Fitz’s Week 6 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

Fitz’s Week 6 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2022 Fantasy Football)

The bye weeks are here. Hello, darkness, my old friend.

The byes can be disruptive, sending you into the dimly lit, cobweb-filled corners of your roster with a flashlight. I avoid going into the attic of my house as much as possible; I’m going up to the attic to look for Week 6 starters.

But the skillful and (let’s be honest) fortunate fantasy managers with deep rosters can really clean up in the bye weeks, taking advantage of opponents with flimsy, fragile rosters.

Use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions in the first bye week of 2022. I’ll also offer thoughts on some interesting cases.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

Check out Fitz’s quarterback rankings here partner-arrow

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Tier 5

“It gets late early out there.”

This Yogi Berra quote is an apt way to describe the QB position in 2022; just replace “late” with “ugly.” There are five quarterbacks I feel good about for Week 6, then six I feel OK about. In a 12-team league, at least one team is going seat-less in this week’s game of QB musical chairs.

How wild is it that Geno Smith is now being ranked in QB1 range every week and nobody bats an eye? Remarkably, Smith threw 30 passes in Week 4 and only 25 passes in Week 5, and he still finished QB2 and QB4 in fantasy scoring those weeks. He’s a plug-and-play Week 6 starter against an Arizona defense that’s given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

The inclusion of Aaron Rodgers in my QB circle of trust might raise a few eyebrows since he’s currently QB19 in fantasy scoring. Rodgers has thrown two TD passes in each of his last four games, and he’s thrown multiple TD passes in 10 of his last 11 regular-season games at Lambeau Field. Also, he’s Aaron Rodgers. He’s good at football. Sorry for such a facile bit of analysis, but sometimes we overcomplicate things. Will Aaron Rodgers finish the season QB19 or worse? His wide receivers aren’t very good, so maybe it could happen, but I’m betting against it. I had him QB11 in my preseason rankings, two spots below consensus, so it’s not like I’m irrationally high on him. I just think you can start Rodgers more confidently that you can start …

Russell Wilson. *sigh* The veteran quarterback hasn’t been the panacea the Broncos hoped he’d be. Wilson ranks 22nd in passer rating, 26th in QBR. He has as many TD passes (4) as Cooper Rush. He doesn’t look as nimble as he once was, and he recently had an injection to relieve pain in his throwing shoulder. Ranking him QB12 almost seems overly generous, but look at who’s below him. Wilson’s two best games this season have been on the road — at Seattle in Week 1, at Las Vegas in Week 4 — and the hope is that he’ll get into a shootout with Justin Herbert Monday night in L.A.

Fantas Football Start-Sit Assistant

RUNNING BACKS

Check out Fitz’s running back rankings here partner-arrow

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Tier 6

There’s usually no need to discuss the Tier 1 running backs, but we have to talk about Rhamondre Stevenson‘s rapid ascension from guy you could potentially start to guy you’re excited to start. Obviously, the Damien Harris hamstring injury has a lot to do with the Stevenson rocket ride. (Note: Harris was listed as a limited practice participant Wednesday and Thursday but is highly unlikely to play this week.) But Stevenson’s run-catch versatility is a big plus. He’s a 230-pound bruiser with the sure hands and quick feet of a scatback. It’s also strangely advantageous that the Patriots aren’t strong at quarterback because they have enthusiastically embraced the running game. New England is one of seven teams to have run more than it has passed this season. It’s a safe bet that the Patriots will continue to be run-heavy this week against a Browns defense that has been gashed for 440 rushing yards over the last two weeks.

Ken Walker is another rapid riser. Rashaad Penny‘s season-ending leg injury propels Walker, the second running back taken in this year’s NFL Draft, into low-end RB1/high-end RB2 range. This is a marriage of talent and opportunity. Walker is now the lead back in a surprisingly effective Seattle offense that ranks No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. PlayerProfiler.com’s closest comp for Walker is LaDainian Tomlinson. (Insert eyes emoji here.) In a Cardinals-Seahawks game that has a Vegas total of 50.5 points (the second-highest total on the board this week, Walker is a sexy fantasy option.

