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    Andrew Erickson | Thu, Oct 27th 2022, 8:57am EDT

Erickson’s Week 8 Rankings & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 8. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis.

Be sure to check out my following notes on all the players/matchups this week from a season-long, DFS, player props, etc. perspective that shed light on “how the sausage is made” when it comes to finalizing my Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings.

Enjoy!

Check out all of our Week 8 fantasy football content

BYE WEEK TEAMS: Chiefs, Chargers

Thursday Night Football

Ravens at Buccaneers

  • Tom Brady has thrown for just 2 passing touchdowns over his last three games. He only has one game this season with double-digit passing scores. But the counting stats hardly align with Brady’s on field play because his expected TD output over the last 3 weeks is 6.5 touchdowns. He’s still a top-10-graded QB on the year from a clean pocket per PFF.
  • I’d go back to Brady Thursday night against the Ravens. They have faced the 5th-most passing attempts this season, so the volume (and TDs) should be there for Brady. Baltimore ranks 26th in red-zone defense.
  • And TB12 should have time to time to deliver the ball to his playmakers, with the No. 1 pass-blocking advantage this week per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart. Baltimore has struggled to consistently generate pass rush this season.
  • Leonard Fournette totaled just 10 touches to Rachaad White‘s 7 in Week 7. Lombardi Lenny totaled just 19 rushing yards and 3 targets (6% target share) running a route on just 47% of dropbacks. White has totaled 7 touches in back-to-back weeks but continues to see his snaps increase. The rookie’s 43% snap share was a season-high, while Fournette tied for a season-low (60%). And this was a game that the Buccaneers NEEDED to win against Carolina. Following the snaps has been a tried-and-true approach to buying/selling RBs at the right time.
  • And based on the trends, you want to get out of the Fournette business ASAP. His 2.33 yards after contact rank 3rd-worst among all RBs with at least 30 carries. He’s a fringe RB1 for Thursday night in a neutral matchup versus the Ravens.
  • Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 66 yards and two TDs in return from torn ACL. Kenyan Drake rushed 11 times for a measly 5 yards in Week 7. It was great to see Edwards immediately take over the backfield for Baltimore in lieu of J.K. Dobbins‘ injury. However, keep in mind that Edwards had a super easy matchup against the Cleveland Browns horrible run defense. And had it not been for the two rushing scores, Edwards would not be held in nearly as high regard. He also played just 36% of the snaps with a 50% opportunity share. With zero pass game usage to speak of and a tougher matchup coming up against the Buccaneers, I’d keep Edwards in the RB3 territory.
  • The Ravens pass defense has played better in recent weeks, but they are still bleeding fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. No team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs lined up inside, so Chris Godwin needs to be in all lineups. He owns a 29% target share over the last two weeks (25 targets).
  • Russell Gage has been ruled out, which means will we likely see more of Scotty Miller in the starting lineup. He’s seen at least 5 targets in all the games he has played with a 40% or higher snap share but has yet to crest more than 35 yards or 4 catches.
  • Other guys out for the Buccaneers include CB Carlton Davis, S Antoine Winfield, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, TE Cameron Brate and G Luke Goedeke for tomorrow night’s game vs. the #Ravens. WR Julio Jones is a game-time decision.
  • Cade Otton should benefit the most from the lack of healthy receiving options. He has an elite role in the offense when Brate is out and can be trusted at tight end in a pinch. 81% snap share and 73% route participation is nothing to sneeze at. Just keep in mind that Otton was used almost exclusively as a check-down option in Week 7 (-29 air yards) which probably contributed to the lack of targets going to Fournette.
  • The matchup is solid versus the Ravens. They have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to TEs over the last three weeks.
  • In Otton’s two starts, he has averaged 5 catches for 50-plus yards.

