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    Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Oct 21st 2022, 6:39am EDT

Fitz’s Week 7 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

This is a tough week for a lot of fantasy managers. Two of the league’s most potent offenses — Buffalo and Philadelphia — are on bye this week. Minnesota is on bye, too, which takes away Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. And the Los Angeles Rams’ bye deprives us of Cooper Kupp for a week. Week 7 will be an interesting test of roster depth for a great many fantasy teams.

Oh, by the way, how about that Christian McCaffrey trade? I’ll address it in the RB section.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

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Dak Prescott will play for the first time since breaking his thumb in Week 1, and he returns to a primo matchup against a Lions defense that has given up 22.9 fantasy points per game to QBs. Play Dak without hesitation.

Also returning to action this week is Tua Tagovailoa, who missed a pair of games due to a concussion. Like Dak, Tua gets a soft matchup in his return. He’ll be facing a Steelers defense that’s been flambeed for 277.8 passing yards per game and 12 TD passes this season. Is it fair to be concerned that Tua might now be more susceptible to a concussion than a quarterback who hasn’t sustained one? Of course. But I’m unsure how to calculate the risk. I’d probably have Tua ranked ahead of Geno Smith if not for concussion worries. But I wouldn’t bench Tua for any quarterback from Tier 4 or Tier 5.

Aaron Rodgers is the QB20 in fantasy scoring, trailing Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson and Jacoby Brissett, among others. I trust the future walk-in Hall-of-Famer to right the ship. Rodgers is in a prime bounce-back spot against Washington, whose defense ranks 19th in DVOA against the pass and has an opponent passer rating of 99.1, sixth-worst in the league.

Jimmy Garoppolo has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of the last two weeks, and there’s a realistic path to another top-10 finish in Week 7. The 49ers’ matchup against the Chiefs has shootout potential, with a Vegas total of 48.5 points. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 15 TD passes and is yielding 286 passing yards per game. Oh, and by the way, Jimmy G might have a new toy to play with this weekend. (More on that in a minute.)

Six weeks of Russell Wilson‘s cooking has put me in the mood for takeout. Russ had a shoulder injury going into Week 6 and came out of the week with a hamstring issue. It’s weird how often Wilson is failing to see open receivers. Something is just … off. I have Wilson ranked QB16. I’m not sure if that constitutes being “out” on him, but I’d really rather not start him this week.

As good as Jared Goff has been this season, this might not be a great week to have him in your lineup. Lions WRs D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds seem unlikely to play, which means Khalif Raymond and Tom Kennedy will be Detroit’s No. 2 and No. 3 receivers behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff and the Lions also have a nightmare matchup against a Dallas defense that leads the league in sacks (24) and pressures (80). The Cowboys have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Two of my favorite deep streamers for Week 7 are Kenny Pickett and Davis Mills. Pickett has three good wide receivers and a plus matchup against a Miami pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and has PFF’s fifth-worst pass coverage grade. Mills faces a Raiders defense that’s giving up a league-worst 25.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACKS

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Tier 6

Let’s not bury the lede; we need to talk about Christian McCaffrey.

If you’re a McCaffrey investor, the trade that sends him to the 49ers is great news — but not for this week. I have no idea what to do with CMC in this week’s rankings. My guess is that he suits up and plays for his new team on Sunday, but probably in a limited role. Maybe 10-15 snaps? NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that McCaffrey might be used exclusively in red-zone packages. McCaffrey is still capable of making hay on reduced snaps. I’m tentatively slotting him at RB26. Jeff Wilson becomes a midrange RB3 for this week, and his value disintegrates next week.

There isn’t that much separating the Tier 2 running backs from the Tier 3 guys. There’s a lot to like about the Tier 3 denizens, but each of them comes with a nagging concern. Nick Chubb and Breece Hall have tricky matchups. Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce play for teams that are fairly heavy underdogs. Jonathan Taylor is coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Joe Mixon has been inefficient. Aaron Jones hasn’t been getting enough touches. And then there’s Rhamondre Stevenson …

Stevenson would be a Tier 2 guy if not for Damien Harris‘ unexpectedly quick recovery from a high-ankle sprain. Harris sustained the injury in Week 5 and sat out last week, but he was a full participant in the Patriots’ Thursday practice. It’s possible Harris doesn’t play after all. Stevenson has to be in your lineup regardless, but a return to something close to a 50/50 workload split would be nettlesome to Stevenson investors, who’ve really cashed in the last two weeks. As for Harris stakeholders, it’s best to wait a week before considering him for your lineup.

