We will get to the matchups in a minute, but if you have been wondering to yourself, “wow, the league sure seems like it’s full of parity this season,” you are not alone. According to Football Outsiders:
“The standard deviation of total DVOA after Week 5 is 17.4%. That is the lowest standard deviation for the league after Week 5 in 42 years of DVOA! For those curious, the year with the highest standard deviation after Week 5 was 2009.”
By just about every measure, this is an odd/overly-balanced season for the NFL. Heck, 20 teams are currently between 3-2 and 2-3. Yet, within that backdrop, we need to filter out the noise and determine which WRs have the best matchups THIS WEEK. But before we do, let’s see how we did in Week 5.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice
We will get to the matchups in a minute, but if you have been wondering to yourself, “wow, the league sure seems like it’s full of parity this season,” you are not alone. According to Football Outsiders:
“The standard deviation of total DVOA after Week 5 is 17.4%. That is the lowest standard deviation for the league after Week 5 in 42 years of DVOA! For those curious, the year with the highest standard deviation after Week 5 was 2009.”
By just about every measure, this is an odd/overly-balanced season for the NFL. Heck, 20 teams are currently between 3-2 and 2-3. Yet, within that backdrop, we need to filter out the noise and determine which WRs have the best matchups THIS WEEK. But before we do, let’s see how we did in Week 5.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice
Week 5 Results:
We had another “winning” week by W/L record, but once again, I don’t feel good about the magnitude of our picks (we lost if you consider total net points). The good news is, in theory, this model should get better and better with every passing week!
*Excluding Injured
Season Scored Card
- Season Record: 24-15
- Total Net Points: 55.2
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 6 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Wt.ed Net PPRR Example:
Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DBs)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
BONUS CHART:
In lieu of the previous week’s charts, where we highlighted ONLY Rookie CBs who have been heavily targeted, we decided to go a little overboard this time around. Below you can find essentially an inverse pivot of our main chart, including some new data points. This is a chart of each WR and the DB we expect them to face the most this week, along with that respective DB’s critical coverage data.
Note that after each stat, we have a ranking (all rankings formatted that 1=DB GOOD at that stat/not good for WR). Then the final column is simply an average of those rankings weighted to the percentage of snaps the WR will see vs. his main cover man.