Favorite DFS plays:

Sunday London Game

Broncos at Jaguars (in London)

  • Denver has the No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL this season. Jacksonville ranks 21st in red-zone scoring percentage with them ranking 11th in rushing TD rate.
  • It’s been a dead-even split between wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton this season in terms of target share (21%) air yards share (30%) in the four games they have been fully healthy with Russell Wilson under center.
  • All things being equal, Jeudy might be the superior option this week with a more favorable matchup from the slot against cornerback Darious Williams. No defensive back has been targeted more inside than Williams this season (5 per game).
  • However, there’s still touchdown appeal with Sutton. He leads the team in red-zone targets (9) but has only scored once. The Jaguars have allowed an average of at least once receiving TD to an opposing WR this season.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. posted 86% opportunity share in Week 7 which ranked inside the top 5 at the running back position. With James Robinson completely out of the picture, ETN is slated to be the bellcow for the remainder of 2022.
  • The Broncos rank 7th in yards per carry (4.8) and 8th in targets per game to opposing RBs this season. Start Etienne as fantasy RB1 based on his explosiveness and 80% snap share from Week 7. The second-year back ranks second in rushing yards over expectation per attempt this season (2.5). 
  • Melvin Gordon (11 carries) and Latavius Murray (8 carries) split carries and touches after Mike Boone got hurt in Week 7. Gordon earned more targets (4 vs 3), ran more routes, played more snaps (51% vs 39%) and seems to still be the “starter”. However, it’s hardly that clear-cut because Murray bogarted two carries inside the 10-yard line. Overall just gross, but it helps them both that Boone was placed on IR.
  • The Jaguars’ biggest weakness vs RBs are ones used in the passing game, so that’s why MG3 gets the nod for me as the highest-ranked Bronco RB for Week 8.
  • Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich turned his elite usage last week into production: 6-51 on nine targets (26% target rate per route run). He can be streamed if you need a tight end. His role carried over from Week 6 as he ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. Although the matchup is not favorable for him versus a defense that ranks top-5 in fewest receptions and targets to TEs this season.
  • Evan Engram is the much safer option. He owns a 21% target share over the last three weeks, leading the team in catches (15) and receiving yards (176).

Favorite DFS plays:

Sunday Early Afternoon Slate

Panthers at Falcons

  • D’Onta Foreman rushed 15 times for 118 yards in Week 7 while operating in a timeshare with fellow Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard (54% snap share, 55% opportunity share). Hubbard saw three targets (46% route participation) to Foreman’s two (42% route participation) but left in the 4th quarter with an ankle injury. The former was the starter with 7 carries for 33 yards in 1st half. Foreman had two carries but also two 1st-half catches. And that was because he was playing downs during the 2-minute drill. However, Hubbard’s ankle injury could set up Foreman to be the bellcow for Carolina in Week 8. Hubbard has been ruled out for Week 8. 
  • Hubbard finished Week 7 with the league’s 6th-highest rushing EPA. D’Onta Foreman finished 14th.
  • Bye weeks got you down? PJ Walker isn’t a horrible QB streamer. Atlanta ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs. And they are dealing with multiple injuries with top cornerbacks Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell out of the lineup. Not to mention, CB Dee Alford is questionable and safety Jaylinn Hawkins is out with a concussion. 
  • Bodes well for WR D.J. Moore to stay in all starting lineups. He operated as the Panthers passing attack in Week 7 gobbling up a 48% target share for 69 yards and 1 TD.
  • Sit Drake London and Kyle Pitts. There’s just not enough passing volume in this offense for London and Pitts to be in fantasy starting lineups.
  • London is averaging 6.3 targets per game – the same as Chase Claypool and Marvin Jones. Pitts is averaging 5 targets per game – the same as Nico Collins, Corey Davis and Allen Robinson.
  • Carolina is facing the 6th-most rushing attempts this season. But interestingly enough, they rank first in run defense EPA. Go figure. Perhaps the Falcons won’t be able to run as effectively as they hope to do.
  • Rookie Tyler Allgeier rushed 16 times for 50 yards and 1 score in Week 7 out-touching Caleb Huntley by 10. He saw 3 carries inside the 10-yard line. Allgeier hit a season-high 62% snap share and has now totaled 15-plus carries for two consecutive weeks. His volume alone should suffice a solid fantasy RB2 outing. 

