NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Friday (10/21)

After struggling on Tuesday, we’ve been much better the last two days. The first day can always be a battle with how little we know, but I feel like we have a grasp after seeing every team play. How these teams develop in the offseason is the most challenging thing to evaluate, but it’s critical to act on any significant changes as swiftly as possible. That’s how we find the best value for DFS, and we’ll surely bank on some of the opening night occurrences here. With that said, let’s look at the Friday schedule!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

• SAS at IND (IND -3.5) O/U: 230.5
• CHI at WAS (WAS -1) O/U: 224.5
• NOP at CHA (NOP -5.5) O/U: 230
• ORL at ATL (ATL -8.5) O/U: 221.5
• BOS at MIA (BOS -2) O/U: 218
• TOR at BKN (BKN -2.5) O/U: 223
• DET at NYK (NYK -6.5) O/U: 217.5
• MEM at HOU (MEM -5) O/U: 228
• UTA at MIN (MIN -8.5) O/U: 228
• DEN at GSW (GSW -5.5) O/U: 228.5
• PHX at POR (PHX -4) O/U: 224.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Myles Turner (ankle) OUT
• Zach LaVine (knee) Questionable
• Lonzo Ball (knee) OUT
• LaMelo Ball (ankle) OUT
• PJ Washington (ankle) Questionable
• Cole Anthony (illness) Questionable
• Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) OUT
• Robert Williams (knee) OUT
• Dillon Brooks (thigh) OUT
• Jaren Jackson Jr.(knee) OUT

Core Plays

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $10,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Ja broke out last season with nearly 50 DraftKings points per game, and it looks like he’s going to do even more this year. The Grizzlies are missing Brooks and Jackson, leaving Morant with a 37 percent usage rate in the opener. If he does that, Morant needs to be one of the most expensive players on the slate. Getting to face Houston is the best part of this, with the Rockets ranked second in pace and dead last in total defense last year.

Pascal Siakam (PF/C – TOR): $8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Siakam is being asked to run the show in Toronto, and he will be a double-double machine from here on out. He had 43 DK points across 34 minutes in his season debut, doing that damage with a 35 percent usage rate. He will play close to 40 minutes as the season progresses, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll stay around $8K with that massive role. Getting to face Brooklyn is beautiful, too, with the Nets surrendering 130 points in their season opener.

DeMar DeRozan (SF/PF – CHI): $8,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
This is DeRozan’s show with LaVine and Ball both out for the Bulls. That was the case in the opener, collecting 37 points, six rebounds, and nine assists against a mighty Miami defense. He’s simply being asked to do everything for Chicago right now, making him way too cheap on DK. Washington is a wonderful matchup, too, with the Wizards raked 25th in defensive ratings last year.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,200 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
We said Jokic will be in here every day when Denver is playing. He’s led the league with over 60 DK points per game over the last two years, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in every game of 2021. That’s the best floor in the sport, and he provided 27 points, four rebounds, six assists, and three steals in a “down” opener. He also crushed the Warriors last year, averaging 63 fantasy points per game in their four matchups.

Tyrese Haliburton (PG/SG – IND): $7,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Haliburton was a Top-10 pick in season-long leagues, and it’s just a matter of time before he creeps up to $10K on both sites. This is one of the most talented youngsters in the NBA, totaling 26 points, four rebounds, and seven assists in the opener. He’s simply running this Indiana offense and will post one of the highest usages in the sport. That’s huge since he faces San Antonio, who allowed 129 points in their debut after sitting 28th in total defense last year,

Terry Rozier (PG/SG – CHA): $7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
We had Rozier in here on Wednesday, and we’re going right back to the well. The guard posted a 27 percent usage rate in the absence of Ball and Bridges last season, amassing 24 points, six rebounds, and six assists on opening night. We expect him to stuff the stat sheet in this expanded role, and it makes him an immense value below $8K. New Orleans is not a scary matchup, ranked 20th in defensive efficiency last year.

GPP Targets

Al Horford (PF/C – BOS): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Big Al was my biggest bust so far this season, but we’re going right back to him with the diminished price tag. This dude is starting at center for the Celtics and was one of their best players when Robert Williams was sidelined. He played in over 10 games without Rob-Will last season, averaging over 35 fantasy points per game. That would be incredible from such an affordable player, and we expect him to bounce back after that opening-night dud.

Mike Conley (PG – UTA): $6,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Most people anticipate Conley being moved amid this Utah rebuild, but he will be their starting point guard until then. This was a former All-Star in the past, generating 13 points, eight assists, and two steals in the opener. He’s going to be asked to do more for this lackluster roster, and it makes him a sneaky choice in DFS until people realize that. We also don’t mind that Minnesota sat 24th in points allowed and first in pace last year.

Ayo Dosunmu (PG/SG – CHI): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
We just discussed how Chicago is missing LaVine and Ball, leaving Dosunmu with the starting point guard job. He showed versatility in that role in his rookie season, playing 35 minutes a night. Any guard getting that sort of playing time is tough to avoid, especially since Ayo had 37 DraftKings points across 36 minutes in the opener. He also benefits from the beautiful matchup mentioned in the DeRozan write-up.

Value Plays

Tre Jones (PG – SAS): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Why is Tre still just $5K on both sites? This is the starting point guard for one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, and he’s played at a $7K level since getting this job. He averaged over 30 DK points per game without Dejounte Murray last year and will be $1,500 more at some point this season. We expect one of those big games here, with Indiana ranked 28th in defensive ratings last year.

Santi Aldama (PF – MEM): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
It was unclear who would step up in Memphis with Brooks and JJJ out, but Aldama is the primary beneficiary. He got the start on Wednesday, compiling 18 points and 11 rebounds across 38 minutes. A double-double and 40 minutes are more indicative of an $8K player, and we’re getting that at half the salary here. The Houston matchup is magical, too, with the Rockets surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards last year.

Bruno Fernando (C – HOU): $4,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
I was shocked to see Bruno starting over Alperen Sengun, but it’s made him one of the best values in DFS. The big man accumulated seven points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in that shocking start, en route to 33 fantasy points. That’s absurd from a $4,500 player, and we have to assume they’ll keep feeding him minutes as long as Bruno plays at this sort of level.

Advantageous Pricing

• DeMar DeRozan (SF/PF – CHI): $8,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
• Mike Conley (PG – UTA): $6,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
• P.J. Washington (PF/C – CHA): $6,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
• Buddy Hield (SG/SF – IND): $6,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $8,800 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
• Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
• Jalen Suggs (PG/SG – ORL): $6,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
• Jabari Smith (PF – HOU): $6,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
• Jamal Murray (PG – DEN): $7,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
• Damian Lillard (PG – DEN): $9,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel

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