Week 8 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 8, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 8 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Russell Wilson: Wilson looks like he’ll be back in the starting lineup this week. He’s a borderline QB1/2. Wilson has been a QB1 only once this season and top-15 only three times. Stating that Wilson has been dreadful isn’t shocking anyone. He’s 31st in PFF passing grade, 33rd in adjusted completion rate, and 18th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Jaguars have been more pliable since Week 5 through the air, though. Over the last three weeks, they are 21st in passing yards per game, 27th in EPA per drop back, and 20th in explosive pass rate.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is a low-end QB2 in an absolutely brutal matchup. The Broncos are third in pass defense DVOA with the lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdown rates allowed in the NFL. They have yielded the lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Lawrence is the QB11 in fantasy points per game this season, but that’s partially due to the dreadful state of the quarterback position and his three rushing touchdowns (second-most among quarterbacks). Lawrence will be under siege during this game. Denver is third in blitz rate and seventh in pressure rate. Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 25 pressured dropbacks, Lawrence is 30th in pressured PFF passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 26th in QBR while pressured.

P.J. Walker: Time to give credit where credit is due. Walker has played well in his small run as the Panthers’ starter. Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, he’s 43rd in aDOT but also fourth in PFF passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and 14th in adjusted completion rate. He has finished as the QB30 and QB14 in weekly fantasy scoring. Walker is a mid-QB2 this week. The Falcons’ pass defense has thrown up the white flag in submission this year. After brief flashes as an above-average pass defense in the early going, they have cratered into mediocrity. Atlanta is 32nd in pass defense DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game, and 27th in explosive pass rate while giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Marcus Mariota: The Falcons are desperately trying to cover up Mariota as much as possible. Since Week 3, he’s thrown the ball more than 24 times once. Mariota has three top-12 fantasy finishes this year, all fueled by his rushing. In each of those games, he rushed for at least 50 yards, with rushing touchdowns in two of them. Among the same 43 quarterback sample as Walker, Mariota is 23rd in PFF passing grade, 26th in big-time throw rate, and 38th in adjusted completion rate. Mariota is the QB19 in fantasy points per game. That’s how he should be valued weekly as a mid to low-end QB2 who can hop into the top 12 if his rushing equity hits the high water mark. Carolina has allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and tenth-lowest passing touchdown rate. They might rank 22nd in pressure rate but also 11th in blitz rate. If the blitz gets home, Mariota is in trouble. Mariota is 30th in adjusted completion rate and 33rd in yards per attempt against the blitz (minimum 20 blitzed dropbacks).

Justin Fields: Since Week 4, Fields is the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Much of this is related to his 67.3 rushing yards per game over this span. Over his last four games, he’s been volatile, but he’s pushing the ball downfield. He ranks 29th in PFF passing grade and 32nd in adjusted completion rate (ouch) but he’s also 12th in big-time throw rate, fourth in aDOT, and eighth in yards per attempt. Since Week 4 he’s ninth in EPA per play and 13th in EPA + CPOE composite. Dallas has a strong secondary holding opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest success rate per dropback, fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and seventh-lowest explosive pass rate. Fields is a QB2 that will again have to get it done with this rushing. That’s possible though against a defense that is 24th in explosive run rate allowed.

Derek Carr: Carr is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. He’s managed three top-12 performances this season (QB6, QB11, QB11), with his other three games finishing as the QB16 or lower. The Saints’ pass defense is battered and bruised. Since Week 4, they are 22nd in pass defense, DVOA ranking 22nd in passing yards per game, 31st in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. New Orleans is only 28th in pressure rate. That should help Carr, who has been struggling this season, even from a clean pocket. Among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks from a clean pocket, Carr is 31st in PFF passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 27th in adjusted completion rate.

Andy Dalton: Dalton looks to remain the Saints’ starter. News flash. He’s playing better than most would like to admit. He’s second in PFF passing grade, 16th in yards per attempt, 17th in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). He finished as the QB2 in fantasy last week, exploding for 361 passing yards and four passing scores. Dalton is a strong QB2 that could easily find himself in the top 12 again this week. The Raiders have allowed the sixth-highest success rate per dropback while ranking 27th in passing yards per game and 26th in explosive pass rate.

