Week 7 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 7, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 7 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Marcus Mariota: Mariota has been discount Kyler Murray. Putrid passing stats saved by rushing upside. Mariota is the QB15 in fantasy points per game due to ranking seventh in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. When he takes to the air, he’s 23rd in PFF passing grade, 36th in adjusted completion rate, and ninth-worst in turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Cincinnati has not been kind to quarterbacks. The Bengals have given up the third-lowest success rate per dropback, second-lowest passing touchdown rate, and fourth-lowest yards per attempt. Mariota is a mid-QB2 based on his legs.

Joe Burrow: The Falcon’s pass defense has surrendered the second-highest success rate per dropback and ranks 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in QBR. Atlanta’s struggles to get pressure on the quarterback (32nd in pressure rate) will loom large in Week 7. Burrow has been heating up. Since Week 4, he’s 13th in PFF passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate as the QB3 in fantasy. Start him confidently this week as a QB1.

Jared Goff: Goff might be the QB6 in fantasy points per game, but shootout game scripts and easy matchups, along with ranking fifth in passing touchdowns, have puffed up the perception of his skills. The real truth is that he’s 25th in PFF passing grade, 32nd in adjusted completion rate, and 22nd in time throw (minimum 50 dropbacks). Goff’s internal clock will need to speed up some against the Cowboys this week. Dallas is first in pressure rate while also allowing the fifth-lowest success rate and sixth-lowest EPA per dropback. They have held quarterbacks to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. While Goff is eighth in PFF passing grade and yards per attempt against pressure (minimum 25 pressured dropbacks), this is still an uphill battle for him. He’s a decent QB2 option that could find his way into the top 12 if this game also shoots out.

Matt Ryan: Ryan is a solid QB1 this week. Since Week 4, he’s second in passing attempts, first in passing yards, 15th in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks) as the QB8 in fantasy. This week he gets a cakewalk passing matchup. The Titans have conceded the second-most passing touchdowns, seventh-highest success rate per drop back, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill: Since Week 4, the Colts have morphed from a pass funnel into a run funnel. Over the last three games, they are 13th in pass defense DVOA with the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback and 12th-lowest yards per attempt allowed. Tannehill remains a low-end QB2. You likely have better options to start at this point, even in Superflex leagues. Tannehill is the QB26 in fantasy points per game which unfortunately matches his disappointing metrics. He’s 17th in PFF passing grade and passing touchdowns while sitting at 22nd in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Sit Tannehill if you can.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 7 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Drake London: London has been reduced to WR3 status (WR35 in fantasy points per game) by Atlanta’s run-first offensive approach. His metrics scream stud, but the limited volume (21st in targets) has neutered him. London is fourth in PFF receiving grade and 16th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He’s seen a 32.8% target share (second-best) and 32.3% air yard share. He’ll run about 87% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (40.5% catch rate, 58.1 passer rating) and Eli Apple (64.3% catch rate, 85.9 passer rating).

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase reminded everyone last week that he’s still “THAT DUDE.” He’s quietly now the WR8 in fantasy points per game with continuing elite usage, ranking 12th in target share, 16th in air yard share, and first in red zone targets. Chase is 19th in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). The worry for Chase this week is absorbing shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell. Terrell hasn’t been great overall this season, but in shadow coverage, he has been magnificent. In three shadow matchups, he’s followed D.K. Metcalf, Amari Cooper, and Mike Evans on 76-82% of their routes, limiting them to nine total receptions and 136 receiving yards (zero Tds). Chase remains a WR1 that can overcome tough matchups.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: The last time we saw St. Brown was limping his way to a 32% snap share with six targets and 18 receiving yards as he was gutting it out through an ankle injury. Hopefully, the bye week and therapy have been kind to him, and we see him at 100% coming off the bye. In Weeks 1-3, St. Brown was the WR6 drawing a 28.3% target share (ninth) and ripping off 2.3 yards per route run (14th, minimum ten targets). Despite the missed time, he’s still 20th in red zone targets. St. Brown will run about 66% of his routes inside against Jourdan Lewis (84% catch rate, 113.2 passer rating. His prowess against zone and with the ball in his hands will be needed. Dallas utilizes zone coverage on 71-74% of their snaps with their corners. St. Brown has seen 59% of his target volume against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum five zone targets). He’s also 23rd in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets), taking on a defense that is 12th in YAC allowed and 13th in missed tackles. Assuming health and a full-time role, St. Brown is a WR1.

