Matt Ryan Benched for Sam Ehlinger: Fantasy Football Takeaways & Implications (2022)

Sam Ehlinger will start at quarterback for the Colts’ Week 8 matchup against the Washington Commanders at home on Sunday, the team announced Monday. Matt Ryan has a Grade 2 strain of his throwing shoulder, but Ehlinger is reportedly expected to start for the Colts for the rest of the season regardless of Ryan’s injury status. Ryan will not practice this week and will be inactive on Sunday. Nick Foles will serve as Ehlinger’s backup.

Colts HC Frank Reich said the decision to make the change at QB was “extremely difficult,” but the team is excited about what Ehlinger can bring to the offense. Ehlinger played collegiate football at Texas and was drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

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From NFL Now: The #Colts bench Matt Ryan, and the shoulder injury wasn’t why. pic.twitter.com/8MoYzNmZOG

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 24, 2022

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Sam Ehlinger will start at QB for remainder of season
Mon, Oct 24th 2:17pm EDT
By Kelly Kirby

The Colts announced they are making a change at QB and that Sam Ehlinger will be the starter for the rest of Week 8. (Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter)

Fantasy Impact: Ehlinger appeared in three games in 2021, throwing no passes and rushing three times for nine yards. The move comes as a surprise, and Ehlinger is a wait-and-see QB in fantasy redraft formats. Those in deeper or SuperFlex leagues can roster him cautiously if looking for a QB with opportunities. Anyone taking snaps for the Colts is a risk until they fix their offensive line issues. Nick Foles is now listed as QB2 on the depth chart.

Matt Ryan will not play in Week 8
Mon, Oct 24th 2:05pm EDT
By Kelly Kirby

The Colts have stated that Matt Ryan will not play in Week 8, and Sam Ehlinger will get the start in their home game against the Commanders. Though Ryan is dealing with a Grade 2 flexor strain, the Colts have stated that Ehlinger will be the starter for the rest of the season. (Source: Zak Keefer on Twitter)

Fantasy Impact: Essentially, the Colts are benching Matt Ryan. The 37-year-old went 33 for 44 with 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in Week 7. Ehlinger will start his first NFL game with Nick Foles as QB2. Fantasy managers can probably find better options than Ehlinger on waivers, but he could fill a QB spot in deeper leagues or SuperFlex leagues.

Fantasy Football Takeaways & Implications

With the Colts going all-in on a massive volume, short dropback and quick passing game, Parris Campbell and the receivers were feasting in recent weeks. But it announced that the team will bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger, the former Texas quarterback drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Ehlinger was PFF’s third-highest graded QB during the preseason tying for the league’s highest adjusted completion percentage (92.3%). And his status as QB does not necessarily mean the Colts will get away from the quick-passing game, as Ehlinger can successfully deliver accurate passes at the short-to-intermediate level.

However, with a more mobile quarterback under center, you will likely see the passing attempts dialed back in the Colts’ passing attack. In the last three weeks, Ryan has averaged just under 48 passes per game. The reduction in volume will hurt fringy WRs like Campbell, making him much less enticing off waivers this week.

Volume aside, I am not sure the passing efficiency with Ehlinger can be much worse than what Ryan was doing – hence the QB change by head coach Frank Reich. Ryan boasted the league’s 10th-worst passing EPA, league-high nine interceptions and 24 sacks. Clearly, Reich had seen enough of the turnovers and sacks. The sheer lack of mobility left Ryan as a sitting duck.

Ehlinger offers much more escapability and off-script playmaking behind an offensive line that has struggled. More RPOs and a larger emphasis on the ground game should also get Jonathan Taylor back into the good graces of fantasy managers, even at the cost of targets. Nyheim Hines isn’t nearly as fortunate because he needs targets to score points.

Michael Pittman Jr.‘s value likely suffers with a more ground-based approach as well. He’s still the clear alpha in the offense – 100% route participation in Week 7, 24% target share this season – so there’s some merit to buying low with hopes that Ehlinger’s impressive preseason as a passer will carry over to real-game action. Backup and inexperienced QBs oftentimes just dial onto one receiver, which could easily be Pittman in this case.

I’d be much less bullish on Alec Pierce because he remains the team’s main deep threat, and that is not one of Ehlinger’s main strengths. I’d imagine the Colts want to limit turnovers as much as possible, which means more safe throws closer to the line of scrimmage.
– Andrew Erickson

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.