WR |
PRIMARY DB |
Est. % of Snaps |
Catch % |
Rk |
Forced Inc. % |
Rk |
PFF Cov. Grade |
Rk |
QBR vs. |
Rk |
Target Rate |
Rk |
Avg Rk x Est Snap % |
Richie James |
Damarion Williams |
85% |
76.2 |
65 |
4.8 |
59 |
41 |
75 |
132.2 |
73 |
23% |
77 |
59 |
Curtis Samuel |
Kyler Gordon |
73% |
80.6 |
70 |
2.8 |
70 |
43.5 |
71 |
131.1 |
72 |
21% |
73 |
52 |
Rondale Moore |
Coby Bryant |
75% |
68.8 |
53 |
0 |
73 |
45.2 |
68 |
148.2 |
77 |
16% |
50 |
48 |
Christian Kirk |
Kenny Moore |
78% |
65.4 |
45 |
3.8 |
67 |
39.6 |
77 |
125.3 |
68 |
14% |
35 |
45 |
David Bell |
Myles Bryant |
73% |
69.6 |
55 |
4.3 |
63 |
47 |
67 |
100.3 |
51 |
19% |
70 |
44 |
Quez Watkins |
Jourdan Lewis |
75% |
84.2 |
76 |
0 |
76 |
50 |
62 |
103.9 |
58 |
12% |
16 |
43 |
Randall Cobb |
Michael Carter |
81% |
82.4 |
73 |
11.8 |
29 |
62.1 |
46 |
108.1 |
61 |
14% |
42 |
40 |
Kendall Hinton |
J.C. Jackson |
60% |
75 |
64 |
5 |
57 |
32.1 |
80 |
149 |
78 |
17% |
52 |
40 |
James Proche |
Darnay Holmes |
89% |
56.5 |
18 |
4.3 |
61 |
57.9 |
52 |
70.6 |
18 |
18% |
67 |
38 |
Isaiah McKenzie |
L’Jarius Sneed |
77% |
77.4 |
67 |
6.5 |
50 |
74.5 |
12 |
117 |
67 |
15% |
44 |
37 |
Chris Godwin |
Arthur Maulet |
72% |
71.4 |
59 |
7.1 |
47 |
51.4 |
61 |
111 |
63 |
13% |
27 |
37 |
Olamide Zaccheaus |
Deommodore Lenoir |
49% |
86.7 |
78 |
0 |
78 |
40.4 |
76 |
101.8 |
54 |
25% |
79 |
36 |
Tyler Boyd |
Bradley Roby |
88% |
46.4 |
8 |
7.1 |
46 |
53 |
59 |
61.3 |
11 |
18% |
62 |
33 |
D’Wayne Eskridge |
Byron Murphy |
69% |
60.6 |
32 |
6.1 |
53 |
64.8 |
39 |
94.8 |
47 |
17% |
59 |
32 |
Tee Higgins |
Paulson Adebo |
43% |
77.8 |
68 |
11.1 |
34 |
38.8 |
78 |
158.3 |
80 |
21% |
72 |
29 |
Keenan Allen |
K’Waun Williams |
63% |
81.3 |
71 |
6.3 |
51 |
60 |
48 |
95.3 |
48 |
10% |
9 |
28 |
Jakobi Meyers |
Greg Newsome |
66% |
60.9 |
34 |
4.3 |
62 |
67.6 |
32 |
98.5 |
50 |
14% |
33 |
28 |
A.J. Green |
Michael Jackson |
85% |
57.9 |
22 |
15.8 |
13 |
48.6 |
65 |
93.5 |
45 |
12% |
19 |
28 |
K.J. Osborn |
Kader Kohou |
54% |
75 |
63 |
8.3 |
44 |
67.6 |
31 |
100.7 |
52 |
17% |
56 |
27 |
Mecole Hardman |
Taron Johnson |
52% |
72.4 |
60 |
6.9 |
48 |
58.6 |
51 |
86.7 |
35 |
17% |
53 |
26 |
Jauan Jennings |
Dee Alford |
64% |
65 |
42 |
10 |
37 |
70.3 |
24 |
68.1 |
16 |
22% |
75 |
25 |
George Pickens |
Carlton Davis |
53% |
59.5 |
30 |
14.3 |
19 |
57.3 |
53 |
102.6 |
56 |
22% |
76 |
25 |
Shi Smith |
Grant Haley |
79% |
62.5 |
36 |
18.8 |
5 |
71.5 |
20 |
78.9 |
29 |
18% |
65 |
25 |
Drake London |
Samuel Womack |
52% |
70 |
56 |
0 |
75 |
77.6 |
9 |
75.8 |
25 |
20% |
71 |
24 |
Jaylen Waddle |
Chandon Sullivan |
38% |
85.7 |
77 |
0 |
77 |
48.5 |
66 |
129 |
71 |
13% |
25 |
24 |
Amari Cooper |
Jalen Mills |
41% |
66.7 |
47 |
4.8 |
58 |
32.6 |
79 |
95.3 |
49 |
18% |
61 |
24 |
Equanimeous St. Brown |