Alec Pierce: Pierce played a season-high 65% of snaps last week. As good as Pierce has been, the Colts have been reluctant to make him a 90% route run wide receiver as he’s seen a 75% and 69.5% rate over the last two weeks. Pierce’s star is rising, though, as his snaps have crept up in three straight games. He’s finished with at least 61 receiving yards (16.4% target share) or a touchdown in each of his last four games. He’s 28th in yards per route run, immediately behind DeVonta Smith (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 93% of his routes against Mitchell and Fulton. Pierce also leads the team in deep targets (five). Pierce is a WR3 with upside this week.

Allen Lazard: Despite only cresting 50 yards receiving twice, Lazard is the WR20 in fantasy. Why? Touchdowns. Lazard has scored in four of his five games. His peripheral metrics are solid but not outstanding. He’s 33rd in PFF receiving grade and 43rd in yards per route run (78 WRs, minimum 20 targets). Lazard has generated a 19.5% target share (39th) and 37.0% air yard share (12th). He’s 23rd in weighted opportunity (minimum ten targets). Lazard will run about 62% of his routes against Benjamin St.-Juste (48.4% catch rate, 79.8 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (66.7% catch rate, 137.1 passer rating). Lazard is a WR2.

Romeo Doubs: Since assuming a full-time role in the Packer offense (Week 3), Doubs is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He’s handled a 19.6% target share and 22.8% of the team’s air yards. He’s been the short-area weapon for Rodgers (8.6 aDOT). Now that the rookie buzz has died down, we can discuss that Doubs has struggled. He’s 69th in PFF receiving grade and 61st in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). He’s managed four deep targets (51st) and six red zone targets (20th). Doubs is a WR3/4 who will run about 82% of his routes against St.-Juste and Fuller.

Darius Slayton: Over the last two games, Slayton has a 71.4% route run rate with a 19.6% target share (five targets per game) and 35.7% air yard share. He disappeared last week against the Ravens outside corners after a WR22 showing in Week 5. Since Week 5, Slayton has posted a solid 72.1 PFF receiving grade and 2.16 yards per route run, running about 68% of his routes on the perimeter. He’ll match up with Tyson Campbell (60.6% catch rate, 83.9 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (68.8% catch rate, 125.0 passer rating) for most of the day as an upside WR4.

Wan’Dale Robinson: In his first action since Week1, Robinson played 22.6% of the snaps drawing four targets which he turned into three receptions and 37 receiving yards (one score). He only ran 11 routes (34.4% route run rate). He split the slot role with Richie James. His usage may bump up this week, but until it does, I’m not starting him. It’s too risky to drop a player with a limited snap role into your flex. If he didn’t get into the end zone last week, this wouldn’t even be a conversation for Week 7.

Christian Kirk: Kirk has seen his production fall apart with Lawrence pigeonholed into a game manager role. He hasn’t recorded a game with a PFF receiving grade over 65.0 since Week 3. Over the last two games, he has only managed 0.23 and 0.86 yards per route run. He’s dipped to 36th in yards per route run playing from the slot on 73.3% of his snaps. After piling up seven red zone targets in Weeks 1-3, he has only one since Week 4. Overall he has a 22.6% target share and 26.1% of the team’s air yards. He’ll match up with Julian Love (70.6% catch rate, 88.6 passer rating) and Dane Belton (45.5% catch rate, 68.8 passer rating) inside for most of the day as a low-end WR2.

