Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Teams projected for high Week 1 snap counts

Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy managers should be elated to have the Eagles back from their bye. Philadelphia has been a pace and efficiency monster, ranking first in snaps/60 minutes, second in seconds/snap, and fourth in CER. In addition, they have a favorable matchup against the struggling Steelers. Fresh off of the bye, the Eagles will look to pick back up where they left off and stay atop the NFL in wins. I see no reason why Philly shouldn’t be able to run around 70 plays on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have seen a dramatic change of pace (literally) over the last two weeks. Coming into Week 6, they were averaging just 55.4 snaps/60 minutes. But in their last two games, they have run 66 plays and 63 plays. While these numbers may not be massive for most teams, they are for Seattle. With an 82.1 CER, running around 65 snaps or so is huge. They won’t face much resistance from the New York Giants this week either, who don’t have a good defense. If Seattle can continue to marry their great efficiency with even an above-average pace, their fantasy players will pay massive dividends in Week 8.

Cincinnati Bengals

It’s a breath of fresh air to finally be bullish on the Super Bowl Runner-Ups. Cincinnati now has a 72.8 CER, good enough to place them in the top 10. They also are above the 50th percentile in seconds/snap and snaps/60 minutes. Alongside this, their offense will look to have a field day against Cleveland’s poor defense. It’s not crazy to say that we still haven’t seen the ceiling for this offense. This team will only improve as its reworked offensive line gels. This is a great spot to fire up your Bengals’ skill position players.

Teams projected for low Week 1 snap counts

Green Bay Packers

The Packers like to play slow, but this simply doesn’t work when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders. Green Bay ranks 30th in seconds/snap and right around the league average in CER. To make matters worse, they travel to Buffalo to take on one of the NFL’s best defenses. This Packers offense has had some low lows, but we might be in for an even worse performance on Sunday Night Football. All signs point to a low snap count and poor efficiency for Green Bay in Week 8.

Los Angeles Rams

Like the Packers, Los Angeles likes to play slow and control the game, and while this is great in theory, you cannot do it when you have a 19.7 CER. This offense isn’t good enough to play how they’d like to, and they’re yet to change. Their opponent won’t do them any favors either, as they take on their division rival, the 49ers, owners of a top-ten defense. This game profiles as low scoring and ugly for both teams, but the Rams should see the short end of the stick in terms of plays ran against their familiar foe.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been a goldmine in PPR leagues the last few weeks, thanks to an absurd number of Matt Ryan pass attempts, but it appears those days are gone. In case you missed it, Colts HC Frank Reich announced Monday that Sam Ehlinger will be the starting QB going forward. Historically, we tend to see young and inexperienced QBs not attempt too many passes. Additionally, we could see Indy’s 15.1 CER get even lower if the second-year QB struggles. I’m staying away from Colts’ skill players if I can until we get proof that the passing volume won’t change along with the change at QB.

*Data from the table comes from as follows: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/minutes-played?date=2022-01-10, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2021, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play?date=2022-01-11, https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

Noteworthy Trends

• Jacksonville, a reliable home for fantasy opportunities, should see a decrease in said opportunity this week. They play Denver, who ranks first in EPA/play allowed. I don’t think this is a big enough factor to consider them a team who projects for a low snap count, but I definitely am downgrading all Jags players this week, especially in DFS.
• The Las Vegas Raiders have quietly solidified themselves as one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Maybe this isn’t entirely surprising considering their personnel, but their offense seems to be playing above what anyone could have predicted. They still run a poor pace, but if they get into game scripts where they need to pick up the tempo, this offense could crush in all fantasy formats.
• The Patriots showed on Monday Night that they are not nearly as good as many fans and analysts thought, and my table agrees. They run a very poor pace, and their efficiency is barely above league average. With a lack of explosive talent and two not-very-good QBs (sorry Zappe stans), this isn’t an offense to be optimistic about going forward.

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