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Week 8 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

D.J. Moore: Moore showed signs of life last week. He absorbed a 45% target share (nine targets), finishing with seven grabs, 69 receiving yards, and one score as the WR9. Moore has suffered through wretched quarterback play all year. Walker has at least the distinction of a 79.1% on-target rate, which is worlds away from Baker Mayfield‘s 64.1%. Moore has a 27.8% target share (11th) this season with a 39.4% air yard share (fourth). With A.J. Terrell on the shelf with a shoulder injury and Casey Hayward on the IR, Moore will run about 73% of his routes against Cornell Armstrong (62.5% catch rate, 137.0 passer rating) and Darren Hall (76.9% catch rate, 120.4 passer rating). Moore is a WR2.

Drake London: London is a saddening case. He is a ridiculous talent held back by a run-obsessed head coach. Seems to be a theme with Atlanta, right? London hasn’t finished inside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring since Week 3. Since Week 4 among wide receivers with at least ten targets, London has run the sixth-fewest routes per game (19.2) while recording an 85.6% route run rate. Thank you, Arthur Smith, for muting not one but two elite talents into the abyss. London is fifth in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). London will run about 87% of his routes against Donte Jackson (78.4% catch rate, 95.2 passer rating), Keith Taylor (85.7% catch rate, 110.1 passer rating), and C.J. Henderson (70% catch rate, 96.9 passer rating) (if Jaycee Horn isn’t back). London is a WR4.

Darnell Mooney: Since Week 4, Mooney has come back to life. He’s the WR29 over that span, with at least 50 receiving yards and five targets in each game. Since Week 4, he’s 27th in raw target volume, 23rd in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Over the last four games, Mooney is fourth in target share (31.5%) and first in air yard share (52.2%). Mooney will run about 61% of his routes against DaRon Bland (84.6% catch rate, 71.5 passer rating) with Jourdan Lewis on the IR. Mooney is a sneaky upside WR3. Bland is a fifth-round rookie who runs a 4.53 forty. Mooney should be able to torch him.

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR22 in fantasy, drawing a 32.2% target share (third) and 32.4% target per route run rate (fourth). He’s fifth in air yard share (39.0%) while leading the team with ten deep targets (13th). Lamb is 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 59% of his routes in the slot against Kyler Gordon (79.5% catch rate, 112.9 passer rating). Gordon’s play has improved, but since Week 3, he’s still 23rd in yards per snap allowed (minimum 25 slot coverage snaps). If Prescott takes advantage of the Bears’ deep passing issues, Lamb will be the beneficiary. He’s a WR1.

Chris Olave: Olave has been a mega-producer and arguably the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL when he’s been active. In his full games played, he’s seen a 27.4% target share with 42.6% of the team’s air yards. He has stacked a 77.9 PFF receiving grade and 2.38 yards per route run in those weeks. This season, those would rank 15th and 11th-best among wide receivers (minimum 15 targets). Olave leads the NFL in deep targets, and now he faces a pass defense ranked 26th in DVOA against deep passing. Olave is a WR2 that will run about 74% of his routes against Rock Ya-Sin (47.8% catch rate, 66.4 passer rating) and Anthony Averett (80% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating).

Jakobi Meyers: With the churning uncertainty of quarterback, Meyers saw only two targets last week. Luckily, he secured one for a touchdown to finish as the WR33 in fantasy. Meyers is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with top 36 finishes in three of five games. Meyers is quietly turning in a fantastic season, ranking 14th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). His biggest issue remains the lack of red zone usage, with zero red zone targets this season. Meyers has a 22.9% target share and 30.9% air yard share (24th). Meyers should be the focal point of the Pats passing attack this week against the only decent cornerback matchup. He’ll run about 70% of his routes against Michael Carter (73.3% catch rate, 95.0 passer rating). Meyers is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

DeVonta Smith: Don’t look now, but Jalen Hurts…the much-maligned, pitiful passer (per social media), is supporting two top 24 wide receivers. Smith is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, with top-25 finishes in four of his last five games. He has quietly been a stud, ranking 17th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He only has four red zone targets (42nd) this season, but he leads the team in deep targets (six, Brown five). Smith is a WR2. He’ll match up with Witherspoon and Pierre on 79% of his routes.

