Week 8 Sunday Night Football Showdown DFS Primer (Packers at Bills)

The Bills are massive favorites after their Week 7 bye. Conversely, the Packers are reeling, entering the contest on a three-game losing streak. Buffalo should handle their business, reflected in the player suggestions and final thoughts on the Sunday Night Football showdown slate.

Game: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills

Spread: BUF -10.5 Points

Over/Under: 47.0 Points

Packers Analysis: The Packers have an implied total of only 18.25 points. They've also bested 22 points only twice this year, needing an overtime win to do so once. With No. 1 wideout Allen Lazard ruled out, they will likely struggle in a nightmare matchup.

According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are first in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), fourth in pass defense DVOA and first in rush defense DVOA. Buffalo is also fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for third in turnovers forced (13), tied for seventh in sacks (19) and first in scoring defense (13.5 points per game), per Pro-Football-Reference.

Since the Packers are double-digit underdogs, they'll likely be in a negative game script and forced to air it out. As a result, their most intriguing DFS options are pass-catchers Robert Tonyan, Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 5, Tonyan is third on the Packers in routes (84), second in targets (20) and receiving yards (145) and first in receptions (17).

Watkins returned from Injured Reserve (IR) last week and was fourth on the Packers in routes (20), the second most among wide receivers. He had two receptions and 36 yards on four targets. Watkins also demonstrated he had some gas left in the tank earlier this year, hauling in three receptions for 93 yards on four targets in Week 4.

Head coach Matt LaFleur is "cautiously optimistic" about Watson returning from a two-game absence. Green Bay's second-round pick had a career-high 34 receiving yards and added seven rushing yards in Week 1 but has had only 30 scrimmage yards in three games since. Watson's production has left a lot to be desired. Regardless, he's an elite athlete and is rejoining an offense desperately needing a spark, making him a viable dart throw.

Bills Analysis: Josh Allen is the frontrunner for the NFL MVP Award and putting up silly numbers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the dual-threat superstar averages an NFL-high 330.0 passing yards per game and leads the way in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.43 ANY/A). Allen has also tossed 17 touchdowns, rushed for two and averaged 42.8 yards on the ground per game. As a result, Allen's a no-brainer pick.

Stefon Diggs is the top dog in Buffalo's passing attack and one of the best wideouts in the NFL. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Diggs is 13th in Target Share (27.0%) and Intended Air Yards (656). Diggs has parlayed his elite underlying stats with bloated box-score production, tying for second in touchdown receptions (six) and ranking second in receptions (8.2) and receiving yards (109.3) per game.

Gabe Davis is Buffalo's unquestioned No. 2 wideout. He battled an ankle injury for a few weeks, missing Buffalo's Week 2 contest. However, Davis has dazzled in three games played in which he didn't appear on the Buffalo's injury report. In Weeks 1, 5 and 6, Davis had 10 receptions for 333 yards, 2.92 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and four touchdowns on 16 targets, per PFF.

The matchup is also likely excellent for Diggs and Davis. According to PFF, the Packers played man coverage at a 45.5% clip in Week 6 and 47.2% in Week 7, much higher than the 2022 league average of 29.7%. In addition, the Bills have faced man coverage at a 35.4% rate.

Allen hasn't messed around with ancillary weapons against man coverage. Instead, he's leaned on Diggs and Davis. According to PFF, in the three games that Davis wasn't on the injury report, Diggs had 10 targets and Davis had five against man coverage. Meanwhile, Isaiah Hodgins and Khalil Shakir were tied for third on the team with three targets. It should be the Diggs and Davis show in Buffalo's passing attack.

Still, there's lots of meat on the bone for others to contribute to Buffalo's aerial assault. The Bills have a pass-heavy offense that doesn't take its foot off the pedal when leading by a wide margin. According to numberFire, the Bills have attempted 188 passes and only 67 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year. Yet, they don't slow down much when leading. When leading by at least eight points in 2022, the Bills have attempted 40 passes and only 20 rushes by non-quarterbacks.

Therefore, Dawson Knox, Shakir and Reggie Gilliam can get by with scraps behind Diggs and Davis. Knox is always on the field, owning a 77% snap share.

Shakir is a candidate for a post-bye bump in playing time as a rookie who's teased his skills in limited opportunities and the preseason, while Isaiah McKenzie has failed to thrive in an increased role this year.

Gilliam ran a season-high 13 routes in Week 6 and reeled in all three of his targets for 18 scoreless yards. The third-year pro is used as a fullback and tight end. Gilliam has also scored a touchdown this year and could maintain a modest role in the offense after playing well in his extended look before Buffalo's bye in Week 7.

Finally, James Cook is another candidate for a post-bye rookie bump in playing time. Zack Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 6, and the team has eased Devin Singletary's workload in blowouts. When the Bills have led by at least eight points this season, Singletary has carried the ball six times for 49 scoreless yards, Moss has handled two attempts for 19 scoreless yards and Cook has toted the rock 12 times for 83 yards and a touchdown. Thus, Cook is a nifty pick since I expect the Bills to boat-race the Packers.

Final Thoughts: Allen is the best choice for captain/MVP. However, Diggs and Davis aren't outrageous contrarian alternatives. The trio is on all my showdown teams as part of a Bills' onslaught lineup construction. There's a game-theory case for using the Packers, but I can't fathom Green Bay will play well against Buffalo's elite defense. So, I'm using only the minimum required one Packer on my showdown teams.

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