There’s another game across the pond. So, the final main NFL DFS slate before bye weeks includes 12 games. This piece will narrow the player pool for consideration, even fading multiple teams. Further, many defenses are included as options because of significant salary differences between DraftKings and FanDuel and a plethora of value options opening up cap space at each DFS provider.
Week 5 Matchups
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -14.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers are massive underdogs on the road against an elite defense, with a rookie quarterback making his first start. No thanks. Gamers should avoid Pittsburgh this week.
Bills Analysis: Buffalo's table is the fullest of any featured team this week. They are optimizer darlings, with Josh Allen projected as the QB1 at both DFS sites with the QB1 value (QB1V) score at FD and the QB2V at DK. Further, Stefon Diggs is the WR2 at both, with the WR7V at DK and WR4V at FD, Gabe Davis has the WR11V at FD and Buffalo's defense is projected to lead the position in scoring.
Allen has been excellent this year, ranking second in passing yards per game (306.8) and fourth in touchdown passes (10). He's also rushed for 45.8 yards per game and two touchdowns. Allen's a one-man show.
Diggs is elite, too. He's second for receiving yards (101.5) and tied for second in receptions (7.8) per game and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (four). In addition, the underlying stats are tasty. So, Diggs is the best stacking option with Allen and a stellar one-off pick.
Unfortunately, Davis was rock-solid in Week 1 and hasn't made much noise since hurting his ankle in practice before the Week 2 contest he missed. It's not all doom and gloom, though. Davis has played at least 96% of Buffalo's snaps in all three games he's suited up. Moreover, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Davis has run a team-high 149 routes, 25 more than the next-closest total, in the three games he's played. But maybe, his injury has hampered him. So, if that's the case, Davis's progression to full practice participation on Thursday might indicate he's entirely healthy and ready to explode.
Isaiah McKenzie was limited and still in the concussion protocol, and Jamison Crowder has a fractured ankle. Therefore, rookie Khalil Shakir might be in line for his first career start. He was highly productive in college and during the preseason. According to PFF, Shakir was fifth among 97 receivers with at least eight targets in the preseason with 3.51 Yards Per Route Run (Y/RR). So, he's an intriguing GPP dart.
Devin Singletary isn't a sexy back, but he's nestled atop Buffalo's depth chart. Surprisingly, he's been heavily involved in the passing game, running 118 routes versus only 31 for Zack Moss and 12 for James Cook. Singletary has converted his routes into 17 receptions for 141 yards and one touchdown on 19 targets. Sadly, he's been underwhelming as a runner, averaging only 32.3 rushing yards per game. Still, the Bills are a massive favorite. Thus, the game script should be good. Although, there is a risk of Cook playing mop-up snaps if the Bills are blowing the doors off the Steelers, as Cook did in the Week 2 beatdown of the Titans.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Spread: LAC -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers blew up for 34 points last week. Nonetheless, the Texans will make many offenses look sharp this year. Los Angeles was also unimpressive one week prior against the Jaguars. Obviously, the Chargers have talented players on offense, but there are better choices, salaries considered, elsewhere this week.
Browns Analysis: Jacoby Brissett has played well enough for the Browns to score at least 20 points every game this year. Still, Cleveland's backfield is the backbone of the offense. Nick Chubb has the second-most rushing yards per game (114.8) this year and is a model-breaking back. Unfortunately, the Browns are underdogs. So, there's a game-script risk with Chubb. Kareem Hunt has run 67 routes versus 54 for Chubb this season. Thus, if the Browns are in a negative game script, Hunt might be the back on the field. Further, the Chargers aren't the pushover on the ground they were in 2021. There's always a case for using an elite talent like Chubb, but this isn't the optimal layout for him.
Game: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Texans Analysis: Nico Collins is the No. 2 receiver for the Texans, but he has only eight fewer receiving yards than Brandin Cooks. According to PFF, Collins is tied for 31st out of 95 receivers targeted at least 10 times with 1.82 Y/RR. The second-year wideout is a vertical option and has an intriguing matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game (39.3) to No. 1 receivers. However, they've ceded the 10th-most receiving yards per game (58.7) to No. 2 wideouts. So, Collins is a fun bring-back for a Jaguars stack or a viable tournament dart.
Jaguars Analysis: The Chargers got right against the Texans, and the Jaguars can do the same this week. Trevor Lawrence cruised through three weeks before running into the buzzsaw Eagles in the rain last week. Instead of dwelling on Lawrence's struggles last week, gamers should be encouraged by how well he played out of the gate in a fantasy-friendly offense.
The Jaguars have run a pass-leaning and uptempo offense this season. Per Football Outsiders, they've played at the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace. The offense had fit Lawrence like a glove before stumbling last week. Lawrence averaged 257.3 passing yards per game through three weeks, with six touchdowns and only one interception. If he returns to that form this week, he can pay off in DFS at his salary.
