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Fantasy Football Week 7 Usage Report: Waiver Wire & Trade Advice

Fantasy Football Week 7 Usage Report: Waiver Wire & Trade Advice

High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high numbers of routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from Week 7 saw healthy doses of red-zone targets, air yards, deep targets and goal-line carries.

Targeting players who run a high percentage of routes is also a good approach for identifying breakout candidates, beatable player props, DFS targets and players to prioritize in the Week 8 fantasy football rankings and 2022 rest-of-season rankings.

This weekly report will look at recent rates of routes run per dropback along with players who commanded a high rate of high-value opportunities compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or fewer opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 8 and for the remainder of the 2022 season.

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Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Assistant

WIDE RECEIVERS

Player Routes % of routes run per dropback Targets Target Share Target Rate Per Route Run
Zay Jones 44 100% 10 23% 23%
D.J. Moore 24 100% 10 48% 42%
Davante Adams 28 100% 9 35% 32%
Michael Pittman Jr. 48 100% 9 22% 19%
Amari Cooper 34 100% 4 16% 12%
Christian Kirk 43 100% 10 23% 23%
Chris Olave 49 98% 14 30% 29%
Parris Campbell 47 98% 12 29% 26%
Ja’Marr Chase 44 98% 11 26% 25%
Tee Higgins 44 98% 7 17% 16%
Marcus Johnson 36 97% 3 10% 8%
Terry McLaurin 34 97% 8 25% 24%
CeeDee Lamb 27 96% 6 24% 22%
Mack Hollins 27 96% 3 12% 11%
Diontae Johnson 47 96% 10 24% 21%
Alec Pierce 46 96% 4 10% 9%
Terrace Marshall 23 96% 3 14% 13%
Drake London 18 95% 1 8% 6%
Rondale Moore 30 94% 2 7% 7%
DeAndre Carter 53 93% 7 14% 13%
Brandon Aiyuk 47 92% 11 24% 23%
Chris Godwin 47 92% 13 27% 28%
Tyreek Hill 35 92% 13 37% 37%
George Pickens 45 92% 6 14% 13%
Courtland Sutton 44 92% 9 20% 20%
Romeo Doubs 32 91% 4 12% 13%
Donovan Peoples-Jones 31 91% 6 24% 19%
Kalif Raymond 29 91% 6 24% 21%
DeAndre Hopkins 29 91% 14 48% 48%
Mike Evans 46 90% 15 31% 33%
Tyler Lockett 27 90% 8 31% 30%
Jerry Jeudy 43 90% 11 24% 26%
Tyler Boyd 40 89% 9 21% 23%
Brandin Cooks 37 88% 5 13% 14%
Garrett Wilson 28 88% 5 21% 18%
Josh Reynolds 28 88% 2 8% 7%
Jaylen Waddle 33 87% 5 14% 15%
Robert Woods 19 86% 4 20% 21%
Chase Claypool 42 86% 8 19% 19%
Noah Brown 24 86% 7 28% 29%
Deebo Samuel 42 82% 7 15% 17%
Marquez Callaway 41 82% 6 13% 15%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 18 82% 2 10% 11%
Curtis Samuel 28 80% 8 25% 29%
Cam Sims 28 80% 2 6% 7%
Michael Gallup 22 79% 2 8% 9%
Wan’Dale Robinson 29 78% 8 28% 28%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 27 77% 4 11% 15%
Devin Duvernay 16 76% 3 19% 19%
Mike Williams 43 75% 9 18% 21%
Olamide Zaccheaus 14 74% 4 33% 29%
Marquise Goodwin 22 73% 5 19% 23%
Hunter Renfrow 20 71% 3 12% 15%
JuJu Smith-Schuster 25 71% 8 23% 32%
Rashod Bateman 15 71% 5 31% 33%
Darius Slayton 26 70% 6 21% 23%
K.J. Hamler 33 69% 4 9% 12%
Trent Sherfield 26 68% 3 9% 12%
Marvin Jones Jr. 29 67% 8 19% 28%
Tre’Quan Smith 33 66% 6 13% 18%
David Bell 22 65% 1 4% 5%
Russell Gage 33 65% 5 10% 15%
Chris Moore 27 64% 4 10% 15%
Michael Bandy 36 63% 6 12% 17%
Braxton Berrios 20 63% 4 17% 20%
Phillip Dorsett 26 62% 3 8% 12%
Mecole Hardman 21 60% 4 11% 19%
Tom Kennedy 19 59% 3 12% 16%
Sammy Watkins 20 57% 4 12% 20%
Allen Lazard 19 54% 7 21% 37%
Jauan Jennings 26 51% 4 9% 15%
Greg Dortch 16 50% 1 3% 6%
D’Wayne Eskridge 14 47% 1 4% 7%
Denzel Mims 14 44% 2 8% 14%
Nico Collins 18 43% 3 8% 17%
Damiere Byrd 8 42% 1 8% 13%
Mason Kinsey 9 41% 1 5% 11%
Samori Toure 12 34% 1 3% 8%
D.K. Metcalf 10 33% 2 8% 20%
Cody Hollister 7 32% 2 10% 29%
Amari Rodgers 11 31% 3 9% 27%
Skyy Moore 11 31% 1 3% 9%
Ray-Ray McCloud III 16 31% 4 9% 25%
Corey Davis 10 31% 1 4% 10%
Jason Moore 15 26% 2 4% 13%
Kevin White 13 26% 1 2% 8%
Dax Milne 9 26% 1 3% 11%
Keenan Allen 14 25% 2 4% 14%

 

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI)

Welcome back DeAndre Hopkins! The Cardinals No. 1 WR made his return to the starting lineup after a six-game suspension and was immediately peppered with targets from Kyler Murray. He was targeted 14 times (48% target share) catching 10 balls for 103 receiving yards. Safe to say, he’s back in the fantasy WR1 territory.