Terry McLaurin: Despite Jaire Alexander shadowing McLaurin on 69% of his routes, he saw his highest target share (25%) and second-highest target total of the season. McLaurin could be primed for another shadow matchup with week against Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has shadowed twice this year following Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton on 57-84% of their routes, limiting them to four receptions (11 targets) and 33 receiving yards (zero touchdowns). McLaurin is 43rd in PFF receiving grade and 52nd in yards per route run this season (minimum 15 targets) with a 17.4% target share. If Heinicke will force him the ball weekly, McLaurin is a WR3.

Week 8 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Christian McCaffrey: With little time to learn the playbook, McCaffrey played 28% of the snaps with ten touches for 62 total yards. Expect all of these numbers to trend upward this week. It’s impossible to project his workload this week, but expecting him to take the lion’s share of the work should be the baseline. McCaffrey should have the opportunity to show off his skills. He ranks 15th in evaded tackles, fourth in yards per route run, and 14th in breakaway runs. Since Week 4, the Rams’ strong run defense has relented some, ranking 18th in rushing yards per game. They remained 11th in EPA per rush and fifth in explosive run rate. McCaffrey should be able to make the most of his targets against a defense that’s quietly allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception to backs. With the uncertainties around his usage, McCaffrey is a low-end RB1.

Darrell Henderson: Henderson opened the week missing practice dealing with an illness. He looks good to go this week, though. In Week 6, returning to the starting gig, he played 71% of the snaps with 14 touches and 52 total yards. Behind a struggling Rams offensive line, Henderson is 46th in juke rate, 30th in yards created per touch, and 33rd in breakaway run rate. He faces a 49er run defense that’s permitted the sixth-lowest rush success rate, second-fewest rushing yards per game, and is first in explosive run rate. Henderson is an RB3.

Aaron Jones: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Matt LaFleur. Finally, Jones has taken the backfield over. This should have happened much earlier in the season, but I’m glad that it is happening now for the Packers’ sake. Since Week 5, Jones has averaged 14.7 touches and 66.7 total yards. Jones is the RB12 in fantasy points per game. He’s ninth in yards per touch, top-ten in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate, and 15th in yards created per touch. Since Week 4, Buffalo has been fourth in rush defense DVOA, third in rushing yards per game, eighth in EPA per rush, and 20th in explosive run rate. Jones is an RB2 in this brutal matchup, but the hope is he can find a crease and break off a long run against a defense that has given up some.

A.J. Dillon: No, I don’t hate Dillon, in case you’re wondering, but his play this season hasn’t matched last year’s. He is 48th in yards per touch, 45th in yards created per touch, and has one breakaway run this season. Since Week 5, he has averaged eight touches and 33.7 total yards. He has been an RB2 or better in only two games this season. The offense desperately needs to start making plays, which hasn’t happened with Dillon playing an equal role in this backfield. Dillon is a touchdown-or-bust RB4.

Travis Etienne: It’s wheels up for Etienne. The runway was cleared last week, but now with James Robinson shipped off, there’s no one looming behind Etienne. Last week he saw RB1 usage. Etienne played 80% of the snaps with 15 touches that he turned into 119 total yards. Etienne also saw an 11.6% target share while absorbing a 45.5% route rate which could continue to climb. Since Week 4, Etienne is 12th in yards after contact per attempt, second in breakaway rate, and 12th in PFF’s elusive rating. Denver can be run on. Since Week 4, their run defense ranks 21st in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush, and 14th in explosive run rate allowed. Etienne is a top 12-15 running back this week.

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman now jumps into high-end RB2 territory with the Hubbard news. Looking at the above small sample numbers, Foreman has continued to run like a person on a mission. Last year Foreman was 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Foreman played 54% of the snaps last week with 17 touches and 145 total yards as the RB17. Foreman will be the 1A in the backfield, with Raheem Blackshear possibly seeing some passing down work. Foreman may get workhorse usage in this game, though. If that happens, he can smash Atlanta. The Falcons have the second-highest rush success rate allowed while also sitting at 29th and 22nd in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game as they have faced the sixth-fewest rushing attempts per game. Teams have been happy to pass all game, but the Panthers look like they are deploying the Bears model. Run, Run, Run, and then maybe pass the ball. The Panthers’ run blocking has been among the best in the league, ranking 11th in adjusted line yards and seventh in open field yards.

