Four weeks into the 2022 season, the biggest “League-wide” theme has been the drop in offensive performance. As we noted last week, many believe this is due to the increase in the 2-high shell looks defenses are showing. Whether this is causal or not is still being widely debated within the analytics circles. However, we need to remember coaches and OCs are human. And it’s VERY likely that they are seeing the same thing and making adjustments in the perpetual game of cat-and-mouse that is football strategy.

Here is what I mean by this:

• Let’s assume that defenses have adjusted from the “post-Legion-of-Boom era,” with their single high, “Saben-Rip/Liz Match” type defenses, to using more 2-high safety looks
• Let’s also assume THOSE DCs are doing this to limit explosive passing plays (i.e., putting a roof over the coverage and keeping everything in front of them)
• If this is the case, we need to remember EVERYTHING in football strategy is a zero-sum game. Meaning if you do x instead of z, there will be pros and cons along with the decision
• By using more 2-High shells, that means there can only be 7 or fewer players in the box

Now you astute football fans likely think that offenses will start to run more, and likely more effectively as well, to combat the 2-high look/take advantage of a lighter box. And you’d be absolutely correct. As Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis noted: