The Week 7 main slate includes 11 games at DraftKings and FanDuel, the same as last week’s main slate. There’s, interestingly, a decided lack of projected shootouts. Only one game has a total of at least 50 points.
Week 7 Matchups
Game: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Browns Analysis: David Njoku has been Cleveland's most productive pass-catcher the last three weeks. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's third on the Browns in routes (104) since Week 4. However, Njoku is also third in targets (18) and first in receptions (14), receiving yards (219) and Yards per Route Run (2.23 Y/RR).
Meanwhile, Donovan Peoples-Jones led the team in routes (106) during that three-game stretch and was second in targets (20), receptions (13), receiving yards (195) and Yards per Route Run (1.84 Y/RR). Therefore, he's an intriguing punt in a game the Browns are projected to be playing from behind.
Ravens Analysis: Mark Andrews has been outstanding this year. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's second in Target Share (33.3%). In addition, per PFF, Andrews is first in Yards per Route Run (2.32 Y/RR) out of 32 tight ends targeted at least 15 times in 2022.
So, Andrews has been a target hog and efficient, resulting in five touchdowns and 6.5 receptions and 75.8 receiving yards per game. He's a stud at a position lacking top-shelf talent, making him an enticing selection as our projected TE1 at both DFS outlets, with the TE1 value score (TE1V) at FD and TE3V at DK in the lineup optimizer tool. However, gamers need to monitor his status since he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
The defense is also an exciting pick. The Ravens are favorites, and the defense can get after the quarterback and force turnovers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens are tied for 10th in sacks (15) and tied for third in turnovers (12). Conversely, Jacoby Brissett has been hot garbage in three consecutive losses, taking five sacks and turning the ball over five times.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: TB -11.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers suffered a surprising loss in Pittsburgh last week. However, they're in a rebound spot as double-digit favorites against the hapless Panthers. It's also a get-right matchup for Tom Brady. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers are 25th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Brady had also played well in back-to-back games before passing for only 243 yards and a touchdown last week. In Week 4 and Week 5, Brady passed for 736 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Additionally, Brady has had two blow-up performances in his last three games against the Panthers, eclipsing 325 yards with three touchdowns in each of his eruptions.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the most likely beneficiaries if Brady carves up Carolina's lousy pass defense. According to PFF, Evans and Godwin are first and second on the Bucs in routes (135 and 111) and receiving yards (226 and 215) in the past three weeks. The matchup is also arguably equally good for them. Per Football Outsiders, the Panthers have allowed precisely 67.8 receiving yards per game to No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. Finally, Evans has the second-largest, and Godwin has the fifth-largest matchup advantage among wideouts on this week's main slate on the PFF wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
Panthers Analysis: There was originally a write-up in this section about Christian McCaffrey. However, he's been traded to the 49ers. So, the Panthers are now officially worthless in DFS.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The most exciting DFS options on the Falcons are pass-catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, they've attempted only 40 passes in neutral game scripts in the past three weeks. On the flip side, their non-quarterbacks have rushed 61 times, and Marcus Mariota has attempted 12 rushes. So, if they can avoid being in a negative game script for most of this week's game, they're a fantasy wasteland. Mariota isn't a great passer, capping the upside of London and Pitts even if they have to air it out in catch-up mode. So, this is an offense to fade in DFS.
Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow has been sharp in three of his last four games and had his best game of 2022 last week, ripping the Saints for 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 25 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
Thankfully, a tangible change to the offense might be to credit for Burrow's excellent game. He reportedly ran 52 of 54 plays out of shotgun, and the only plays under center were for a sneak and to take a knee. The third-year quarterback has a tantalizing matchup this week to build on last week's showing. The Falcons are 23rd in pass defense. Further, cornerback Casey Hayward was placed on Injured Reserve (IR) after suffering an injury last week, removing a talented cornerback from Atlanta's already leaky secondary.
Ja'Marr Chase is the most exciting option in Cinci's passing attack. He shredded the Saints for seven receptions, 132 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. Tee Higgins has often been nearly Chase's equal, but he was inefficient last week while playing through his ankle injury. Thus, Chase is a more compelling pick than his running mate until Higgins proves his ankle won't hinder him. The second-year wideout is also an optimizer darling, projecting as the WR1 at both DFS sites.
Hayden Hurst is an intriguing bargain option. The matchup is good, and the narrative folks should love Hurst playing in his second revenge game of 2022 after he victimized the Ravens for six receptions, 53 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Silly narrative aside, the Falcons have yielded the third-most receiving yards per game (71.5) to tight ends.
Cincinnati's defense is also a stellar pick, namely at FD, where they're our DST1V. They had a disappointing effort in a great matchup against the Saints last week when they were without their top-three wideouts. Still, if the offense stays hot and puts the Falcons in a negative game script, Mariota is a good bet to take sacks and turn the ball over. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mariota has the sixth-highest interception rate (2.9%) and the third-highest sack rate (9.3%) among qualified quarterbacks this season.
Game: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown was a stud through the first three weeks and had a dud while playing through his ankle injury in Week 5. The second-year wideout had a 29.5% Target Share, 23 receptions, 253 receiving yards, three touchdowns, 2.48 Y/RR and 68 rushing yards in Detroit's first three games.
Hopefully, Detroit's bye week is what the doctor ordered for ARSB's achy ankle. Finally, the pace should be dreamy for this game's participants. According to Football Outsiders, Dallas plays at the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Lions are sixth.
Cowboys Analysis: Dak Prescott should be back this week, elevating Dallas's offense's ceiling. Still, regardless of the quarterback, CeeDee Lamb has been a target hog. In fact, the third-year receiver is first in Target Share (33.5%). Lamb hasn't lit the world on fire, but his 5.5 receptions and 68.2 receiving yards per game have been rock-solid, and he's splashed paydirt twice.
Finally, the matchup is mouthwatering for Lamb. First, Detroit is 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Second, they've allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (82.1) to No. 1 wideouts. As a result, Lamb is a superb pick in all game types at both DFS platforms and is the WR1V at DK and WR2V at FD.
Game: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley has been electrifying as a one-man show for Big Blue. He's second in rushing yards per game (102.7) and a weapon in the passing attack. As a result, Barkley's first on the G-Men in routes (147), targets (26) and receptions (21) and second in receiving yards (155). Barkley has also scored four touchdowns and would have had a fifth if he hadn't given himself up so the Giants could kneel out the rest of the clock last week.
Barkley is playing at such a high level that he's matchup-proof. Still, he has a good matchup this week. In the last three weeks, Jacksonville's allowed 335 rushing yards and five touchdowns to running backs. Further, the Jaguars have been destroyed through the air by running backs, coughing up the second-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to them this season. So, Barkley has a sky-high ceiling this week and projects as our RB1 at DK and FD, with the RB1V at the former and RB4V at the latter.
Jaguars Analysis: Running backs are gashing Big Blue. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they're allowing 5.48 yards per carry and 10.8 yards per reception to them. Fortunately, Travis Etienne has the explosiveness to exploit New York's vulnerability to chunk plays.
Additionally, he's been significantly better than James Robinson lately in a near-even backfield split. First, in neutral game scripts since Week 4, Etienne has had 25 rush attempts for 173 yards compared to 29 for 104 for J-Rob. The second-year back has been more involved as a pass-catcher in those game scripts, too, hauling in five receptions for 63 yards versus three for 13 for Robinson.
Finally, Etienne has run 54 routes compared to 33 for Robinson since Week 4. So, Etienne should have a role in all game scripts, albeit with some risk of Robinson serving as a plodding closer if the Jaguars are leading by a wide margin.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Colts Analysis: Alec Pierce has pushed his way into meaningful production since returning from a Week 2 absence with a concussion. He's been targeted at least five times in four consecutive games and had at least 61 yards or scored a touchdown with at least three receptions in each of those contests.
Further, Pierce has done an outstanding job of blending volume and efficiency. Since Week 4, he's been targeted on 23.4% of his routes and posted 2.27 Y/RR. Finally, the matchup is literally the best. No. 2 wideouts have burned the Titans for the most receiving yards per game (83.8). Unfortunately, Matt Ryan has been lousy in outdoor games against the Jaguars (195 passing yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions) and Broncos (251 scoreless passing yards and two interceptions). Still, that's only a two-game sample, one of the defenses is elite, and he was without Michael Pittman Jr. and Pierce in the game in Jacksonville.
