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    Jacob Herlin | Tue, Oct 18th 2022, 12:45pm EDT

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 7 (2022 Fantasy Football)

We’re in the thick of it now. With six weeks of football behind us, we’re just entering the phase where the worst fantasy teams start to give up, and stop competing on the waiver wire. At the same time, this is week 2/8 of byes, so there will be more competition for streamers. The 99%-rostered Bills defense is one of those missing, so that’s at least one team in every league streaming a defense who wasn’t before. That means it’s all the more important to get your waiver claims in on Tuesday, rather than being lazy like me and just taking the best available defense on Thursday afternoon.

We have a few updates to the league’s quarterback landscape, and we actually get to start with good news for once!

  • It’s finally happening – Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is expected to start this week. That means no more targeting Cooper Rush with our fantasy defenses. If anything, the offensive upgrade could give Dallas’s defense – one of the best in the league – more breathing room.
  • Commanders QB Carson Wentz broke his finger last week, and will miss at least 4 weeks after having surgery. Taylor Heinicke, who started most of last season for Washington, will take over, but we will probably also see rookie Sam Howell sometime this season. Heinicke is a downgrade from Wentz from a scoring perspective, but he’s also likely to take fewer sacks. Washington will be an OK, but not amazing, DST target while Heinicke starts. If and when Howell gets the call, I’ll be there starting the opposing defense in fantasy – as I always am when rookie QBs debut.
  • Steelers QB Kenny Pickett suffered a concussion last week. He won’t be able to practice this week, but he could clear protocol in time to start in Week 7. If he doesn’t, Mitch Trubisky will take over. At this point I don’t see Trubisky as all that different from Pickett in terms of their attractiveness as DST targets.
  • The Panthers’ QB situation is complicated. PJ Walker started last week, but left the game with a neck injury, giving way for backup Jacob Eason to play. Walker should be available next week, but both Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are threatening to return from ankle injuries. Apparently they’ll be competing for the job when they do. Right now I think the most likely outcome is another PJ Walker start, but we could see Mayfield, Darnold, or both soon – possibly this week.

Week 7 D/ST Projections

We have four teams on bye this week, but that doesn’t really hurt the streaming landscape because all four missing teams (BUF, LAR, MIN, PHI) are teams we wouldn’t start defenses against anyway. My top streamer is Miami, who are ranked 4th but rostered in only 16% of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. O/U Spread PA Sacks Turnovers TD FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 NE CHI 39.5 -8 15.75 3.3 1.2 0.11 8.17 63%
2 TB @CAR 40.5 -10.5 15 3.0 1.2 0.11 8.15 99%
3 DEN NYJ 40.5 -3 18.75 3.1 1.2 0.11 7.23 66%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
4 MIA PIT 44.5 -7 18.75 2.8 1.3 0.11 6.98 16%
5 JAC NYG 42.5 -3 19.75 2.7 1.2 0.10 6.46 64%
6 BAL CLE 46.5 -6.5 20 2.8 1.1 0.10 6.39 81%
7 LAC SEA 51.5 -6.5 22.5 3.0 1.3 0.11 6.37 58%
8 GB @WAS 41.5 -5.5 18 2.2 1.2 0.10 6.29 91%
9 LV HOU 45.5 -7 19.25 2.3 1.2 0.11 6.27 3%
10 DAL DET 48 -7 20.5 2.5 1.2 0.10 6.12 82%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11 CIN ATL 47.5 -6 20.75 2.4 1.2 0.11 6.12 36%
12 NYJ @DEN 40.5 3 21.75 2.7 1.2 0.10 6.06 3%
13 IND @TEN 42.5 2.5 22.5 2.8 1.2 0.10 6.01 37%
14 TEN IND 42.5 -2.5 20 2.0 1.2 0.10 5.70 8%
15 KC @SF 48.5 -3 22.75 2.5 1.2 0.10 5.61 32%
16 ARI NO 45 -1.5 21.75 2.1 1.2 0.10 5.44 3%
17 NYG @JAC 42.5 3 22.75 2.1 1.2 0.11 5.38 5%
18 WAS GB 41.5 5.5 23.5 2.5 1.1 0.10 5.38 9%
19 ATL @CIN 47.5 6 26.75 2.8 1.2 0.10 5.23 1%
20 NO @ARI 45 1.5 23.25 2.1 1.2 0.10 5.14 42%
21 CLE @BAL 46.5 6.5 26.5 2.5 1.1 0.10 4.90 35%
22 SF KC 48.5 3 25.75 2.0 1.2 0.10 4.58 99%
23 DET @DAL 48 7 27.5 2.3 1.2 0.10 4.52 1%
24 CAR TB 40.5 10.5 25.5 1.7 1.2 0.10 4.40 5%
25 HOU @LV 45.5 7 26.25 1.8 1.2 0.10 4.31 1%
26 SEA @LAC 51.5 6.5 29 2.1 1.2 0.10 4.04 2%
27 CHI @NE 39.5 8 23.75 0.9 1.2 0.10 3.82 28%
28 PIT @MIA 44.5 7 25.75 1.2 1.2 0.10 3.81 23%