As of Thursday, neither James Conner (ribs) nor Darrel Williams (knee) had practiced for the Cardinals. If both are out, Eno Benjamin becomes an appealing midrange RB2. He faces a Seattle defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs.

I’m below consensus on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Most CEH investors have little choice but to start him. I’m concerned that he’s had double-digit carries just once and that he’s played only nine more snaps than Jerick McKinnon this season. Edwards-Helaire is the RB9 in half-PPR fantasy scoring because he’s scored five TDs in five games. But if he doesn’t find the end zone, he might disappoint stakeholders against a Bills defense that has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs.

I may have too big a gap between Jaguars RBs James Robinson and Travis Etienne. Robinson is the RB15 in half-PPR fantasy scoring, Etienne the RB35. But Etienne has out-snapped Robinson in each of the last two weeks, and it’s possible that Etienne benefits more from a matchup against the Colts, who have been tough against the run but have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs. Both Jags RBs are playable in Week 6.

In the Broncos’ first game without Javonte Williams, Mike Boone played 41% of the offensive snaps and had 7-38-0 rushing and 3-47-0 receiving. He’s a flex-worthy option this week vs. a soft Chargers run defense.

It’s encouraging that rookie Tyler Allgeier played 59% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps last week. It’s less encouraging that he saw zero targets in the passing game, and that he has a Week 6 matchup with a San Francisco defense that has allowed 2.97 yards per carry.

Buccaneers rookie Rachaad White could actually be flex-worthy in a four-team bye week. He’s had eight touches each of the last two weeks, with snap shares of just under 40%. As 8-point favorites against the Steelers, the Buccaneers are likely to have a run-friendly game script against a poor Pittsburgh run defense and might continue to give White significant work.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Check out Fitz’s wide receiver rankings here partner-arrow

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Tier 7

You have to play Tyreek Hill this week even with third-stringer Skylar Thompson at QB for the Dolphins. Miami is going to manufacture touches for the Cheetah, and with Hill’s wicked speed, he can make his weekly fantasy quota with a single big play. It’s a thornier dilemma for Jaylen Waddle stakeholders. With Thompson in for all but one play last week after Teddy Bridgewater was forced to leave the game, Waddle had four targets and finished with 3-23-0. If Tua Tagovailoa were at quarterback for Miami, Waddle would be a top-20 receiver for me almost unconditionally. With Thompson at quarterback, I have Waddle ranked WR28, well below consensus, and I’m worried that’s still too high.

DeVonta Smith‘s targets have been … a moving target. His weekly target totals so far: 4, 7, 12, 4, 11. Still, I think Smith is a must-start this week. He’s the WR24 in half-PPR fantasy scoring, and he’s facing a pass-funnel Dallas defense that has faced an average of 41 pass attempts over the last three weeks.

Allen Lazard has 11 TD catches in his last 14 regular-season games. He’s averaged 44.6 receiving yards over that span.

I’m way above consensus on George Pickens this week, and that’s the way I want it. I’ve seen enough to be convinced that Pickens is going to be a star. He runs crisp routes. He has great hands He has a knack for acrobatic catches. He’s a fierce blocker. His competitive fire burns hotter than a Neapolitan pizza oven. Pickens is the total package. He’s had 6-102-0 and 6-83-0 in his last two games, and Pickens clearly has the attention of fellow rookie Kenny Pickett, who took over as the Steelers’ starting QB midway through their Week 4 game. Pickens is the reason I’m lower than consensus on Diontae Johnson this week (and will be in most weeks). Pickens has a tough matchup against the Buccaneers this week. I don’t care. I’m jamming him into my lineups and urge you to do the same.

