%	Dolphins	5%	7%	0%	-1%	-1%
Trent Sherfield	9%	9%	-2%	9%	9%	-4%	Lions	7%	14%	0%	-1%	-1%
Darius Slayton	18%	13%	32%	12%	13%	5%	Seahawks	-2%	-7%	0%	0%	-1%
Randall Cobb	10%	13%	-21%	12%	16%	25%	Bills	-9%	-10%	2%	-3%	-1%
Amari Cooper	32%	33%	-2%	27%	39%	32%	Bengals	8%	-3%	0%	-1%	-1%
Adam Thielen	33%	25%	33%	21%	27%	24%	Cardinals	-9%	7%	-3%	2%	-1%
Marquise Brown	29%	29%	0%	23%	35%	35%	Vikings	-15%	-5%	0%	-2%	-2%
Cooper Kupp	44%	35%	24%	36%	36%	0%	49ers	-8%	-1%	-2%	0%	-2%
Robert Woods	30%	36%	-15%	26%	64%	60%	Texans	-8%	-5%	1%	-3%	-2%
Darnell Mooney	39%	56%	-30%	37%	47%	22%	Cowboys	8%	1%	-2%	0%	-2%
Nico Collins	26%	16%	65%	20%	21%	6%	Titans	-2%	-9%	-2%	-1%	-2%
K.J. Osborn	15%	14%	7%	14%	12%	-22%	Cardinals	-9%	7%	-1%	-2%	-2%
Brandin Cooks	40%	25%	62%	30%	33%	8%	Titans	-2%	-9%	-2%	-1%	-2%
Tyler Lockett	20%	34%	-41%	27%	35%	23%	Giants	15%	15%	-6%	3%	-3%
Davante Adams	39%	39%	1%	33%	47%	29%	Saints	14%	-11%	0%	-3%	-3%
Jahan Dotson	10%	8%	33%	8%	12%	31%	Colts	1%	-11%	0%	-3%	-3%
Justin Jefferson	40%	34%	16%	34%	27%	-23%	Cardinals	-9%	7%	-2%	-2%	-3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	28%	22%	23%	27%	17%	-59%	Dolphins	5%	7%	1%	-4%	-3%
DJ Chark	8%	13%	-41%	12%	10%	-20%	Dolphins	5%	7%	-2%	-1%	-3%
Josh Reynolds	20%	18%	8%	24%	15%	-55%	Dolphins	5%	7%	0%	-4%	-4%
DeVante Parker	19%	15%	27%	14%	19%	27%	Jets	-2%	-12%	0%	-3%	-4%
Chase Claypool	16%	21%	-22%	20%	12%	-66%	Eagles	8%	3%	-2%	-2%	-4%
Parris Campbell	7%	18%	-59%	16%	12%	-34%	Commanders	7%	-1%	-4%	0%	-4%
CeeDee Lamb	35%	39%	-9%	34%	52%	34%	Bears	1%	-12%	0%	-4%	-4%
Terry McLaurin	26%	16%	58%	16%	31%	48%	Colts	1%	-11%	1%	-5%	-5%
Olamide Zaccheaus	33%	21%	57%	25%	15%	-68%	Panthers	-4%	5%	-3%	-4%	-6%
A.J. Green	13%	8%	59%	9%	7%	-32%	Vikings	-15%	-5%	-9%	2%	-7%
Brandon Aiyuk	42%	25%	71%	24%	26%	7%	Rams	-11%	8%	-8%	1%	-7%
Russell Gage	34%	10%	223%	13%	26%	50%	Ravens	-3%	-1%	-7%	0%	-8%
Allen Robinson	22%	12%	90%	13%	19%	31%	49ers	-8%	-1%	-8%	0%	-8%
Romeo Doubs	26%	19%	36%	16%	37%	55%	Bills	-9%	-10%	-3%	-6%	-9%
Rashod Bateman	16%	22%	-29%	22%	10%	-128%	Buccaneers	-6%	10%	2%	-12%	-11%
Allen Lazard	34%	17%	107%	19%	24%	21%	Bills	-9%	-10%	-9%	-2%	-11%
Isaiah McKenzie	8%	11%	-32%	16%	10%	-68%	Packers	14%	17%	-5%	-11%	-16%
Jauan Jennings	31%	11%	177%	13%	11%	-15%	Rams	-11%	8%	-20%	-1%	-21%

*Thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during the first three quarters, first three downs, middle 80 yards of the field, and game scripts within +/-16 points.

WR Matchups to Target in Week 7

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

Wilson comes in with our base model’s fifth-best matchup this week. Strong in every category, he especially has a speed advantage, buoyed most by shadow Myles Bryant (56% expected snaps). Wilson’s 4.38 40 should be more than Bryant and his 4.62 40 can handle. In addition, as you can see on the bonus chart, Wilson sees almost twice the target share vs. man coverage (35% vs. 18%). Given that the Patriots run man coverage 14 percentage points more than the league average, Wilson should be in for a big day.

Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF)

Davis has a strong outlook this week for a few reasons. For starters, from a scheme standpoint, he goes from a 13% to 18% target share vs. man coverage and a 12% to 16% target share vs. a blitz. Both are good signs, as the Packers run both at a very high rate (see bonus chart). Take that along with a serious height advantage, with Davis’ 75 inches dwarfing both likely matchups: Jaire Alexander (70) and Eric Stokes (72).

Drake London (WR – ATL)

London has a matchup we simply cannot ignore this week. He has top-five advantages in three of four markers on our base model, mainly due to his matchup with Donte Jackson this week (50% expected pass snaps). Jackson has an abysmal 50.4 PFF grade coming into the week versus London’s strong 81.3.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

We’ve mentioned Bateman a few times (on both sides) in this piece this season and have a good read on him. This week he draws Jamel Dean for an estimated 62% of his pass snaps. Dean and his 81.4 PFF grade are strong on their own, but he also brings with him a league-leading .36 fantasy points per target. Add the fact that Bateman’s target share halves (22 to 10%) when an opponent blitzes, and he’s facing the Bucs that bring the blitz 10% points more than the league average, we are fading Bateman hard.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Schematically, McLaurin “prefers” man coverage and blitzing. And anyone that follows the Colts knows that’s not what they do (see bonus chart for proof). Then on a micro level, McLaurin expects to face Isaiah Rodgers the most this week and has a 6-point PFF grade disadvantage compared to Rodgers.

We hope to ride the momentum and bring back another winner for you all in Week 8. Good Luck.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 8 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Week 7 Results

Season Scorecard

Week 7 Results

Season Scorecard

Week 8 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

Legend

Bonus Chart

Notes

WR Matchups to Target in Week 7

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7

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