Matthew Freedman’s Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings & Start/Sit Lineup Advice (2022)

Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week 7. You can find our expert consensus fantasy football rankings for the week here. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings, and analysis. You can check out all of my favorite players of the week here.

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. PIT: Dolphins -7 | 44.5 O/U

Tagovailoa has seen limited action this year, but he’s No. 1 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.188).
Tagovailoa (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and appears ready to play in Week 7.
Tagovailoa is 10-3 ATS at home.

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

Since joining the 49ers in 2017, Garoppolo is No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.135) — behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.176), Drew Brees (0.166), Deshaun Watson (0.144) and Philip Rivers (0.136).
For his career, Garoppolo is 16-4 ATS as an underdog.
The Chiefs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (22.1 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).

Matt Ryan (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

In Week 6, Ryan looked the best he ever has in Indianapolis with 42-of-58 for 389-3-0 passing.
Ryan is No. 1 with 170 completions and No. 2 with 253 pass attempts and 1,765 yards passing.
The Titans defense is No. 28 in dropback EPA per play (0.167).
Against the Titans in Week 4, Ryan had 356 yards and two touchdowns passing to one interception with a 73.0% completion rate and 9.5 AY/A.

I've been waiting for the Colts to have adequate pass protection so we could really judge what Matt Ryan can do.

They had it today. Here were his stats:

58 attempts
42 completions (Colts record)
389 yards
3 touchdowns
0 turnovers
107.6 rating
Game-winning drive

— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) October 17, 2022

Andy Dalton (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

Dalton hasn’t been prolific this year, but he has been adequate (No. 13 with 7.1 AY/A), especially given that he has been without WRs Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave and RB Alvin Kamara for some of his three starts.
The Saints have averaged 30 points per game with Dalton since Week 4.
The Cardinals defense is No. 32 in dropback SR (53.4%).
Road underdogs are 4-11 ATS against the Cardinals under HC Kliff Kingsbury.
If starter Jameis Winston (back, ankle) returns to the lineup, I will likely be high on him, although I’m skeptical that he will play given the short turnaround to Thursday Night Football.

Check out my Week 7 early betting breakdown on Saints at Cardinals.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT) at MIA: Steelers +7 | 44.5 O/U

Trubisky looked good last week as the in-game injury fill-in with 144-1-0 passing on 12 attempts, and rookie starter Kenny Pickett (concussion) is uncertain to return to action this week.
The Dolphins are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (32.3%).

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. DET: Cowboys -7 | 48 O/U

As meh-tacular as Elliott has looked this year (418 yards, two touchdowns), he still has had 12-plus opportunities in every game.
The Cowboys could rely heavily on the run as big home favorites (-335 at UniBet).
The Lions defense is No. 31 in rush EPA per play (0.107) and rush DVOA (13.7%).

David Montgomery (CHI) at NE: Bears +8 | 39.5 O/U

In his four full games this year, Montgomery has 59-235-1 rushing and 10-113-0 receiving on 11 targets.
The Patriots defense is No. 28 in pass DVOA against running backs (28.7%) and No. 30 in rush SR (47.9%).

Jeff Wilson (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) is out, and Wilson has 72-378-2 rushing and 6-62-0 receiving on seven targets over the past five weeks in his place.
In his 14 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Wilson has averaged 16.6 FPPG.
The Chiefs are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields (23.4 FPPG).

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper (CLE) at BAL: Browns +6.5 | 46.5 O/U

In his four games with 10-plus targets this year, Cooper has 27-322-4 receiving.
As big road underdogs (+230 at SugarHouse), the Browns could have a pass-heavy game script.
The Ravens are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.8 FPPG).

Brandin Cooks (HOU) at LV: Texans +7 | 45.5 O/U

Since QB Davis Mills returned to the starting lineup last year in Week 14, Cooks has averaged 8.7 targets per game: If that’s not good enough for you, let me know now so we can end this relationship before it gets serious.
The Raiders defense is No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.199).

