The Broncos have had extra time to lick their wounds after an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football last week. It might not matter against the host and favored Chargers. Los Angeles has rattled off back-to-back wins after a disastrous Week 3. They’re the more represented team for this showdown slate. The suggested players are narrowly focused for both teams on this week’s Monday Night Football slate.
Game: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Broncos Analysis: Courtland Sutton is the worthwhile piece of Denver's passing attack. Russell Wilson has struggled to adjust to his first year in Denver's offense, and it was revealed he has a partially torn lat. Still, Sutton has an opportunity for success as a target hog and the passing attack's alpha.
First, according to Football Outsiders, the Chargers have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game (77.2) to No. 1 wideouts in 2022. Second, Sutton has been the runaway No. 1 receiver for the Broncos. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Sutton is third in Intended Air Yards (645) and has a juicy Target Share (27.9%).
Fortunately, he's parlayed his looks into production. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Sutton's 29 receptions and 417 receiving yards lead the Broncos, and the former is more than twice the mark of the second-highest total among Denver's healthy players. Specifically, Jerry Jeudy has 29 targets, 14 receptions and 236 receiving yards. Moreover, no one else on the Broncos has reached triple-digit receiving yardage.
Denver's most likely avenue for offensive success is on the ground. According to Football Outsiders, the Broncos are ninth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.63). In addition, PFF has been even more impressed by their run blocking, grading the Broncos seventh. Denver's ability to run block meshes perfectly with Los Angeles's ineptitude in defending the run.
Per Football Outsiders, the Chargers are 22nd in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They're also 28th in PFF's rush defense rankings. Comparatively, they're 12th in pass defense DVOA. So, they're much easier to run against than pass against. They've also been mired in a funk, allowing more than 130 rushing yards in three consecutive games and coughing up 213 yards on the ground to the Browns last week.
Even without Javonte Williams, the Broncos can pound the rock with Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. Gordon played 56% of the team's snaps in the first game without Williams this year, and Boone handled a 41% snap share. Further, per PFF, Gordon ran 21 routes and Boone managed 19. Though, both backs caught three passes, with Gordon's resulting in 49 yards and Boone's totaling 47. Gordon also rushed 15 times for 54 yards, and Boone toted the rock seven times for 38 yards. So, Gordon led the backfield duo, but Boone showed well.
Both backs are stellar selections and can be used on the same roster together. However, Boone is the more exciting option as a relative bargain.
Chargers Analysis: Austin Ekeler has been fired out of a cannon in recent weeks. After drilling the Texans for 109 scrimmage yards, six receptions and three touchdowns in Week 4, he rocked the Browns for 199 scrimmage yards, four receptions and two touchdowns last week.
The do-it-all back has caught at least four passes in every game and is game-script-proof. The matchup isn't too shabby for him on the ground, though. Denver is 16th in PFF's rush defense rankings and 15th in rush defense DVOA. Further, they're a stiffer test through the air than on the ground, sporting the 2nd-best pass defense DVOA.
So, Ekeler might do the bulk of his damage on the ground this week. And the game script could also lend itself to Ekeler toting the rock for the favored Chargers. Nevertheless, Ekeler's receiving prowess elevates his floor and ceiling. He also might be one of the busiest pass-catchers for the Chargers, given their strength in the secondary.
Denver has held No. 1 wideouts to only 67.9 receiving yards per game, under the league average of 69.7. They've also held No. 2 wideouts to 44.2 receiving yards per game and other wideouts to 18.4. The matchup is also a stylistic nightmare for Mike Williams. Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy discussed the specifics, but gamers are advised to fade Williams.
Instead, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter and Joshua Palmer are better selections at their respective salaries and in that order. Everett has had 15 targets, eight receptions, 88 receiving yards, and one touchdown in the last three weeks without Keenan Allen. The veteran tight end hasn't done much damage after the catch, but it's in his skill set.
Since Week 3, Palmer has been second on the Chargers in routes (101), parlaying his opportunities into 16 targets, 10 receptions and 148 scoreless yards. Unfortunately, he's had 25 yards and 24 yards in the two previous games.
Meanwhile, Carter's salary is markedly lower, but he's run a rock-solid 89 routes in the last three weeks. So, he hasn't been far behind Palmer. However, Carter hasn't shined lately, amassing 16 and nine yards in the last two weeks. Still, he's had a 6.4-yard aDOT since Week 3. So, Carter could be an underneath weapon against Denver's stingy pass defense.
Finally, Justin Herbert is the safest exposure to Los Angeles's passing attack. The third-year quarterback hasn't been shy about spreading the ball around. In fact, 14 players have had at least one target on the Chargers this year. Herbert's averaging 295.6 passing yards per game with 10 touchdown passes. He's tossed multiple touchdowns three times this year and eclipsed 300 passing yards twice. It has also been encouraging that he's produced while playing through his rib injury.
Final Thoughts: First, Ekeler is the best captain/MVP selection. Although, Herbert is also an excellent choice with a few of his pass-catchers in the flex spots, including Ekeler. A balanced build is fine. However, a four-to-two Chargers lineup with Ekeler, Herbert and two of his value pass-catchers opposite Boone and either Gordon or Sutton is my preferred lineup construction on DraftKings.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
