Matthew Freedman | Thu, Oct 27th 2022, 1:35pm EDT

Fantasy Football Week 8 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 8 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

Thursday: Do first pass of player projections and publish.
Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 8 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 8 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default FantasyPros scoring settings, which are half PPR. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables for the sake of space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Please note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 11 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 8 QB Projections

NFL Week 8 QB Notes

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) at DET: Tagovailoa has seen limited action this year, but he’s No. 3 in AY/A (8.9), QBR (71.8) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.160, per RBs Don’t Matter). The Lions defense is No. 32 in dropback EPA per play (0.247), and the Dolphins have a week-high 27.5-point implied total in our Week 8 DFS cheat sheet.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Andy Dalton (NO) vs. LV: Dalton hasn’t been prolific this year, but he has been adequate (6.9 AY/A, No. 18), especially given that he has been without WRs Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara for some of his four starts. The Saints have averaged 31 points per game with Dalton since Week 4, and the Raiders are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (24.4 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).

Check out my Week 8 early betting breakdown on Saints vs. Raiders.

Sam Ehlinger (IND) vs. WAS: Thanks to former starter Matt Ryan’s post-salary benching, Ehlinger is one of our top Week 8 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Ehlinger was a preseason star in August with 24-of-29 for 289-4-0 passing, and he has the running ability to accumulate fantasy points on the ground (459-2,510-33 rushing in college, excluding sacks). The Commanders are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (15.2%, per Football Outsiders).

NFL Week 8 RB Projections

NFL Week 8 RB Notes

Kenneth Walker (SEA) vs. NYG): Since No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5, Walker has gone off with 366 yards and four touchdowns on 52 carries and three targets. The Seahawks could have a run-heavy game script as home favorites (-160 at PointsBet), and the Giants are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (8.1%).

Travis Etienne (JAX) vs. DEN (in London): The Jaguars just traded away RB James Robinson, so Etienne now has the opportunity to earn a full-time three-down role. Last week, he hit career-high marks with 14 carries, five targets, 119 yards and an 80% snap rate — and he scored his first NFL touchdown.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. CHI: In this initial projections set, I'm assuming that Elliott (knee) will play, but ultimately I expect him to sit, so my Saturday/Sunday update for No. 2 RB Tony Pollard will likely be significant.

D’Onta Foreman (CAR) at ATL: With former No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey traded to the 49ers, Foreman last week led the Panthers backfield with a 54% snap rate and 145 yards on 15 carries and two targets. In his six games last year with 12-plus opportunities, Foreman averaged 100.5 yards (per FTN). Backfield mate Chuba Hubbard (ankle) exited Week 7 early with an injury and might be limited if he plays this week, and the Falcons defense is No. 31 in rush SR (48.4%).

NFL Week 8 WR Projections

NFL Week 8 WR Notes

Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs. SF: Last year Kupp had a position-high 56% boom rate with his Triple Crown 145-1,947-16 receiving performance (per our Boom/Bust Report), and he has continued to dominate in 2022, ranking No. 1 in the league with 12.0 targets per game (per our Weekly Target Report). Kupp has 648 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage on 56 receptions and two carries, and he has either 80 yards or a touchdown in every game. The 49ers are without CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee, IR), and CB Jason Verrett (knee, IR) might not be activated for this game. In his four games against the 49ers since last year, Kupp has averaged 22.9 FPPG (including playoffs). Honestly, this projection for Kupp feels low.

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) at MIN: In his return from suspension last week, Hopkins had 10-103-0 receiving on 14 targets and encouragingly lined up across the formation (26 snaps wide left, 10 in the slot, six wide right). Without No. 2 wide receiver Marquise Brown (leg, IR), Hopkins had a league-high 48.2% target share last week. The Vikings are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (31.3%), and the Cardinals are 15-3-2 ATS as road underdogs with HC Kliff Kingsbury.

Check out my Week 8 early betting breakdown on Cardinals at Vikings.

D.J. Moore (CAR) at ATL: After getting six targets in each of Weeks 1-3, Moore has 36 targets (and three carries) over his past four games. Last week, without No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey and No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson — both of whom were recently traded — Moore had a season-best 7-69-1 receiving on 10 targets. The Falcons are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (38.4 FPPG) and could be without both of their two starting perimeter corners in A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and Casey Hayward (shoulder, IR). We can dream.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) at PHI: The production has underwhelmed (359 yards, zero touchdowns from scrimmage), but Johnson has 67 targets this year (plus five carries) and exactly 10 targets per game since 2020. As big road underdogs (+390 at SugarHouse), the Steelers could have a pass-heavy game script. At some point, targets and receptions turn into yards and touchdowns.

I’m betting over 10.0 points for Johnson in the Week 8 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.

NFL Week 8 TE Projections

NFL Week 8 TE Notes

Zach Ertz (ARI) at MIN: Although Ertz had just four targets last week in No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins’ return, he still out-targeted WRs Rondale Moore (2), Robbie Anderson (1) and Greg Dortch (1). Ertz is No. 1 on the Cardinals in routes (275) and No. 2 in targets (55), receptions (37) and yards receiving (320). He's No. 2 at the position behind only Travis Kelce (15) with 12 red-zone targets (per our Advanced TE Stats Report), and the Vikings are dead last in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (39.9%).

Taysom Hill (NO) vs. LV: Hill isn’t a traditional tight end — he has just 27 routes and two targets on the year — but he gets regular usage each game as a wildcat quarterback, and as such he is 5-of-7 for 86-1-0 passing with 17-160-3 rushing. Hill is 4-of-5 in converting his red-zone carries into touchdowns this year and his upside is too great to ignore during the bye weeks. The Raiders are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (14.0 FPPG).

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

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