Chris Olave (WR – NO)

It should be understated what Chris Olave is doing in the Saints offense. The rookie wideout entered the game with a 30% target share dating back to Week 2, and his stranglehold on being the No. 1 WR continued on Thursday night. The Ohio State product caught 7-of-14 targets (30% target share) for 106 receiving yards while running a route on 94% of dropbacks.

Parris Campbell (WR – IND)

Parris Campbell routinely has seen great route participation, but in the last two weeks he has finally put together production to go alongside it. After seeing double-digit targets last week, he earned 12 targets for 10 receptions and 70 receiving yards and one TD. With the Colts going all-in on a massive volume short dropback and quick passing game, Campbell and the receivers were feasting in recent weeks. But it announced that the team will bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger, the former Texas quarterback drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Ehlinger was PFF’s third-highest graded QB during the preseason tying for the league’s highest adjusted completion percentage (92.3%). And his status as QB does not necessarily mean the Colts will get away from the quick-passing game, as Ehlinger can successfully deliver accurate passes at the short-to-intermediate level. However, with a more mobile quarterback under center, you will likely see the passing attempts dialed back in the Colts passing attack. In the last three weeks, Ryan has averaged just under 48 passes per game. The reduction in volume will hurt fringy WRs like Campbell, making him much less enticing off waivers this week. Volume aside, I am not sure the passing efficiency with Ehlinger can be much worse than what Ryan was doing – hence the QB change by head coach Frank Reich. Ryan boasted the league’s 10th-worst passing EPA, league-high nine interceptions and 24 sacks. Clearly, Reich had seen enough of the turnovers and sacks. The sheer lack of mobility left Ryan as a sitting duck.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

Michael Pittman Jr.‘s value likely suffers with a more ground-based approach with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB. He’s still the clear alpha in the offense – 100% route participation in Week 7, 24% target share this season – so there’s some merit to buying low with hopes that Ehlinger’s impressive preseason (No.3-graded QB) as a passer will carry over to real-game action. Backup and inexperienced QBs oftentimes just dial onto one receiver, which could easily be Pittman in this case. I’d be much less bullish on Alec Pierce because he remains the team’s main deep threat, and that is not one of Ehlinger’s main strengths. Although, considering how bad Ryan’s was at this point in his career, it actually might be a slight upgrade. I’d imagine the Colts want to limit turnovers as much as possible, which means more safe throws closer to the line of scrimmage. Pittman’s aDOT this season ranks 10th-lowest in the NFL this season (6.8). If anything, at least the matchup versus Washington is favorable in Week 8. Overall, the Colts own the 4th-easiest schedule for WRs per FantasyPros Strength of schedule tool.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Brandon Aiyuk led the 49ers in targets (7 for 82 on 11 targets), followed by George Kittle (6 for 98 on 9 targets) and then Deebo Samuel (5 for 42 on 78 targets) in Week 7. It’s back-to-back weeks now that Aiyuk has out-targeted his WR teammate, and I am not so sure it’s going to revert back to Samuel anytime soon. Aiyuk runs the most WR routes on the team every week and Samuel’s low aDOT (6.0, 8th-lowest) is sure to overlap with future targets for running back Christian McCaffrey. If somebody is still treating Samuel like a fringe fantasy WR1, I’d sell.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

Chris Godwin caught 7 passes for 43 yards on 13 targets (27% target share) in Week 7. It was the second week in a row that Godwin saw a high target share (32% in Week 6) with 25 combined targets over the time frame. He’s being targeted on over 28% of his routes run. However, the lack of scoring and yardage may have some fantasy managers soured on the Buccaneers slot receiver. For that reason, you need to be aggressive in trading for him. The Baltimore Ravens bleed fantasy points to slot receivers, setting Godwin up for a nice bounce-back effort in Week 8.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG)

After playing just 23% of the snaps in Week 6, Wan’Dale Robinson‘s usage spiked in Week 7. He ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks, corralling six catches for 50 yards on 8 targets (28% target share). He’s a buy across all fantasy formats as the Giants No. 1 WR. Big Blue owns the easiest remaining schedule for WRs per FantasyPros strength of schedule tool.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

Buy Rashod Bateman. The Ravens No. 1 wide receiver commanded a 31% target share and was targeted on 33% of his routes run in Week 8. He ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and came up just one yard short of scoring a touchdown. With him back fully healthy, I’d be trading for him. Baltimore has the second-easiest strength of schedule remaining for WRs.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Terry McLaurin went 5-73-1 on team-high 8 targets (25% target share) and continues his high-end target share with Taylor Heinicke from last season. Still, the majority of his production came on a 37-yard-long score. Without that score, just 4 catches for 32 yards. I’d be bearish on McLaurin for the rest of the season for fear that he won’t connect on the long ball from Heinicke – who has traditionally struggled to throw downfield. Not to mention, Curtis Samuel also saw just as many targets, but earned them at a higher rate (29% vs 24%). Jahan Dotson also did not play in this game.

HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:

RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS

Player Air Yards Share Air Yards Deep Targets Deep Catches Red-Zone Targets Red-Zone TDs
Mike Evans 74% 217 0 3 2 0
DeAndre Hopkins 61% 131 0 1 1 0
Terry McLaurin 53% 96 1 2 1 0
D.J. Moore 51% 88 1 1 0 0
Amari Cooper 51% 84 1 1 0 0
Davante Adams 50% 92 0 0 0 0
Tyreek Hill 50% 171 0 1 0 0
Darius Slayton 49% 94 1 1 0 0
Chris Olave 45% 168 0 3 0 0
Michael Pittman Jr. 41% 68 0 0 0 0
Damiere Byrd 41% 41 1 1 0 0
Sammy Watkins 40% 85 1 2 0 0
CeeDee Lamb 39% 106 1 2 0 0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 39% 106 2 2 0 0
Rashod Bateman 38% 33 0 0 1 0
Olamide Zaccheaus 37% 37 0 0 0 0
Terrace Marshall 36% 62 0 0 0 0
Donovan Peoples-Jones 36% 59 1 1 1 0
Kalif Raymond 33% 48 0 0 0 0
Tyler Boyd 32% 117 2 2 1 0
Mike Williams 32% 98 0 1 1 1
Marquise Goodwin 32% 66 2 2 0 0
Noah Brown 31% 84 0 1 0 0
Christian Kirk 31% 130 1 3 1 0
Diontae Johnson 30% 87 0 2 0 0
Alec Pierce 29% 48 1 1 0 0
Ja’Marr Chase 29% 106 1 1 1 0
Chase Claypool 29% 85 0 1 0 0
Marvin Jones Jr. 29% 122 1 3 0 0
Courtland Sutton 29% 135 0 3 0 0
Josh Reynolds 28% 41 0 1 0 0
Parris Campbell 28% 46 0 0 1 1
Devin Duvernay 27% 24 1 1 0 0
JuJu Smith-Schuster 27% 73 0 0 2 0
Jerry Jeudy 24% 114 1 2 0 0
Zay Jones 24% 102 0 3 2 0
Robert Woods 23% 30 0 0 0 0
Chris Godwin 23% 69 0 1 1 0
K.J. Hamler 23% 109 0 2 0 0
Marquez Callaway 23% 85 0 2 2 0
DeAndre Carter 23% 71 0 1 1 0
Hunter Renfrow 23% 42 1 1 0 0
Mack Hollins 22% 40 1 1 0 0
Curtis Samuel 22% 39 0 0 1 0
Tee Higgins 21% 76 0 0 1 0
Tyler Lockett 21% 43 0 0 1 0
Phillip Dorsett 20% 48 2 2 1 0
Amari Rodgers 20% 43 0 1 0 0
Corey Davis 20% 21 0 0 0 0
Robbie Anderson 19% 42 0 1 0 0
Cody Hollister 19% 24 0 0 1 0
Brandin Cooks 19% 44 0 0 0 0
George Pickens 19% 55 1 1 1 1
Braxton Berrios 18% 19 0 0 0 0
Michael Gallup 18% 48 0 1 0 0
Ray-Ray McCloud III 18% 60 0 0 0 0
Brandon Aiyuk 17% 58 0 0 3 0
Danny Gray 17% 58 0 1 0 0
Jaylen Waddle 17% 58 0 0 0 0
Allen Lazard 15% 31 0 0 1 0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 14% 18 0 0 0 0
Chris Moore 14% 33 0 0 2 1
D.K. Metcalf 13% 28 0 0 1 0
Tre’Quan Smith 13% 47 0 0 1 0
Wan’Dale Robinson 12% 24 0 0 0 0
Tom Kennedy 12% 18 0 0 0 0
Rondale Moore 12% 26 0 0 1 0
Rashid Shaheed 12% 44 1 1 0 0

 

