NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 8 (2022 Fantasy Football)

This was one of my best weeks this season for DFS success, and I feel pretty fortunate, given the multitude of injuries. I wish the best for those players affected and hope they have a speedy recovery. Now, to business. These injuries will have a far-reaching effect on certain players and team philosophies, so let’s see what kind of DraftKings mispricings we can dig up. As always, I’m available on Twitter @jac3600.

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Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) ($6,200) @ DET

Let’s be honest. Tua Tagovailoa should have had a far worse day against Pittsburgh, as he gifted them FOUR interception chances that they couldn’t convert. However, we don’t track what could have been in fantasy, and this week Tua gets the nuts matchup against Detroit. The Lions have allowed 32.3 PPG while also giving up the fifth most FPPG to QBs and the fourth-highest YPA. They’ve only amassed nine sacks in six games, and Tua, with a clean pocket, is dangerous with Tyreek and Waddle at his disposal. Tua’s middling week 6 performance has caused his price to drop $500, and the upside is ridiculous in this matchup.

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) ($5,700) @ SEA

I called last week’s Daniel Jones breakout performance both on our Football Diehards DFS show and on Jordan Vanek’s Cover 5 show for the 33rd team. While I think it would be unwise to chase another 100-yard rushing day for Jones, there’s still massive upside in a matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks are scoring at will this year but have also allowed the ninth most FPPG to QBs and the third-highest YPA. Jones now has 50 more rushing yards than Jalen Hurts on the season and is the current QB9. Even with a $600 price hike, it’s not enough for how he’s thriving in this offense.

Running Back

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) ($5,900) @ DET

Like his teammate Tua, Raheem Mostert’s price has inexplicably dropped $300 despite his posting 20.9 DK points as the clear lead back in Miami. Mostert had 44 snaps to Chase Edmonds‘ 18 and even received five targets in the passing game (he also caught a TD pass). The Lions have been just as bad on the ground as they are through the air, giving up the third most FPPG to RBs and 10 rushing TDs.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) ($5,300) @ ATL

D.J. Moore lives! With trade rumors still swirling, Moore came to play last Sunday with an improbable 7-69-1 line on ten targets. It didn’t seem possible after P.J. Walker posted a (checks notes) NEGATIVE aDOT the week before, but the two showed some serious chemistry in this one. Moore’s price only rose $400 after that outburst, and he’s just too talented to be this cheap. Throw in a matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the most FPPG to opposing WRs, and Moore will be quite popular in DFS lineups this week.

Marquise Goodwin (WR – SEA) ($4,400) vs NYG

Marquise Goodwin rose from the dead after DK Metcalf‘s injury to post a 4-67-2 line on five targets. While we shouldn’t expect Goodwin to all of a sudden be a star WR, Metcalf’s injury does open up a full-time role for him in this offense. Goodwin parlayed his week 7 role into the overall WR6 in PPR formats, so there’s a good chance he can pay off his $4400 price tag here. The Giants have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing WRs, but sometimes the per-dollar role is too good to pass up.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) ($4,000) vs CAR

We’ve reached the point where Kyle Pitts is almost in punt territory for the TE position, which is astounding. First off, I would only recommend Pitts in GPP formats, not cash, as the floor is simply not there anymore. Atlanta now ranks last in the NFL in pass attempts after only throwing it 13 times in Week 7 and 14 times the week before. The silver lining? Pitts is still heavily involved (at least in Atlanta’s version of the “offense), as he had a 38% target share in Week 7. Atlanta is in the thick of a mediocre NFL South division, so Pitts will always enter a week with stellar upside if the Falcons ever decide to feature him more.

Chris Myarick (TE – NYG) ($2,800) @ SEA

This is not a name I was ever expecting to write about this week, but Myarick’s role and the price fit the “exploitation” theme with Daniel Bellinger out indefinitely. After Bellinger went down, Myarick played a near-every-down role with a 94% snap share (60% total snap share on the game). He was only targeted twice, so the floor is quite low, but his price tag and the matchup (Seattle has allowed the most FPPG to TEs) make up for it.