The Raiders earned their first win of the year last week, but they’re rightfully sizable underdogs in Kansas City. The Chiefs’ offense clicked on all cylinders in a convincing rebound win last week. They should stay hot on Monday night, reflected in the following player suggestions.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders' offense is straightforward. They've passed 74 times versus 46 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year, and the passing attack goes through Davante Adams. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Adams is tied for fourth in Target Share (32.2%), sixth in Intended Air Yards (444) and has had a reasonable average depth of target (9.4 aDOT). So, he's a ball hog.
Adams hasn't turned his delicious volume into huge games every week. Still, he's gone over 100 yards twice (Week 1 and Week 4) and scored a touchdown in three games. Further, his matchup is outstanding. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game (81.0) to No. 1 wide receivers this year. So, Adams should eat.
The matchup is good for Derek Carr, too. Per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are 21st in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game (263.8) and 10 touchdowns versus only one interception. So, understandably, teams have attacked the Chiefs through the air. Kansas City's opponents have attempted 80 passes compared to only 48 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
Sadly, Carr hasn't consistently been good this year. Nevertheless, he's passed for multiple touchdowns in three games, bested 300 yards once and also passed for 295 yards once. Carr demonstrated his floor last week, though. He passed for only 188 scoreless yards in the Raiders' first win of the year. If Las Vegas springs the upset, that might be bad news for Carr. However, if he's forced to air it out in catch-up mode, Carr should pile up fantasy points.
Hunter Renfrow is back from a two-game absence while recovering from a concussion. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Renfrow was third on the Raiders in routes (70), second in targets (15) and tied for second in receptions (10) in two healthy games this year. As a result, I'd much rather have Renfrow at his salary than Darren Waller at his salary.
Finally, Josh Jacobs is game-script proof. The Raiders added Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden in free agency and drafted Zamir White, but Jacobs has ascended to a bell-cow role. Jacobs has had at least a 60% snap share in every game, has reached at least 64% in the past three weeks and spiked to 89% last week.
The Chiefs are a tricky matchup for the Jacobs on the ground, ranking fifth in rush defense DVOA. However, gamers shouldn't immediately write off Jacobs because of the matchup. The Raiders line has done an elite job of run blocking. According to Football Outsiders, they're second in Adjusted Line Yards (5.19). Although, PFF disagrees with Football Outsiders' assessment. Instead, they've graded the Raiders 29th in run blocking.
Still, Jacobs can deliver for gamers who use him in DFS lineups through the passing game. Jacobs has left his backfield mates in the dust for passing work. He's run 51 routes in the last two weeks, and Bolden has been his closest competition at 24 routes. Finally, the Chiefs have been smashed by running backs through the air, allowing the most receiving yards per game (70.2) to them.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes should be licking his lips in anticipation of Monday's game against the Raiders. First, they're 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Second, they've allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (253.8) and seven touchdowns in 2022, despite facing a pedestrian run of quarterbacks to open the year. Finally, they've been lit on fire in neutral game scripts, allowing quarterbacks to complete 56 of 67 passes (83.6%) for 641 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Conversely, Mahomes has been sharp. He's passed for the seventh-most yards per game (276.5) and tied for the most touchdown passes (11). Thus, Mahomes will likely rip the Raiders limb from limb.
Travis Kelce is the clear-cut top option for Mahomes to throw the ball to. He leads the Chiefs in routes (142), targets (34), receptions (26), receiving yards (322) and is tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions (three). The matchup isn't too shabby, either. The Raiders have coughed up the 11th-most receiving yards per game (56.4) to tight ends. Interestingly, five teams that have allowed more passing yards to tight ends than the Raiders have faced Kelce or Mark Andrews. Thus, the matchup might be even better than meets the eye.
Thankfully, there's plenty of meat on the bone for Kansas City's other pass-catchers. They're a pass-first offense. Mahomes has thrown 86 passes in neutral game scripts this season, and non-quarterbacks have had just 46 rushes. The Chiefs have rotated through wideouts and used multiple tight ends.
Still, JuJu Smith-Schuster is second on the club in targets (25), receptions (19) and receiving yards (224) and third in routes (125). Still, he hasn't been a world-beater. Smith-Schuster has also been an afterthought in the red zone for a team that loves throwing in scoring territory. Mahomes has the most pass attempts inside the 20-yard line (33). but Smith-Schuster has been the recipient of only two targets in that area of the field.
So, Smith-Schuster is a fine selection for gamers with the requisite cap space to squeeze him in because of his standing in Kansas City's pass-catching pecking order. However, gamers shouldn't feel obligated to shoo-horn him into their lineups.
Skyy Moore, Justin Watson and Noah Gray are excellent value picks. In the previous two weeks, Mecole Hardman has had only three targets, two receptions and six scoreless yards on 47 routes, the fourth-most routes on the team. So, he could be phased out of the offense at any time.
Meanwhile, Moore had an interesting showing last week. He ran only 11 routes but was targeted four times and turned them into two receptions for 31 yards. Thus, it's reasonable to speculate on Moore carving out a more prominent role.
Watson's role as a rotational field stretcher is clear. He's run between six and eight routes every week. Additionally, according to PFF, he's had a 20.2-yard aDOT. Watson's role has yielded three bagels. Yet, Watson also has a 2-50-1 line on his ledger. Finally, the matchup might be perfect for Watson popping up for a big play.
The Raiders have allowed 14 completions on 26 attempts of at least 15 Air Yards for 397 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. However, Kyler Murray's one-for-five effort for 24 scoreless yards, zero touchdowns and one interception in donkey Kliff Kingsbury's offense drag the totals down a bit. So, Mahomes should have success deep, and Watson might be on the receiving end of a bomb.
Gray scored a one-yard touchdown run last week and failed to corral his only target. The second-year tight end has been targeted every game and has run 58 routes, more than Watson's 28 and Moore's 22 this year. Gray has four receptions for 48 yards on eight targets. So, he's not a prominent part of the offense, but he's a rotational piece who's a worthwhile value selection.
Finally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has had a nose for the end zone. He's scored five touchdowns this year. Yet, his season highs for playing time, rushes (19) and rushing yards (92) last week were an encouraging sign for him being more than a touchdown-or-bust option.
In addition, he's run 39 routes to 30 for Jerick McKinnon in the last two weeks. CEH has also been productive in those contests, hauling in six receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Therefore, he could command a larger piece of the backfield pie.
It's not all roses, though. There is a risk that Isiah Pacheco will close the game if the Chiefs are boat-racing the Raiders. Still, if the Chiefs smash the Raiders, CEH might have had a hand in the touchdown scoring. So, the risk isn't too problematic.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes is a lineup lock. I suggest using unbalanced rosters with more Chiefs than Raiders, upwards of five-to-one at DraftKings. Still, there's some appeal to using Adams as the captain/MVP with Carr in one flex, Mahomes in another and the rest of the lineup fleshed out with Kansas City's value pass-catchers. However, Mahomes is my favorite choice for captain/MVP, followed by Kelce and then Adams.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
