Max Homa and Mackenzie Hughes are off to a hot start to begin the 2023 PGA Tour season. Each player has won outright, with Homa finishing -16-under-par at Fortinet, while Hughes outlasted Sepp Straka in a two-hole playoff at Sanderson Farms last week. It’s exciting to see such close finishes right out of the gate!
Unfortunately, my recommendations did not fare well at Sanderson Farms. Scott Stallings finished T14, while Sam Burns and Davis Riley wound up dropping outside the top 25 with T29 finishes. The other three missed the cut, so it was a bit of a brutal start to the 2023 PGA DFS season. It’s been a long week of preparing and analyzing the slate heading into Thursday’s opening round at the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Last year, Sungjae Im dominated the field, saving his best outing for the final round, delivering a nine-under-par performance to coast into first place at TPC Summerlin. Im returns as one of the top betting favorites alongside Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa, all of whom competed in the PGA Tour Championship during the final leg of the FedExCup playoffs back in August.
This field is more loaded than the one at Sanderson Farms. Let’s jump into which six players have the highest floor and the potential to deliver an abundance of points in your DFS lineups at TPC Summerlin this weekend.
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Previous Winners
- 2022 – Sungjae Im (-24)
- 2021 – Martin Laird (-23)
- 2020 – Kevin Na (-23)
- 2019 – Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
- 2018 – Patrick Cantlay (-9)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Greens in Regulation percentage
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Course Overview
TPC Summerlin is not the most challenging course players will compete on during the 2023 PGA Tour circuit. It’s a par 71 that stretches to 7,255 yards, making it one of the shorter courses to navigate. There is only one par 5 on the front-nine, but two opportunities to improve scorecards with a couple of par 5s on the back-nine. Four par 3s are evenly distributed, while TPC Summerlin ends with a variety pack, ordering par 5, par 3, and par 4. The course starts with four consecutive par 4s and three consecutive par 4s to open up the back-nine.
Bentgrass greens and Bermudagrass rough comprise the surfaces at TPC Summerlin. It was replaced with newer grass this offseason but the Vegas heat dried up the surfaces, which means the greens will run slower than normal. Typically with dry conditions, putting velocity increases, but the Bentgrass greens measure roughly 11 feet on the Stimpmeter, compared to the 12 feet typically encountered by players. It’s going to be a hot weekend, so fatigue may play a factor at times. The water hazards don’t start until the back nine, where holes 12, 16, 17, and 18 create additional challenges on top of the dry fescue and numerous sand traps flanking the fairways and greens.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Aaron Wise ($9,900)
Golf is filling up with young talent and Aaron Wise is a piece of this youthful takeover in the sport. The 26-year-old will make his 2023 debut at TPC Summerlin, where he finished T8 (-17) in 2022. Wise is a high-floor insurance policy in DFS, as he only missed five cuts last season and recorded 11 finishes inside of the top 25. He is phenomenal with his irons, ranking 21st in total strokes gained, while converting a bristling 69 percent of his greens in regulation. His style suits this course. Plug Wise in at a good value and watch the points pile up.
Tom Kim ($9,700)
Speaking of young talent, Tom Kim burst onto the scene late last year to make a remarkable run into the FedExCup playoffs. The 20-year-old Korean missed only one cut, won outright at Wyndham, and ultimately finished 35th in the FedExCup playoffs, advancing to the second round of the tournament. It will be Kim’s first time competing at TPC Summerlin but his irons and putter are as dialed in as anyone else. You’re getting a high-floor player with the potential to pop and surge into the top ten on the leaderboard once Sunday concludes.
Taylor Pendrith ($8,600)
Taylor Pendrith cut Fortinet but a 77 on Sunday tanked his finish to T67. The 31-year-old Canadian managed a T47 finish at TPC Summerlin a year ago, opening with six-under-par. Pendrith is familiar with the course and ranked tenth in GIR percentage last season. His putter was a bit erratic, so he will need to lean on his ability to gain strokes off the tee and tee-to-green to stay ahead of schedule. A powerful driver also helped Pendrith achieve a 23 percent par breaker rate, meaning he can deliver birdies fairly often. He’s a discount based on a lackluster performance at Fortinet to open the season, so take advantage and plug Pendrith into lineups as a competent salary-saver.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Sungjae Im ($11,800)
The reigning champion, Sungjae Im, had an incredible finish to his 2022 campaign. Im wound up finishing second in the FedExCup playoffs thanks to incredible iron play and a strong putter. He will make his debut at a course he dominates, which is always comforting. Plus, Im posted finishes of T2, T2, 12th, T15, and T2 to end last season, which was only a couple of months ago. Time off should benefit one of the Tour’s most seasoned young players, as Im is famously known for competing in every event possible. There may be some early rust, but Im went -17-under-par at TPC Summerlin in the opening and closing rounds last year, so he’s worth the price of admission in DFS lineups.
Adam Hadwin ($10,500)
Another Canadian veteran that is enticing on this slate is 34-year-old Adam Hadwin. He managed a T6 finish at TPC Summerlin in 2022 and a T34 finish in 2021. Hadwin wound up with a T45 finish in his 2023 PGA debut at Sanderson Farms a week ago, excelling in the middle rounds but failing to stay under par on Thursday and Sunday. Hadwin is best when he’s gaining strokes tee-to-green and around the green, utilizing a soft touch. He’s also a quality player when it comes to converting greens in regulation, ranking 44th at 63.7 percent in 2022.
J.T. Poston ($9,700)
J.T. Poston had a fantastic season in 2022, finishing 15th in the FedExCup standings, including an outright win and three finishes inside of the top three. Poston is a volatile player, who missed quite a few cuts (15) last season, which also manifests in his track record at TPC Summerlin. Poston missed the cut here last season, finished T27 in 2021, and had his best outing in Vegas back in 2017, winding up T4 with a six-under-par finish in his final round. He looked less than great at Sanderson Farms last weekend, failing to make the cut, but Poston possessed the 41st ranked putter in strokes gained last year while exercising strong play with his irons. If Poston can advance past the cut, he will utilize his final round scoring average of 68.53 to ascend the leaderboard. He’s a high-risk, high-reward player in DFS lineups this weekend.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.