Favorite DFS plays:

Bears at Cowboys

  • The Bears are allowing the league’s highest TD rate on the ground (67%).
  • This game has some sneaky appeal. Highest projected pace of play.
  • In CeeDee Lamb‘s two games played this season with Dak Prescott, he has just six catches for 99 yards on a 26% target share. Chicago is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.
  • Ezekiel Elliott did exactly what he was expected to do in Week 7. Smash. He compiled 15 carries for 57 yards and 2 rushing TDs against the league’s worst run defense. But again. Zero targets. So all that glitters is not gold for Zeke. Because this is the exact time to SELL HIGH.
  • For back-to-back weeks, Elliott has split backfield opportunities near a dead-even split with Tony Pollard. And in Week 7, we saw something unthinkable. Pollard out-snapped Zeke (65% to 49%) while running a route on 50% of dropbacks. Elliott also didn’t miss any time after taking a shot to the knee that initially looked much worse. However, he is reported to have a Grade 2 MCL sprain and a thigh bruise. He is doubtful to suit up in Week 8. Considering his status and the Cowboys having a Week 9 bye week, I’d expect Pollard to see the lion’s share of touches in a plus matchup. Start Pollard across all formats.
  • The Bears have the easiest schedule for fantasy RBs remaining for the rest of the season. Considering David Montgomery (56% snap share, 15 touches) and Khalil Herbert (41% snap share, 14 touches) split touches nearly 50/50 in their Week 7 victory of the Patriots, Herbert’s a sneaky trade target because he’s not viewed as the team’s starter. Even though he’s been better than Montgomery in virtually every single rushing metric this season while ranking 3rd in yards after contact per attempt. And his 41% snap share was the highest it’s ever been in a game where Montgomery was fully healthy. The snaps, talent and schedule all suggest Herbert’s on the cusp of taking over.
  • So I’d be wary of playing Montgomery in a tough matchup versus the Cowboys’ defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the RB position.

Favorite DFS plays:

Dolphins at Lions

  • The Dolphins possess the third-highest implied team total on the slate. But this game as a whole has the second-lowest projected pace of play.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense is allowing the league’s 4th-highest rushing TD rate this season, so it’s wheels up for Raheem Mostert.
  • Mostert has been Miami’s clear RB1 over the last several weeks over Chase Edmonds. He saw elite route participation in Week 7 (71%, five targets) and has averaged just under 18 touches per game/90 yards from scrimmage/77.5 rushing yards since Week 4. Edmonds has averaged fewer than 5 touches per game over the same span.
  • Tyreek Hill has a 31% target share in four games played with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Jaylen Waddle has a 26% target share with his southpaw QB, but has more receiving yards per game than Hill (107.5 vs 97).
  • Miami ranks top-3 in yards per carry faced to RBs this season, but bottom-3 in yards per reception to RBs in the passing game. D’Andre Swift averaged 4 targets per game through the 1st three weeks of the season.
  • You could do worse than Kalif Raymond if you are desperate for a WR this week. Detroit is banged up at the position, which led to Raymond running a route on 91% of dropbacks in Week 7. He commanded a 24% target share. Josh Reynolds started the week with a DNP.
  • Mike Gesicki‘s role dipped slightly from Week 6 to Week 7 with Durham Smythe back from injury. 76% route participation fell to 68%…although he saw 7 targets for the second straight week. However, playing alongside two alphas like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill is going to make him tough to trust. He’s fringe streamer in Week 8 due to the plus-matchup. The Lions ranks 5th in fantasy points to tight ends. However, they have been most vulnerable versus TEs aligned in-line. Gesicki has played just 25% of his snaps in-line this season and just 18% the last two weeks.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown left Week 7 in the 1st quarter with what was thought to be a concussion. Initially diagnosis was the potential to miss a week. However, head coach Dan Campbell said ASB did not suffer a concussion and was kept out only due to the new protocol. That gives him a better chance to suit up in Week 8 in a plus-matchup versus the Dolphins reeling defense. They are a bottom-1o defense in receiving yards, catches and targets to WRs this season. Miami also ranks 6th in YAC allowed this season. St. Brown ranks 12th in YAC/game this and 19th in YAC/reception season.
  • And better yet, the Lions have the fourth-most favorable WR schedule per PFF over the next four weeks. So although it’s been a while since we have seen him produce, that means he is frustrating his fantasy managers. Take full advantage. Trade for him and his 33% target rate per route run. I really doubt the Lions are looking to rush first-round rookie Jameson Williams back on the field with their W-L record sitting at 1-5.