Titans Analysis: The Colts aren't a great matchup for Derrick Henry at a glance. They're sixth in rush defense DVOA. However, they're run defense has wilted lately. Henry steamrolled them for 114 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts in Week 4, adding three receptions for 33 yards on five targets for good measure.
Then, the Colts coughed up 94 yards on 23 attempts to Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone and Devine Ozigbo in Week 5 before getting dump trucked for 197 yards and one touchdown on 25 attempts by James Robinson, JaMycal Hasty and Etienne. So, Henry is in a smash spot with fresh legs coming off of Tennessee's bye.
Kyle Philips is a sleeper punt at DK. The rookie slot wideout turned heads in Week 1, hauling in six receptions for 66 scoreless yards on nine targets in Week 1. Unfortunately, he's had only two receptions for 12 scoreless yards and four targets in his last three games. Still, an injury might be partially to blame for Philips' ineffectiveness.
Philips first appeared on Tennessee's injury report with a shoulder injury in Week 2, was out in Week 3 and remained limited in practice with the shoulder ailment in Week 4. So yes, he was removed from the injury report and ineffective in Week 5 before the team's Week 6 bye. Still, Philips might be healthier after the break and could get a post-bye rookie bump.
The Titans desperately need production from their receivers since Treylon Burks is hurt, Robert Woods has underwhelmed, and the options behind Woods are unexciting. So, there's a path to relevance for Philips, especially if the Titans unexpectedly end up in a negative game script this week.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders
Spread: GB -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Aaron Jones was considered for inclusion because of his inviting salary at FD. Still, he ended up on the chopping block since Green Bay's offense is broken and Washington's run defense is stout. So instead, Robert Tonyan is the only intriguing option for the Packers.
Tonyan suffered a season-ending torn ACL in his knee last year. Thus, it's understandable he's slowly built up to a larger workload this year. Fortunately, Tonyan is coming off his best game of the year. Tonyan played 40 passing snaps and ran 37 routes, and both were season-high marks, significantly clear of 23 passing snaps and 23 routes, his previous highs.
The 28-year-old tight end wasn't merely getting his steps in, either. Tonyan set seasons highs for targets (12), receptions (10) and receiving yards (90). The matchup isn't ideal, but Tonyan is in Aaron Rodgers' circle of trust and should remain involved in the passing attack. Therefore, he's an adequate option at a reasonable salary at tight end in Week 7.
Commanders Analysis: It's unfathomable the Commanders were a fun offense through two weeks. Since Week 3, they've scored eight, 10, 17 and 12 points. Now, Carson Wentz is injured. Although, in fairness, Taylor Heinicke might not be a downgrade from how Wentz has played lately. Still, Washington's a non-option for DFS selections this week.
Game: New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Jets Analysis: Breece Hall is balling. The rookie running back has had at least 78 scrimmage yards and multiple receptions in four straight contests. He's also riding a three-game touchdown streak and had more than 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games. Moreover, Hall is game-script-proof since he's seized the lion's share of backfield snaps, sporting snap shares of 66%, 69% and 67% in the last three weeks.
The matchup is sweet, too. The Broncos are 18th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game (36.5) to running backs this season.
Gang Green's defense is also clicking and meets a pathetic offense this week. The Jets have held opponents to under 300 yards on offense in three straight games, forcing seven turnovers and recording nine sacks. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is a tire fire and banged up. He's taken sacks at the fourth-highest rate (9.2%) among qualified quarterbacks this year and now dealing with a hamstring injury in addition to his partially torn lat. As a result, the Jets have the DST1V at DK this week.
Broncos Analysis: Greg Dulcich was activated from IR last week and immediately took a stranglehold of Denver's tight end gig. In fact, Albert Okwuegbunam was inactive last week. Conversely, Dulcich was third on the Broncos in routes (27) and had two receptions for 44 yards and one touchdown on three targets in Week 6.
In a favorable matchup, the rookie can make an impact for the Broncos again this week. The Jets have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game (60.0) to tight ends. Finally, Dulich has the minimum salary at both sites, making him the chalk punt in cash games and a stellar selection in GPPs. He also has the TE1V at DK and TE7V at FD.