Zay Jones: Zay Jones is a dicey WR5/6 this week. Over the last two weeks, he’s seen a 19.4% target share (6.5 targets per game) which has only produced 32.5 receiving yards per game and 0.94 yards per route run. The Jaguars’ offensive attack plan has hurt Jones from a raw volume standpoint, but his production hasn’t been there either, with only two weeks as a WR3 or better. With Zay Jones running about 67% of his routes on the perimeter, he could draw shadow coverage from Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson has shadowed three times this season following Robert Woods, Robbie Anderson, and CeeDee Lamb on 65-91% of their routes, limiting them to eight targets and 57 total receiving yards (one score).

Week 7 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Tyler Allgeier: Since assuming the starting role, Allgeier has averaged 14 touches and 48 total yards. Despite a 67.3% route run rate, he’s earned nothing through the air. Allgeier’s value is early down dependent. Among 61 running backs with at least 20 carries, Allgeier is 26th in yards after contact per attempt and 39th in PFF’s elusive rating. The matchup on the ground is a good one for him this week to retain RB3 value. The Bengals’ run defense has fallen off the map since Week 4. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed 5.56 yards per carry collectively to Raheem Mostert, Kenyan Drake, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram. Overall in this three-game span, they are 11th in yards per carry with the fifth-highest rushing success rate and eighth-highest rush EPA allowed. If Allgeier gets his usual 12-15 touches and gets in the end zone, he’ll likely end up as a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3.

Caleb Huntley: Huntley is a similar story to Allgeier. Over the last two games, Huntley has averaged 12 carries and 46.5 yards. The main difference between the two backs is Allgeier is running routes despite not drawing any targets. Huntley isn’t involved in the passing game, but his red zone usage has exceeded Allgeier’s. Huntley’s rushing efficiency is a watered-down of Allgeier’s, as he ranks 35th in yards after contact per attempt and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating in the same sample of backs. Allgeier is a low-end touchdown or bust flex.

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.3 touches and 82.6 total yards. He’s been one of the most inefficient rushers thus far, and it hasn’t mattered because of his high-value touch usage. He’s tied with Fournette for the most high-value touches among running backs. He’s third in carries inside the five-yard line. This week’s matchup should help Mixon’s numbers. The Falcons have been unable to stop opposing rushing attacks. They are second in rush success rate and ninth in rush EPA. Atlanta also sits at 29th in adjusted line yards, and 22nd in second-level yards conceded. Mixon can also put his 14.2% target share (11th) to good use against a defense that’s sixth in receptions and 10th in receiving yards surrendered to backs. Mixon is an RB1.

Aaron Jones: In Week 6, the Packers backfield reverted to a near-even split. While Jones was on the wrong side of the early down work (45% vs. 50%), he still held the upper hand in routes (55.1% vs. 38.8%). At this point in the season, Matt LaFleur’s usage of this backfield is almost comical. If the Packers want to cure part of what ails them, Jones should be running as the majority leader of this department. Jones remains one of the best runners in the NFL, ranking tenth in yards after contact per attempt and PFF’s elusive rating. He’s the RB19 averaging 14.5 touches and 88.7 total yards. Jones is 13th in yards created per touch and top-seven in breakaway runs and breakaway run rate. Washington looks like a tough on-paper matchup for Jones as they have limited the opposition to the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, seventh-lowest rush EPA, and are top 12 in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. If Jones threads the needle with his explosive ability, he could shock everyone with a wonderful week. Washington is also 24th in rushing yards allowed per game, which can be traced to their 26th ranking in open field yards. Jones remains a top-15 back.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is the RB39 in fantasy points per game with four top 36 weeks (RB9, RB35, RB33, RB22). He’s averaged a similar volume to Jones (14.4 touches, 61 yards), but hasn’t done nearly enough with it. He’s the RB22 in expected fantasy points per game, but with his efficiency metrics, it’s easy to see how he’s underperforming. Dillon is 44th in yards created per touch, 26th in juke rate, and 49th in breakaway run rate. He’s only 42nd in yards after contact per attempt and 55th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Dillon is an RB3 that likely disappoints this week.