Favorite DFS plays:

Cardinals at Vikings

  • Irv Smith Jr. is slowly getting his way into the streaming tight end conversation. A perfect 4-for-4 on his targets plus a score in Week 6. He has a dream matchup versus the Arizona Cardinals defense in Week 8 that bleeds fantasy points to TEs. They have allowed the second-most points to the position this season.
  • Their defense has also allowed nearly 1 receiving TD per game to opposing TEs, while ranking bottom-10 in passing TD rate given up.
  • Arizona’s defense has also been sneaky good versus the run this season, ranking second-best in rushing defense EPA.
  • They haven’t been nearly as successful versus the pass, ranking fourth-worst in passing defense EPA and dead last in yards after the catch allowed.
  • Justin Jefferson ranks second in YAC/game (48.2). Kirk Cousins ranks 35th in aDOT, which just screams an effective short-passing game on tap. Top-10 in passing attempts per game and 6th in pass rate over expectation. 
  • That all being said, this sets up like a game where Cousins and his receivers contribute the most to Minnesota’s 26.25 implied team total – the 4th-highest mark on the slate.
  • Arizona has the worst run matchup this week per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
  • This matchup has the third-highest projected pace of play making it perfect for DFS stacking. The fact it’s in a dome is just icing on the cake. Another interesting DFS nugget is both of these defenses rank first in targets allowed to No. 3 WRs. So in big-field tournaments, it might make sense to go off-the-grid with guys like K.J. Osborn or Robbie Anderson.
  • Keep starting DeAndre Hopkins. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to WRs this season.
  • Hopkins made his return to the starting lineup after a six-game suspension and was immediately peppered with targets from Kyler Murray. He was targeted 14 times (48% target share) catching 10 balls for 103 receiving yards. Safe to say, he’s back in the fantasy WR1 territory.

Favorite DFS plays:

Raiders at Saints

  • This game has the third-lowest projected pace of play.
  • But I’d anticipate there will still be some offensive fireworks on both offensive sides of the ball. The Raiders defense ranks last in fantasy points allowed to QBs, and No.1 in passer rating allowed. QB finishes against them:QB5, QB7, QB8, QB3, QB2, QB6. That makes Andy Dalton and his pass catchers (most notably, Chris Olave) plug-in options. Olave owns a 30% target share since Week 2.
  • The Saints rank dead last in pressure rate, which should set up an above average passing day for Derek Carr. All 9 of Carr’s TDs this season have come from a clean pocket this season.
  • I hate to toot my own horn, but Juwan Johnson‘s epic Thursday night is the perfect example of correctly evaluating the tight end position. He entered the game with elite numbers regarding snaps played and routes run. Fellow tight end Adam Trautman was out and the Cardinals were the best matchup for TEs. So I was not surprised about Johnson’s impressive performance (5-32-2) on Thursday night. His route participation remained elite (79%) and that role transcended to fantasy production in the plus-matchup. Chase. Routes. Run. At. Tight. End.
  • And that means going right back to Johnson versus the Las Vegas Raiders. They rank fourth in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