Don’t mistake Ezekiel Elliott‘s RB16 ranking for actual enthusiasm. We haven’t reached that point yet. But Zeke did look pretty good against the Eagles in Week 6, and he’s got a cherry matchup against a Lions defense that’s yielding 5.5 yards per carry to running backs and has allowed eight TD runs to RBs in five games.

Najee Harris is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and 3.9 yards per target. Woof. On the bright side, he’s averaging 13.8 carries and has had double-digit carries in every game, and he’s on pace for 40-plus catches. Harris faces Miami this week, and the Dolphins’ run defense has mostly been pretty good except for Week 5, when the Jets had five TD runs against them. But the Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs.

I never know what to tell people who ask for start/sit advice involving Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Workload? He’s had only one game with double-digit carries, but CEH has had at least seven carries in every game, and he’s had at least three catches on 4-of-6 games. Obviously, he’s not a workhorse, but there’s at least a little bit of a touch floor with him. CEH has scored five touchdowns in six games, but he has a brutal matchup against the 49ers, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs.

As my colleague Matthew Freedman noted in his weekly Freedman’s Favorites article, Travis Etienne has out-snapped (93 to 80), out-opportunitied (36 to 33) and outproduced (254 yards to 123) backfield mate James Robinson over the last three weeks. (I can’t take credit for “out-opportunitied” — that’s all Freedman.) I’d prefer Etienne to Robinson both this week and rest of season, but J-Rob is in a decent spot in Week 7. The Jaguars face a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs, giving up 5.5 yards per carry.

Brian Robinson’s comeback from gunshot wounds is inspirational. I’d love to be more excited about him for fantasy, but the Washington offensive line is in rough shape. PFF grades the Commanders 27th in run blocking, and they rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. Washington’s implied Vegas point total for their game against the Packers is 18.5.

The RB situation in Baltimore is hard to read. It seems unlikely that J.K. Dobbins will play after experiencing knee discomfort during Baltimore’s Week 6 game. Dobbins is coming off a major knee injury, and the Ravens will surely be cautious with him. Kenyan Drake, who had 10-119-1 rushing last week, will probably be the lead runner in Week 7. Well, the lead running back – QB Lamar Jackson is usually the lead runner.

The Denver RB situation is darn near inscrutable. Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett benched Melvin Gordon in Week 6 for no apparent reason. If he was going to bench Gordon, you’d think Hackett would have done it during or after the Broncos’ Week 4 loss to the Raiders, when Gordon had a sloppy fumble that was returned for a touchdown, turning the tide in a close game. Latavius Murray got most of the RB touches in the second half of Monday night’s game after Gordon’s benching, but Hackett says Gordon is still the starter. I’m ranking both Gordon and Murray as lower-end RB3s.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Chris Godwin is now squarely back in must-start territory. In Week 6, he had a 34.2% target share and 48.4% of the Buccaneers’ air yards, as noted by my colleague Derek Brown in The Primer. This week vs. Carolina, Godwin will run most of his routes against Panthers slot corner Myles Hartfield, who has yielded a 75% catch rate and an outrageous 133.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage. This is a smash spot for Godwin.

Christian Kirk has been slumping, with only 35 receiving yards in his last two games. But this week against the Giants, Kirk will mostly avoid perimeter CB Adoree Jackson, NYG’s best cover man, and will likely run the majority of his routes against Julian Love, who’s allowed a 71% catch rate on throws into his coverage. It’s a get-right matchup for Kirk.

Both of the Packers’ top two receivers look like good plays this week even though the Green Bay offense has struggled. Allen Lazard has become a TD machine, with 12 touchdowns in his last 15 regular-season games. Rookie WR Romeo Doubs has only topped 50 yards once this season, but he’s averaged 7.3 targets and 4.0 receptions over his last three games, and the matchup against the Commanders is appealing. Washington’s defense ranks 26th in expected points added per passing play. Doubs will run most of his routes against the Commanders’ outside cornerbacks, Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste. PFF has Fuller graded 83rd out of 108 NFL cornerbacks this season, St-Juste 75th.

