Big-time injury week, so no time to waste. Don’t forget to hit us with a follow on Instagram (@sportsmedanalytics, @fantasypros) and Twitter (@SportMDAnalysis, @FantasyPros) to stay all the way up to date.
Dak is back. His grip strength is very likely less than 100%, so there’s a slight increase in his fumble risk under pressure. Otherwise, we’re probably going to see a nearly full-strength performance.
Severe high ankle sprains average 3-4 weeks for QBs, and Jones is now at 4. It’s very realistic for him to play, but expect mild mobility limitations for the first 2 weeks back.
Very likely to play despite a mild knee injury. Based on the timeline of his return to practice, SportsMedAnalytics projects minimal effect on performance.
Dobbins will now have surgery to clean up a meniscus or cartilage issue. This isn’t terribly uncommon after the major multi-ligament injury he had last year. Our data bodes well for his short-term recovery. Running backs return to the field at an average of five weeks; by the sixth week, they’re generally back to pre-injury explosiveness. Young RBs who were highly drafted do tend to see slow ramps back up in touches, so don’t be surprised if the Ravens take as many as 4 games before giving Dobbins a full workload. However, this is bad news for the long-term, as second surgeries for these lead to shorter careers and more durability issues over subsequent years. We certainly hope not, but this could be a brewing Todd Gurley-type of situation.
TBD, but we’d lean towards Waddle playing. WRs who practice all week (even in a limited capacity) with shoulder sprains/strains don’t tend to see much impact on their performance unless they re-aggravate the injury in-game.
True game-time decision. We’d lean toward him taking the field on a limited snap count. Either way, we’d avoid starting Allen in any format because a significant short-term (~20%) performance dip is expected. Allen will also carry elevated re-injury risk for the next four weeks.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
Don’t be surprised if Thomas returns to practice next week. Turf toe averages 3-4 weeks for WRs, and he’s now approaching the upper end of that timeline. Unfortunately, there does tend to be a performance drop-off for another 3-4 weeks after WRs return. Given his injury history, we’d lean toward Thomas missing one more game.
He’s lucky to avoid surgery, but this injury pattern still averages five to six weeks out. Pre-injury performance does return in-season for WRs, but it takes 8 weeks for the majority to hit their 90% threshold.
He’s definitely playing, and he’s now out of the window where mild high ankle sprains would affect his productivity. DFS players considering Taylor should be aware that the data on RBs’ first game returning from high ankles usually has their backups seeing a few extra touches.
Fully cleared and ready to play. Concussions don’t cause any performance impact when RBs return, so expect Hines to be at full strength.
CMC has a long injury history, but the good news is that there’s no consistent anatomic pattern to his injuries. They aren’t tied to lingering durability risk in our data. Additionally, catching passes should help him stay healthy because receptions pose lower injury rates per play than carries. No RB is super safe (even the most durable average of two games missed per season), but our data doesn’t suggest that CMC is more injury prone than most others.
Mild high ankles average 2-3 weeks for WRs, but the fact that Cobb reported feeling a “pop” suggests this one is more severe. Those average four to six weeks. Even if he tries to hustle back, it would be surprising if we see him before three weeks out.
Watson re-aggravated a hamstring injury, which does not bode well for his season. These tend to be on the severe side (3-5 weeks), with lingering performance impact even after the return. For reference, this is why Keenan Allen has been out so long.
He just cleared the concussion protocol; no noticeable performance impact is expected when he returns this week.
Higgins is one of our strongest buy-low recommendations right now. This nagging ankle definitely affected his performance last week, but WRs with these injuries tend to recover quickly. Expect ~90% of the typical Higgins in Week 7 and 100% by Week 8.
Swift’s Week 7 status is TBD, but we’d lean toward him playing. AC joint sprains (shoulder) and ankle sprains don’t generally impact RB per-play production 3 weeks out, but our data suggests more of an RB-by-committee approach than normal in his first game back.
Wide receivers don’t tend to see any performance impact four weeks removed from high ankle sprains. Expect a strong comeback from St. Brown.
Truly a game-time decision, but we’d lean towards Bateman playing. Mid-foot sprains average 2-3 weeks for WRs, and he’s now at week 3. A mild (~10%) performance dip is expected in the first game back, so we’d avoid him for DFS either way.
A true game-time decision, but we’re avoiding Wilson in all formats regardless. His lat strain is still likely affecting his deep ball, which is probably a big part of why he finished 5 for 18 after starting 10 for 10 in Week 6. Even though most QBs can play through hamstring strains, limited mobility + limited deep ball = hard pass for us.
Editor’s Note: Wilson has been ruled out.
Severe high ankle sprains average 4-6 weeks for WRs, and Chark is just now approaching the 4th. Because this ankle had surgery just a year ago, we’d expect him to miss ~2 more games before returning. Don’t let the news of him being in a boot scare you away. NFL players have a low threshold to use anything that can take the stress off of the injured body part because it speeds up healing.
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