Patriots at Jets

  • No. 2 RB Michael Carter came in relief and handled 15 touches for 74 yards after Breece Hall suffered a torn ACL injury in Week 7. Also caught 2 balls for 45 through the air. He posted a 71% opportunity share while running a route on 59% of dropbacks, and that includes Hall’s touches to start the game. No doubt he will have the chance to be the featured RB for the rest of the season.
  • But Carter hardly offers the same upside as Hall so I’d put the second-year RB on the trade block with him likely in the RB3 range for the rest of the season. He ranks 5th-worst in yards after contact per attempt this season. Hall ranked fourth best.
  • Carter’s best finish last season was RB17 with Zach Wilson under center, and he never was able to truly take over the backfield from an aging Tevin Coleman.
  • And in the three games this season that Carter played 60%-plus of the snaps, he averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring. That average would be good for RB30 status for the year.
  • Not to mention, the addition of ex-Jaguars running back James Robinson clouds Carter’s potential workload. J-Rob is no slouch, having finished as a fantasy RB1 for the past two seasons. Wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see Robinson usurp Carter as the RB1 in this backfield based on his pedigree. And if the Jets truly thought that Carter could be their bellcow, why trade for Robinson in the first place?
  • As for Carter in Week 8, it’s a tough matchup versus the Patriots. 7th-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to RBs. 3rd-fewest targets allowed to RBs. That makes Carter a low-end RB2. The silver lining is the Patriots rank dead last in yards per reception (10.2) and 30th in DVOA to RBs so Carter can get the job done as a receiver. 
  • Rhamondre Stevenson SZN. Even with Damien Harris back in the lineup, Stevenson was treated as the team’s true bellcow. 77% snap share to Harris’ 17% snap share (9 snaps). 19 touches overall (8 receptions, 29% target share) while running a route on 69% of dropbacks for a 79% opportunity share. Top-15 fantasy RB rest of season.
  • Tyquan Thornton ran a route on 94% of the Patriots’ dropbacks on Monday Night – by far his highest route participation to date. He ran more routes than DeVante Parker for the first time all season.

Favorite DFS plays:

Steelers at Eagles

  • The Eagles boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate.
  • Najee Harris‘ usage has been solid — 84% opportunity share in Week 7 — but the production has not followed. He’s yet to crack a top-12 finish at any point this season and currently ranks 5th worst in yards per carry (3.3). There’s a major fear that Harris won’t be able to take advantage of an Eagles run defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to RBs as the Steelers are 11-point road underdogs with an abysmal 16.5-point team total. He’s an RB2 floor option at best, with hopes that he falls in the end zone.
  • Pittsburgh gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to the WR position. Start DeVonta Smith. Their defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to No. 2 WRs. Smith leads the Eagles in target share (29%) in their last two games. His target share is tied with A.J. Brown (28%) over their last four games.
  • Rookie George Pickens reclaimed No. 2 WR duties in Week 7 with Kenny Pickett back under center. He led the Steelers WRs in yards (61) catching all six of his targets with one receiving TD. He ran just two fewer routes than Diontae Johnson but three more than Chase Claypool.
  • Johnson continues to see high target volume (24% target share), but his efficiency continues to leave so much desired. His 10 targets in Week 7 translated into 5 catches for 42 yards. He has one top-30 finish in half-point scoring this season and zero top-36 finishes in 4 games played with Pickett playing. Pickens has nearly doubled his yardage (273 versus 141) in the last four weeks. Johnson is nothing more than a fantasy WR3 in Week 8 against a tough Eagles secondary. They rank 1st in catch rate (54.4%) and 3rd in lowest yards per reception allowed to WRs. Johnson is the WR65 in points per game over his last four. Claypool is WR44 and Pickens is WR24.

Favorite DFS plays:

Sunday Late Afternoon Slate

Titans at Texans

  • The Titans are allowing the league’s lowest rushing TD percentage (7%) and therefore the league’s highest passing TD rate.
  • That puts Davis Mills very much in the quarterback streaming conversation after he finished Week 7 as the QB6 overall, throwing for 302 passing yards and 2 TDs.
  • It also makes it less likely that Dameon Pierce finishes Week 8 as a top-12 option, without a score to boost his numbers. Tennessee has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs. However, Pierce still can hit the century mark on the ground based on his tackle-breaking ability. The Titans are a bottom-10 defense in total missed tackles, despite already having their bye week. By average, they rank dead last in missed tackles per game (6.7).
  • Pierce finished Week 7 with 20 carries for 92 yards, and also added four catches for 25 yards. The rushing volume will be there every week with the rookie, but the receiving work is encouraging. Although it’s probably never going to be elite – with the likes of Rex Burkhead (6 targets, 5 catches for 11 yards) and Dare Ogunbowale (7 targets, 5 catches for 54 yards) involved as pass-catchers out of the backfield. Pierce ran a route on just 29% of dropbacks in Week 7.
  • Brandin Cooks has been underwhelming this season – one top-20 finish – as his targets have decreased every single week since the start of the season. However, with Nico Collins a candidate to miss this game, Cooks is slated to see the majority of passing targets from Mills in a great matchup. The Titans rank third in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs this season.
  • Derrick Henry ranks first in carries per game (22.3) and fourth in rushing yards per game (89.3). Texans rank last in rushing yards and carries faced this season to RBs this season. Fantasy managers were robbed of the biannual Houston matchup last year because of Henry’s injury. But let’s not forget that in Henry’s last 3 matchups versus the Texans…he has averaged 224 rushing yards. 

Favorite DFS plays:

Commanders at Colts

  • Parris Campbell routinely has seen great route participation, but in the last two weeks he has finally put together production to go alongside it. After seeing double-digit targets last week, he earned 12 targets for 10 receptions and 70 receiving yards and one TD. With the Colts going all-in on a massive volume short dropback and quick passing game, Campbell and the receivers were feasting in recent weeks.
  • But it announced that the team will bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger, the former Texas quarterback drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Ehlinger was PFF’s third-highest graded QB during the preseason tying for the league’s highest adjusted completion percentage (92.3%). And his status as QB does not necessarily mean the Colts will get away from the quick-passing game, as Ehlinger can successfully deliver accurate passes at the short-to-intermediate level.
  • However, with a more mobile quarterback under center, you will likely see the passing attempts dialed back in the Colts passing attack. In the last three weeks, Ryan has averaged just under 48 passes per game. The reduction in volume will hurt fringy WRs like Campbell, making him much less enticing off waivers and in starting lineups. Volume aside, I am not sure the passing efficiency with Ehlinger can be much worse than what Ryan was doing – hence the QB change by head coach Frank Reich. Ryan boasted the league’s 10th-worst passing EPA, league-high nine interceptions and 24 sacks. Reich had seen enough of the turnovers and sacks. The sheer lack of mobility left Ryan as a sitting duck.
  • Michael Pittman Jr.‘s value likely suffers with a more ground-based approach with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB.
  • He’s still the clear alpha in the offense – 100% route participation in Week 7, 24% target share this season – so there’s some merit to buying low with hopes that Ehlinger’s impressive preseason (No.3-graded QB) as a passer will carry over to real-game action. Backup and inexperienced QBs oftentimes just dial onto one receiver, which could easily be Pittman in this case.
  • I’d be much less bullish on Alec Pierce because he remains the team’s main deep threat, and that is not one of Ehlinger’s main strengths. Although, considering how bad Ryan’s was at this point in his career, it actually might be a slight upgrade. I’d imagine the Colts want to limit turnovers as much as possible, which means more safe throws closer to the line of scrimmage.
  • Pittman’s aDOT this season ranks 10th-lowest in the NFL this season (6.8). If anything, at least the matchup versus Washington is favorable in Week 8. Overall, the Colts own the 5th-easiest schedule for WRs per FantasyPros Strength of schedule tool.
  • Jonathan Taylor finished Week 7 with just 10 carries but was efficient (58 yards) coming off his ankle injury. He also saw 8 targets and caught 7 passes for 27 yards. 8 targets tied career-high. 7 catches were a career-high. He’s probably a BUY more than a sell after a lackluster start to the season.
  • He’s healthy and I’d imagine his 55% snap share will increase another week removed from injury. But the matchup is not great versus a stout Washington front that ranks fourth in run defense EPA.
  • New starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger offers much more escapability and off-script playmaking behind an offensive line that has struggled. More RPOs and a larger emphasis on the ground game should also get Taylor back into the good graces of fantasy managers even at the cost of targets. Nyheim Hines isn’t nearly as fortunate because he needs targets to score points.
  • This game could be “sneaky” fun for fantasy purposes. 4th-highest projected pace of play.
  • Ehlinger can be streamed due to his rushing upside – 2,500 rushing yards in college (58 rushing yards per game) – in a relatively plus matchup versus a defense that ranks 11th in fantasy points against QBs. More than half of his yardage came after contact (1,352). The former sixth-round pick fights for every single yard, especially near the goal line. He scored 33 rushing touchdowns, 18 of which came on goal-line carries. 
  • The Washington Football Team has faced two mobile QBs this season in Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. Those QBs finished as QB2 and QB8 respectively the weeks they faced the Commanders. The Washington defense is also allowing the league’s highest passing TD rate.
  • Indy’s defense ranks second in RB rushing attempts faced this season, so I’d expect a healthy dosage of Brian Robinson. With him healthy the last two weeks, the Commanders rank 2nd in early-down run rate with a -9% pass rate over expectation.
  • Terry McLaurin went 5-73-1 on 8 targets (25% target share) and continued his high-end target share with Taylor Heinicke at QB from last season. Still, the majority of his production came on a 37-yard-long score. Without that score, just 4 catches for 32 yards. I’d be bearish on McLaurin for the rest of the season for fear that he won’t connect on the long ball from Heinicke – who has traditionally struggled to throw downfield. Not to mention, Curtis Samuel also saw just as many targets but earned them at a higher rate (29% vs 24%). Jahan Dotson also did not play in this game, but will likely return to the lineup at some point, as will tight end Logan Thomas.
  • The Week 8 matchup versus the Colts is also brutal. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season. They also rank No.1 in the fewest fantasy points allowed to slot WRs, which makes Samuel a tough sell as well.

