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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 6 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 6 (2022 Fantasy Football)

This week had relatively few injuries by NFL standards, but that doesn’t mean there were zero. Streaming defenses is all about keeping track of the quarterbacks in the league, and who’s worth targeting with fantasy defenses. As such, here’s this weeks round of QB situation updates:

  • Panthers QB Baker Mayfield sustained an ankle injury that will keep him out “at least a couple weeks.” PJ Walker will get the start in his absence. The dysfunctional panthers were a good target for fantasy defenses already, and this just solidifies that status.
  • Broncos QB Russell Wilson was apparently playing with a partially torn lat on Thursday night – an injury that it seems like he’ll be playing with for several weeks. He will still be playing as far as we know, but this is reason to think the dumpster fire will keep burning.
  • Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion last week, and Tua Tagovailoa is still out indefinitely. Bridgwater is likely to play next week, but if he doesn’t, Skylar Thompson is the backup.
  • Dak Prescott is nearing his return for the Cowboys. It’s unknown if that will be this week – it depends on how he does in practice – but I’m operating under the assumption that we’ll get another week of Cooper Rush.

Week 6 D/ST Projections

This is the first week of byes, but it feels like a good streaming week anyway thanks in part to the fact that only one of the missing teams – Houston – is a particularly good DST target. While the two biggest home runs of the week are highly-rostered, there are some good options with more availability, including two of my top 10 teams with under 10% rostership. Those rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. O/U Spread PA Sack Turnovers TD FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 LAR CAR 40.5 -11 14.75 3.1 1.2 0.10 8.26 90%
2 TB @PIT 43.5 -8.5 17.5 3.2 1.4 0.12 7.89 97%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
3 GB NYJ 46 -7 19.5 3.0 1.2 0.10 6.90 94%
4 SF @ATL 43.5 -5.5 19 2.7 1.2 0.10 6.70 99%
5 WAS @CHI 38 1 19.5 2.8 1.2 0.10 6.65 3%
6 BAL @NYG 45 -5 20 2.8 1.2 0.10 6.51 63%
7 LAC DEN 45.5 -5 20.25 2.8 1.2 0.10 6.38 57%
8 CHI WAS 38 -1 18.5 2.4 1.2 0.10 6.28 9%
9 PHI DAL 42.5 -5 18.75 2.5 1.1 0.09 6.16 90%
10 MIN @MIA 45.5 -3 21.25 2.7 1.2 0.10 6.02 74%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11 NO CIN 43.5 1.5 22.5 2.8 1.2 0.10 5.99 49%
12 JAC @IND 42 2 22 2.7 1.2 0.10 5.94 72%
13 ARI @SEA 51.5 -3 24.25 2.7 1.3 0.10 5.82 3%
14 IND JAC 42 -2 20 1.9 1.2 0.10 5.74 33%
15 NE @CLE 42.5 3 22.75 2.7 1.1 0.09 5.70 41%
16 CLE NE 42.5 -3 19.75 2.2 1.2 0.10 5.64 15%
17 CIN @NO 43.5 -1.5 21 2.0 1.2 0.10 5.53 28%
18 NYG BAL 45 5 25 2.5 1.1 0.09 5.14 9%
19 ATL SF 43.5 5.5 24.5 2.2 1.2 0.10 5.06 1%
20 CAR @LAR 40.5 11 25.75 2.2 1.2 0.10 5.01 4%
21 DAL @PHI 42.5 4.5 23.5 2.2 1.0 0.09 4.93 77%
22 MIA MIN 45.5 3 24.25 1.9 1.2 0.10 4.86 39%
23 DEN @LAC 45.5 5 25.25 2.1 1.2 0.10 4.76 75%
24 NYJ @GB 46 7 26.5 2.3 1.1 0.09 4.69 2%
25 KC BUF 54 3 28.5 2.4 1.2 0.10 4.42 39%
26 BUF @KC 54 -3 25.5 1.8 1.2 0.10 4.36 100%
27 SEA ARI 51.5 3 27.25 2.1 1.2 0.10 4.32 4%
28 PIT TB 43.5 8 25.75 0.0 1.2 0.10 2.65 31%