Week 8 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich has been worked into the offense quickly. Since Week 6, he’s drawn a 17.1% target share with a 74.4% route run rate. Over the last two games, he’s been the TE11 and TE7 in weekly scoring. He’s garnered three deep targets, and a red zone look in this short stretch. Dulcich is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. The Jaguars are 21st in DVOA against tight ends with the fifth-highest yards per reception allowed.

Evan Engram: Engram is a TE2 this week. He remains the lackluster volume factory. Engram is 11th in target share, seventh in routes run, and eighth in raw target volume at the position. He’s only the TE14 in fantasy points per game, as he’s 24th in PFF receiving grade, 16th in yards per route run, and 25th in fantasy points per target. The Broncos have been tough on tight ends, ranking fifth in DVOA, giving up the fifth-lowest yards per reception and 13th-fewest fantasy points per game.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts suffers from the same Smith-itis. Among tight ends with 15 or more targets, he’s 12th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run. Pitts has run 19.2 routes per game. He’s the only tight end with a route rate above 60% (76.7%), below 22.9 routes per game. Pitts has only seen more than five targets twice this season and surpassed 30 receiving yards once. Again, this is not a Pitts problem but a result of the offensive system he is tied to. Pitts is a TE2 until (if) this offensive design changes. Carolina is 26th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the third-highest catch rate.

Dalton Schultz: In Prescott’s first game back, Schultz saw a 20% target share which is encouraging, but as a reflection of his overall health, he only ran a route on 57% of dropbacks. I don’t buy the Cowboys’ reports of him being at full health. This has been reflected this week in his limited practices and now his questionable tag. Schultz is 31st in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Schultz is a TE2 in a rough matchup. The Bears are seventh in DVOA against the position holding tight ends to the fifth-lowest receiving yards and eighth-lowest yards per reception (one touchdown). 

Mike Gesicki: Since being reintegrated into this offense in Week 5, Gesicki is the TE6 with a 15% target share and a 66.2% route run rate. Over that small three-game span, he’s 13th in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run with five red zone targets. Gesicki has run about 60% of his routes from the slot, so he’ll see plenty of A.J. Parker (100% catch rate, 118.8 passer rating). Detroit is also 31st in DVOA against tight ends if we’re viewing Gesicki from the traditional tight-end lens. They have allowed the seventh-highest catch rate and yards per reception. Gesicki is a top-12 tight end.

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy scoring, but his Week 4 legend performance against Seattle is masking his shortcomings. Outside of that game, he has only one top-12 finish this season. If we take Week 4 out of the equation, Hockenson is 25th in PFF receiving grade, 34th in yards per route run, and has a 16% target share (four red zone targets). No, I’m not a proponent of “well, if we exclude all of the big plays then,” but this game against Seattle looks like a massive outlier stacked against the rest of his 2022 resume. With all of that being said, Miami is a good matchup for Hockenson. The Dolphins are 23rd in DVOA against tight ends giving up the eighth-most receiving yards and highest catch rate, but they have also yielded the third-lowest yards per reception. Hockenson is a low-end TE1.

Zach Ertz: Since 2021 in a small five-game sample with Hopkins on the field, Ertz has seen his targets drop from 10.0 per game to 4.4 and his receiving yards per game dip from 59.5 to 36.2. Again this is a tiny sample to draw from, but it’s worth mentioning. Despite concerns with Hopkins back, Ertz remains a TE1. He’s the TE5 this season, commanding a 20.2% target share with the third-most red zone targets. He’s 14th in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The Vikings are a cake matchup for Ertz this week, ranking 32nd in DVOA with the fifth-highest catch rate, seventh-highest yards per reception, and eighth-most receiving yards per game allowed.

Robert Tonyan: It took only one game for Tonyan to turn back into a pumpkin. Since Week 4, he has had a 15% target share but a 56.2% route run rate. Week 6 is the only game this season in which Tonyan has more than 40 receiving yards. Tonyan is a TE2 in a terrible matchup. Buffalo is second in DVOA against tight ends, limiting them to the seventh-lowest yards per reception and zero touchdowns.

Hayden Hurst: Hurst is a low-end TE1. He’s the TE12 in fantasy points per game with a 14.6% target share (16th), seven red zone targets (sixth), and the third-most routes run. He’s the poster child for volume is king. He’s been terribly inefficient, ranking 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 41st in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The Browns are 12th in DVOA against tight ends with the lowest catch rate allowed while also ranking first in yards per reception.

Week 8 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 8 K Start/Sit Grades