Christian Kirk is the most exciting player in Jacksonville's offense and one of the best picks on the slate at both DFS outlets. Unfortunately, Kirk had his first hiccup for the Jaguars last week, securing only two receptions for 60 yards on nine targets. The matchup and weather didn't aid him. However, per PFF, he also played a season-high 44.4% of his passing snaps aligned wide with Zay Jones out. Fortunately, Jones appears to be trending in the right direction to suit up this week, allowing Kirk to return to cooking as a vertical slot.
According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kirk is 10th in Target Share (27.9%). He's rewarded his second-year quarterback's confidence in him with 5.0 receptions and 81.8 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns. Finally, the matchup is dreamy this week. Houston's allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (105.7) to No.1 receivers on the second-most pass attempts to them per game (11.1) this season. As a result, Kirk should erupt this week.
My colleague Derek Brown tweeted about James Robinson's slip in playing time and efficiency earlier this week in regard to trading for Travis Etienne in season-long leagues.
However, J-Rob's efficiency decline is grounds for rolling the dice on Etienne in DFS in a compelling matchup. Interestingly, Etienne has earned a higher PFF rushing grade than Robinson this season, and Etienne's eight missed tackles forced on 34 rush attempts have matched Robinson's eight on 59.
And, again, the matchup is dreamy. According to Football Outsiders, the Texans are 29th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Houston has allowed the most rushing yards (563) to running backs at a blistering 4.98 yards per carry. The Texans have also been giving to backs through the air, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game (43.5) to running backs. Therefore, Etienne has a high-ceiling matchup, making him a delightful tournament selection.
Game: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Bears Analysis: Chicago's offense is a clown show. They've scored more than 20 points only one time and amassed more than 350 yards once. Fade them.
Vikings Analysis: Unfortunately, Dalvin Cook hasn't played like a superstar early. Still, he's bested 20 touches in two games and was putting together a brilliant game in his softest matchup of the season against the Lions in Week 3 before he hurt his shoulder. This week's opponent is good for Cook to strut his stuff against. The Bears are 24th in rush defense DVOA and have yielded the third-most rushing yards per game (509) at 4.80 yards per carry to running backs. Add in the 7.0-point spread favoring the Vikings, and the arrow is shooting upward for Cook this week. Thankfully, the optimizer agrees, projecting Cook as the RB5 at both DFS outlets, with the RB8V at DK and the RB1V at FD.
The good game script for Cook is also outstanding for Minnesota's defense against sack-and-turnover-prone Justin Fields. According to StatHead, Fields has the highest sack rate (13.37%) and interception rate (4.2%) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts since last year. The Vikings will feast if the Bears have to play catch-up and drop Fields back in obvious passing situations. They're projected as the DST4 at DK and FD, with the DST3V at the latter on this week's main slate.
Game: Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Lions Analysis: Frankly, Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably out this week. He hasn't practiced this week. However, if ARSB practices Friday and plays this week, he's a superb tournament pick. Gamers are familiar with St. Brown's on-field dominance. So, there's no need to dive into his numbers.
Instead, let's look at what his suiting up might indicate. First, ARSB isn't a field-stretching one-trick pony. So, the Lions wouldn't play St. Brown as a decoy to keep defenses honest deep. That's not ARSB's playing style.
Second, the Lions have a bye next week. So, if they play him, it suggests he's truly healthy enough to play since they could hold him out for an extra week of rest. Again, ARSB is probably not playing this weekend. Still, if the Lions are confident enough in his health to play him, gamers shouldn't be scared away from the second-year stud wideout in GPPs.
T.J. Hockenson was a fire-breathing monster in last week's game without ARSB. He had eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. The third-year tight end had only 82 receiving yards and one touchdown on 10 receptions through three weeks before last week's flamethrower showing. Hockenson will be a more exciting pick if ARSB is out, but he's a rock-solid choice no matter the second-year wideout's playing status. The optimizer thinks the same, ranking him as the TE1 at DK and FD, with the TE1V at DK and TE5V at FD.
Patriots Analysis: Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson can both eat against Detroit's comically bad run defense. However, Stevenson has the more valuable role, nearly evenly splitting rushing work with Harris while dominating the passing-game work. The following tables compare the statistics from both backs since Week 2 when Ty Montgomery was placed on Injured Reserve (IR). The stats on the tables are courtesy of PFF.
Stevenson has been more efficient and dynamic on the ground and through the air, besting Harris in yards per rush attempt, Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A), missed tackles forced (MTF), 10-plus yard runs (10+ yards), Yards After Catch per Reception (YAC/Rec) and Yards per Route Run (Y/RR).
