NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 6 (2022 Fantasy Football)

The bye weeks are upon us! Usually, this is more of a problem for season-long players as they scour the waiver wire for anyone who can slot in, but it’s also an issue in DFS. With fewer games on the schedule, ownerships will condense around similarly priced players, and we also have to look at the issue of players with that dreaded “Q” tag being limited (or even out) in prep for their next week’s bye. There are still 11 games on the slate this week, so let’s dive into some of the best early pricing errors to exploit on DraftKings.

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Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (QB – TB) ($6300) @ PIT

As predicted, since he’s gotten his full glut of WRs back, Brady has been…well…Brady again. He finished as the overall QB7 last week in a soft matchup against Atlanta and is now on the cusp of the top 12 for the season. His price has only risen $300 on DraftKings even though he’s posted a 71% completion percentage, 736 yards, and 4 TDs over the past two weeks. This week his opponent is Pittsburgh, who has no TJ Watt, has allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs, and just got absolutely carved to pieces by Josh Allen and company. Brady should be a popular play again this week, and rightfully so.

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) ($5700) vs. ARI

Everyone seems to be waiting for the Geno Smith dropoff to happen, but it’s just not. It looked as though New Orleans’ pass rush and secondary would be the death of him, but Geno finished as the week’s QB4 (behind only Allen, Mahomes, and Hurts) and is currently the QB7 for the season. Pete Carroll is letting Geno cook as he never did with Russ, and Rashaad Penny‘s injury could open up an even more pass-heavy approach for Seattle, who are clearly playing to win. Geno has found chemistry with both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf (WR8 and WR19 in PPR, respectively), and Arizona has allowed the ninth most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) ($7700) vs. BAL

Barkley’s price was 8k in week 4 against the Bears, and it’s steadily dropped over the next two weeks, which makes no sense. He’s averaging 22.3 DK PPG and is the current RB3 in PPR formats, and also leads all RBs in snap share (88%) and rushing yards (463) and is second in route participation and opportunity share. This Giants team is winning because they’re leaning on their superstar RB, and his price should not be falling. The Ravens are a middling defense against the run, but Barkley’s role in this offense does not dictate a sub-8k price tag.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) ($5800) @ GB

I’m not entirely sure exactly what this guy has to do to get his price tag over 6k, but we’ll continue reaping the reward for now. Yes, Michael Carter vultured him at the goal line twice, but Breece out-snapped Carter 41 to 25 and ran for an explosive 5.4 YPC. He also has 30 targets now, which is second in the NFL among RBs. The Packers just allowed 5.4 YPC to Saquon Barkley and are now almost at five YPC allowed for the season.

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) ($5,600) vs. ARI

There is no more egregiously priced player than this guy, who is perpetually in the mid-5k range despite putting up WR1 numbers (he’s WR8 on the season in PPR!). At 40 targets through the first five weeks, Lockett brings an incredibly strong floor on DK, and his speed to beat opposing secondaries raises his ceiling significantly as well (as we saw him post 20.8 YPC and two TDs against New Orleans). Arizona’s air defense has tightened up the last two weeks, but this game has a big fantasy upside with a projected shootout.

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) ($5,800) @ IND

Kirk busted big time in week five, but the $800 drop in price tag is unwarranted. Before this dud, he was getting WR1 usage with 36 targets in the first four games, and his seven RZ targets are sixth in the NFL. Kirk already has a game this year where he’s torched these Colts for a 6-78-2 line, and his mid-tier price tag will fit in any format.

Tight End

Zack Ertz (TE – ARI) ($4,900) @ SEA

This is generally not the range I go to for cash play, preferring to go all the way or all the way down at the position. However, in GPPs, this unmoving price tag should keep Ertz’s ownership in check and make for a high-upside tournament play. The Seahawks have allowed by far the most FPPG to opposing TEs (granted, Taysom Hill‘s miracle game last week is driving that a lot), and Ertz has 41 targets through five weeks. DeAndre Hopkins is out for one more week, so Ertz will be overpriced starting a week from now. Take advantage.