Wow, Week 7 already. This season is hauling like Travis Etienne after a couple of broken tackles. This week removes a plethora of high-value DFS players due to the following teams being on bye: Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles.
With all the firepower missing from the main slate, it makes looking for the value plays even more important. And that is exactly what we will look at in this week’s value article.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Wait…don’t scroll past this one. There is actually some good intel here; stick around for a few moments. Let’s get right to it, the Raiders are allowing a fairly significant bump to opposing quarterbacks this season. Simply put, they’re allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
In week one, Justin Herbert scored 23.26 points against them. His season average is 17.72. In week two, Kyler Murray scored 26.9 fantasy points, which was the most he has put up in a game this season. In Week 3, Ryan Tannehill dropped 19.7 fantasy points on their mantle against the Raiders, his highest of the season. Hopefully, you’re seeing a trend here. In week four, Russell Wilson hung 27.48 points on their doorstep, also his highest of the season. And lastly, in week five, Patrick Mahomes spanked them for over 30 points, notching his best performance of the season. The trend is there, start quarterbacks against the Raiders.
For those looking to punt the position and allocate funds to other skill positions, the analytics point to Davis Mills, who is averaging 33.6 passing attempts per game. Mills is a tournament play with an exploitable price that comes with the risk of…well…starting Davis Mills.
The surgeon general’s warning is that starting Davis Mills in cash games could lead to loss of entry fees, undeniable rage, an unrealistic viewpoint of Houston, Texas, and fertility complications in some rare cases. User discretion is advised.
FanDuel
I cannot promise a write-up about Jimmy Garoppolo that does not mention his handsomeness, but I am willing to try. While his 15.3 FD points per game are not super impressive, it does not paint the entire picture. After a tumultuous off-season rife with rumors and trade speculations, not to mention recovery from shoulder surgery, Jimmy G. did not have the luxury of his typical practice reps. Now, six games in, he is starting to show the solid-floor type of safe football for which he is known. Over the last two games, he is averaging 18.4 points, 274.5 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns per game.
The Kansas City defense currently allows the second-most fantasy points to the position, including two or more passing touchdowns per contest. Their offense remains one of the best in football, so expect them to put points on the board, even against a stout 49ers defense.
Jimmy G. will have to pass in this one and has yards-after-the-catch weapons across the offense, including the newly acquired Christian McCaffrey, that may not even be a factor this week. Jimmy G. is a value price based on game script and matchup and should be in tournament lineups.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Getting right to the point, the Chargers depleted defense has been susceptible to the run. Over the course of six weeks, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and three 100-plus rushing yard games to running backs. They have also allowed the following running backs to score either on the ground or through the air:
Meanwhile, since assuming a proper amount of carries, Walker has been nothing short of impressive. He handled 21 carries for 97 yards and a score in his first full game as the starter. He finished the week as the RB8 overall.
The salary is great, the matchup is great, and the usage will be great. The only downfall is he will most likely be closer to a chalk pick this week. Cash games, lock him in. In GPPs, sprinkle in moderation.
FanDuel
Yes, this one is closer to the top of the salary food chain. However, Josh Jacobs is still undervalued based on his usage this season. Through five games, where others have played six, he is the RB7 in .5 PPR scoring and has the ninth-most carries (91), the third-most rushing yards (490), 18 targets, and three rushing scores. His workload has been elite this season.
The Texans have been generous in allowing the most fantasy points to running backs, including five rushing scores and one through the air to the position.
Expect the Raiders to play with a lead at some point in this game, tidying the script for Jacobs to get some run in clock management mode. Yes, the salary is a little pricier than what is typically featured in this article, but the potential return is too juicy to ignore.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
The rookie speedster is getting increasingly acclimated to the NFL and his quarterback. While still technically playing behind Parris Campbell (another solid value at $3,900), Pierce is starting to heat up.
Since Week 3, he is averaging 7.3 targets and 70 yards per game, with one score sprinkled in. He has been over double-digit points in each of his last three games, and with his speed, there is meat left on the bone.
The Titans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Make no mistake, Michael Pittman Jr. is going to get his. But take a look at some of the players that have fared well against this defense. Mack Hollins, in Week 3, finished with a line of 8/158/1. In Week 4, Pierce went four for 80 yards, and in Week 5, Dyami Brown went 2/105/2 against them. They are currently defending most team alpha receivers better than the secondary options.
Expect Pierce to continue to build on his success, and this matchup looks good for his first big breakout game. He should be sprinkled in some GPP lineups.
FanDuel
It felt like Amari Cooper had been somewhat written 0ff entering the draft season. Acquired for pennies on the dollar and set to operate with a backup quarterback under center drove his price down. While still capable of disappearing for a game at a time, Cooper has — for the most part — played above expectation.
Heading into Week 7, he is the WR11 in half-point scoring and has four touchdowns already. This week he faces a Ravens defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Furthermore, they have allowed three receivers to go over 150 yards this season.
The Ravens will come out swinging after a couple of disappointing losses. Jacoby Brissett and Co. may need to favor the aerial attack more heavily to try and keep this one close. Expect Cooper and Njoku to lead the charge, and both be strong plays for cash games this weekend.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
This pick feels like a layup. Everything is lining up so well for Everett to have a top-eight type of game in the position.
At the time of this writing, Keenan Allen is truly questionable to play. Donald Parham Jr., Josh Palmer, and Joshua Kelley have all already been ruled out, narrowing the target tree significantly. Everett is already fifth-most among tight ends in targets, eighth in yards, and has a pair of touchdowns through six weeks of play.
The Seahawks are oblivious to the position. They’re currently allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Four tight ends have had 50-plus receiving yards, and they’ve surrendered a total of seven touchdowns to the position.
Between the lack of viable pass catchers, a cake matchup, and a bargain salary, he should be in lineups and could be used in both cash and GPP contests.
FanDuel
Hayden Hurst strolls into week seven, averaging 5.16 targets per game as an ancillary weapon in the Bengals’ offense. He has finished with double-digit FD points in two of the last three contests and has two touchdowns on the season.
This week he faces a Falcons defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points and 68.5 receiving yards to the position this season.
Hurst is not the primary read in this offense, so this should be treated as a GPP play and best utilized in multi-lineup contests. As with most tight ends, we are hoping for the touchdown, and he’s a middling bet to come down with one this weekend.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
