In this piece are my personal NFL Week 7 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player … unless I missed one here or there. It happens.
This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.
- Thursday: Do first pass of player projections in the afternoon and publish.
- Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections, check out our official Week 7 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.
While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.
- My Week 7 Favorites
- My Week 7 Player Rankings
- Our Week 7 Expert Consensus Rankings
- Our Start/Sit Tool
NFL Week 7 Player Projections
My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default FantasyPros scoring settings, which are half PPR. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables for the sake of space.
Following my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.
Please note that my projections differ from my rankings, as I create them via two different processes. My rankings are much more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 8 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. I have a process that I think works.
My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast the median, and that’s all.
NFL Week 7 QB Projections
NFL Week 7 QB Notes
Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. CLE: With both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on bye, Jackson is the easy No. 1 player in my QB ranks this week. Jackson has an elevated Konami Code floor thanks to his position-high 451 yards rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report). Facing the Browns, Jackson has literally a five-star matchup.
Check out my Week 7 projected spreads and best bets piece, which breaks down the Ravens-Browns game.
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. ATL: I'm a little surprised that my projections have Burrow ahead of Kyler Murray -- but I do like Burrow a lot and might move him up my rankings. In Week 6, Burrow lit up our Game Day app with a league-high 32.5 fantasy points on 28-of-37 for 300-3-0 passing and 4-25-1 rushing. The Falcons defense is No. 31 in dropback SR (53.1%).
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. PIT: I'm higher on Tagovailoa in my rankings. He has seen limited action this year, but he's No. 1 in AY/A (9.2) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.188). Tagovailoa is 10-3 against the spread at home. I think he goes off in this spot against a Steelers defense dealing with injuries.
NFL Week 7 RB Projections
NFL Week 7 RB Notes
Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. SEA: Last week, Ekeler was the No. 1 back in my projections, and I like him again this week. He underwhelmed in Weeks 1-3, but he went off in Weeks 4-6 (league-high 28.4 FPPG, per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report), and for the year he has 610 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage. Ekeler led all players in Week 6 with 16 targets, and for the year he leads all running backs with 49 (per our Weekly Target Report). The Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (37.0%).
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. IND: I really like Henry this week. After having just 107 yards and a touchdown on "only" 34 carries and a target in Weeks 1-2, Henry exploded in Weeks 3-5 with 422 yards and four touchdowns on 70 carries and an intriguing 13 targets - and now he should be rested off the Week 6 bye. The Titans could have a run-heavy game script as home favorites (-140 at DraftKings). The Colts might be without LB Shaquille Leonard (concussion, nose, back) and EDGE Kwity Paye (ankle), neither of whom practiced nor played last week. Henry had 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and five targets against the Colts in Week 4, and last year he had 214 yards against them on 56 carries and three targets in two games.
Kenneth Walker (SEA) at LAC: No. 1 RB Rashaad Penny (leg, IR) is out, as is pass-catching RB Travis Homer (ribs, IR), and in their absence Walker last week had 21-97-1 rushing and 2-13-0 receiving on three targets with a nice career-high 69% snap rate in his first NFL start. The Chargers defense is No. 28 in rush EPA per play (0.035).
NFL Week 7 WR Projections
NFL Week 7 WR Notes
Davante Adams (LV) vs. HOU: Adams frustrated in Weeks 2-3 with just 48 yards on seven receptions, but he has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game and is tied for No. 2 in the league with 10.8 targets per game. With the exception of the Bears - who don't really have a passing game - every team to play the Texans has seen one of its perimeter wide receivers go off with double-digit targets.
Michael Pittman (IND) at TEN: Pittman has just one touchdown on the year - but he also has 417 yards on 52 targets in five games. Over the past two weeks, Pittman has a position-high 99% snap rate. The Titans are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (18.1%).
Brandin Cooks (HOU) at LV: Since QB Davis Mills returned to the starting lineup last year in Week 14, Cooks has averaged 8.7 targets per game: If that's not good enough for you, let me know now so we can end this relationship before it gets serious. The Raiders defense is No. 31 in dropback EPA per play (0.199).
Romeo Doubs (GB) at WAS: Since becoming a starter in Week 3, Doubs has averaged a 92% snap rate and garnered 30 targets in four games. Doubs could see even more usage this week without slot WR Randall Cobb (ankle). The Commanders are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (41.7%).
NFL Week 7 TE Projections
NFL Week 7 TE Notes
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. CLE: Andrews is No. 1 among all tight ends with 455 yards receiving, 22 receptions of 10-plus yards, 57 targets and a 33.1% target share (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). In two games against the Browns last year, Andrews had 15-180-2 receiving on 21 targets.
David Njoku (CLE) at BAL: After a disappointing Weeks 1-2 (39 scoreless yards, six targets), Njoku has gone off over the past month with 23-308-1 receiving on 29 targets. The Ravens could struggle to contain Njoku without S Marcus Williams (wrist, IR).
Taysom Hill (NO) at ARI: Hill isn't a traditional tight end - he has just 18 routes and one target on the year - but he gets regular usage each game as a wildcat quarterback, and as such he is 3-of-5 for 38-1-0 passing with 26-267-5 rushing. Hill leads the Saints with five carries inside the 20-yard line and three carries inside the 10. Especially in the bye weeks, Hill's upside is too great to ignore. The Cardinals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (15.2 FPPG).
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