Favorite DFS plays:

  • Commanders DST ($2,600)
  • Colts DST ($3,700)
  • Sam Ehlinger ($4,000)

49ers at Rams

  • Matthew Stafford has averaged 245 passing yards, 1.3 passing TDs and 1.6 interceptions in his last three contests versus the 49ers.
  • Christian McCaffrey totaled 10 touches in his 49ers debut with 8 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 24 yards. He out-touched Jeff Wilson (7 carries for 54 yards) with a 38% opportunity share on a limited snap count (28%, 22 total snaps). Anticipate his role to grow substantially in the next few weeks, especially after the 49ers’ Week 8 bye week.
  • Considering he touched the ball on nearly half of his snaps played, it’s not outlandish to think he can enter the 18-20 range versus the Rams after a full week of practice. It’s a tough matchup, but CMC already faced L.A. earlier this season. He totaled 69 rushing yards on 12 carries (5.3 yards per carry) and caught 7-of-8 balls for 89 receiving yards, finishing the week as the RB9.
  • When the 49ers faced the Rams earlier this season, Jimmy Garoppolo posted a season-low aDOT (6.0), but season high yards per attempt (8.9). Expect plenty of dump-off passes to CMC to allow him to pick up chunk yardage, especially with Deebo Samuel and fullback Kyle Juszczyk out.
  • Start Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo Samuel is out with a nagging hamstring injury and that should benefit Aiyuk’s surging production. Over the last two weeks, Aiyuk leads the 49ers in routes run, targets (25%), and receiving yards (82.5 per game). The matchup versus the Rams is also solid because their defense is more than happy to give up completions, as they are allowing the league’s second-highest completion rate (69.5%). They also rank second in most receiving yards allowed per game to opposing No. 1 WRs (92 yards/game).
  • Top three tight ends in targets per game this season: Travis Kelce (8.6), Mark Andrews (8.4) and Tyler Higbee (8.3). Start Higbee off his bye week.