William Jackson III |
40% |
84.2 |
75 |
10.5 |
36 |
48.9 |
64 |
149.8 |
79 |
15% |
45 |
24 |
Tre’Quan Smith |
Mike Hilton |
56% |
65.4 |
44 |
3.8 |
66 |
68.4 |
29 |
77.9 |
28 |
15% |
49 |
24 |
Corey Davis |
Eric Stokes |
42% |
87.5 |
79 |
0 |
79 |
61.2 |
47 |
114.6 |
65 |
10% |
7 |
23 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster |
Dane Jackson |
63% |
65 |
43 |
5 |
56 |
64.9 |
38 |
59.8 |
10 |
14% |
37 |
23 |
Courtland Sutton |
Asante Samuel Jr. |
51% |
65.8 |
46 |
13.2 |
21 |
62.1 |
45 |
90.5 |
43 |
18% |
68 |
23 |
D.K. Metcalf |
Marco Wilson |
57% |
59.4 |
28 |
15.6 |
15 |
44.2 |
69 |
82.4 |
31 |
17% |
57 |
23 |
D.J. Moore |
Derion Kendrick |
40% |
63 |
38 |
11.1 |
32 |
41.9 |
74 |
105.8 |
60 |
27% |
80 |
23 |
DeVante Parker |
Denzel Ward |
42% |
64 |
40 |
8 |
45 |
43.2 |
72 |
100.9 |
53 |
15% |
48 |
22 |
Alec Pierce |
Shaquill Griffin |
57% |
68.4 |
52 |
15.8 |
14 |
68.8 |
26 |
128.4 |
70 |
13% |
28 |
22 |
Garrett Wilson |
Rasul Douglas |
61% |
76.5 |
66 |
11.8 |
28 |
72.8 |
16 |
85.7 |
34 |
13% |
24 |
21 |
Parris Campbell |
Darious Williams |
48% |
60 |
31 |
16 |
12 |
43.6 |
70 |
87.6 |
39 |
18% |
63 |
20 |
Mike Williams |
Damarri Mathis |
35% |
80 |
69 |
6.7 |
49 |
62.8 |
41 |
103.1 |
57 |
24% |
78 |
20 |
Gabriel Davis |
Rashad Fenton |
40% |
82.6 |
74 |
8.7 |
43 |
58.8 |
49 |
128.3 |
69 |
11% |
11 |
20 |
DeVonta Smith |
Anthony Brown |
42% |
58.3 |
23 |
4.2 |
65 |
66 |
35 |
87.5 |
36 |
21% |
74 |
20 |
Jerry Jeudy |
Bryce Callahan |
76% |
57.9 |
21 |
5.3 |
54 |
71.8 |
18 |
62.3 |
13 |
12% |
22 |
19 |
Chris Olave |
Eli Apple |
49% |
66.7 |
50 |
9.5 |
39 |
49.8 |
63 |
87.8 |
40 |
10% |
6 |
19 |
Tyreek Hill |
Cameron Dantzler |
44% |
74.2 |
62 |
12.9 |
24 |
76.2 |
11 |
110.7 |
62 |
17% |
58 |
19 |
Brandon Aiyuk |
A.J. Terrell |
41% |
67.7 |
51 |
16.1 |
10 |
54.9 |
58 |
132.7 |
74 |
14% |
43 |
19 |
Dante Pettis |
Kendall Fuller |
34% |
70.4 |
58 |
11.1 |
33 |
42.2 |
73 |
137.5 |
76 |
14% |
41 |
19 |
Demarcus Robinson |
Adoree’ Jackson |
39% |
59.1 |
27 |
4.5 |
60 |
55.9 |
55 |
104.2 |
59 |
13% |
26 |
18 |
Marvin Jones Jr. |
Brandon Facyson |
42% |
81.8 |
72 |
9.1 |
41 |
67.1 |
33 |
101.9 |
55 |
10% |
4 |
17 |
Noah Brown |
Josiah Scott |
33% |
70 |
57 |
10 |
38 |
55 |
57 |
132.9 |
75 |
13% |
30 |
17 |
Stefon Diggs |
Jaylen Watson |
40% |
54.5 |
16 |
6.1 |
52 |
56.4 |
54 |
76.3 |
26 |
18% |
64 |
17 |
Michael Pittman Jr. |
Tyson Campbell |
38% |
63 |
39 |
3.7 |
68 |
65.3 |
37 |
91.6 |
44 |
14% |
38 |
17 |
Elijah Moore |
Jaire Alexander |
41% |
87.5 |
80 |
0 |
80 |
71.8 |
19 |
75.5 |
24 |
9% |
3 |
17 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
Kaiir Elam |
36% |
73.9 |
61 |
4.3 |
64 |
62.4 |
44 |
77.4 |
27 |
14% |
36 |
17 |
Nelson Agholor |
Martin Emerson |
56% |
58.3 |
24 |
16.7 |
9 |
73.9 |
14 |
83.7 |
33 |
18% |
66 |