Matchups

  1. NE vs CHI: Normally, we like to target offenses that throw a lot, because most defensive fantasy points happen when the QB drops back to pass – all sacks and interceptions, of course, but also a majority of fumbles. The Justin Fields-led Bears are a special case though. The Bears rush on 59% of their plays, which is the highest in the league. Despite that, Fields still leads the league with 3.83 sacks taken per game (tied with Carson Wentz). So we have the second-lowest-scoring (thanks Broncos) offense in the league, with a sky-high sack rate that can only go up if they decide to start trying to win (that is, throwing), visiting the Patriots. It doesn’t get much better than this.
  2. TB @ CAR: The Panthers QB situation is complicated, as discussed above. Right now, my projections are based on the assumption that PJ Walker will start. Honestly though, it doesn’t really matter who starts. Any of the Panthers’ potential QBs would be a good matchup for the Buccaneers’ top-5 defense.
  3. DEN vs NYJ: The 4-2 Jets have shown signs of life, but the Broncos, despite their offensive woes, have one of the best defenses in the league – much better than any the Jets have faced since Zach Wilson took over the starting QB job in Week 4.
  4. MIA vs PIT: Kenny Picket has been starting for the Steelers for three weeks now, but it’s still pretty early to have a good idea of what we should expect from him with respect to sacks and interceptions. A slightly stronger signal is the fact that the Steelers’ scores in that time have been 20, 3 and 20. This is not a high-powered offense. Pickett is in concussion protocol and could miss Week 7. Right now I’m expecting him to play, but if he doesn’t, Mitch Trubisky is the backup. That wouldn’t change my rank much for Miami – if anything, Trubisky might be a slight upgrade.
  5. JAC vs NYG: Don’t looks now, but the Giants are 5-1. They’ve done this without scoring massive amounts of points – their highest is 27. Just like me and you, Vegas doesn’t believe in them – they’re underdogs against the 2-4 Jaguars, with a sub-20 point projection. Add in Daniel Jones‘ penchant for taking stats, and the good – but not great – Jaguars defense is a good – but not great – fantasy play.
  6. BAL vs CLE: Up until last week, the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns haven’t been great for opposing fantasy defenses, despite not being a particularly strong offense. Though 5 weeks, Brissett never threw more than one interception, or took more than two sacks. Last week, the wheels fell off, wherein the Browns scored just 15 points, and Brissett threw two interceptions and took four sacks. A similar performance could be in store again as the Browns visit Baltimore.
  7. LAC vs SEA: The Seahawks have been very up and down this season. They managed 48 points against the Lions, but the Lions happen to have the worst defense in the league. The Seahawks put up just 7 points against the 49ers, but the 49ers happen to have one of the best defenses in the league. The Chargers’ defense is more of the average variety, so they seem like a reasonable – if a bit risky – play.
  8. GB @ WAS: Carson Wentz will be sidelined for several weeks after having finger surgery, and Taylor Heinicke appears to be the interim QB, though we might also see rookie Sam Howell at some point. Heinicke started most of the season for the much-better-named Washington Football Team last year, and was basically average – the team was 7-8 in his games. As usual, it’s worth starting a defense facing a backup, but it’s not the home run that it would be against a worse backup than Heinicke.
  9. LV vs HOU: This is a case of a medium-bad defense facing a very bad offense in the Davis Mills-led Texans. At 3% rostership this is the real “if you can’t find anything better” pick, and you could certainly do worse. With the Raiders you’re hoping for a game script where their pretty solid offense pulls ahead, forcing the Texans to throw more, opening the door to a multi-interception game from Mills.
  10. DAL vs DET: After putting up 45 points against Seattle, the Jared Goff-led Lions got shut out in New England last week. It’s definitely a boom-bust offense, but against a defense as strong as Dallas, bust is significantly more likely. The upside here is a bit limited due to the way fantasy scoring works. Holding an offense to, say, 14 points, is great in the real world, but in fantasy it’s less valuable than an interception. While I don’t expect the Lions to score much, it’s rare to get more than one interception or more than three sacks out of Goff.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.

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