A week after missing the top three wide receivers in the league due to bye weeks, you should have plenty more options this time. If new to the piece, we use two robust models packed with objective evidence to determine which wide receivers have an edge given their matchup vs. opposing defensive backs. Given how chaotic this NFL season has been, hopefully, you can find something to be sure of with our projections.
Check out all of our Week 8 fantasy football content 
Week 7 Results
Very strong week for our selections in Week 7. As we had thought, our plays are getting stronger weekly now that we have the data to include some more “macro”/schematic factors.
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 32-17
Total Net Points: 76.7
A week after missing the top three wide receivers in the league due to bye weeks, you should have plenty more options this time. If new to the piece, we use two robust models packed with objective evidence to determine which wide receivers have an edge given their matchup vs. opposing defensive backs. Given how chaotic this NFL season has been, hopefully, you can find something to be sure of with our projections.
Check out all of our Week 8 fantasy football content
Week 7 Results
Very strong week for our selections in Week 7. As we had thought, our plays are getting stronger weekly now that we have the data to include some more “macro”/schematic factors.
Season Scorecard
Season Record: 32-17
Total Net Points: 76.7
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 8 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40-Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR’s 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40-time for this data point to populate)
Bonus Chart
With seven weeks of data, it’s time to start looking at coverage situations. Given how elastic certain DCs are with their schemes, not to mention the lack of predictability when it comes to DB performance, we find it best to “batch” coverages by:
- Man (M) no blitz (Cover 0, 1 with 4 or fewer rushers)
- Man BLITZ (Cover 0, 1 with 5 or more rushers)
- Zone (Z) no blitz (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 4 or fewer rushers)
- Zone BLITZ (Cover 2, 3, 4, or 6 with 5 or more rushers)
Then we run a comparison of target share change among those four categories. This is a slight, purposeful change from last week, as target share indicates how a QB operates given these circumstances. In other words, we want to find “who he goes to when blitzed.” The target share will get us closer there.
Notes
- The first six columns represent how that wide receiver performs.
- The 7th-9th columns represent how much this week’s opponent runs Man (vs. Zone) and Blitz (vs. not) compared to the league average in percentage points.
- The last three columns give an aggregate of how the wide receiver performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes expected.
|
WR Target SHARE Changes |
Opp Rates |
Net Rates |
| Player |
MAN |
ZONE |
Man BONUS |
No blitz |
BLITZ |
Blitz BONUS |
OPP |
MAN Rate |
Blitz Rate |
manBONUS |
blitzBONUS |
TOT |
| Hunter Renfrow |
30% |
11% |
189% |
14% |
10% |
-36% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
26% |
4% |
30% |
| Michael Gallup |
11% |
9% |
18% |
13% |
4% |
-200% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
0% |
24% |
24% |
| Mack Hollins |
30% |
13% |
131% |
18% |
13% |
-38% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
18% |
4% |
23% |
| Garrett Wilson |
35% |
18% |
89% |
20% |
40% |
51% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
12% |
-1% |
11% |
| Gabriel Davis |
18% |
13% |
38% |
12% |
16% |
24% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
5% |
4% |
9% |
| Sterling Shepard |
21% |
19% |