Brian Robinson: Robinson got the start in his second game back, playing 47% of the snaps with 17 carries and 60 rushing yards. Robinson handled all of the red zone work but sadly didn’t run a route. The Commanders bumped up his usage a good bit after only playing 29% of the snaps in Week 5. He played much better last week than in his first game, with 2.59 yards after contact per attempt and a 45.7 elusive rating (per PFF). Overall this season, these numbers aren’t great, as they would rank 54th and 43rd out of 70 running backs with at least 15 carries, but it’s a big improvement. Green Bay is a smash matchup for Robinson. They have allowed the highest rush success rate in the NFL. The Packers are also 27th in rushing yards per game, 31st in explosive run rate, and 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. With zero role in the passing game to this point, Robinson is in danger of getting game scripted out this Week, but if Washington can remain close, he could be an RB3 that finishes top 24 (if he gets in the end zone).

Leonard Fournette: Fournette has been a high-value touch machine as the RB6 in fantasy. He’s sixth in opportunity share and third in weighted opportunity averaging 21.1 touches and 95.9 total yards. While he hasn’t been a big play breaker (43rd in breakaway run rate), he’s been effective. Fournette is 26th in yards created per touch, sixth in evaded tackles, and 19th in juke rate. Fournette is a locked-in RB1 against a beatable Panthers defense. Carolina is 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in explosive run rate, and 25th in DVOA (ninth-highest yards per reception) against receiving backs.

Rachaad White: White remains a high-end stash/low-end PPR flex. Since his emergence over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 7.7 touches and 40.4 total yards (4.3 targets per game). He has finished as the RB18, RB41, and RB38. If you’re strapped because of bye weeks, you’re playing him for his pass game role because he’s still one of the worst rushers in the NFL. Among all running backs with 15 or more carries (70), White is ranked dead last in yards after contact per attempt and 68th in PFF’s elusive rating. White does carry some red zone equity. If he spikes it for six points, he’ll be inside the top 24-30 running backs with his usual volume.

D’Onta Foreman: After the trade of Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, the hot-button question is, “who will be the running back to target here?” My answer is…shoulder shrug. The interim head coach has said it will be a hot-hand situation. The reality is that usage here could be variable in-game or week-to-week. Yes, the Panthers added Foreman last offseason after Hubbard’s ineffectiveness in 2021, but we’re guessing on how much involvement the front office versus Matt Rhule had in that decision. With Rhule gone, all cards are off the table. The 2022 samples for each back are small, so take this data with a grain of salt. We have much larger sets to work with for each player in 2021. From that, Foreman was better than Hubbard by a mile. Foreman was 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). He also bested Hubbard in yards per route run and pass-blocking grade. Foreman was seventh in yards per route run among all running backs with at least ten targets. Foreman is a low-floor RB3 in a terrible matchup. The Buccaneers are a tough defense, so don’t expect sexy stat lines. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-highest rush success rate, but they have also held opposing offenses to the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and are 14th in rushing yards per game. These backs will also have an uphill battle in the passing game. Tampa Bay is second in DVOA, conceding the lowest yards per reception and third-fewest receptions per game.

Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard’s numbers from last season aren’t as good as Foreman’s, but he’s not a total scrub. He’s a different type of rusher. He isn’t a prolific tackle breaker but more of a runway back with breakaway speed. Hubbard was 39th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in breakaway rate, and 41st in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). He logged seven games last year in which he played at least 50% of the snaps. He was a top 36 running back in fantasy in 85.7% of games and an RB2 or better 57.1% of the time. Hubbard is a desperation flex that’s better off avoided this week.

