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NFL Week 8 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

NFL Week 8 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2022)

Welcome to Week 8 of the DFS season. Last week, this value article series correctly hit on six of the eight players mentioned including the QB6 and QB9, the RB1 and RB3, and the TE6 and TE13.

This week, we are back at it with only two teams on bye and a main slate that has plenty of scoring to be had and some good matchups to target.

Let’s get into it.

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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer– which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Andy Dalton (QB – NO) $5500 vs. LV

For those who have been following along with last week’s article, we’ve identified a DFS cheat code. Play the quarterback that has the positional advantage of facing the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have generously allowed a top-ten fantasy finish to every quarterback they’ve faced. Three of which were top-five or better. This list includes Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and most recently, Davis Mills.

While so many are talking about Dalton’s three interceptions last week, a polite reminder that he also threw four touchdowns and 361 yards. He would finish the day with 32.54 DK points.

Being named the starter over a reportedly healthy Jameis Winston could be a short-leash type of situation, but does not seem likely in this cupcake matchup.

Dalton is firmly in the GPP conversation this week as a low-cost upside play.

FanDuel

P.J. Walker (QB – CAR) $6400 vs. ATL

This matchup is exploitable and will be talked about again a little further down. Walker played surprisingly competent football last week, completing 72% of his passes for 177 yards and two touchdowns en route to an upset over the Buccaneers. He finished with 15.08 FD points and a QB14 finish for the week. He played well enough that he was named the starter for this week, despite Baker Mayfield practicing through the week and even taking some first-team reps.

This week, the Panthers invade Atlanta to face a beatable Falcons defense that is currently allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. While third-most overall is already enticing, what if I told you that they are allowing the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks? No? Still not interested? Fine. How about the fact that they have given up two or more touchdown passes in five of seven games?

As long as DFS managers do not mind a little dumpster diving, the salary is fine, the rostered percentage will be low, and the upside is hidden in plain sight. This is not a recommended cash game play and due to the volatility of the pick is probably best utilized in multi-lineup entries. Walker/D.J. Moore ($6200) or Walker/D’Onta Foreman ($6400) stacks are certainly in play as risk vs. reward situations with a definite ceiling.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) $6100 vs. CHI

At the time of this writing, Ezekiel Elliot has missed multiple practices and could miss this game. The immediate intrigue is the workload that will be in store for Tony Pollard. Now, let’s ice that cake.

The Bears have been a sieve for opposing run games. They are currently allowing the sixth-most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. His explosive running ability paired with his acumen as a pass catcher keeps him from being affected as much by the game script as some other running backs. If the Cowboys are leading, he runs more. If they are trailing, he sees more targets.

Facing a team that is allowing 112 rushing yards and 33.9 passing yards on a per-contest basis puts Pollard in a position to outperform the salary.

If Zeke is declared out (currently listed as doubtful), this will be far more of a chalky pick, so he is more suited to cash lineups but can be sprinkled in at cost for a few tournaments as well.

FanDuel

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) $6800 vs. DET

Raheem Mostert signing with the Dolphins felt like an afterthought kind of move. However, he has easily led the team in carries and honestly, has been fun to watch. The trepidation of starting Mostert, given his injury history, has made him difficult to trust. That being said, he is currently the RB26 on the season, ahead of names like James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Tony Pollard. He would honestly be higher up the board if he had played with the recent volume all season. He has finished with double-digit DK points in three of his last four contests and draws an enticing matchup this week against the nearly defenseless Detroit Lions.

The Lions are allowing the second-most fantasy production to running backs. Through seven weeks, they’re giving up 129.8 rushing yards and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per contest. Over the last five games, Mostert has handled 14 or more carries in all but one.

With the explosive potential of the Dolphins’ offense, expect them to lean on the run game more once a lead is established. Mostert may feel difficult to put into lineups, but the volume has been there and the matchup is fantastic. He represents a solid floor with a good upside in tournaments.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) $5300 vs. ATL

The phrase “addition by subtraction” does not exist in too many places outside of fantasy football. That makes it no less accurate in the case of D.J. Moore. Some may see the name and think we are chasing last week’s points; which is partially true but certainly not the entirety of the picture.

To break it down simply, Christian McCaffrey (6.42 targets per game) and Robbie Anderson (5.4 targets per game) are both gone. This is the subtraction portion of the exercise. This leaves Terrace Marshall Jr. (eight targets…on the season) and Shi Smith (20 targets on the season) as the other two starting receivers in three-wide sets. In short, there is not much reliability in this receiving core, aside from D.J. Moore.

P.J. Walker played fairly well last week and bestowed a 45% target share on Moore’s capable shoulders. More finished with 10 targets, seven receptions for 69 yards, and a score for his best fantasy PPR production of the season. The Falcons’ defense is the best matchup for wide receivers, allowing 1.6 touchdowns and 207.9 receiving yards on average per game.

The reality is that players may still shy away from running Moore out in too many contests. Between the slight uptick in targets and the best matchup for the position, he is a full go this week and can be used in both cash and tournament contests.

FanDuel

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) $6700 vs. LAR

Earlier this week, I talked about Brandon Aiyuk on the FantasyPros podcast. At that time, I was already a little higher than ECR on him for this week. Since then, Deebo Samuel has been ruled out. Christian McCaffrey will most likely be more of a focal point of the offensive scheme and there is still George Kittle for the Rams’ defense to account for.

Over the last two weeks, Aiyuk has had 22 targets, 15 receptions, 165 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. This week, he draws a Rams defense that is currently allowing the 11th-most fantasy points and surrendering 159.3 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdowns per contest to wideouts.

Aiyuk typically plays perimeter and will be facing a combination of Jalen Ramsey (63% catch rate) and Derion Kendrick (61% catch rate) for his routes. Expect another healthy target share in a game that could put up a few more points than Vegas is currently implying.

Aiyuk is volume play at a moderate salary that could string together another solid performance this week.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN) $3500 vs. ARI

Irv Smith Jr. is one of the best punt plays at the position this week and has the bonus of being matched up against a defense that basically ignores tight ends. The Cardinals co-lead the league in total touchdowns (six) surrendered to the position and are currently allowing 7.3 receptions for 77 yards per contest.

While Smith has yet to have a truly big game, he is averaging 4.8 targets per game and has one fantasy finish inside the positional top five. Let’s face it, when selecting a tight end, it’s either pay up or target the right matchup and identify volume, and hope for the score. Irv Smith checks a lot of those boxes for this week and should be utilized in tournaments as opposed to cash games.

FanDuel

Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) $5200 vs. LV

Lower-cost matchup-based tight ends is a theme this week. For those who want typically spend up, Kelce and Andrews are off of this week’s main slate. Leaving George Kittle and Taysom Hill at the top of the tight end salary mountain. This does not feel like a great week to pay up at the position, although George Kittle has some appeal with Deebo Samuel out. Still, chasing value and combing through matchups puts Juwan Johnson in the conversation.

The first thing to note is that Johnson did show up on the injury report with a hamstring issue. It is worth noting he logged two limited practices and is officially listed as questionable for this week’s matchup against the Raiders. Players should monitor his status prior to roster consideration this week.

Assuming health, it is a great matchup for Johnson who has had five or more targets in four of seven games this season and came down with two scores last week. The Raiders have allowed 51.5 receiving yards on average per game and surrendered six touchdowns to the position.

If Johnson doesn’t suit up, Taysom Hill is in consideration with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry already being ruled out. However, Hill comes with plenty of risk and a much higher salary at $6500.

John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.

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