9% |
20% |
8% |
-138% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
0% |
9% |
9% |
| Ja’Marr Chase |
38% |
22% |
76% |
27% |
44% |
38% |
Browns |
8% |
6% |
6% |
2% |
9% |
| Diontae Johnson |
47% |
24% |
90% |
27% |
37% |
26% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
7% |
1% |
8% |
| Stefon Diggs |
40% |
28% |
43% |
33% |
35% |
6% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
6% |
1% |
7% |
| Tyreek Hill |
47% |
32% |
48% |
36% |
45% |
21% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
3% |
3% |
6% |
| Deebo Samuel |
15% |
25% |
-38% |
26% |
33% |
21% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
4% |
2% |
6% |
| Elijah Moore |
18% |
13% |
35% |
14% |
10% |
-39% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
5% |
1% |
6% |
| Alec Pierce |
20% |
11% |
84% |
12% |
16% |
29% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
6% |
0% |
6% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. |
35% |
21% |
67% |
25% |
19% |
-31% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
5% |
0% |
5% |
| Jakobi Meyers |
16% |
24% |
-36% |
20% |
15% |
-34% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
1% |
4% |
5% |
| A.J. Brown |
50% |
35% |
43% |
43% |
29% |
-49% |
Steelers |
4% |
-5% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
| Marquez Callaway |
12% |
10% |
23% |
11% |
7% |
-66% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
1% |
3% |
4% |
| Rondale Moore |
7% |
9% |
-17% |
10% |
9% |
-18% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
3% |
1% |
4% |
| Noah Brown |
24% |
24% |
2% |
24% |
19% |
-29% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
| George Pickens |
21% |
16% |
28% |
16% |
24% |
34% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
3% |
| Curtis Samuel |
22% |
23% |
-4% |
27% |
21% |
-30% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
| Shi Smith |
23% |
13% |
79% |
23% |
15% |
-53% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
-2% |
5% |
3% |
| Tee Higgins |
19% |
19% |
-2% |
16% |
31% |
48% |
Browns |
8% |
6% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
| DJ Moore |
69% |
48% |
43% |
61% |
43% |
-43% |
Falcons |
-2% |
-9% |
-1% |
4% |
3% |
| David Sills V |
9% |
12% |
-28% |
11% |
8% |
-31% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones |
26% |
24% |
8% |
23% |
15% |
-53% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
| Jaylen Waddle |
24% |
26% |
-10% |
24% |
30% |
21% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
-1% |
3% |
2% |
| Devin Duvernay |
17% |
19% |
-8% |
16% |
19% |
18% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
| Chris Godwin |
7% |
20% |
-66% |
16% |
17% |
9% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
2% |
0% |
2% |
| Christian Kirk |
26% |
27% |
-2% |
23% |
36% |
38% |
Broncos |
-3% |
5% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
| DK Metcalf |
31% |
28% |
10% |
29% |
29% |
2% |
Giants |
15% |
15% |
1% |
0% |
2% |
| Chris Moore |
10% |
9% |
5% |
11% |
9% |
-21% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
0% |
2% |
2% |
| Jarvis Landry |
6% |
11% |
-43% |
11% |
7% |
-57% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
-1% |
3% |
2% |
| Courtland Sutton |
27% |
29% |
-7% |
28% |
42% |
34% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| Jerry Jeudy |
31% |
19% |
61% |
23% |
33% |
31% |
Jaguars |
0% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
| Tre’Quan Smith |
16% |
8% |
113% |
8% |
12% |
32% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
2% |
-1% |
1% |
| Richie James Jr. |
15% |
18% |
-17% |
18% |
17% |
-7% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
| Zay Jones |
28% |
23% |
24% |
21% |
27% |
21% |
Broncos |
-3% |
5% |
-1% |
1% |
0% |
| Nelson Agholor |
10% |