Matchups

  1. LAR vs CAR: The embattled Panthers fired their head coach, and Baker Mayfield will miss at least a couple weeks with a sprained ankle. That means PJ Walker will get the start. For a solid team like the Rams, this is about as good as matchups get.
  2. TB @ PIT: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett had his first career start last week, in about the worst matchup you could imagine against the Bills. It went quite badly, with the team scoring just a field goal. Notably, Pickett attempted a league-leading 52 passes (tied with Brady). High passing rates like that are great for opposing defenses, because a majority of fumbles happen on passing plays (pass attempts or sacks), in addition to all sacks and interceptions, of course. To add to that, Tampa Bay is every bit as difficult a matchup as Buffalo was.
  3. GB vs NYJ: The Jets had an excellent game against Miami last week wherein they scored five rushing touchdowns as a team. That is kind of scary, but Vegas expects the Jets to struggle quite a bit more in Green Bay, and I’m inclined to believe them. I’m generally interested in starting defenses against teams projected for fewer than 20 points, and a big day for sacks and turnovers is still on the table against Zach Wilson, especially if we get a game script where they can’t afford to run so much.
  4. SF @ ATL: Sometimes you have to give the nod to the best defense in the league facing a team that’s just OK like the Marcus Mariota-led Falcons. Last week against a similarly strong Buccaneers defense, Mariota took five sacks, and I think that kind of upside is on the table again. If you’ve been cruising with the 49ers defense all season, you’ll want to find a replacement when they face the Chiefs in Week 7, but that problem is still a week away.
  5. WAS @ CHI: The Justin Fields-led Bears remain a good (but not great) DST target, with Fields taking a top-tier 3.6 sacks per game so far, and the Team peaking at just 23 points. The Commanders have the kind of average defense I’m happy to start in a good matchup, and that’s exactly what this is.
  6. BAL @ NYG: My toxic trait is that I refuse to believe the Giants are good, under any circumstances. 4-1? Doesn’t matter. Two super bowl wins in five years? Still bad. Jokes Aside, despite all the wins, last week was their first time exceeding 21 points this season. Jones has already had two 5-sack games, so that kind of upside is certainly there, even if it’s not every game. The Ravens might not be the defensive powerhouse they’ve been in past years, but they’re definitely still in the category of teams I think can find the upside in this Giants offense.
  7. LAC vs DEN: The 2022 Broncos play football so bad it wraps around and becomes fun to watch again. My only regret is that they didn’t take the field goal and the tie on Thursday night. Until they can right the ship, the Broncos are an every-week target. Russel Wilson has a shoulder injury, but as far as I’m aware he’s going to play through it. If he doesn’t, I don’t think the Broncos move up the rankings much just because I don’t think they can get any worse. If anything, a more conservative “make the backup QB hand it off” playbook might be a bad thing for the Chargers’ defense in fantasy (but not in real life).
  8. CHI vs WAS: This is projected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week at just 38 points. With a narrow 1-point spread, that means both teams are viable as fantasy defenses. The Bears have the benefit of playing at home, and Carson Wentz actually has more sacks so far than Justin Fields, but that’s skewed by taking 9 sacks in one game in Week 3. There is some downside here – we’ve all seen what Wentz can do at his best – but that kind of outcome isn’t particularly likely, so the Bears are still a solid play.
  9. PHI vs DAL: It’s possible that Dak Prescott returns to action this week. My understanding is that that decision depends on how Dak looks in practice. I’m expecting at least one more week of Cooper Rush, and this rank reflects that. If Dak plays I’m no longer interested in the Eagles, but I’m absolutely interested in starting them against Rush.
  10. MIN @ MIA: Tua Tagovailoa is still out indefinitely. Teddy Bridgewater is in concussion protocol, but it seems likely that he’ll clear in time to play in Week 6. If Bridgewater plays – which this projection reflects – the mediocre Vikings defense are an OK, but risky play. If Bridgewater is out and Skylar Thompson starts, the Vikings will rocket into my top 5.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.

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