Game: Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins is built for the matchup with the Raiders. The second-year wideout is a vertical perimeter weapon. According to SIS, Collins is tied for the 10th-deepest Average Depth of Target (14.4-yard aDOT) among wideouts targeted at least 20 times this year. Conversely, the Raiders have allowed 17 completions on 33 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 air yards for 477 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Thus, Collins is tailor-made for this matchup. As a result, he's an excellent tournament selection.
Raiders Analysis: Davante Adams has been the apple of his college teammate's eye in Las Vegas's passing attack. According to SIS, Adams has the fifth-highest Target Share (31.2%). In addition, Adams has the sixth-most Intended Air Yards (658), even though the Raiders are coming off their bye.
Predictably, the stud wideout has converted his robust usage into production, averaging 5.8 receptions and 82.8 receiving yards per game. Adams has also been a regular in the end zone, scoring five touchdowns and reaching paydirt in all but one game.
Adams should come out of the bye on fire against the lowly Texans. Houston has coughed up the fourth-most receiving yards per game (87.2) to No. 1 receivers this year. So, they're unlikely to slow Adams's roll. Thus, he is projected as the WR2 at DK and WR3 at FD.
Josh Jacobs is also a high-upside choice and a screaming value at DK, where he has the RB2V. If the Raiders had intentions of divvying up backfield work in a committee, Jacobs has dashed those plans by playing at an elite level.
He's the textbook bell-cow back, handling the ball at least 18 times in four consecutive contests. Moreover, his scrimmage yards have climbed from 81 in Week 2 to 94, 175 and 193. Jacobs has also had precisely five receptions in three straight games and scored three touchdowns in his last two contests.
Jacobs's arrow is pointed upward this week in a blow-up spot. First, the Raiders are 7.0-point favorites. Second, Houston's run defense is pathetic. The Texans are 29th in rush defense DVOA, and running backs have averaged 175.8 scrimmage yards per game against them. Therefore, Jacobs is a no-brainer cash-game pick at DK and an awesome selection in all game types at both DFS outlets.
The Raiders might have to navigate injuries to key contributors. First, Darren Waller hasn't participated in practice while tending to a hamstring injury he suffered before the team's Week 6 bye. Then, Hunter Renfrow popped up on the injury report on Thursday as a non-participant in practice with a hip injury.
Mack Hollins has stepped up a couple of times this year. In Week 2, he had five receptions for 66 yards on eight targets. Then, Hollins exploded for eight receptions, 158 yards and one touchdown on 11 targets in Week 3. So, he's an intriguing dart if Renfrow is out. However, the matchup isn't great. The Texans have held No. 2 wideouts to the fourth-fewest yards per game (34.0) this year.
Conversely, Foster Moreau has a better matchup. Houston's allowed 55.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends, more than the league average of 50.5. The 25-year-old tight end flashed his potential in a few games last year, reaching at least 50 yards four times and scoring touchdowns in two more contests. Dulcich will likely be chalkier, making Moreau a nifty swerve in tournaments.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: I adore D.K. Metcalf and Ken Walker this week. Thankfully, the optimizer also digs them. Metcalf is the WR7 at both sites, with the WR4V at FD. Meanwhile, Walker has the RB3V at DK and is tied for the RB6V at FD.
Instead of plagiarizing or rewording my cases for using Metcalf and Walker, I'll direct you to check out 5 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target in Week 7 at numberFire. Additionally, I'm equally enamored with them at DK.
Chargers Analysis: This is the only game with an over/under above 50 points, and the Chargers have the highest implied total (28.0 points) on the main slate. So, they're well represented on the table above.
They're also prominently featured in the lineup optimizer. Justin Herbert is the QB3 at both sites, Austin Ekeler is the RB2 at the two DFS providers, Mike Williams is the WR10 at DK and WR9 at FD, and Gerald Everett is the TE7 at both, with the TE5V at DK.
The Chargers are an uptempo and pass-happy team at its core. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers play at the fastest situation-neutral pace. In addition, they've attempted 92 passes and only 54 rushes with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in the previous three weeks.