14% |
-25% |
11% |
11% |
0% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Mike Evans |
20% |
20% |
1% |
19% |
13% |
-45% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Drake London |
48% |
39% |
21% |
39% |
50% |
22% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
-1% |
1% |
0% |
| Marvin Jones |
15% |
23% |
-33% |
18% |
16% |
-16% |
Broncos |
-3% |
5% |
1% |
-1% |
0% |
| Ashton Dulin |
7% |
7% |
1% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Greg Dortch |
9% |
11% |
-17% |
8% |
16% |
48% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
3% |
-3% |
0% |
| Chris Olave |
26% |
26% |
-1% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
Raiders |
2% |
-5% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Corey Davis |
13% |
17% |
-24% |
16% |
8% |
-102% |
Patriots |
14% |
-3% |
-3% |
3% |
0% |
| Ben Skowronek |
19% |
17% |
12% |
16% |
10% |
-64% |
49ers |
-8% |
-1% |
-1% |
0% |
-1% |
| DeVonta Smith |
27% |
29% |
-5% |
30% |
33% |
10% |
Steelers |
4% |
-5% |
0% |
0% |
-1% |
| Tyler Boyd |
24% |
14% |
68% |
16% |
8% |
-96% |
Browns |
8% |
6% |
5% |
-6% |
-1% |
| Kalif Raymond |
13% |
12% |
7% |
13% |
12% |
-15% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
| Trent Sherfield |
9% |
9% |
-2% |
9% |
9% |
-4% |
Lions |
7% |
14% |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
| Darius Slayton |
18% |
13% |
32% |
12% |
13% |
5% |
Seahawks |
-2% |
-7% |
0% |
0% |
-1% |
| Randall Cobb |
10% |
13% |
-21% |
12% |
16% |
25% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
2% |
-3% |
-1% |
| Amari Cooper |
32% |
33% |
-2% |
27% |
39% |
32% |
Bengals |
8% |
-3% |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
| Adam Thielen |
33% |
25% |
33% |
21% |
27% |
24% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
-3% |
2% |
-1% |
| Marquise Brown |
29% |
29% |
0% |
23% |
35% |
35% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
0% |
-2% |
-2% |
| Cooper Kupp |
44% |
35% |
24% |
36% |
36% |
0% |
49ers |
-8% |
-1% |
-2% |
0% |
-2% |
| Robert Woods |
30% |
36% |
-15% |
26% |
64% |
60% |
Texans |
-8% |
-5% |
1% |
-3% |
-2% |
| Darnell Mooney |
39% |
56% |
-30% |
37% |
47% |
22% |
Cowboys |
8% |
1% |
-2% |
0% |
-2% |
| Nico Collins |
26% |
16% |
65% |
20% |
21% |
6% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
-2% |
-1% |
-2% |
| K.J. Osborn |
15% |
14% |
7% |
14% |
12% |
-22% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
-1% |
-2% |
-2% |
| Brandin Cooks |
40% |
25% |
62% |
30% |
33% |
8% |
Titans |
-2% |
-9% |
-2% |
-1% |
-2% |
| Tyler Lockett |
20% |
34% |
-41% |
27% |
35% |
23% |
Giants |
15% |
15% |
-6% |
3% |
-3% |
| Davante Adams |
39% |
39% |
1% |
33% |
47% |
29% |
Saints |
14% |
-11% |
0% |
-3% |
-3% |
| Jahan Dotson |
10% |
8% |
33% |
8% |
12% |
31% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
0% |
-3% |
-3% |
| Justin Jefferson |
40% |
34% |
16% |
34% |
27% |
-23% |
Cardinals |
-9% |
7% |
-2% |
-2% |
-3% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown |
28% |
22% |
23% |
27% |
17% |
-59% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
1% |
-4% |
-3% |
| DJ Chark |
8% |
13% |
-41% |
12% |
10% |
-20% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
-2% |
-1% |
-3% |
| Josh Reynolds |
20% |
18% |
8% |
24% |
15% |
-55% |
Dolphins |
5% |
7% |
0% |
-4% |
-4% |
| DeVante Parker |
19% |
15% |
27% |
14% |
19% |
27% |
Jets |
-2% |
-12% |
0% |
-3% |
-4% |
| Chase Claypool |
16% |
21% |
-22% |
20% |
12% |
-66% |
Eagles |
8% |
3% |
-2% |
-2% |
-4% |
| Parris Campbell |
7% |
18% |
-59% |
16% |
12% |
-34% |
Commanders |
7% |
-1% |
-4% |
0% |
-4% |
| CeeDee Lamb |
35% |
39% |
-9% |
34% |
52% |
34% |
Bears |
1% |
-12% |
0% |
-4% |
-4% |
| Terry McLaurin |
26% |
16% |
58% |
16% |
31% |
48% |
Colts |
1% |
-11% |
1% |