TOP TAKEAWAYS

  • Robbie Anderson was only targeted once (18% snap share) on Thursday night, but he earned 42 air yards. The downfield shot foreshadows Anderson’s role as the primary deep threat when he gets caught up to speed. A.J. Green playing zero snaps despite being on the team all season suggests his days are numbered in Arizona.
  • Disappointing to see Rondale Moore fade into oblivion with Hopkins back in the lineup. Just one catch for 31 yards on 2 targets despite running a route on 94% of dropbacks (one more than Hopkins). Still, players with elite route participation in high-powered pass-heavy offenses tend to bounce back.
  • Keenan Allen in his 1st game back just 2 for 11 on 2 targets (32% snap share).DeAndre Carter (7) andMichael Bandy (6) had more targets. But Mike Williams also left with an injury. We won’t know the severity of Williams’ injury with the team on bye in Week 8, but there’s a non-zero chance Allen is the clear-cut No. 1 by the time Week 9 rolls around. Buy Allen.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (had injury) – Left game in the 1st quarter with what was thought to be a concussion. Over 7 days, and the potential to miss a week. However, head coach Dan Campbell said ASB did not suffer a concussion and was kept out only due to the new protocol. That gives him a better chance to suit up in Week 8 in a plus-matchup versus the Dolphins reeling defense. It’s been a while since we have seen him produce, which means he is frustrating his fantasy managers. Take full advantage. I really doubt the Lions are looking to rush Jameson Williams back on the field with their W-L record sitting at 1-5.
  • Allen Lazard finished second on the team in targets (7, 37% target rate), with 6 catches for 55 yards. 6 targets in the first half alone. But left with a shoulder injury. Rookie Romeo Doubs with zero catches on 4 targets despite leading the team in routes run. Woof. He was Out-produced by Sammy Watkins.
  • WRs/TEs/RBs that saw multiple red-zone targets that did not score in Week 7 include Brandon Aiyuk (3), Mike Evans (2), Zay Jones (2), Gerald Everett (2), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2), Deebo Samuel (2), Brevin Jordan (2), Marquez Callaway (2), Russell Gage (2, 6 over the last 2 games), Mike Gesicki (2), Dontrell Hilliard (2), Marcus Johnson (2) and Nyheim Hines (2).
  • D.J. Moore finally converted the elite usage. 10 targets (48% target share), 69 yards and a TD, while running a route on 100% of dropbacks per usual. YLTSI. However, this one-off game where Moore scored (which doesn’t happen very often) provides you the perfect vehicle to ship off Moore to the highest bidder for those that think he will be the definition of consistency moving forward. Worth noting that second-year WR Terrace Marshall operated as the clear No. 2, running a route on 96% of dropbacks.
  • Rookie George Pickens reclaimed No. 2 WR duties with Kenny Pickett back under center. He led the Steelers WRs in yards (61) catching all six of his targets with one receiving TD. He ran just two fewer routes than Diontae Johnson but three more than Chase Claypool.
  • Johnson continues to see high target volume (24% target share), but his efficiency continues to leave so much desired. His 10 targets in Week 7 translated into 5 catches for 42 yards. He has one top-30 finish in half-point scoring this season despite seeing all the opportunities. Sell. Pittsburgh has the second-toughest schedule for WRs over the rest of the season.
  • Noah Brown ran more routes (86% vs 79%) than Michael Gallup in Week 7 after it appeared the latter was firmly in the grasp of the No. 2 WR job. Until we get any consistent usage from either player, they cannot be trusted in fantasy lineups.
  • Should DK Metcalf miss anytime, Marquise Goodwin would be his in-house replacement. The Olympic track star ran a route on 73% of dropbacks in Week 7, earning five targets for 67 yards plus 2 scores.
  • 3 TD scores for Mecole Hardman on just six touches – 2 carries, 4 catches – for 50 yards in Week 7. It’s definitely a trick and not a long treat that fantasy managers should be chasing off the waiver wire. Every single week, it’s a different Chief that blows up more often than not. Although it is notable that Hardman led the Chiefs WRs in snaps played for the first time all season. However, there’s more “trick” to that because his 60% route participation still ranked third on the roster.
  • Mike Evans could have had an absolute monster day. 217 air yards and two red-zone targets. But zero deep ball catches and zero TDs. Woof.
  • Other WRs that saw multiple deep targets that failed to haul them include Zay Jones, Chris Olave, Courtland Sutton, Diontae Johnson, Marquez Callaway and K.J. Hamler.
  • Sutton finished the week fourth in air yards (135) on nine targets but converted just 3 balls into 23 yards. He needs a healthy Russell Wilson back at quarterback.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster was targeted at a much higher rate than in Week 6. Last week his target share was 14% and his target rate was 11%. But those numbers skyrocketed in Week 7: 23% target share and 32% target rate. That bump firmly puts him in the top-30 WR conversation for the rest of 2022.
  • Tyquan Thornton ran a route on 94% of the Patriots’ dropbacks on Monday Night — by far his highest route participation to date. He ran more routes than DeVante Parker for the first time all season.

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RUNNING BACKS

Player Routes % of routes run per dropback Targets Target Share Target Rate Per Route Run
Eno Benjamin 24 75% 5 17% 21%
Aaron Jones 26 74% 10 30% 38%
Austin Ekeler 41 72% 12 24% 29%
Raheem Mostert 27 71% 5 14% 19%
Josh Jacobs 17 61% 4 15% 24%
Kenneth Walker 18 60% 0 0% 0%
Michael Carter 19 59% 2 8% 11%
Melvin Gordon III 27 56% 4 9% 15%
Alvin Kamara 28 56% 9 20% 32%
Joe Mixon 24 53% 3 7% 13%
Najee Harris 26 53% 4 10% 15%
Saquon Barkley 19 51% 4 14% 21%
Tony Pollard 14 50% 2 8% 14%
Dontrell Hilliard 11 50% 2 10% 18%
Patrick Ricard 10 48% 2 13% 20%
Kyle Juszczyk 24 47% 4 9% 17%
Leonard Fournette 24 47% 3 6% 13%
Kareem Hunt 16 47% 2 8% 13%
Travis Etienne 20 47% 5 12% 25%
Jonathan Taylor 22 46% 8 20% 36%
Chuba Hubbard 11 46% 3 14% 27%
Jerick McKinnon 16 46% 3 9% 19%
Rex Burkhead 19 45% 6 15% 32%
Nick Chubb 15 44% 3 12% 20%
D’Onta Foreman 10 42% 2 10% 20%
Derrick Henry 9 41% 3 15% 33%
Ezekiel Elliott 11 39% 0 0% 0%
Rachaad White 20 39% 2 4% 10%
Nyheim Hines 18 38% 5 12% 28%
Tyler Allgeier 7 37% 0 0% 0%
Craig Reynolds 11 34% 3 12% 27%
Antonio Gibson 12 34% 4 13% 33%
DeeJay Dallas 10 33% 2 8% 20%
Justice Hill 7 33% 0 0% 0%
Latavius Murray 15 31% 3 7% 20%
Samaje Perine 14 31% 2 5% 14%
Dameon Pierce 12 29% 4 10% 33%
J.D. McKissic 10 29% 2 6% 20%
Keaontay Ingram 9 28% 2 7% 22%
Chase Edmonds 10 26% 2 6% 20%
Mark Ingram 13 26% 3 7% 23%
Jeff Wilson Jr. 13 25% 1 2% 8%
Matt Breida 9 24% 1 3% 11%
Brian Robinson 8 23% 2 6% 25%
A.J. Dillon 8 23% 0 0% 0%
Jamaal Williams 7 22% 1 4% 14%
Christian McCaffrey 11 22% 2 4% 18%
Tyrion Davis-Price 11 22% 2 4% 18%
Ameer Abdullah 6 21% 2 8% 33%
Avery Williams 4 21% 1 8% 25%
Caleb Huntley 4 21% 0 0% 0%
Jaylen Warren 10 20% 2 5% 20%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 7 20% 1 3% 14%
Isiah Pacheco 7 20% 0 0% 0%
Sony Michel 11 19% 3 6% 27%
Hassan Haskins 4 18% 1 5% 25%
Dare Ogunbowale 7 17% 7 18% 100%
Breece Hall 5 16% 0 0% 0%
Justin Jackson 5 16% 0 0% 0%
Kenyan Drake 3 14% 1 6% 33%
Raheem Blackshear 3 13% 0 0% 0%

