Welcome, DFS fans to week four value shots. For accountability purposes, there were some definite misses in last week’s article. However, it is worth noting that the ones that hit, hit well. Of the three that hit well, all were within the top ten of their respective positions and included a top-six and top-three positional finish.
This week there are a few very good prospects for value return purposes and some exploitable matchups.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Dropping Russell Wilson into a DFS lineup might feel a little dangerous right now, and that is understandable. There are some positives that shouldn’t be overlooked, though. Remember, a key mistake in fantasy football is to chase last week’s points. That works on the inverse as well; don’t avoid it because of last week’s lack of points. A good example is Kirk Cousins last week. After a brutal showing in Week 2, he was a recommended value play in last week’s article and turned in a QB10 finish for the week.
Welcome, DFS fans to week four value shots. For accountability purposes, there were some definite misses in last week’s article. However, it is worth noting that the ones that hit, hit well. Of the three that hit well, all were within the top ten of their respective positions and included a top-six and top-three positional finish.
This week there are a few very good prospects for value return purposes and some exploitable matchups.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Dropping Russell Wilson into a DFS lineup might feel a little dangerous right now, and that is understandable. There are some positives that shouldn’t be overlooked, though. Remember, a key mistake in fantasy football is to chase last week’s points. That works on the inverse as well; don’t avoid it because of last week’s lack of points. A good example is Kirk Cousins last week. After a brutal showing in Week 2, he was a recommended value play in last week’s article and turned in a QB10 finish for the week.
We have seen enough of Russell Wilson over the years to know that there is week-winning potential lurking underneath all the..oddness and cringe-worthy commercials. It hasn’t quite clicked through three weeks yet, but a matchup against the Raiders is a nice get-right type of situation when few will be rostering him.
The Raiders allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including five touchdown passes and two rushing touchdowns. With enough firepower and talent, they can also score. In a divisional matchup with both teams wanting a conference win, expect a competitive matchup which means dialing up the passing game.
Wilson comes in with the sixth-highest projected point total on the Cheat Sheet and one of the lower expected roster percentages.
FanDuel
I did not know that the research would lead to dumpster diving at the quarterback position this week, but here we are. This will be short and succinct, so readers do not immediately roll their eyes and move on.
Currently, Geno Smith is averaging more FD fantasy points per game than the following quarterbacks: Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Aaron Rodgers, all of whom are the same salary or more expensive. Here is the thing, of that list, only two could really be expected to have the kind of ceiling that would be worth rostering this week, Wilson and Rodgers.
Smith is averaging 239 passing yards per game and has four touchdowns…against two tough defenses in both the 49ers and the Broncos. This week he draws the Lions, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including five passing touchdowns over the last two weeks.
At $6600, he is worth a flier in multiple-lineup tournament situations and frees up some money to upgrade other skill positions.
Running Backs
DraftKings
If this pick had a taste, it would have a faint flavor of chalk. And that is okay because the numbers support it. With D’Andre Swift sidelined for at least this game, Williams now gets more than the hefty goal-line usage he was seeing before Swift’s injury. Even with a healthy Swift, Williams handled nearly 89% of the Lions’ carries inside the ten-yard line. Now, he will also get plenty of work between the 20s as well.
The Seahawks allow the tenth-most fantasy points to running backs and an average of 117.3 rushing yards per game. They have also been generous to pass-catching backs, allowing the sixth-most receptions to the position.
While somewhat chalky, Williams is primed for positive volume with both Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown out this week to free up both rushing work and a healthy target share.
FanDuel
This is all about cost. On FanDuel, JT is cheaper than Khalil Herbert, Jamaal Williams, Cordarrelle Patterson, James Robinson, and D’Andre Swift, who isn’t playing. Value does not always mean the cheapest but the best return for the investment. Taylor’s salary has gone down $700 over the last week despite facing a defense that can be run on.
Taylor is averaging just over 20 rushing attempts per game. In Week 1, Saquon Barkley torched the Titans for 164 rushing yards on 18 carries. The volume will be there, and the cost is great, do not overcomplicate this play at the discount.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Honestly, at the $5800 salary, Smith will be in a ton of my lineups. It almost feels like cheating.
Entering Week 4, he accounts for a 29% target share in the explosive Eagles offense. With so much defensive attention on teammate A.J. Brown, it has left Smith drawing lesser corners despite possessing a dangerous skill set of his own. This has led to 249 receiving yards and one score over the last two weeks.
The Jaguars, despite looking much improved on offense, are still vulnerable to a solid passing offense. They are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to receivers and have already surrendered five touchdowns to the position. It’s not just how much they’ve allowed as who they’ve allowed it to. In last week’s game against the Chargers, it was Josh Palmer who led the Chargers receivers in yards. The week prior, Ashton Dulin led the Colts receivers. In week one, it was rookie Jahan Dotson who scored twice against them. The Jaguars are bleeding production to the team’s number-two receivers. Doubtful that the trend stops at this matchup. Smith is a safe-floor, high-ceiling option at under $6000 and can be used in both cash games and tournaments.
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson has been the talk of the Jets over the last couple of weeks as he has established himself as a talented rookie with room to grow. Despite the rightful emergence of a talented wide receiver, Elijah Moore boasts a 95% route participation, including a 91.8% third-down snap share, which is tied with Tyler Conklin for the team lead. He also participates in 80% of all red zone snaps, which is second-most on the team.
The Steelers have allowed three receivers to top the 100-yard receiving mark this season and four touchdowns to the position.
Having some rapport already established with Zach Wilson, who is starting Sunday, this could be exactly what Moore needs to kickstart some meaningful production. He averaged seven targets and 76.8 receiving yards last season.
This is far from a slam-dunk pick, but the upside exists. Moore should be treated as a tournament selection.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Hockenson strolls into week four with a 17% target share. That does not account for the Lions missing both Swift and St. Brown this week. Thus far, Hockenson is TE12 on the season and has route participation of just over 70% through three games while playing on 85% of all offensive snaps. Hockenson has also played on 97.8% of third down snaps and 90.3% of all red zone snaps. Not only is he out there, but he is participating in the high-value snaps that lead to fantasy goodness.
The matchup is favorable. Against tight ends, the Legion of Fizzle allows the third-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. The only knock is that they have yet to allow a touchdown to the position. Considering the addition by subtraction of the Lions’ offense, Hockenson could easily be the first tight end to hit pay dirt this weekend and should be in lineups as a moderate-cost with upside play.
FanDuel
There are some deceptive stats about the matchup. Through three weeks, the Texans are credited with allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. On the surface, this sounds like a bad matchup. In reality, the tight ends they’ve faced have been Mo Alie Cox, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Cole Kmet, for a total of seven targets between them.
Gerald Everett is averaging 6.6 targets per game. Justin Herbert distributes the ball well and will be missing Keenan Allen again this week, opening the door for more targets for both Josh Palmer and Everett.
At the price, this is more of an expected targets kind of play with the hopes for a score. Everett has a 72.4% snap share in red zone situations this season.
This would also represent more a tournament value play as it remains hinged on target share and touchdown upside.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.