-5% |
-5% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus |
33% |
21% |
57% |
25% |
15% |
-68% |
Panthers |
-4% |
5% |
-3% |
-4% |
-6% |
| A.J. Green |
13% |
8% |
59% |
9% |
7% |
-32% |
Vikings |
-15% |
-5% |
-9% |
2% |
-7% |
| Brandon Aiyuk |
42% |
25% |
71% |
24% |
26% |
7% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
-8% |
1% |
-7% |
| Russell Gage |
34% |
10% |
223% |
13% |
26% |
50% |
Ravens |
-3% |
-1% |
-7% |
0% |
-8% |
| Allen Robinson |
22% |
12% |
90% |
13% |
19% |
31% |
49ers |
-8% |
-1% |
-8% |
0% |
-8% |
| Romeo Doubs |
26% |
19% |
36% |
16% |
37% |
55% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
-3% |
-6% |
-9% |
| Rashod Bateman |
16% |
22% |
-29% |
22% |
10% |
-128% |
Buccaneers |
-6% |
10% |
2% |
-12% |
-11% |
| Allen Lazard |
34% |
17% |
107% |
19% |
24% |
21% |
Bills |
-9% |
-10% |
-9% |
-2% |
-11% |
| Isaiah McKenzie |
8% |
11% |
-32% |
16% |
10% |
-68% |
Packers |
14% |
17% |
-5% |
-11% |
-16% |
| Jauan Jennings |
31% |
11% |
177% |
13% |
11% |
-15% |
Rams |
-11% |
8% |
-20% |
-1% |
-21% |
*Thanks to SIS and their datahub for the stats
**All data was taken ONLY during the first three quarters, first three downs, middle 80 yards of the field, and game scripts within +/-16 points.
WR Matchups to Target in Week 7
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Wilson comes in with our base model’s fifth-best matchup this week. Strong in every category, he especially has a speed advantage, buoyed most by shadow Myles Bryant (56% expected snaps). Wilson’s 4.38 40 should be more than Bryant and his 4.62 40 can handle. In addition, as you can see on the bonus chart, Wilson sees almost twice the target share vs. man coverage (35% vs. 18%). Given that the Patriots run man coverage 14 percentage points more than the league average, Wilson should be in for a big day.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF)
Davis has a strong outlook this week for a few reasons. For starters, from a scheme standpoint, he goes from a 13% to 18% target share vs. man coverage and a 12% to 16% target share vs. a blitz. Both are good signs, as the Packers run both at a very high rate (see bonus chart). Take that along with a serious height advantage, with Davis’ 75 inches dwarfing both likely matchups: Jaire Alexander (70) and Eric Stokes (72).
Drake London (WR – ATL)
London has a matchup we simply cannot ignore this week. He has top-five advantages in three of four markers on our base model, mainly due to his matchup with Donte Jackson this week (50% expected pass snaps). Jackson has an abysmal 50.4 PFF grade coming into the week versus London’s strong 81.3.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 7
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
We’ve mentioned Bateman a few times (on both sides) in this piece this season and have a good read on him. This week he draws Jamel Dean for an estimated 62% of his pass snaps. Dean and his 81.4 PFF grade are strong on their own, but he also brings with him a league-leading .36 fantasy points per target. Add the fact that Bateman’s target share halves (22 to 10%) when an opponent blitzes, and he’s facing the Bucs that bring the blitz 10% points more than the league average, we are fading Bateman hard.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
Schematically, McLaurin “prefers” man coverage and blitzing. And anyone that follows the Colts knows that’s not what they do (see bonus chart for proof). Then on a micro level, McLaurin expects to face Isaiah Rodgers the most this week and has a 6-point PFF grade disadvantage compared to Rodgers.
We hope to ride the momentum and bring back another winner for you all in Week 8. Good Luck.
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