This recurring pseudo-start/sit article focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Always start your studs, as the elite players will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances. You can ask me start/sit questions on Twitter.
According to reports, scoring is down in the NFL by about 22% from last year, equating to fewer fantasy points. That might explain why many players seem to be underperforming. With so many injuries, BYES, and QB Patrick Mahomes‘ ball distribution watering down the value of his receivers, getting 10 points from a player can feel like a small victory. The struggle is real. Here are some start/sit suggestions that hopefully help optimize your lineups this week.
Safest Starts
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
Michael Gallup hasn’t looked up to speed since returning from his ACL injury, but this could be a get-right game for him and the Dallas offense on Sunday. Against the Philadelphia Eagles, Gallup only caught two of seven targets, but he’ll face a weaker Lions defense, and QB Dak Prescott should be back under center. He could also see an increased workload with CeeDee Lamb and TE Dalton Schultz dealing with injuries.
Robert Tonyan (TE – GB)
Robert Tonyan is coming off his best outing this season, gaining 90 yards on 10 catches. With Randall Cobb knocked out of the game with an ankle injury, Tonyan became QB Aaron Rodgers‘ go-to. Despite Sammy Watkins‘ return, he could see an increased workload in the interim. While the Washington Commanders haven’t given up much production to TEs to date, they allow the sixth-most points to receivers. Tonyan is an excellent play in an exploitable matchup in this economy of injuries and BYES. He should yield double-digit fantasy points.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Even though Tony Pollard is more efficient at this point in their careers, Ezekiel Elliott remains the workhorse back in Dallas. Zeke had his best game of the season against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, tallying 81 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. He also added a catch on a lone target for five yards. While Pollard caps his upside, Zeke could eat again this week. Detroit’s defense is reeling, ceding a league-worst 34 points a game. In particular, they have been getting gashed on the ground, surrendering the second-most points to runners this season. The game script should also be favorable for Elliott in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Riskiest Starts
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t been cooking lately, affecting Courtland Sutton’s value. Sutton caught two passes on a season-low three targets in the loss against the Los Angeles Chargers. Wilson only completed 15 passes on 28 attempts in the game. Wilson may now be playing hurt, and their backfield is in shambles. To make matters worse, Sutton will face standout rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner periodically throughout the game. Sauce has been stifling the league’s top receivers. Sutton will be an even dicer play if QB Brett Rypien is under center.
Sauce Gardner is allowing a 19.5 passer rating in single coverage this season ?
That is the lowest among all defenders 25 & under ? pic.twitter.com/PvtNaqkSsv
— PFF (@PFF) October 20, 2022
Since he’s wearing a Packers’ cheesehead, should we call him Queso Sauce?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
After a solid start to the season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been very disappointing for fantasy the last couple of weeks. He struggled to find running room in Sunday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, only rushing the ball nine times for 33 yards. Even more disconcerting, he didn’t receive a single target in the passing game. A bit of a down game against one of the NFL’s best run defenses is understandable, but he has now put up back-to-back duds. With double-digit carries in just one game this season and only six passing targets over the last three outings, he’s becoming very touchdown dependent. Even with San Francisco’s defense banged up, it’ll be another tall order for CEH as they allow the second-fewest fantasy points to runners.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE)
Jakobi Meyers typically provides a solid floor in PPR leagues due to the sheer number of targets he receives. However, with a knee issue and QB Bailey Zappe at the helm against the Cleveland Browns, he was only targeted four times, which was fifth on the team. Meyers was a full participant in practice mid-week but now faces a Chicago defense that allows the fourth-fewest points to receivers. The Patriots could also lean on the ground game as the Bears are more susceptible to the run.
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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile and find her on Twitter @FantasyQueenB.
