WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 5 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Four weeks into the 2022 season, the biggest “League-wide” theme has been the drop in offensive performance. As we noted last week, many believe this is due to the increase in the 2-high shell looks defenses are showing. Whether this is causal or not is still being widely debated within the analytics circles. However, we need to remember coaches and OCs are human. And it’s VERY likely that they are seeing the same thing and making adjustments in the perpetual game of cat-and-mouse that is football strategy.

Here is what I mean by this:

• Let’s assume that defenses have adjusted from the “post-Legion-of-Boom era,” with their single high, “Saben-Rip/Liz Match” type defenses, to using more 2-high safety looks
• Let’s also assume THOSE DCs are doing this to limit explosive passing plays (i.e., putting a roof over the coverage and keeping everything in front of them)
• If this is the case, we need to remember EVERYTHING in football strategy is a zero-sum game. Meaning if you do x instead of z, there will be pros and cons along with the decision
• By using more 2-High shells, that means there can only be 7 or fewer players in the box

Now you astute football fans likely think that offenses will start to run more, and likely more effectively as well, to combat the 2-high look/take advantage of a lighter box. And you’d be absolutely correct. As Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis noted:

“This also blends with the overall trend of passing efficiency being down across the league from prior years, as defenses are doing better at stopping the big play. Passing efficiency through four weeks is at its lowest over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, rushing efficiency is at its highest. Rushing still brings negative EPA, but we currently have the smallest gap between passing and rushing that we’ve seen in a while – and for this, scrambles are considered dropbacks.”

The chart he was citing, thanks to Sharp Football, is included below:

What all this means to us and this piece is: Not only are we working through an overall offensive downturn while trying to find WR value, but we are doing it while getting the “short end of the stick.” This may mean more RBs in the flex spot moving forward, etc., but that’s a story for another day.

Nonetheless, we need to start 2-3 WRs, and we will do our best in this environment to help you through those decisions.

Week 4 Results: 3-2

We ended positively last week, yet we failed for all intents and purposes. Our model absolutely loved Richie James, and he could not have let us down more, ending the day in the rare negative territory.

Season Scorecard

• Season Record: 20-12
• Total Net Points: 65.9
• Net Points/Selection: +2.1

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 5 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

• Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
• Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Wt.ed Net PPRR Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run

• DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
• DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
• DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

• *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DBs)
• *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
• nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)

Bonus Chart

Most frequently targeted CBs (Rookies Highlighted in yellow)

Although not officially worked into our model, we do like to use the info above (thanks again to PFF) to support some of our decisions.

WR Matchups to Target in Week 5

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Cody Hollister (WR – TEN)

“Deep Pick Alert.” Hollister surprised us as much as you. However, for non-clear-starters, he comes in as the highest-rated WR at 15. This is mainly fueled by a physical advantage. He is expected to see the majority of snaps vs. Kendall Fuller, who he has a whopping 5-inch advantage on (76 vs. 71 inches). To be fair, we’re counting on this to be an endzone/touchdown-dependent type play for the veteran, “no name” WR.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)

This may push the boundary for a “non-obvious starter” after the vet has put together back-to-back double-digit outings in a row (in Jefferson’s shadow). Nonetheless, we really like Thielen this week and are happy to continue to take the “1B to Jefferson discount” we’re still getting with him. He comes in as our 17th-best matchup and will face the majority of snaps vs. Bears CB Kindle Vildor and his 54.3 PFF grade.

Josh Reynolds (WR – DET)

Reynolds has quietly put together a stellar WR season, especially if you exclude week 1. He is seemingly fitting into the void our model keeps picking up for DJ Chark, and we finally have a week that our model is calling for him. Reynolds comes in with a great height advantage and a good grade advantage, assuming he will see Jonathan Jones (42%) and Jalen Mills (37%) on expected pass snaps.

Others to consider bumping up this week:

• Zay Jones
• Mike Williams

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 5

Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV)

Admittedly, we are most excited to handle this write-up, knowing Renfrow is the top WR free agent pickup in about 29% of leagues this week and may seem enticing coming back from injury. However, Renfrow is our absolute worst matchup ranking for the week. He just about “checks all boxes” in the opposite direction. Clearly, we are not going to bring up any physical matchup disadvantages, as Renfrow has played with that handicap his whole career, but his comparative numbers are just as bad. Being the slot WR that he is, it’s looking like he will spend the day putting up his measly 55 PFF grade vs. L’Jarius Sneed‘s 82.9.

Davante Adams (WR – LV)

Yes, we are basically shorting the Raiders’ offense here. Beyond the mismatch Renfrow will have with Sneed, this is a rare game Adams pops up here. This is especially considering the Raiders have made it a point to feed him the ball after a couple of weeks of failing to do so. Either way, Adams comes in with a bad matchup in height and speed and one of the lower net yards per route run, at least for him (coming in at 48th on the week). With how much the Raiders move Adams around, he doesn’t really have a true “Shadow” in this game and will likely see three different defenders somewhat equally, but they all have lower NYPRRs than Adams’ 1.75 (Jaylen Watson with 1.12, Rashad Fenton at 1.15 and Sneed at 1.19).

Others to consider sitting:

• Tyler Lockett
• Michael Pittman

After a clunker last week, we’re looking to crush week 5. Best of luck to you all.

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