Welcome to week five, DFS fans!
Last week’s value article identified a few big plays, like Geno Smith and T.J. Hockenson. Hopefully, they were in a few of our reader’s lineups and brought in some money.
This week, we have a new slate and new values to find, so let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Many people may be off of Goff this week, despite the numbers he has put up, simply based on the matchup. So here is some clarity. Through four weeks, the Patriots are allowing an average of 226.7 passing yards per contest and eight passing touchdowns total. They currently allow 21.2 fantasy points per contest to quarterbacks, despite having an interception in three straight games.
Welcome to week five, DFS fans!
Last week’s value article identified a few big plays, like Geno Smith and T.J. Hockenson. Hopefully, they were in a few of our reader’s lineups and brought in some money.
This week, we have a new slate and new values to find, so let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Many people may be off of Goff this week, despite the numbers he has put up, simply based on the matchup. So here is some clarity. Through four weeks, the Patriots are allowing an average of 226.7 passing yards per contest and eight passing touchdowns total. They currently allow 21.2 fantasy points per contest to quarterbacks, despite having an interception in three straight games.
The Lions opened the season against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are currently the third-stingiest opponent for fantasy quarterbacks. The Lions’ offensive line still allowed Goff to produce 16.5 fantasy points. That line has stepped up big for Goff, and the coaching staff is not asking more than what Goff is capable of.
While we cannot spend too much time applauding Goff for last week’s 34.2-point performance, we can point out that it is the second time he threw four touchdown passes in a game, despite missing some of his top weapons.
The Patriots are not an easy matchup, but they aren’t necessarily one to avoid. One could just as easily bet on Goff throwing an interception this game as they could bet on him throwing at least two touchdowns. With a 1-5% roster percentage, Goff maintains top-twelve appeal at a reasonable price tag.
FanDuel
For those with the intestinal fortitude to do so, Carson Wentz was a profitable play at the quarterback positions in Weeks 1 and 2. In those two games, he put up over 300 passing yards in each and threw for seven touchdown passes. The following two weeks, against tougher defenses, were far more disappointing and relegated Wentz to the volatile risk he has become far more known for.
So, here are a few key reasons that he represents a solid value this week at the cost. The Titans’ defense is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Every quarterback they have faced this season has thrown at least two passing touchdowns, and three of the four have thrown for more than 300 yards. Wentz is averaging 43 pass attempts per game. With an expected cleaner pocket than he has had in the last two games, Wentz is set up for another opportunity to outproduce his modest salary in a game with sneaky fantasy production possibilities.
Running Backs
DraftKings
There is enough subterfuge surrounding James Robinson to add to his appeal for this week’s main slate. It is absolutely true that he split more carries last week with Travis Etienne, who has, in all fairness, seen his workload increase. It is also true that Etienne had three more yards than Robinson on the same amount of carries. However, it marked the first time this season that the workload was that evenly split. From a seasonal standpoint, Robinson has out carried Etienne 59 to 34 through the first four weeks. Furthermore, Robinson has 13 red zone carries to Etienne’s five. Inside the five-yard line, it has been all Robinson with four carries and one target. The high-value attempts are important, and Robinson has that role locked down.
The Houston Texans are simply bleeding production to running backs, allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Thus far, they have allowed two backs to rush for more than 150 yards and surrendered six total touchdowns to the position. Expect the Jaguars to be clearly aware of this fact and factor it into their game plan.
With his early-down and goal-line role secure, Robinson is a fantastic value this week, and Etienne ($5,100) is a solid pivot for tournaments.
FanDuel
Real talk: Alvin Kamara has been disappointing for fantasy all season. He has missed two games due to injury and was largely disappointing in the other two. In his two healthy games, he has produced just over six points in each. That ends this week.
The Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and surrendered five total touchdowns to the position while allowing two different backs to clear the 100-yard mark. With Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, both set to miss another game, the offensive scheme will be simplified with Andy Dalton under center. Run the ball, target the short-yardage area of the field, and keep it simple. This suits Kamara, who recently declared himself “ready to roll.”
If the Saints can play with a lead, which they are expected to, then it only opens up more rush attempts for Kamara. The salary isn’t scary, and the matchup is perfect for Kamara to return to being a high-value fantasy running back.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Plain and simple, I love this price for Godwin, who does not carry an injury designation for Sunday’s game. He returned last week and promptly saw 10 targets which he converted into seven receptions for 59 scoreless yards. Meanwhile, Mike Evans is $1,000 more expensive, mainly due to finishing with over 100 yards and two scores last week. Had Godwin come down with a score, that salary gap would be far more narrow.
Savvy DFS players should be aware of this and use it to their advantage.
The Falcons allow the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, allowing two different receivers to score twice in the same game. They have also allowed more yards to slot receivers than the perimeter, which suits Godwin’s typical alignment.
At the cost, Godwin should be in lineups.
FanDuel
This value pick represents both risk and ceiling. Upon the return of Zach Wilson under center, Garrett Wilson saw the fewest fantasy points he has had this season. Garrett suffered slightly with the pass attempts dialed down a little compared to what Joe Flacco was chucking up. However, he was targeted six times, which is encouraging.
Garrett will most likely draw the defensive attention of Kader Kohou, who is by far the more friendly of the defensive matchups for the receivers. Betting on talent puts both Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore ahead of Corey Davis, who performed the best last week in Zach Wilson’s season debut. Wilson did look more composed in the fourth quarter of play last week and settled into a productive rhythm, which again is encouraging.
As stated, there is certainly some risk involved in this pick, but the ceiling is fairly high for the talented rookie. With the risk, it’s worth utilizing this play in multi-lineup contests and hoping he hits one of them.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
After being almost invisible in week one, David Njoku has played closer to what so many expected of him when he was drafted. In the last three weeks, he is averaging 7.3 targets and 64.6 receiving yards per game. He is currently eighth among tight ends in DK points per game (10.7), and per PFF, he is also eighth in yards per route run. Njoku has lined up in the slot on 31.9% of his snaps, more than he has in previous seasons.
The Chargers have been middle of the road against the position, allowing 49.7 receiving yards per game. While they have yet to allow a touchdown to the position, Njoku feels like a sneaky bet to be the first of the season.
In short, Njoku is third in targets (only one behind Donovan Peoples-Jones) and has the second-most receiving yards of the Browns’ pass catchers. The volume has been reliable, and the Browns are the underdog, meaning more potential pass attempts.
FanDuel
Yes, there is a stack in this week’s value article that centers around a favorable game and beatable salaries. Tight end has been mostly gross this season, but a few gems have surfaced, such as last week’s T.J. Hockenson and Gerald Everett selection in this value series.
While we cannot expect Logan Thomas to put up anywhere near what Hockenson did last week, he is in a positive situation to score some points. Jahan Dotson has been ruled out for this contest, and Curtis Samuel missed subsequent practices due to illness. Even if Samuel suits up, Wentz throws 40-plus times a game, meaning there will be targets to go around.
The Titans have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends through four weeks of play. Thomas played a season-high 74% of the snaps last week and averages five targets per game. He did show up on the injury report, so make sure to check his availability before kickoff.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