Allen Lazard (GB) at WAS: Packers -5.5 | 41.5 O/U

Lazard has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year.
The Commanders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.8 FPPG).

allen lazard is underrated pic.twitter.com/b4qJwuUXi7

— WinksTape (@WinksTape) October 18, 2022

Terry McLaurin (WAS) vs. GB: Commanders +5.5 | 41.5 O/U

McLaurin has disappointed with just 22-367-1 receiving on 37 targets, but he might fare better with backup QB Taylor Heinicke than starter Carson Wentz (finger).
In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin has 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
The Packers are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (28.8%).

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) vs. KC: 49ers +3 | 48.5 O/U

The 49ers could have a pass-leaning game script as underdogs, and in the team’s two non-weather losses Aiyuk has turned 19 targets into 11-122-3 receiving.
The Chiefs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (33.9 FPPG).

Romeo Doubs (GB) at WAS: Packers -5.5 | 41.5 O/U

Since becoming a starter in Week 3, Doubs has averaged a 92% snap rate and garnered 30 targets in four games.
Doubs could see even more usage this week without slot WR Randall Cobb (ankle).
The Commanders are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (41.7%).

Chris Olave (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

Olave (concussion) missed last week, but he has cleared the protocol and could see extra targets on Thursday Night Football without WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Keith Kirkwood (ankle) and Deonte Harty (toe, IR) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), not one of whom has practiced this week.
Despite leaving Week 5 early with injury, Olave had 8-121-2 receiving on 13 targets in Thomas’ absence in Weeks 4-5.
With his 8.4 target per game and high 17.7-yard average depth of target, Olave has an elite ceiling.

NFL Leaders in AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch) per game (Weeks 1-6):

1. Olave: 158
2. Tyreek: 154
3. Davante: 146
4. Diggs: 144.8
5. Kupp: 141
6. Hollywood: 138
7. Ja'Marr: 132
8T. Jefferson: 130
8T. Sutton: 130
10. Andrews: 126.5
11. Big Mike: 126
12. Waddle: 124

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 19, 2022

D.J. Moore (CAR) vs. TB: Panthers -11 | 40.5 O/U

Haha, just joking …
That said, the Panthers have made a concerted effort to get Moore the ball over the past three weeks (26 targets, two carries), and he could have even more usage following the trade of No. 2 WR Robbie Anderson.
I hate myself.

Robert Woods (TEN) vs. IND: Titans -2.5 | 42.5 O/U

In each of his past three games, Woods has progressively played a season-high snap rate (72%, 76%, 84%), which he has leveraged into 12-152-1 receiving on 21 targets.
The Colts are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (27.5%).

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

Hill isn’t a traditional tight end — he has just 18 routes and one target on the year — but he gets regular usage each game as a wildcat quarterback, and as such he is 3-of-5 for 38-1-0 passing with 26-267-5 rushing.
Hill leads the Saints with fig4 carries inside the 20-yard line and three carries inside the 10.
Especially in the bye weeks, Hill’s upside is too great to ignore.
The Cardinals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (15.2 FPPG).

Hayden Hurst (CIN) vs. ATL: Bengals -6 | 47.5 O/U

“How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”
The Falcons are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (13.7 FPPG).

Mo Alie-Cox (IND) at TEN: Colts +2.5 | 42.5 O/U

In the words of George Michael, “Teacher, there are things that I don’t want to learn” … actually, that’s not it … here we go: “I gotta have faith.”
Cox had a season-low 35% snap rate and zero targets last week … so, as unintuitive as this sounds … it feels like it’s time for a big game.
Cox had season-high marks with 6-85-2 receiving, six targets and a 70% snap rate against the Titans in Week 4.
The Titans are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (36.8%).
When I search “Mo Alie-Cox” on Twitter, one of the first tweets that pops up is a transaction notice from a no-followers bot for a random league announcing that Alie-Cox has been released — and if that’s not a “buy low” sign I don’t know what is.

Mo Alie-Cox has been waived.

— OFL BOT (@ofl_bot) October 19, 2022

Juwan Johnson (NO) at ARI: Saints +1.5 | 45 O/U

A second Saints tight end? Yes, it’s the bye weeks.
Johnson leads the Saints with 152 routes, and he could see extra targets on Thursday Night Football without WRs Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Keith Kirkwood (ankle) and Deonte Harty (toe, IR) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle), not one of whom has practiced this week.
The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (28.8%).

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