Congratulations on your 2022 season. If you’re in a redraft league, it’s time to decompress, breathe and enjoy some playoff baseball without any implications. If you’re in a dynasty league, though, your offseason is likely a little bit shorter – with some dynasty leagues opening up trading the day after the season.
Dynasty truly is – for better and worse – an around-the-clock hobby for fantasy managers, as the offseason is used to build up your team for the next run. A great way to do that is to highlight players you can look to acquire for cheap and others who may be best suited to flip if you think they overperformed.
Below is some dynasty buys and sells that you should consider making, and they range from buying and selling low to buying and selling high. Context matters here.
Players to Buy and Sell in Dynasty Leagues
Buy – Dustin May (SP – LAD)
We were excited to see May return after missing the season with Tommy John surgery, but when he returned, he struggled mightily. In six starts that covered 30 innings, May had a 4.50 ERA, 4.38 FIP and 4.21 xFIP with his K% dipping to 22.8.
Not great, Bob.
It does allow a buying opportunity from those who are discouraged however. Over five starts in 2021, May saw his K% climb to 37.6 thanks to his curveball being responsible for 16 of his 35 strikeouts. Hitters saw 42 curves in 2021 and managed just a 0.43 xBA against the pitch. In his brief 2022 season, it served as his best pitch once again, producing a 47.6 Whiff% and a .175 xBA.
May has ace-like potential and should come at a decent discount thanks to his most recent stats.
Sell – Tony Gonsolin (SP – LAD)
I think I’m on an island with this one, but I find it hard to trust a pitcher who averaged 5.1 innings per start in his age-28 season and strikes out batters at a mere 23.9 percent clip. What’s more, among pitchers with at least 130 innings, Gonsolin’s .207 BABIP was by far the lowest in the league. The next closest was Cristian Javier at .228.
Gonsolin is a fine pitcher, but he’s also easy to fade for 2023 and beyond.
Buy – Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT)
Hayes does so many things well, that when you look at his Statcast chart, you’d think he was an All-Star player. He has elite defense, a solid plate approach, elite-level exit velocity and HardHit% but no power.
Like, none.
Over three seasons (1,051 plate appearances), Hayes has 18 home runs. That’s wild for a player with a 47.2 HardHit% and 90.9 Exit Velocity over that same stretch.
But the issue is that he doesn’t elevate the ball. The HardHit% is great, but if you couple that with a 4.4 Launch Angle, you aren’t going to get the Barrels you need to be productive.
For reference, the average Launch Angle across the league is 12.1 percent. If Hayes could even elevate it to 7 or 8 percent, we could see a dramatic shift. In 2022, Nathaniel Lowe had a Launch Angle of 8.2 with an average Exit Velocity of 90.2. That mark climbed from 5 in 2021, and the change in it – while holding true with his HardHit% and Exit Velocity – was going from 18 home runs to 27 this year.
I believe in Hayes being able to adjust to unlock the power in his profile, but time is running out for him to be more than a defensive specialist.
Sell – Tampa Bay Pitchers
Are we painting with too broad of brushes here? Maybe, but there are some serious injuries happening within Tampa Bay’s pitching ranks.
We just saw Nick Anderson and Tyler Glasnow return to the mound after arm injuries. Now, Shane Baz is out with Tommy John. That adds to Shane McClanahan who narrowly avoided catastrophic injury in August. We can keep going with Brendan McKay, Andrew Kittredge, Colin Poche, etc.
I’m not avoiding them all of course, but we are beginning to see a pattern here. If that’s the tiebreaker for me, so be it.
Buy – Wander Franco (SS – TBR)
Many were out on Franco heading into this season, and it didn’t really make sense. He didn’t light the world on fire in his rookie year, so many gave him the “better real life than in fantasy” tag that he didn’t deserve. His 2022 is going to give those people the confirmation that they think they deserve.
But do they?
Franco was limited to 83 games due to injuries, giving him 153 games over his big-league career. It’s close enough to a full-season sample, so let’s see what his line is — .282/.337/.439, 13 HR, 99 R, 74 RBI and 10 SB.
So far, better real life than fantasy with those numbers, as 13 home runs does absolutely nothing for you. What Franco does possess is elite plate coverage (10.7 career K%) and elite contact skills. His 94.2 Zone Contact percentage was fifth in the league this past year, trailing only Luis Arraez, Miguel Rojas, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Steven Kwan.
On one hand, that’s great company. On the other, it’s company which Franco keeps that features almost zero power profile. This is where it comes back to trusting the scouting reports. Franco is still just 21 years old, and he is a 55/55 Raw Power and 45/60 Game Power guy.
The power will come. The speed will come. A full healthy season of Franco next year could easily give him 20/15 numbers with a .290 average at age 22.
If there’s a frustrated Franco manager who is seeing the other youths pass him by, look to capitalize.
Sell – Cardinals Pitchers
I like Jordan Montgomery, but that’s about it here. One of the easiest calls for me in 2023 will be to fade the St. Louis pitching staff.
Adam Wainwright is 41 and hasn’t announced if he’s playing next year. Miles Mikolas was fantastic this year, but has a profile that forces him to walk a thin line each start. With little room for error, he’s hard to trust season to season in fear that he goes all Kyle Hendricks on us.
Jose Quintana parlayed a great season with the Pirates into a trade to the Cardinals with which he continued to be a solid pitcher. That’s assuming the 2022 version we saw is the real version and not the version that was one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the previous three years. Lastly, there’s Jack Flaherty, who has an elite profile but struggles with command, control and health.
Of course, I’m fine having all of them, but at their expected ADP and based on what they did this year, I’d be looking to move any and all of them that I can during my offseason.
Quick Hitters
Buy – Andrew Vaughn (DH – CHW)
It sounds like Jose Abreu won’t be in Chicago next year, and without Tony La Russa in town to force him to play the outfield, Vaughn should settle in nicely at first base.
Sell – Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
This is where sell-high comes into play. You aren’t moving him for anything but a king’s ransom, but we aren’t playing with 2022 numbers anymore. Regression will happen.
Buy – Luis Robert (OF – CHW)
OK, so he didn’t have the MVP-caliber season that I hoped, but Robert will have a full offseason to get healthy.
Sell – Pitching Prospects
I love Ricky Tiedemann, but we’ve seen how likely it is that these prospects break down before ever reaching the majors.
Buy – Baltimore Pitchers
I hate the changes that Baltimore made to its ballpark, but there’s no arguing with how it played. As long as it stays that way, you can get Baltimore arms for the cheap.
Sell – Joey Gallo (OF – LAD)
Is there anyone who believes in Gallo anymore? If they do, they’ll likely think that he has one final chance to bounce back next year when the shifting rules are changed. Take whatever you can get for him.
Buy – Austin Wells (C – NYY)
You’re going to have to apply a Yankees’ tax to Wells, but if you’re looking for the next Daulton Varsho where a catcher-eligible player can be productive and play in the field, Wells is your guy for 2023.
Sell – Riley Greene (OF – DET)
It’s scary to write him off – and I’m not – as a former No. 1 prospect, but his game always lacked something when it comes to fantasy. His ceiling, at least to me, feels like it’s a similar skill set that we can see from other players who will come at a lower cost.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
