MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (10/2)

This is my final article of the season! It saddens me to say that, but this day was inevitable! The good news is that I’ll be back for NBA DFS in about two weeks, and the grind will continue then. Let’s not count out baseball yet, though, because we have four days remaining in the regular season. That makes this Sunday slate a fun one, and I look forward to breaking it down. With that in mind, let’s kick things off with the pitchers!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

We’ve had aces littered throughout the Friday and Saturday cards, leaving us with the backend of the rotations here. There are still some great arms taking the mound, but this can be a frustrating time to play DFS. We say that because these teams are winding down to the end, and many of them will be cautious with their starters. That can shorten some pitch counts unexpectedly and lead to some chaos over the closing week. We’re praying none of that happens here, so, let’s start with the most reliable arms on the slate!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Shane Bieber (CLE) vs. KC

Bieber has recaptured the form that made him a perennial Cy Young candidate. The Guardians ace has a 2.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in a bounceback season, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts. Bieber has a 2.05 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 rate in that superb stretch. He should continue that success against the Royals, ranked 24th in both runs scored and OBP. In their two meetings this season, Shane has a 0.71 ERA and 0.55 WHIP.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) at WAS

Washington is in full-on rebuild mode, trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell. That’s left this lineup looking like a Triple-A roster, making Wheeler one of the best options on the board. The right-hander has a 2.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the year, striking out nearly 30 percent of the batters he faces. These are two teams going in opposite directions, and it has Wheeler entering this matchup as a -250 favorite. In his one matchup with the Nats, Wheeler allowed just four baserunners and one run across seven sparkling innings.

GPP Recommendations:

Robbie Ray (SEA) vs. OAK

Ray hasn’t quite been the 2021 Cy Young winner we were hoping for, but he’s been an ace in the second half. In fact, Ray has a 2.72 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 rate since the beginning of June. That’s the stud we’ve been waiting for, and it makes him tough to avoid against an A’s team that ranks bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. In their four matchups this season. Ray has registered a 1.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 12.8 K/9 rate. Not to mention, he’s a -300 favorite in this magical matchup.

Adam Wainwright (STL) vs. PIT

We’re winding down to the end of Waino’s career, but this guy is still getting the job done. The former All-Star has a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Those are pedestrian averages, but a veteran like this should pummel a Pirates team that ranks 28th or 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and K rate. Wainwright has walloped them in their six matchups since last season, allowing just two runs across 43 unbelievable innings. That’s why he’s a -230 favorite in this game.

Top Lineup Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/PHI -250

I was shocked to see Corbin listed as the starting pitcher. We thought Washington pulled the plug on this gas can, but they’re giving us one more opportunity to stack against him. The left-hander has a 6.08 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in what’s becoming one of the worst seasons of all time. That makes Philly an easy stack, ranked Top-10 in every offensive category.

Texas Rangers (vs. Tucker Davidson)

• Road (Angels Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/LAA -130

Corbin and Davidson are two pitchers that I’ve been exploiting all season. The Angels lefty has been atrocious, accruing a 6.80 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. It’s hard to understand why he’s still being thrown to the wolves, but a righty-heavy lineup like the Rangers should rack up some runs against him. Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung are all great options.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Chase Anderson)

• Home (Wrigley Field)
• Value: High
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CHC -170

Stacking the Cubs can be tricky. This is one of the least talented lineups in baseball, but they sit middle of the pack in almost every statistic. That alone shows how much of a value they can be, but the matchup with Anderson is amazing. The veteran righty has a 4.70 ERA this season, generating a 6.45 ERA and 1.44 WHIP since 2020.

Core Studs

• Judge is the best player in fantasy. We all know about his ridiculous numbers, leading baseball in homers, RBI, and runs scored while flirting with a triple crown. He’s been crushing recently, too, compiling a .545 OBP and 1.405 OPS across his last 35 games. Kyle Bradish is in line to get blasted, too, sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
• Joc has quietly had a great season in San Fran. He’s been hitting leadoff for most of the year, tallying a .357 OBP and .906 OPS against righties. He’s always done that, and it looks even better since he has a .556 OBP and 1.472 OPS across his last seven games. Facing a soft-tosser with a 4.18 ERA isn’t too shabby either.
• Semien has been leading off for the Rangers and continues to stuff the stat sheet. He had a nightmarish opening month but has 86 runs, 26 homers, and 21 steals over his last 115 games. That’s the 45-homer, 15-steal superstar we saw last season, and he’s the best play in this tasty Texas stack.
• Rhys is my favorite per-dollar play in this Phillies stack. The slugging first baseman is up to 30 bombs this season, totaling a 1.162 OPS across his last seven games. He’s also got a .399 OBP and .976 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. Hoskins is also one of many Philly bats who have pummeled Corbin, collecting a .405 OBP, .818 SLG, and 1.223 OPS in 37 at-bats against him.
• We rarely have catcher-eligible players, but Contreras is the best bat in this Cubs lineup. The former All-Star has a .346 OBP and .810 OPS in a typical Contreras campaign. His BvP numbers are beautiful, too, totaling a .588 AVG and 1.623 OPS in 21 at-bats against Anderson.

Value Plays/Punts

• Bohm is a brilliant value in this Phillies stack. He’s hitting over .300 since the opening month, accumulating a .392 OBP, .535 SLG, and .927 OPS against left-handers this year. That won’t go well for Corbin, especially since Bohm hits in the heart of this lineup.
• It’s hard to pick many Cubs, but Happ has been their three-hole hitter all season. He actually earned an All-Star berth, providing a .342 OBP and .778 OPS in a breakout campaign. This switch-hitter has also been better against righties throughout his career, and we have to adore him against an arm like Anderson.
• Jung looks like a star in the making. He posted a .377 OBP and .954 OPS in the minors since 2021 and hit two clutch homers on Tuesday. That power potential is what makes him so scary, with Jung generating a .290 AVG, .645 SLG, and .958 OPS against left-handers this year.
• Muncy is still sitting around the Mendoza Line in terms of his average, but he’s been a stud for months. He’s flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 OPS over the last two months, which is the guy we’ve seen for years. It’s not like German Marquez will slow him down, pitching to a 5.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
• Kelenic has had a nightmarish rookie season, but he is one of the top prospects in baseball. He posted a .909 OPS in the minors and looks like a true .300 AVG, .500 SLG, and .900 OPS type of player. He’s shown glimpses of that recently, registering a .999 OPS across his last seven games. Kelenic facing James Kaprielian isn’t concerning either, with Kap collecting a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

Hitter Strategy

This is the final Sunday of the regular season. That means we’re going to be looking at some bizarre lineups, with numerous teams resting many of their big-name players. That should make lineup construction a breeze, but we want to build our lineups around the Phillies and Rangers. Those two teams are in such brilliant spots and have so much value that it should make everything easy on us DFS players. Some of the other offenses we like include the Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Cubs, and Yankees.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.