 

Eno Benjamin (RB – ARI)

Eno Benjamin totaled 16 touches for over 100 yards in his second consecutive spot start for the injured James Conner. The No.2 RB rushed for 92 yards and scored once. Although his usage wasn’t as good as it was in Week 6 – Keontay Ingram was more involved with 11 touches and 1 TD score – Benjamin delivered for fantasy managers that chased his involvement from a week ago. He ran a route on 78% of dropbacks and played 73% of the snaps. James Conner is expected to return after being labeled a game-time decision before Thursday night, moving Benjamin back into the high-handcuff stash conversation. I’d presume Conner takes on a workload similar to what we saw from Benjamin in Week 7.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

Alvin Kamara dominated the touches for a third straight week (74% opportunity share), but extended his scoreless streak to three games. His efficiency/usage (11 for 49 rushing, 7 for 56 receiving) has been stellar, so the scores will come sooner rather than later. He went scoreless on his 3 carries inside the 10-yard line. Although his Week 7 56% route participation is slightly lower than we typically see.

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

Over the last 3 games, Josh Jacobs‘ weekly finishes are RB1, RB3 and RB1. Josh McDaniels is running Jacobs into the ground. He’s a free agent at the end of the season. His production…can’t stop and won’t stop. In Week 7, the Jacobs vs the world revenge tour continued with him rushing 20 times for 143 yards and 3 TDs. Zamir White has one carry. Jacobs also added 3 catches for 12 yards on 4 targets. All in all, 23 touches, 89% opportunity share, 3 TDs and 155 yards on offense. A solid day at the office. Buy high for those that still don’t realize Jacobs can be a top-3 RB rest of the season.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

Jonathan Taylor finished Week 7with just 10 carries, but was efficient (58 yards) coming off his ankle injury. He also saw 8 targets and caught 7 passes for 27 yards. 8 targets tied career-high. 7 catches WAS a career-high. He’s probably a BUY more than a sell after a lackluster start to the season. He’s healthy and I’d imagine his 55% snap share will increase another week removed from injury. New starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger offers much more escapability and off-script playmaking behind an offensive line that has struggled. More RPOs and a larger emphasis on the ground game should also get Taylor back into the good graces of fantasy managers even at the cost of targets. Nyheim Hines isn’t nearly as fortunate because he needs targets to score points.

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

Kenneth Walker III reigns supreme. 23 carries for 168 rushing yards and two TDs including a 74-yard score. He was not targeted, but handled 74% of the backfield’s opportunities, played 73% of the snaps and ran a route on 60% of dropbacks. DeeJay Dallas ran a route on just 33% of dropbacks. The production won’t stop for the rookie with plus matchups coming up versus the Giants and Cardinals.

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)

Leonard Fournette with just 10 touches to Rachaad White‘s 7 in Week 7. Lenny with just 19 rushing yards and 3 targets (6% target share) running a route on just 47% of dropbacks. White has totaled 7 touches in back-to-back weeks but continues to see his snaps increase. 43% snap share was a season-high for the rookie, while Fournette tied a season-low (60%). And this was a game that the Buccaneers NEEDED to win. Following the snaps has been a tried-and-true approach to buying/selling RBs at the right time. And based on the trends, you want to get out of the Fournette business ASAP. Tampa Bay has a bottom-5 schedule for RBs over the next 3 weeks and for the remainder of the season.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)

Ezekiel Elliott did exactly what he was expected to do in Week 7. Smash. 15 carries for 57 yards and 2 rushing TDs against the league’s worst run defense. But again. Zero targets. So all that glitters is not gold for Zeke. Because this is the exact time to SELL HIGH. For back-to-back weeks, Elliott has split backfield opportunities near a dead-even split with Tony Pollard. And in Week 7, we saw something unthinkable. Pollard out-snapped Zeke (65% to 49%) while running a route on 50% of dropbacks. Elliott also didn’t miss any time after taking a shot to the knee that initially looked much worse. As a two-down TD-dependent grinder back – that isn’t even the best rusher on his own team – Elliott is the poster boy to sell high this week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)

Isiah Pacheco earned just a 40% opportunity share in the Chiefs backfield after being named the starter in Week 7. He led the team in carries (8) and rushing yards (43), but Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored on 1 of his 6 carries. Pacheco also totaled half of his carries in the second half. Neither caught any passes. Jerick McKinnon caught 2-of-3 targets for 36 yards. It’s clear this backfield is a three-headed mess with each guy carving out a niche role. Pacheco is the best pure rusher, CEH has a nose for the end zone and McKinnon is the preferred pass-catching specialist. Ergo, none of them are going to be reliable week-to-week in an offense that would rather just let Patrick Mahomes sling the rock. So sell CEH or really any of these Chiefs RBs. Edwards-Helaire played just 27% of the snaps and had just 6 touches.

Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)

Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 66 yards and two TDs in return from torn ACL. 47% opportunity share. Kenyan Drake rushed 11 times for 5 yards. Woof. It was great to see Edwards immediately take over the backfield for Baltimore in lieu of J.K. Dobbins‘ injury. However, keep in mind that Edwards had a super easy matchup against the Cleveland Browns horrible run defense. And had it not been for the two rushing scores, Edwards would not be held in nearly as high regard. He also played just 36% of the snaps with a 50% opportunity share. With zero pass game usage to speak of and tougher matchups coming up against the Buccaneers and Saints, I’d sell high on the Gus Bus.

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)

Breece Hall left with an injury but not before rushing for 72 yards and 1 TD on just 4 carries. His injury is a season-ending torn ACL. No. 2 RB Michael Carter came in relief and handled 15 touches for 74 yards. 2 for 45 through the air. He posted a 71% opportunity share and that includes Hall’s touches to start the game. No doubt he will be the featured RB for the the rest of season unless the Jets make a trade for another running back. Carter’s hardly offers the same upside as Hall so I’d also put Carter on the trade block. He ranks 5th-worst in yards after contact per attempt this season. Hall ranked fourth-best. Not to mention, the addition of ex-Jaguars running back James Robinson clouds Carter’s potential workload. JRob is no slouch, having finished as a fantasy RB1 the past two seasons.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)

Even with Damien Harris back in the lineup, Rhamondre Stevenson was treated as the team’s true bellcow. 77% snap share to Harris’ 17% snap share (9 snaps). 19 touches overall (8 receptions, 29% target share) while running a route on 69% of dropbacks for a 79% opportunity share. Top-15 fantasy RB rest of season.

RB Opportunity Share | Week 7

Goal-line carries (Any carry inside the 10-yard line)

Player Carries Touches Opportunities Goal-Line Carries Goal-line TDs Overall Opportunity Share
Derrick Henry 30 33 33 0 0 92%
Josh Jacobs 20 23 24 2 2 89%
Joe Mixon 17 20 20 4 1 87%
Travis Etienne 14 15 19 3 1 86%
Saquon Barkley 24 28 28 1 0 85%
Najee Harris 17 20 21 1 0 84%
Aaron Jones 8 17 18 1 0 82%
Austin Ekeler 9 21 21 1 1 78%
Kenneth Walker III 23 23 23 1 0 74%
Alvin Kamara 11 18 20 3 0 74%
Nick Chubb 16 18 19 2 1 73%
Michael Carter 13 15 15 0 0 71%
Raheem Mostert 16 20 21 0 0 70%
Tyler Allgeier 16 16 16 3 1 67%
Eno Benjamin 12 16 17 3 1 65%
Jonathan Taylor 10 17 18 0 0 62%
Jamaal Williams 15 16 16 1 0 62%
Dameon Pierce 20 24 24 0 0 60%
Leonard Fournette 8 10 11 0 0 58%
Brian Robinson 20 22 22 0 0 56%
D’Onta Foreman 15 17 17 0 0 55%
Ezekiel Elliott 15 15 15 4 2 52%
Melvin Gordon III 11 13 15 0 0 50%
Gus Edwards 16 16 17 2 2 50%
Tony Pollard 12 14 14 2 0 48%
Keaontay Ingram 9 11 11 2 1 42%
Rachaad White 6 7 8 0 0 42%
Isiah Pacheco 8 8 8 0 0 40%
Chuba Hubbard 9 11 12 0 0 39%
Christian McCaffrey 8 10 10 0 0 38%
Latavius Murray 8 10 11 2 1 37%
Antonio Gibson 10 13 14 1 0 36%
Kenyan Drake 11 11 12 1 0 35%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 6 6 7 0 0 35%
Nyheim Hines 4 9 9 1 0 31%
Jeff Wilson Jr. 7 7 8 0 0 31%
Chase Edmonds 7 7 9 0 0 30%
Kareem Hunt 5 6 7 2 1 27%
Craig Reynolds 4 7 7 0 0 27%
Mark Ingram 4 7 7 0 0 26%
DeeJay Dallas 6 8 8 0 0 26%
Jerick McKinnon 2 4 5 0 0 25%
Caleb Huntley 6 6 6 0 0 25%
Rex Burkhead 2 7 8 0 0 20%
Dare Ogunbowale 1 6 8 0 0 20%
Breece Hall 4 4 4 0 0 19%
Sony Michel 2 3 5 0 0 19%
A.J. Dillon 4 4 4 0 0 18%

 

TOP TAKEAWAYS:

  • D’Onta Foreman rushed 15 times for 118 yards in Week 7 while operating in a timeshare with fellow Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard (54% snap share, 55% opportunity share). Hubbard saw three targets (46% route participation) to Foreman’s two (42% route participation) but left in the 4th quarter with an ankle injury. The former looked like the starter with 7 carries for 33 yards in 1st half. Foreman had two carries but also two 1st-half catches. And that was because he was playing downs during the 2-minute drill. However, Hubbard’s ankle injury could set up Foreman to be the bellcow for Carolina down the stretch. They have the No. 1 strength of schedule remaining for fantasy RBs.
  • Christian McCaffrey totaled 10 touches in his 49ers debut with 8 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 24 yards. He out-touched Jeff Wilson (7 carries for 54 yards) with a 38% opportunity share on a limited snap count (28%). Anticipate his role to grow substantially in the next few weeks, especially after the 49ers Week 8 bye week.
  • Aaron Jones out-touched A.J. Dillon 18-4 in Week 7, by far the biggest gap between the RB duo. Dillon has hit rock bottom in terms of usage and is nothing more than a handcuff to Jones, whose touches and snaps have increased over the last two weeks at the expense of Dillon.
  • Jones went 9-53-2 on team-high 10 targets receiving (30% target share). 81% opportunity share for Jones. But keep in mind that his spiked week in production came in the one game when Allen Lazard did not play a full allotment of snaps. And historically speaking, this was the same thing that happened in years past. During draft season, many pointed to the splits for Jones’ receiving to spike without Davante Adams. But in many of those games, Lazard was also not healthy. If he misses time, I anticipate Jones’ receiving usage will stay high.
  • Kareem Hunt totaled just six touches and 5 yards. Only two targets. But he scored. It was the second straight week where Hunt’s touches have dipped dramatically. An average of 6 touches. It begs the question of whether Hunt might be on the trade block for an RB-needy team. The team is listening to offers. Therefore, he is worth buying on the dirt cheap. At worst you have a high-end handcuff, plus a boost when Deshaun Watson returns. David Njoku being out could also open the target floodgates for Hunt to be more involved as a receiver.
  • Melvin Gordon (11 carries) and Latavius Murray (8 carries) split carries and touches after Mike Boone got hurt in Week 7. Gordon earned more targets(4 vs 3), ran more routes and seems to still be the “starter”. However, it’s hardly that clear-cut because Murray bogarted two carries inside the 10-yard line. Overall just gross, but it helps them both that Boone was placed on IR.
  • Travis Etienne breakout szn 14-114-1 (and zero attempts for James Robinson). 86% opportunity share. 3 carries inside the 10-yard line. 5 targets but could have scored another one had it not been for a fumble. JaMycal Hasty got touches before Robinson (0), who is nothing more than a handcuff at this point.
  • Dameon Pierce finished Week 7 with 20 carries for 92 yards, and also added four catches for 25 yards. The rushing volume will be there every week with the rookie, but the receiving usage is encouraging. Although it’s probably never going to be elite – with the likes of Rex Burkhead (6 targets, 5 catches for 11 yards) and Dare Ogunbowale (7 targets, 5 catches for 54 yards) involved as pass-catchers out of the backfield. Pierce ran a route on just 29% of dropbacks in Week 7.
  • Drop JD McKissic. Antonio Gibson is running more routes and adds additional value as a rusher. Although Gibson is still behind Brian Robinson in the backfield hierarchy. BRob crested 22 touches and 56% opportunity share in Week 7.
  • RBs that saw multiple carries inside the 10-yard line that did not score in Week 7 include Alvin Kamara (3) and Tony Pollard (2).
  • The Bears have the easiest schedule for fantasy RBs remaining for the rest of season. Considering David Montgomery (56% snap share, 15 touches) and Khalil Herbert (41% snap share, 14 touches) split touches nearly 50/50 in their Week 7 victory of the Patriots, Hebert’s a sneaky trade target because he’s not viewed as the team’s starter. Even though he’s been better than Montgomery in virtually every single rushing metric this season while ranking 3rd in yards after contact per attempt. And his 41% snap share was the highest it’s ever been in a game where Montgomery was fully healthy. The snaps, talent and schedule all suggest Herbert’s on the cusp of taking over. I also had to drop him to pick up the Bears DST so I wouldn’t lose my matchup, and that decision will no doubt be my ultimate downfall.

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TIGHT ENDS

Player Routes % of routes run per dropback Targets Target Share Target Rate Per Route Run
Zach Ertz 29 91% 4 14% 14%
Mark Andrews 19 90% 2 13% 11%
T.J. Hockenson 28 88% 5 20% 18%
Travis Kelce 30 86% 8 23% 27%
George Kittle 43 84% 9 20% 21%
Juwan Johnson 41 82% 5 11% 12%
Kyle Pitts 15 79% 5 42% 33%
Evan Engram 33 77% 7 16% 21%
Pat Freiermuth 37 76% 9 21% 24%
Tyler Conklin 24 75% 6 25% 25%
Hayden Hurst 33 73% 8 19% 24%
Austin Hooper 16 73% 3 15% 19%
Cade Otton 37 73% 5 10% 14%
Robert Tonyan 25 71% 4 12% 16%
Greg Dulcich 34 71% 9 20% 26%
Tommy Tremble 17 71% 1 5% 6%
Mike Gesicki 26 68% 7 20% 27%
Foster Moreau 19 68% 5 19% 26%
Gerald Everett 33 58% 9 18% 27%
Dalton Schultz 16 57% 5 20% 31%
Will Dissly 17 57% 4 15% 24%
Noah Fant 17 57% 3 12% 18%
Jordan Akins 23 55% 4 10% 17%
David Njoku 18 53% 7 28% 39%
Armani Rogers 17 49% 3 9% 18%
Harrison Bryant 16 47% 2 8% 13%
C.J. Uzomah 15 47% 2 8% 13%
Brevin Jordan 17 40% 4 10% 24%
Cole Turner 14 40% 2 6% 14%
Chris Myarick 14 38% 2 7% 14%
Kylen Granson 18 38% 1 2% 6%
Ian Thomas 9 38% 1 5% 11%
Chigoziem Okonkwo 8 36% 1 5% 13%
Daniel Bellinger 13 35% 1 3% 8%
Brock Wright 11 34% 4 16% 36%

 

Juwan Johnson (TE- NO)

I hate to toot my own horn, but Juwan Johnson‘s epic Thursday night is the perfect example of correctly evaluating the tight end position. He entered the game with elite numbers regarding snaps played and routes run. Fellow tight end Adam Trautman was out and the Cardinals were the best matchup for TEs. So I was not surprised about Johnson’s impressive performance (5-32-2) on Thursday night. His route participation remained elite (79%) and that role transcended to fantasy production in the plus-matchup. Chase. Routes. Run. At. Tight. End.