Week 7 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Robert Tonyan: In Weeks 1-5, Tonyan had a 12.2% target share with a mediocre 53.3% route run rate. Last week those numbers increased to 27.3% and 75.5%. Could this be the beginning of heavier usage from Green Bay? Possibly. It could also be an anomaly. Only time will tell. After last week’s explosion, Tonyan is the TE11 overall, more of a reflection of the position. That’s only his second game this season inside the top 12 in weekly fantasy scoring. Tonyan has seen fruitful usage in the red zone with five targets (eighth). He’s 11th in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). The matchup is ok, with Washington ranking 21st in DVOA with the 12th-highest yards per reception but second-lowest catch rate and only one receiving touchdown allowed. Tonyan is a borderline TE1.

Daniel Bellinger: After playing a part-time role for much of the season, Bellinger saw his snap rate jump to 96.8% and his route run rate climb to 81.2%. He drew a 20% target share with an end zone target and 1.46 yards per route run. Overall this season, he’s fourth in PFF receiving grade, 13th in yards per route run, and fourth in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA and sixth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Bellinger is a TE1/high-end TE2.

Evan Engram: Engram has bumbled and stumbled his way to TE19 in fantasy points per game despite ranking 11th in target share, 13th in route participation, 11th in routes run, and sixth in deep targets. The sad thing is that his athleticism doesn’t translate to being good as a tight end. He’s 26th in PFF receiving grade, 20th in yards per route run, and 18th in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets). New York is a decent matchup for Engram to retain low-end TE1/TE2 status. The Giants have allowed the 11th-highest catch rate, fourth-most receptions, and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Greg Dulcich: In his first NFL game, Dulcich saw a 12% target share playing 71% of the snaps with a 79.4% route run rate. He secured two of his three targets with 44 receiving yards and a score. The Jets have allowed the 11th-highest yards per reception and seventh-highest receiving yards per game (zero tds) to tight ends. Dulcich is a high-end TE2 who could sneak into the top 12 this week.

Gerald Everett: Everett has been a trusted weapon for Herbert, with a 15.1% target share (13th) and five red zone targets (eighth). He’s the TE10 in fantasy with the sixth-most routes run. Everett is 13th in PFF receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run, and 17th in YAC per reception. He should be peppered this week. Seattle is 30th in DVOA against tight ends, with the highest yards per reception allowed. They are also second in receiving yards and third in touchdowns allowed. Everett is a top-five tight end this week.

Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth is quietly having a breakout season as the TE9 in fantasy points per game. He’s ninth in target share, seventh in target per route run rate, and fifth in air yard share. He leads all tight ends with seven deep targets while sitting at 15th in red zone looks. Freiermuth ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum ten targets). He gets a solid matchup against Miami, who is 25th in DVOA while ranking 13th in receiving yards and first in catch rate allowed. Freiermuth is a top-ten tight end.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki is coming off a big game, but this isn’t a week to go back to him if you have better options. He’s seen his involvement in the offense tick up, with a 12.3% target share and 67.9% route run rate over the last three games (three red zone targets). Over that stretch, his efficiency has still been uninspiring, with 1.37 yards per route run. He’s a TE2 this week against a Steelers defense that’s a longstanding no-fly zone for tight ends. They are fourth in DVOA with the eighth-lowest catch rate and only one touchdown allowed.

Cole Kmet: The Cole Kmet experiment isn’t worth bothering with this week. Not against New England, who is fifth in DVOA against the position allowing the 13th-lowest receiving yards and fifth-lowest catch rate. Kmet has surpassed 20 receiving yards only twice this season.

Hunter Henry: Henry has now stacked three consecutive weeks above 80% snaps. Since Week 4, he’s seen a 22.2% target share (5.3 targets per game) with a 71.1% route run rate, 2.17 yards per route run, and four red zone targets. Chicago is 19th in DVOA against tight ends ranking 21st in yards per reception and 25th in receiving yards allowed. Henry is a low-end streaming option / TE2.

Week 7 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 7 K Start/Sit Grades