Devin Duvernay has displayed freakish efficiency, with an 85% catch rate, 11.3 yards per target and touchdowns on 17.6% of his receptions. It’s the sort of efficiency that screams regression, and yet I think Duvernay could be a nice play this week if Rashod Bateman misses the Ravens’ Week 6 game against the Giants with a foot injury. Instead of thinking “unsustainable” when we look at Duvernay’s remarkable efficiency, maybe we should take it as a sign that he’s good.

In three Joe Flacco starts, Garrett Wilson saw 33 targets. In two Zach Wilson starts, Garrett Wilson has seen 10 targets. Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are basically co-equals in terms of usage – a mess for their respective fantasy investors. It’s probably a good week to keep them all on the bench. They face a run-funnel Packers defense that has faced 133 runs and 133 passes this season.

When JuJu Smith-Schuster had 111 catches for 1,426 yards in his second year, Ben Rothlisberger’s passer rating on JuJu targets was 97.6. This year, Patrick Mahomes‘ passer rating on JuJu targets is 61.3, which is 10.6 points lower than Baker Mayfield‘s passer rating. It seems like every time Mahomes throws to JuJu, he’s wearing a defender like a well-tailored suit. I have JuJu ranked WR39, and I’m looking for any excuse not to start him against the Bills this week.

It’s a been good year for rookie receivers, and now the Colts’ Alec Pierce is starting to make noise. He had a season-high nine targets last week, which he turned into 8-81-0 vs, a strong Denver secondary. Pierce has put up at least 80 yards in two straight games and at least 60 yards in three straight. He’s worthy of lineup consideration in most leagues.

Recovering Rondale Moore fan clubber here. I’d love to be all in on him, but he’s hurt me before and hardened my heart. I want to believe Moore is the same little stick of dynamite who had 1,471 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns in 13 games as an 18-year-old true freshman at Purdue. It’s going to take more than last week’s 7-68-0 stat line to get me back on the bandwagon.

CTAs

TIGHT ENDS

Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here partner-arrow

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Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Let’s start with Tier 3, a chin-scratcher of a tier for fantasy managers.

What to do with Taysom Hill? I would err on the side of using him if you don’t have a Tier 1 or Tier 2 tight end. I’ve seen some people suggest that Hill won’t be a thing once Jameis Winston is back at QB, but Winston had 4-81-1 rushing and 1-2-0 receiving with Winston at quarterback in Week 1. There may be games where Hill has two carries for eight yards. It’s worth slogging through those games for the shiny TD potential. A 2022 Hill investor probably would have made a good prospector in the 1840s.

You should not drop Kyle Pitts nor sell him for pennies on the dollar. All of the Falcons’ games have been close, so Arthur Smith has had the luxury of running the ball 55.5% of the time. Pitts’ target volume, catch rate and yardage per target are destined to rise. There will be weeks when you’re happy to have him. This might not be one of those weeks. Pitts is just coming off a hamstring injury, and he’s facing a 49ers defense that has given up 18-11-0 to tight ends this season on 18 targets. The Niners were tough on TEs last year, too. Still, there are only eight other TEs I’d start over Pitts, whose freaky skills give him a high weekly upside regardless of matchup.

Gerald Everett was basically a no-show in Week 5 with 1-2-0 on three targets. It wasn’t so much about Everett was being asked to block more with terrific young tackle Rashawn Slater out for the season. Everett ran 28 routes in the Chargers’ Week 5 win over the Browns. It’s not worth dwelling on. Everett has had three good games, two “meh” games this season. Not a bad batting average for a tight end these days.

Random prediction: There’s going to be a Dawson Knox multi-touchdown game soon, and his ECR will be TE7 the following week. I’m not poking fun at other rankers, but we’re probably all guilty of undervaluing Knox just because he hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. His fantasy value was largely TD-dependent last year and probably will be evermore. But that’s OK when you play for a team that scores wheelbarrows full of touchdowns. It’s only a matter of time before Knoxy gets his.


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Pat Fitzmaurice

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Pat Fitzmaurice is the managing editor and a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

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