Cade Otton (TE – TB)

Cade Otton had more receiving yards than Chris Godwin (64) on just 5 targets. He has an elite role in the offense when Cameron Brate is out and can be trusted at tight end in a pinch. 81% snap share and 73% route participation is nothing to sneeze at. Just keep in mind that Otton was used almost exclusively as a check-down option (-29 air yards) which probably contributed to the lack of targets going to Leonard Fournette.

Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)

Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich turned his elite usage last week into production: 6-51 on nine targets (26% target rate per route run). He can be trusted weekly if you need a tight end. His role carried over from Week 6 as he ran a route on 71% of dropbacks.

Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL)

Tight end Dalton Schultz comes back to life with Dak at QB. 5 catches on 5 targets for 49 yards (20% target share, 33% target rate per route run). And he was able to do it while playing just 65% of the snaps and on a 57% routes run rate. Presuming he’s healthy, those numbers should increase based on his role to open the season. And that should lead to an expanded target share.

HIGH-VALUE TARGETS:

RED-ZONE TARGETS, AIR YARDS AND DEEP TARGETS

Player Air Yards Share Air Yards Deep Catches Deep Targets Red-Zone Targets Red-Zone TDs
Tyler Conklin 42% 45 0 1 0 0
Austin Hooper 34% 43 1 1 0 0
George Kittle 28% 96 1 1 2 1
T.J. Hockenson 27% 39 0 0 0 0
Gerald Everett 26% 80 0 1 2 0
Pat Freiermuth 25% 73 0 0 0 0
Mark Andrews 24% 21 0 0 1 0
Brevin Jordan 22% 51 0 0 2 0
Kyle Pitts 20% 20 0 0 1 0
Noah Fant 19% 39 0 1 0 0
Mike Gesicki 19% 64 0 1 2 0
Tommy Tremble 17% 29 1 1 0 0
Travis Kelce 17% 45 0 0 1 0
Greg Dulcich 16% 76 0 1 0 0
Foster Moreau 16% 29 0 0 0 0
Evan Engram 15% 63 0 0 1 0
Hayden Hurst 14% 51 0 0 1 0
Jordan Akins 13% 31 0 0 0 0
Zach Ertz 13% 28 0 0 1 0
David Njoku 13% 21 0 0 1 0
Isaiah Likely 11% 10 0 0 0 0
Will Dissly 11% 23 0 0 0 0
Cole Turner 11% 19 0 0 1 0
Geoff Swaim 10% 13 0 0 1 0
Robert Tonyan 10% 21 0 0 0 0
Dalton Schultz 9% 25 0 0 1 0
Jody Fortson 8% 22 0 0 0 0
C.J. Uzomah 8% 8 0 0 0 0
Amari Rodgers 7% 12 0 0 0 0
Chris Myarick 6% 12 0 0 0 0
Brock Wright 6% 9 0 0 1 0
Harrison Bryant 6% 10 0 0 0 0
Josh Oliver 6% 5 0 0 1 0
Daniel Bellinger 5% 10 0 0 0 0
Ko Kieft 4% 12 0 0 0 0
Eric Saubert 4% 19 0 0 0 0
Kylen Granson 3% 5 0 0 0 0
Noah Gray 3% 7 0 0 0 0
Jelani Woods 2% 4 0 0 0 0
Juwan Johnson 2% 7 0 0 2 2
Jake Ferguson 2% 5 0 0 0 0
Kyle Rudolph 2% 5 0 0 0 0
Mitchell Wilcox 2% 6 0 0 0 0
Tanner Hudson 1% 2 0 0 0 0
Colby Parkinson 1% 2 0 0 0 0
Eric Tomlinson 1% 4 0 0 0 0
Peyton Hendershot 0% 0 0 0 1 1
Dan Arnold 0% 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Beck 0% -1 0 0 0 0
Connor Heyward -1% -2 0 0 0 0
Chigoziem Okonkwo -1% -1 0 0 0 0
Zach Gentry -2% -6 0 0 0 0
Ian Thomas -3% -6 0 0 0 0
Cade Otton -10% -29 0 0 0 0

 

TOP TAKEAWAYS:

  • Zach Ertz only saw four targets in Week 7, but he maintained his elite role by running a route on 88% of dropbacks. Don’t be concerned about the down game. The Saints have been elite versus fantasy TEs all season.
  • Mark Andrews with the rare goose egg in Week 7, but was on the injury report all week. And after the game Lamar Jackson said the Browns did everything they could to take him away. So it’s a blip on the radar. The 90% route participation was elite and suggests he will be back to form in Week 8. I’d target aggressively if someone thinks this is a trend.
  • Just one target for Tommy Tremble, but he is pulling away as the TE1 in Carolina. 71% route participation and a touchdown scored. Keep tabs on him in deeper formats.
  • Mike Gesicki‘s role dipped slightly from Week 6 to Week 7. 76% route participation fell to 68%…although he saw 7 targets for the second straight week. However, playing alongside two alphas like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill is going to make him tough to trust.
  • Be bearish with Gerald Everett. No Donald Parham Jr. or Josh Palmer in Week 7, but Everett still only ran a route on 58% of dropbacks. With those guys back after the bye week – even with Mike Williams slated to miss time- I wouldn’t feel bad dropping Everett if I have to. His usage has been fringe at best and the Chargers offense has not been as great as we all hoped.
  • David Njoku suffered a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss 2-5 weeks. Earliest he would come back seems like Week 10 after the bye week. With Njoku sidelined, expect an increased workload for Harrison Bryant. He ran a route on 47% of dropbacks in Week 7 and played 57% of the snaps.
  • Tyler Conklin back from the dead? Maybe. With the Jets having so many WR issues, Conklin’s route participation spiked to 75% in Week 7. He also led with a 25% target share. If New York is down Corey Davis next week, I’d expect Conklin to have a solid role.

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