The matchup is great for the passing attack, too. The Seahawks are 26th in pass defense DVOA. Herbert is entirely capable of carving them up. He's averaged 286.0 passing yards per game and tossed 10 touchdowns this year.
Big Mike was the latest No.1 wideout to be clamped down by Patrick Surtain and Denver's stingy pass defense in Week 6, putting a halt on his heater. Williams had 8-113-1 in Week 2, 7-120-0 in Week 4 and 10-134-0 in Week 5. He can get back on track this week and stands out on PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks chart, owning the third-largest advantage among wideouts on this week's main slate.
Keenan Allen opened the season shot out of a cannon, reeling in four receptions for 66 yards on four targets in only 22 offensive snaps. Unfortunately, he hurt his hamstring and hasn't played since Week 1. It's unclear if he'll play this week.
Still, Allen has a cushy matchup that's unwise to ignore if he suits up. As TJ Hernandez of 4For4 Football pointed out on Twitter, Seattle has been ripped by slot receivers.
Everett also has a superb matchup. The Seahawks have surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game (78.9) to tight ends. Additionally, he might have less competition for targets behind Los Angeles's elite options since Donald Parham and Joshua Palmer are in the NFL's concussion protocol.
Finally, Ekeler is an outstanding stacking option or one-off pick. The speedy do-it-all running back has caught at least four passes in every game, scored six touchdowns in the past three weeks and had more than 80 scrimmage yards in three straight. Ekeler should thrive against Seattle's giving defense. They've coughed up 167.2 scrimmage yards per game to running backs.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: KC -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs are another pass-happy and uptempo source of DFS goodness. Kansas City has attempted 72 passes and just 29 rushes with non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in the past three weeks. Further, they're eighth in situation-neutral pace.
Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes is thriving this season. He's averaging 289.3 passing yards per game and is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown passes (17). The sky's the limit for Mahomes in a matchup against San Francisco's banged-up secondary. The optimizer projects him as the QB2 at DK and FD.
His top target, Travis Kelce, is projected as the TE2 at both providers. The 33-year-old hasn't slowed down this year, eclipsing 100 yards twice, scoring four touchdowns in Week 5 and scoring touchdowns in three other contests. Kelce is averaging 6.8 receptions and 75.8 receiving yards per game. He's also been efficient, ranking second in Yards per Route Run (2.08 Y/RR) among 23 tight ends targeted at least 20 times this season.
The 49ers have allowed the fewest receiving yards per game (22.7) to tight ends. So, obviously, the matchup isn't ideal. Regardless, Kelce is a matchup-proof stud who gamers can fire bullets on in tournaments.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore are also tournament-worthy darts. Unfortunately, MVS had a bagel in the box score last week. Still, since Week 4, he's third on the Chiefs in routes (114), targets (16), receptions (nine) and yards (153). Simply, running routes in a Mahomes-led offense can yield DFS-friendly results.
The case for casting a dart in Moore's direction is flimsier. However, his role has modestly grown for the Chiefs. Moore ran only 11 routes in the first three weeks. In the past three weeks, he's run 11, 14 and 13 routes. Additionally, Moore has been targeted on 23.7% of his routes since Week 4, suggesting he's earning looks, or Andy Reid is making a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands when he's on the field.
Could Moore see an uptick in playing time this week? Maybe. However, it's probably more likely he will emerge after the team's Week 8 bye. So, Moore is a longshot who gamers shouldn't go overboard using in DFS. Still, he's a contrarian stacking option with Mahomes.
49ers Analysis: George Kittle had his best game of 2022 last week, corralling eight receptions for 83 yards on 10 targets in San Francisco's loss. They're underdogs this week against Kansas City's high-octane offense. Therefore, the 49ers might be forced to take to the air to keep up.
Kittle is a likely candidate to receive looks in San Francisco's top-heavy receiving corps. In the last three weeks, only three players have double-digit targets for the 49ers. Deebo Samuel has led them with 25 targets, followed by Brandon Aiyuk's 19 and Kittle's 18. Still, Kittle's 15 receptions have been tied for the most receptions during that stretch. He's also had a respectable 154 receiving yards.
Kittle isn't an attractive option as a standalone pick. However, he's a stellar bring-back for a Chiefs stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