16 |
Cam Sims |
Kindle Vildor |
47% |
59.1 |
26 |
9.1 |
40 |
62.4 |
43 |
81.3 |
30 |
13% |
31 |
16 |
Michael Gallup |
Darius Slay |
46% |
46.7 |
9 |
3.3 |
69 |
71.5 |
21 |
47.6 |
7 |
17% |
55 |
15 |
Bennett Skowronek |
Donte Jackson |
30% |
66.7 |
48 |
0 |
72 |
62.5 |
42 |
87.6 |
38 |
14% |
34 |
14 |
Mike Williams |
Patrick Surtain II |
48% |
61.3 |
35 |
12.9 |
23 |
88.1 |
1 |
72.4 |
21 |
17% |
60 |
13 |
Darius Slayton |
Marlon Humphrey |
38% |
69.2 |
54 |
0 |
74 |
69.7 |
25 |
52.2 |
8 |
11% |
14 |
13 |
DeVonta Smith |
Trevon Diggs |
43% |
62.9 |
37 |
17.1 |
7 |
73.1 |
15 |
90.2 |
42 |
16% |
51 |
13 |
David Sills |
Marcus Peters |
45% |
60.9 |
33 |
17.4 |
6 |
70.5 |
22 |
88.3 |
41 |
14% |
40 |
13 |
Marquez Callaway |
Chidobe Awuzie |
54% |
42.4 |
5 |
12.1 |
25 |
68.4 |
28 |
61.4 |
12 |
15% |
47 |
13 |
Mike Evans |
Cameron Sutton |
46% |
64 |
41 |
24 |
3 |
70.3 |
23 |
94 |
46 |
12% |
20 |
12 |
Ja’Marr Chase |
Marshon Lattimore |
44% |
52.6 |
15 |
10.5 |
35 |
55.7 |
56 |
71.4 |
20 |
11% |
12 |
12 |
Russell Gage |
Levi Wallace |
28% |
57.7 |
20 |
11.5 |
30 |
52.6 |
60 |
83.2 |
32 |
19% |
69 |
12 |
Darnell Mooney |
Benjamin St-Juste |
48% |
42.3 |
4 |
15.4 |
17 |
65.3 |
36 |
73.2 |
22 |
15% |
46 |
12 |
Adam Thielen |
Nik Needham |
42% |
57.1 |
19 |
14.3 |
18 |
66 |
34 |
115.2 |
66 |
8% |
2 |
12 |
D.J. Moore |
Jalen Ramsey |
40% |
66.7 |
49 |
22.2 |
4 |
79.7 |
7 |
111.3 |
64 |
10% |
10 |
11 |
Jaylen Waddle |
Patrick Peterson |
43% |
50 |
12 |
13.6 |
20 |
58.6 |
50 |
71 |
19 |
11% |
13 |
10 |
Terry McLaurin |
Jaylon Johnson |
50% |
33.3 |
1 |
0 |
71 |
72.2 |
17 |
42.4 |
5 |
5% |
1 |
9 |
Donovan Peoples-Jones |
Jonathan Jones |
39% |
58.8 |
25 |
11.8 |
27 |
82.3 |
3 |
87.6 |
37 |
11% |
15 |
8 |
Deebo Samuel |
Casey Hayward Jr. |
37% |
52 |
14 |
12 |
26 |
68.5 |
27 |
75.1 |
23 |
12% |
23 |
8 |
Marquise Brown |
Tariq Woolen |
30% |
55 |
17 |
5 |
55 |
64.3 |
40 |
40.2 |
4 |
12% |
18 |
8 |
Romeo Doubs |
Sauce Gardner |
43% |
50 |
11 |
16.7 |
8 |
67.6 |
30 |
62.3 |
14 |
13% |
29 |
8 |
Marvin Jones Jr. |
Stephon Gilmore |
32% |
59.4 |
29 |
15.6 |
16 |
82.8 |
2 |
67.4 |
15 |
17% |
54 |
7 |
Romeo Doubs |
D.J. Reed Jr. |
40% |
47.8 |
10 |
8.7 |
42 |
74.1 |
13 |
39.8 |
3 |
12% |
21 |
7 |
Michael Gallup |
James Bradberry |
46% |
45.2 |
7 |
12.9 |
22 |
80.2 |
6 |
29.9 |
2 |
14% |
39 |
7 |
KhaDarel Hodge |
Charvarius Ward |
51% |
51.9 |
13 |
25.9 |
2 |
81.5 |
5 |
69.7 |
17 |
14% |
32 |
7 |
Diontae Johnson |
Jamel Dean |
49% |
44 |
6 |
16 |
11 |
81.8 |
4 |
44.6 |
6 |
12% |
17 |
4 |
Allen Robinson II |
Jaycee Horn |
36% |
38.9 |
2 |
11.1 |
31 |
77.2 |
10 |
23.8 |
1 |
10% |
5 |
4 |
Demarcus Robinson |
Fabian Moreau |
47% |
40 |
3 |
30 |
1 |
78 |
8 |
58.8 |
9 |
10% |
8 |
3 |
*thanks again to PFF for the data
WR Matchups to Target in Week 6
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS)