I hate it when fantasy analysts elevate the top wide receiver from a team with bad wide receivers because: “Who else are they gonna throw to?” And yet I have Robert Wood ranked WR29 for Week 7, because: “Who else are they gonna throw to?”

Rashod Bateman was a hard guy to peg before a foot injury sidelined him for multiple weeks. Now, he goes right back to being hard to peg. Bateman is still ostensibly the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver but not their No. 1 target. (That honor obviously belongs to TE Mark Andrews.) The gap between Bateman and Devin Duvernay might not be as wide as first believed. And while Bateman has had a couple of long touchdowns, he hasn’t drawn a significant number of targets. Basically, he’s been a poor man’s Gabe Davis.

The Jets reportedly may bench Elijah Moore after the second-year receiver requested a trade. The possibility that Moore won’t play this week makes Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis slightly more appealing based on a potential target uptick, but Denver has been a no-fly zone for wide receivers. The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts. They’ve given up only one touchdown to a wide receiver (the 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk in Week 3). I’d be more willing to use Wilson than Davis, who’ll probably see more of Broncos coverage ace Patrick Surtain Jr.

Chase Claypool had a big game last week (7-96-1), but he’s still probably No. 3 in the WR pecking order behind Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Jamming Claypool into your lineup this week — particularly if you didn’t start him last week — seems like a case of chasing last week’s points, which is one of the worst mistakes you can make in fantasy football.

I’m above consensus on Wan’Dale Robinson this week. I have him at WR43. His ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) is WR48. I’m fascinated by his ability to draw targets. Robinson played 15 snaps last week and ran 11 routes, and he still had 3-37-1 on four targets. In his final college season at Kentucky, Robinson’s target share was 39.3%, which is 99th percentile. The Giants, you may have noticed, have a screaming need for a go-to receiver. At 5-8, 185 pounds, Robinson would be an undersized alpha, but he played an alpha receiver role at Kentucky and might reprise that role for his new blue-clad team.

TIGHT ENDS

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Tier 6

After drawing 15 targets in his first three games, Geoge Kittle saw 10 targets against the Falcons last week and turned in an 8-83-0 stat line. Kittle is always on the field for a big percentage of snaps, but his route and target numbers are wildly unpredictable, in large part because Kittle is such a fierce blocker and often has weighty obligations in that department. Last week against Atlanta, Kittle was only required to pass-block on one play. Here’s hoping his pass-blocking obligations continue to be minimal.

As noted earlier, Lions WRs D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds hadn’t practiced this week as of Thursday, and if both of them miss Detroit’s Week 7 game against the Cowboys, T.J. Hockenson could get a bump in targets. Hockenson had an epic 8179-2 performance in Week 4 but then followed it up with a 1-6-0 stink bomb just before the Lions’ Week 6 bye.

The Seahawks are giving up an astonishing 21.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Opposing TEs have ripped Seattle for 430 receiving yards and four TD catches. (And those numbers don’t even reflect the 112 rushing yards and three TD runs that *ahem* “tight end” Taysom Hill had against the Seahawks in Week 5.) Chargers TE Gerald Everett gets to cash in on Seattle’s defensive incompetence this week.

Dalton Schultz‘s sprained PCL is complicating his fantasy value. Under normal circumstances, Schultz would be an appealing asset in a tight TE market — especially with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott now back from a thumb injury. But after a 7-62-0 performance in the Cowboys’ season opener, Schultz has had two receptions in the three games he’s played since, and last week he was only able to play 10 snaps. We need a show-me game from the wounded Schultz before we trust him in our lineups.

Usually, rookie tight ends don’t have much value. But check out all the rookie tight ends who land in TE2 range this week. The Giants’ Daniel Bellinger has drawn 3-5 targets in each of his last four games. The Broncos’ Greg Dulcich made his NFL debut in Week 6 and had a 39-yard TD catch. The Buccaneers’ Cade Otton is expected to take on a bigger role in the short term with Cameron Brate recovering from a sprained neck. And the Commanders’ Cole Turner will get more work with Logan Thomas and John Bates both hurt.


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