Favorite DFS plays:

Giants at Seahawks

  • The Giants rank third-worst in run defense EPA and in rushing yards allowed this season.
  • Seattle ranks second in rushing yards allowed.
  • Needless to say, both starting RBs have the chance to run wild in Week 8.
  • Kenneth Walker III‘s salary is too cheap still. 23 carries for 168 rushing yards and two TDs including a 74-yard score in Week 7. He was not targeted, but handled 74% of the backfield’s opportunities, played 73% of the snaps and ran a route on 60% of dropbacks. DeeJay Dallas ran a route on just 33% of dropbacks. Keep playing him.
  • After playing just 23% of the snaps in Week 6, Wan’Dale Robinson‘s usage spiked in Week 7. He ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks, corralling six catches for 50 yards on 8 targets (28% target share). He’s a buy/start across all PPR formats as the Giants No. 1 WR. Seattle ranks No. 1 versus perimeter WRs this season, but 22nd versus slot receivers. 
  • Seahawks rookie CB Coby Bryant ranks top-10 in most receptions, yards and passer rating allowed from the slot this season.

Favorite DFS plays:

Sunday Night Football

Packers at Bills

  • Buffalo has the highest implied team total on the slate, so fire up your Bills.
  • Especially Devin Singletary. The Packers run defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (122) to opposing RBs.
  • And Singletary is a bell cow. Let’s not forget that in Week 6, Singletary posted 17 carries for 85 yards and four catches for 22 yards on 5 targets. 86% snap share, 67% route participation and 92% opportunity share. Zack Moss was inactive and James Cook had 2 carries.
  • Aaron Jones out-touched A.J. Dillon 18-4 in Week 7, by far the biggest gap between the RB duo. Dillon has hit rock bottom in terms of usage and is nothing more than a handcuff to Jones, whose touches and snaps have increased over the last two weeks at the expense of Dillon. He cannot be started versus a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (52) to opposing RBs.
  • Allen Lazard finished second on the team in targets (7, 37% target rate), with 6 catches for 55 yards in Week 7. 6 targets in the first half alone. But left with a shoulder injury. Rookie Romeo Doubs with zero catches on 4 targets despite leading the team in routes run. Woof. He was Out-produced by Sammy Watkins. With Aaron Rodgers foreshadowing a shake up in the WR depth chart based on performance, I’d be terrified to play Doubs for fear his playing time gets cut based on his recent play. Since Week 3, he is PFF’s second-lowest graded WR (52.7) among 95 qualifiers. Christian Watson also has a chance to play, which would likely come at the expense of Doubs.

Monday Night Football

Bengals at Brown

  • The Browns are allowing the league’s second-highest rushing TD rate.
  • The Bengals have allowed 335 rushing yards in their last two games.
  • Both ground games should find success between their top two rushers. However, I wouldn’t start Kareem Hunt.
  • Hunt totaled just six touches and 5 yards in Week 7. Only two targets. But he scored. It was the second straight week where Hunt’s touches have dipped dramatically. An average of 6 touches. It begs the question of whether Hunt might be on the trade block for an RB-needy team. The team is listening to offers. Therefore, he is worth buying on the dirt cheap. At worst you have a high-end handcuff, plus a boost when Deshaun Watson returns. David Njoku being out could also open the target floodgates for Hunt to be more involved as a receiver.
  • Home sweet home. Amari Cooper has been nothing but a certified stud in home games this season. At the Dawg Pound, Cooper has yet to see fewer than 10 targets and he’s scored at least once. On the season, Cooper owns a 27% target share
  • Over the last two weeks, Tyler Boyd has averaged 7 catches for 110 receiving yards on a 19% target share. Start him as a fantasy WR2 with Ja’Marr Chase out. The Browns own the second-worst run defense based on EPA this season allowing a league-high 13 rushing TDs and the fifth-most fantasy points overall to RBs this season. Joe Mixon’s two highest rushing yardage games (Weeks 1 and 5) came in weeks where the Bengals were without a fully healthy Tee Higgins. Could easily see Cincy leaning on the ground game more with Chase out in a super favorable road matchup. Mixon ranks third in the NFL in touches and 8th in carries per game (17). 

Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

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