Fantasy Football Week 6 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2022)

Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Teams projected for high Week 6 snap counts

Jacksonville Jaguars

While their CER has decreased for the last two weeks, I still think this is a good spot for Jacksonville. They rank third in seconds/snap and face the horrid Colts, who present just an 8.0 CER. This is a great opportunity for a “get right” game, as the Jaguars’ offense has slowed down the past two weeks. The Colts simply don’t have an offense that can stay on the field, allowing Jacksonville to dominate the snap count in this contest.

Arizona Cardinals

I predicted a slower game for the Cardinals last week, but I like them to flip that script in Week 6. After starting out slow in Week 1 (38 seconds/snap), the Cardinals have picked up the tempo and are close to the league average in pace at 31.71 seconds/snap. Their snaps should also increase this week because they play Seattle, the owner of the NFL’s second-worst defense. The Seahawks are no stranger to teams scoring a lot of points and running a ton of plays against them, and the Cardinals will look to continue that trend in Week 6.

Buffalo Bills

I don’t usually like talking about the same team in the same section two weeks in a row to not rehash the same information, but this spot is unique. The Bills vs. Chiefs contest has a league-high 53.5 O/U and features the top two teams in CER. I really like the Bills here because of the battle of the defenses. The Bills have the 2nd best defense in EPA/play, while the Chiefs offer a middle-of-the-pack 17th-ranked defense. This game profiles as a shootout, with the Bills getting the edge in plays and points.

Teams projected for low Week 6 snap counts

Chicago Bears

Come hell or high water, the Chicago Bears are going to run as few plays as possible. They actually have a solid pace, but their lack of understanding of the modern offense and a 23.9 CER have led them to run just 53.2 snaps/60 minutes this season. I don’t see this as a game where they turn that around, either. Chicago hosts Washington on Thursday night football, a matchup featuring two offenses with efficiencies below the 25th percentile and the lowest point total of the week at just 37.5. This isn’t a great spot for either offense, but maybe Washington sees the edge in plays run since Chicago seems to like staying in the low 50s.

New York Jets

This is less about the Jets and more about the Packers. The Jets run a good pace, and their efficiency isn’t great, but they’ve managed to average a whopping 69.0 snaps/60 minutes. This is not sustainable. On top of this, they play the Packers, who, as I’ve noted in the past, are slow and efficient, the perfect formula to dominate snap count and time of possession. Their opponents have averaged just 53.8 snaps/60 minutes this year, a number that would put them below every team this year besides the Chicago Bears. This is an easy spot to fade the Jets.

Miami Dolphins

So, it turns out the Dolphins are not a very good team when they start a 7th-round rookie at QB. With Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater‘s statuses unclear, we should be bracing for preseason sensation Skylar Thompson to start on Sunday. If this is the case, it will be difficult to feel confident about Miami running a large number of plays against Minnesota, a team that is in the top 10 of both CER and seconds/snap. Miami managed to run just 62 plays in a blowout loss to the Jets. I see a similar game script playing out if Thompson gets the nod this week.

*Data from the table comes from as follows: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/minutes-played?date=2022-01-10, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/pace-stats/2021, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-play?date=2022-01-11, https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

Noteworthy Trends

• After coming out of the gates hot in efficiency, the Jaguars have seen their CER decrease by 21 in the last two weeks, the second largest decrease over that time period. I would have simply excused this due to a tough matchup against Philadelphia in Week 3. However, Jacksonville also experienced a decline in CER last week, but this time it was because of a 13-6 loss to the Texans. This concerns me. Houston is not good. Sometimes divisional games are weird, so maybe we can chalk it up to that or just variance, but this is a situation to keep an eye on. Maybe Jacksonville isn't as good as we once thought.

• Not to bury the lead, but now I'll address the biggest faller in CER: The Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have seen their CER drop a massive 39.2 points over the last two weeks, almost double the next biggest drop, as mentioned above. It'll help to get C Brian Allen back from injury, but I think there are systemic problems with this Rams team. They simply lack talent. According to Pro Football Focus's grading system, they rank 16th overall and 24th on offense. This is not the same team we saw last year in the Super Bowl, not even close. It's time to change how we see them. We should see them as they are: an average team.

• It's hard to imagine Carolina could get any worse. They fired HC Matt Rhule and DC Phil Snow on Monday morning, a sign they want to change. I would, too, when my team has a 3.7 CER and a 1-4 record. Maybe this team will get better. I doubt it, especially since they didn't fire OC Ben McAdoo, but maybe philosophy changes. Carolina has averaged just 55.8 plays/60 minutes, with only the Seahawks and Bears running fewer. I hope that new HC Steve Wilks wants to run a faster pace and that my DJ Moore shares will be revived. I doubt much changes if McAdoo is still calling plays, but this is still something to keep tabs on.