NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Did you survive the first round of byes? Well, get ready for some next-level bonkers lineup building this week, as the Bills, Eagles, Rams and Vikings are all off (I’m sure you can figure out which superstar players that entails).

Builds should look very different without those players, so let’s dive into some of the pricing gifts DraftKings has for us in week 7. As always, you can find me on Twitter, @jac3600.

• Fantasy Football Week 7 Waiver Wire FAAB Advice: Players to Target, Stash & Drop
• Fantasy Football Week 6 Usage Report: Waiver Wire & Trade Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Players to Buy & Sell
• Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Quarterback Streamers
• Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End Streamers
• Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 7
• Fantasy Football Kicker Guide, Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 7 IDP Waiver Wire Pickups
• Fantasy Football Panic Meter
• Erickson’s Week 6 Rapid Reactions & Top Performers
• Fantasy Football Week 6 Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments
• Fantasy Football Heat Index

Check out all of our Week 6 fantasy football content

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith (QB- SEA) | $5600 @ LAC

With no Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts this week, the sentiment will surely be to pay-down at QB. Geno Smith finally had a bad game in what should have been a shootout, averaging only 6.4 YPA and being under 200 yards for the first time since Week 2. As a result, his price has dropped $100, and he should be in a good environment to rebound against the Chargers, who will be playing on a short week. It also helps that Geno has displayed a rushing floor this season (six carries for 48 yards against Arizona).

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) | $5100 @ JAX

Daniel Jones is not someone you look to for a ceiling game as the Giants have established themselves as a run-first, ball-control offense (finally). Yet, at $5100, he’s priced as a backup, and his price has dropped after throwing for multiple TD passes for the first time since Week 1. Jones has his ground ability to raise his floor, and he’s third in the NFL in rushing yards among QBs (behind only Lamar Jackson and Hurts). This has propelled him to the QB15 on the season, ahead of more expensive players like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) | $6500 vs. HOU

It’s only Tuesday, but this is the easiest call of the week. Josh Jacobs is fifth in the NFL among RBs in carries, fourth in red zone touches and fourth in snap share. He’s also currently the RB7 in PPR scoring. He’s put to rest any concerns of passing game involvement, catching 15 passes on 16 targets over the last three weeks. Throw in a matchup with Houston, who has allowed 5.3 YPC and the most FPPG to opposing RBs, and we have a perfect storm at a way-too-cheap price tag.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) | $7000 vs. ATL

Joe Mixon is another back that’s too cheap on this slate, as it seems his price is more tied to his early-season inefficiency than anything else. The last two weeks have been much better, as Mixon has averaged 5.6 YPC. Don’t worry about last week, as the passing took over in a shootout with New Orleans. Mixon has a favorable matchup against Atlanta, who has allowed 4.6 YPC and the most receptions out of the backfield over the past three seasons combined. His 32 targets are sixth in the NFL among RBs.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) | $6800 vs. DET

We’re getting CeeDee Lamb at a discount this week since the Cowboys played on Sunday night. Yet, honestly, his sub-7k price tag all season has been too cheap as is. His 35% target share leads the NFL, so it doesn’t matter which QB is throwing to him (even though it looks like Dak Prescott should return). Lamb goes from facing a stout secondary in Philly to one of the softest matchups he can have against Detroit, which allows the highest YPR and the sixth most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) | $5800 vs.LAC

This is becoming an evergreen blurb for this article, but DraftKings simply refuses to price-up Tyler Lockett. Granted, he did have a bad game in Week 6, but so did most Seahawks. We also profiled it to be a better matchup for DK Metcalf, anyway, with Byron Murphy likely covering Lockett. This week looks like a big bounce back as the Chargers are vulnerable out of the slot, and there’s plenty of room for upside with Lockett’s price tag.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) | $7400 vs. CLE

If there is no viable punt, you’ll have a hard time convincing me not to use Mark Andrews this week at a price tag that is not remotely befitting of his skillset and role within this offense. Andrews has a 36% air yards share. This not only leads all TE but rivals some of the top WRs in the league. Imagine if we were talking about Jamarr Chase (35% air yards) with a low 7k price tag, and the masses would be all over it. Andrews has double-digit targets in four out of six weeks, and his floor is enhanced even more if Rashod Bateman misses again.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) | @ CIN $4300

Kyle Pitts finally scored his first TD in Week 6, salvaging what would have been another disappointing day after getting only three targets. Even though he’s a big-time ADP bust, Pitts still has room for improvement on his price tag, as he is third among all TEs in target share and second in air yards. Cincinnati has allowed the 10th most FPPG to opposing TEs, and Atlanta is a fairly condensed offense.