Samuel comes in as our ONLY top 10 matchup in BOTH models. Much of this has to do with the draw of Bears Rookie CB Kyler Gordon, who we have been all over this season. We are expecting almost three-quarters of Samuel’s pass snaps to go up against the first-year cover man and his 43.5 Coverage grade per PFF. Given Gordon sees a target on more than 20% of his pass snaps, we love the massive (No. 1) speed advantage of Samuel’s 4.31 vs. Gordon’s 4.52.
Kendall Hinton (WR – DEN)
Hinton should see the majority of his pass snaps (60%) vs. J.C. Jackson this week. Although Jackson has had much better seasons under his belt, he is currently allowing a 149 QBR when targeted and a 75% catch rate (64th/80 DBs). Given that Jackson has been targeted on 17% of his pass snaps, this could be an explosive day for the deep sleeper.
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR – ATL)
Zaccheaus is an interesting pick. He is at a height disadvantage in this game but balances that with our 24th-best speed advantage on the physical side. However, the fact he will face Deommodore Lenoir on about half his pass snaps bodes well for the veteran WR. Lenoir has given up the third-highest catch rate (87%), has yet to force an incompletion and has been absolutely PEPPERED, with a 25% target rate. Stop and think about that for a minute. Even through five weeks of data, this DB has seen a ball thrown his way every four passes and done nothing about it.
Others to consider bumping up this week:
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 6
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Johnson draws a very tough matchup this week. He will face Jamel Dean on just about half of his pass snaps. Dean carries an 81.8 coverage grade, the sixth-best catch rate (44%) and a nasty QBR of 44.6 when targetted. On top of that, Johnson comes in as the WORST matchup on our base model, giving up three inches to Carlton Davis (the “other” half of his snaps at 43%), and can not match EITHER CB with speed sporting a 4.6 40 vs. Dean and Davis’ respective 4.53 and 4.3.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
McLaurin will likely see half of his pass snaps vs. Bears up-and-comer CB Jaylon Johnson, fresh off injury. Normally this would be a good thing; however, even the few times on the field, teams have shied away from his side, being targetted a league-low 5% of the time. Additionally, using the first model McLaurin matches up with ALL DBs poorly, coming in with our 64th and 66th weighted points per reception metric and weighted net overall grade.
Others to consider sitting:
- Allen Robinson
- Hollywood Brown
This should be a great week for us, especially considering the second chart now gives us data much more likely to be predictive. Good Luck.