In this piece are my personal NFL Week 6 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player … unless I missed one here or there. It happens.
This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.
- Thursday: Do first pass of player projections in the afternoon and publish.
- Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.
After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections, check out our official Week 6 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.
While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.
- My Week 6 Favorites
- My Week 6 Player Rankings
- Our Week 6 Expert Consensus Rankings
- Our Start/Sit Tool
NFL Week 6 Projections vs. Rankings
A note on how these projections differ from my rankings: I create my rankings and projections via two different processes.
My rankings I tend to do by hand. I’ve found over the years that I do best with rankings when I have more of an intuitive process that is informed by data vs. an outright numbers-driven process. I’m currently No. 9 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year, so the process is working so far.
My projections I do in a spreadsheet via a process that is almost entirely automated and based on data and formulae.
And, yes, I said “formulae.” Sometimes ya gotta class up the joint, know what I’m sayin’?
Because of the two different processes, I’m sure that there are instances where my rankings and projections don’t perfectly match. I’m fine with that.
With my projections, I’m trying to forecast the median. I want to predict the line that separates the upper and lower 50%. I’m not thinking about upside and downside. I’m thinking only about what is likeliest to happen.
With my rankings, I actually do take upside and downside into account — because that matters when you’re making start/sit decisions. So my rankings aren’t just about what I think is likeliest to happen: They’re also about range of outcomes and potential expected value.
At least that’s what I’m thinking of when I create them.
NFL Week 6 Player Projections
My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default FantasyPros scoring settings, which are half PPR. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables for the sake of space.
Following my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.
NFL Week 6 QB Projections
NFL Week 6 QB Notes
Tom Brady (TB): I might be low on Brady. With the return of WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and LT Donovan Smith in Week 4, Brady has been on fire over his past two games with 736 yards and four touchdowns to zero receptions on 74-of-104 passing. Brady is +4000 to win MVP (per our BettingPros odds page) - and you better believe I just bet on him.
I've just placed a bet on Tom Brady to win MVP at 40-1.
- He's back: 736 yards, 104 pass attempts w/ WRs Mike Evans & Chris Godwin over past 2 games.
- He'll have a narrative edge over almost any other player.
- Bucs are 3-2 w/ easiest remaining schedule.
- NFC is wide open.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 12, 2022
Geno Smith (SEA): Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (75.2%), No. 2 in adjusted yards per attempt (8.9) and No. 3 in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (0.189, per RBs Don't Matter). He has 913 yards and seven touchdowns passing to one interception over the past three weeks. I might be too low on him.
Marcus Mariota (ATL): I might be too high on Mariota, who has 139 and 147 yards passing over the past two weeks.
Bailey Zappe (NE): I assume that the third-string rookie will start at least one more week for the Patriots in place of injured starter Mac Jones (ankle).
NFL Week 6 RB Projections
NFL Week 6 RB Notes
Austin Ekeler (LAC): I wasn't expecting Ekeler to be my No. 1 back by projections -- I have Saquon Barkley at No. 1 in my rankings -- but Ekeler went off in Weeks 4-5 (league-high 32.9 fantasy points per game), and for the year he has 527 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): With RB Damien Harris (hamstring) out, Stevenson should have the Patriots backfield all to himself. Last week, Stevenson went off with 175 yards on 25 carries and two targets in Harris' absence. I've moved Stevenson up to No. 5 in my RB rankings, and that still feels low.
Aaron Jones (GB): I think I might be too low on Jones, who is No. 1 in the league with a 58.6% Rush Percentage Over Expected and 0.30 EPA per rush (per Next Gen Stats and the RYOE app). The Packers could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites (-335 at Caesars), which would help Jones juice his numbers.
Eno Benjamin (ARI): I'm projecting Benjamin as if starter James Conner (knee) will be out for Week 6, given that he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
NFL Week 6 WR Projections
NFL Week 6 WR Notes
Cooper Kupp (LAR): I know what my projections say ... but I'm of the opinion that Kupp's yardage projection should almost always start with the number "1" given that he already has four 100-yard games this year.
Marquise Brown (ARI): I think I might be too low on Brown, who is No. 1 at the position in snaps played (360) and routes run (227, per PFF). Since his disappointing Cardinals debut, Brown has 34-374-2 receiving on 49 targets over the past month.
Christian Kirk (JAX): Kirk disappointed last week with just 11 yards on three targets ... and also the week before that with 60 yards on nine targets - but he's still the No. 1 receiver for the team in targets (39), yards receiving (22) and touchdowns (3). Kirk had a dominant 6-78-2 receiving on six targets in Week 2 against the Colts.
I'm betting over 10.5 points for Kirk in the Week 6 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Mike Williams (LAC): I probably like Williams more than his projection suggests. WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) has missed the past four weeks to injury, and in that span Williams has 26-382-2 receiving on 40 targets with either 100 yards or a touchdown in each game. I'm skeptical that Allen will play this week.
Allen Robinson (LAR): I have Robinson projected for 37.8 yards receiving -- and that still feels high.
NFL Week 6 TE Projections
NFL Week 6 TE Notes
Travis Kelce (KC): Kelce is easily my No. 1 tight end this week. Last year, Kelce had 14-153-2 receiving on 19 against the Bills in two games, and the Bills pass defense isn't even close to full strength. In the past, No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (knee, PUP) has sometimes matched up with Kelce, but he won't be active for this game as he continues to work his way back from injury. On top of that, FS Micah Hyde (neck, IR) is out and SS Jordan Poyer (ribs), CB Christian Benford (hand) and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are uncertain after missing Week 5. Kelce could explode in this game.
I talk more about Kelce's matchup in my Week 6 BettingPros projected spreads and best bets piece.
Tyler Higbee (LAR): I love Higbee this week. He's easily No. 2 on the team and No. 1 at the position with 48 targets and 33 receptions, and the Panthers are without SS Jeremy Chinn (hamstring, IR).
Zach Ertz (ARI): Ertz is No. 2 on the Cardinals with 41 targets and 28-229-2 receiving, and in two games against the Seahawks last year he had 15-172-2 receiving on 19 targets. The Seahawks are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (47.7%, per Football Outsiders).
Taysom Hill (NO): Hill leads the Saints with four carries inside the 20-yard line and three carries inside the 10 -- all of which he has converted into touchdowns. He has significant upside that I think isn't captured in this median projection.
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