The Patriots are favored. So, Harris might benefit more than Stevenson from a positive game script. Nevertheless, Stevenson is game-script-proof and is a more electrifying back. And, again, the matchup is drool-inducing. Detroit is 32nd in rush defense DVOA. The Lions have also allowed the most rushing touchdowns (eight) to running backs and ceded them an eye-popping 5.31 yards per carry.
Stevenson has a desirable floor-and-ceiling combo and is an excellent choice in all game types. He's also a value, earning the RB4V at DK and RB3V at FD in the optimizer.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Seahawks Analysis: It's hard to believe Tyler Lockett used to be a boom-or-bust wideout. However, he's been a model of consistency this year, catching at least six passes and clearing 75 receiving yards in the previous three games. According to SIS, Lockett has had 382 Intended Air Yards and a juicy 26.4% Target Share this year. The only fly in the ointment is a lack of touchdowns. Otherwise, Lockett has thrived with Geno Smith at quarterback in 2022. Finally, according to PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart, Lockett has a better matchup than D.K. Metcalf. So, Lockett is a sweet pick with DK's WR6V.
Saints Analysis: Chris Olave is the king of Intended Air Yards. According to SIS, Olave's 699 Intended Air Yards are the most, 188 more than the second-highest total. Sure, many of them have been low-percentage throws by the captain of club YOLO-ball, Jameis Winston. Still, Olave has parlayed his opportunities into 5.3 receptions and 83.8 receiving yards per game and a touchdown.
The rookie also had an encouraging game with Andy Dalton starting in London, securing four receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Further, he had a 19.4-yard aDOT in Week 4. Thus, Dalton will air it out deep to Olave. The immediate rapport with Dalton is important since Winston hasn't practiced this week.
The two should make sweet music together again if Winston is out in a tasty matchup. The Seahawks are 32nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 73.0 receiving yards per game on only 6.8 pass attempts to No. 1 receivers this season. Yeesh. Olave is the WR15 with the WR2V at DK and the WR14 with the WR12V at FD. He's a lock-button option in cash and a high-ceiling tourney pick.
Juwan Johnson is this week's best punt tight end. He was fourth on the Saints in routes (18), third in targets (four), tied for second in receptions (three) and fourth in receiving yards (33) for the Saints last week. Obviously, his numbers weren't jaw-dropping. Still, it's ideal he garnered looks from Dalton. The former wide receiver could also get more attention from Dalton in the premier matchup for tight ends. The Seahawks have allowed the most receiving yards per game (87.9). So, Johnson is a matchup-driven punt.
Game: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Spread: MIA -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Teddy Bridgewater is starting for the Dolphins this week. He capably led them in relief of Tua Tagovailoa last week. Still, Jaylen Waddle has only one reception on two targets for 19 scoreless yards on Bridgewater's 23 pass attempts. Tyreek Hill has six receptions for 109 yards on eight targets from Bridgewater, but he popped up on the injury report on Thursday, dampening enthusiasm for using him. So, gamers shouldn't feel obligated to use players from the Dolphins this week.
Jets Analysis: The Jets won Zach Wilson's season debut last week. However, they weren't an offensive juggernaut, scoring 24 points with 348 yards of offense. Gang Green has intriguing young talent, but the ball was spread around last week. Further, the matchup is challenging for their running game.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -9.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons have an implied total of just 19.5 points. Additionally, Marcus Mariota isn't built to keep a shootout close. His pass attempts have cratered from 33 in Week 1 to 26, then 20 and 19 in Week 4. Atlanta is an easy fade this week.
Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs were beaten convincingly by the Chiefs last week. However, the offense came to life with many returning starters. Unfortunately, the Bucs ran only six plays in a neutral game script last week. However, they passed four times and ran the ball twice in the limited neutral game script opportunities. So, the tides might be shifting back to a pass-happy offense.
Tom Brady had his best game of the season last week, completing 75% of his 52 attempts for 385 yards and three touchdowns. He was also sacked only one time. So, Brady could be warming up for a heater, starting with an NFC South foe he clowned last year. In 2021, Brady completed 71.3% of his 87 passes for 644 yards, nine touchdowns and only one interception in two games against Atlanta last year. He can carve up the Dirty Birds this week, and the optimizer projects him as the QB4 at both DFS outlets, with the QB1V at DK and QB3V at FD.
The Buccaneers have played two games with the cupboards full at wide receiver, and Mike Evans has been the top dog. Per PFF, in Week 1 and Week 4, Evans led the team in routes (72), targets (17), receptions (13), receiving yards (174) and touchdowns (three). Only two other players had at least 10 targets, and no one else surpassed 100 receiving yards for the Bucs. So, Evans is the most-desirable pass-catcher for the Bucs, and he has outstanding projections, ranking as the WR6 with the WR4V at DK and the WR7 with the WR6V at FD.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Spread: TEN -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Titans Analysis: Derrick Henry has rushed for a touchdown in three consecutive games and eclipsed 100 rushing yards for the first time this season last week. Therefore, he's not an indefensible pick, especially with the Titans favored. Still, there's a lot of value at running back this week, making it appealing to fade Henry and use the cap savings elsewhere.
Commanders Analysis: Carson Wentz fooled folks the first two weeks of the season before pulling the rug out by reverting to the human embodiment of a tire fire. He's passed for only 381 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions the past two weeks, taking 11 sacks and completing less than 60% of his passes. That's not good enough to support fantasy value.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: SF -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Jeff Wilson has been San Francisco's lead back in three games without Elijah Mitchell, touching the ball at least 15 times and besting 100 scrimmage yards or scoring a touchdown in each. Wilson has even reeled in multiple passes three times this year. He should be busy for the favored 49ers against the hapless Panthers this week, but his salary doesn't reflect his workload. As a result, he has the RB1V at DK and RB4V at FD. Wilson is a shoo-in for cash rosters and a decent GPP pick.
San Francisco's defense is also a tantalizing value at FD, sporting the DST1V there. The 49ers are first in total defense DVOA. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, San Francisco is first in yards per play allowed (3.8) and tied for second in sacks (15), forcing six turnovers for good measure. As a result, they'll almost certainly fluster and wreck Baker Mayfield.
Panthers Analysis: Carolina hasn't had 300 total yards of offense in a game this season. They're a dumpster fire. Can Christian McCaffrey overcome their ineptitude? Possibly. Nevertheless, paying his salary for a matchup with San Francisco's elite defense isn't advised.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: PHI -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts has been a do-it-all superstar this season. He's averaged 280.0 passing yards and 51.3 rushing yards per game while passing for four touchdowns and running for four. Hurts has also been getting chunks of yardage through the air. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Hurts is second among qualified quarterbacks in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.11 ANY/A).
In Hurts's third season, life has been good, and he should stay hot this week. The optimizer projects him as the QB2 at both DFS providers with the QB2V at FD.
A.J. Brown has been the alpha in the offense, and DeVonta Smith has had a blow-up game. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert has been an efficient complementary piece. Out of 28 tight ends with at least 10 targets this season, Goedert is fifth with 1.90 Y/RR. He'll frequently have to make the most of limited opportunities, and he's done so this year, catching at least three passes with at least 60 yards or a touchdown in every game.
Still, this week's matchup is an opportunity to crank up the production. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (84.8) and tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (three) yielded to tight ends this season. If Goedert's going to erupt in any games this year, this week's is as good of an opportunity as any. He's projected as the TE2 at DK and FD, with the TE2V at the former and TE3V at the latter.
Mies Sanders is also an intriguing piece of Philadelphia's well-oiled machine. First, the game script should be good for him since the Eagles are 5.5-point favorites. Second, Sanders has been fed a steady diet of touches, touching the ball at least 15 times every game this season. As a result, he's averaging 97.8 scrimmage yards per game, adding three touchdowns and 2.0 receptions per game.
Cardinals Analysis: Arizona's offense is bland, but it has benefited Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end is averaging 5.5 receptions and 45.3 receiving yards per game, and he's scored two touchdowns. Ertz isn't an exciting selection, but he's caught at least six passes in three consecutive games and reached double-digit points in full-point PPR formats, such as DK, in all four games. Unfortunately, the superstars at tight end aren't on the main slate. As a result, Ertz is projected at the TE3 at DK and FD, with the TE2V at DK and TE3V at FD.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: Dallas's defense has been cooking with gasoline. They've forced a rock-solid four turnovers but otherwise been elite. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.6) and tied for the second-most sacks (15). Moreover, PFF has graded them the second-best at pressuring quarterbacks this year.
Conversely, the Rams are ranked dead last in pass blocking at PFF. So, the Cowboys should pile up a bunch of sacks against the Rams. They might also pad their turnover total against interception-prone Matthew Stafford. Stafford was tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (17) last year, and he's thrown the most picks (five) through four weeks this season. As a result, the Cowboys are projected as the DST6 at DK and FD, with the DST1V at the former and DST2V at the latter.
Rams Analysis: Cooper Kupp is unstoppable. He leads the NFL in Target Share (36.5%) and receptions per game (10.5). Kupp is also fourth in receiving yards per game (100.5) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (three). There isn't much to add other than pointing out he's projected as the WR1 with the WR1V at both DFS providers. Thus, he's a must-use player in cash games.
Tyler Higbee is the team's second option in the passing attack. The veteran tight end is tied for the 18th-highest Target Share (25.7) and is averaging 6.5 receptions for 61.0 receiving yards per game. Higbee has a challenging matchup, but his integral role in LA's passing game makes him a rock-solid selection. He's projected as the TE4 at DK and FD, with the TE4V at the former and TE1V at the latter.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
